1. Future demand for energy services through a quantitative approach of lifestyles
- Author
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Nadia Maïzi, Edi Assoumou, Thomas Le Gallic, Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées (CMA), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), and Chaire MPDD
- Subjects
Lifestyles Energy system Energy demand Foresight Modelling Transition ,Engineering ,020209 energy ,Energy (esotericism) ,02 engineering and technology ,010501 environmental sciences ,Energy transition ,7. Clean energy ,01 natural sciences ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,11. Sustainability ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,Set (psychology) ,Spatial planning ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Civil and Structural Engineering ,Scope (project management) ,business.industry ,Mechanical Engineering ,[SDE.PLT]Environmental Sciences/domain_sde.plt ,Environmental resource management ,Building and Construction ,Environmental economics ,[SDE.PLAN]Environmental Sciences/domain_sde.plan ,Pollution ,Futures studies ,General Energy ,13. Climate action ,Agriculture ,Sustainability ,business - Abstract
International audience; Among the tools and processes that are used to inform decisions makers on the long-term challenges raised by energy transition, numerical models are at the forefront. Whether led at the global, continental, country or local level, they help projecting the future operational conditions of our energy systems. However the possibility of addressing the sustainability challenge by changes in our lifestyles rather than technical solutions often remains outside the scope of such models whereas lifestyles contain a set of key determinants of mobility, housing, spatial planning or the organization terms of the productive sectors (industry, agriculture, services). Energy is not consumed for itself and understanding how the future demand of energy services could be framed is an important issue. This paper makes proposals to improve the consideration of lifestyles in the quantitative foresight exercises. Our methodology includes the development of a statistical model of the dynamic of changes in lifestyle patterns to derive energy service demands. The use of this model provides a more coherent framework for the formulation of lifestyle change scenarios. A set of three lifestyles anticipated for France are then designed and discussed up to 2072.
- Published
- 2017
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