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The building sector is critical in climate change mitigation by reducing its energy consumption. At the same time, warming climate requires adaptation measures from buildings, making it necessary to study the future thermal energy demand of buildings. This paper studies the impact of climate change on the thermal energy demand of buildings in a heating dominated climate of Finland, under "representative concentration pathway" (RCP) climate scenarios in near- (2030), medium- (2050) and long-term (2080) horizon. Additionally, the impact of the thermal performance level of the buildings is investigated. The thermal energy demand calculation is based on overarching standards from the European "energy performance of buildings" directive. The weather scenarios present both typical and extreme weather years, applied through morphing and future weather data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The results show that annual thermal energy demand in Finland in 2080 can decrease up to 74.6 kWh/m 2. In addition, the decrease in heating demand will be higher than the increase in cooling demand. Cooling can become the dominant peak in long-term evaluations, especially in South Finland (Vantaa) with passive buildings under RCP8.5 climate scenario. Renovation is the most efficient action to decrease energy intensity, the earliest it is done the better. [Display omitted] • Thermal energy demand of detached houses in Finland is studied under RCP climate scenarios. • Thermal energy demand is expected to decrease in Finland in long-term. • RCP scenario affects when the highest average annual thermal energy change occurs. • Cooling can become the dominant thermal peak demand source for passive buildings. • Renovating building to newer standards remains beneficial, though less with time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Currently, the economic performance of rooftop photovoltaics (PVs) is predominantly evaluated using the levelized cost of electricity approach. Some researchers have argued that rooftop PVs should be viewed as an investment, where performance is evaluated using relevant investment analysis methods. This article argues that the proper economic value and climate mitigation potential of rooftop PVs can be assessed only if the market mechanisms and characteristics of the underlying building stock are understood better. This paper utilises a customer-driven investment model to examine the feasible market potential of rooftop PVs in an urban environment. The economic returns of PV installations are calculated for 89,000 buildings separately and by comparing them to the underlying spatial property returns, the profitability and adoption years of rooftop PVs for in different locations are estimated. Implications for CO2 emissions and the impact of the net metering (NM) policy on the rate of adoption are calculated. The results imply that even in Finland rooftop solar PVs are already profitable for a third of the residential building stock and will be profitable for a fourth of the commercial building stock by 2025. Finally, the NM could increase substantially the diffusion rate of solar PVs in the coming years. Highlights • Real estate economics provides a new perspective to estimate the diffusion of rooftop PVs. • In the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, rooftop PVs are already profitable for a third of the residential building stock. • A fourth of the commercial building stock will be profitable by 2025. • Net metering (NM) could increase the diffusion of rooftop PVs rapidly. • The benefits of implementing NM seem to outweigh the costs of implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU's energy sector depends heavily on fossil fuels, which contribute to climate change. This is why climate mitigation targets for energy production have been set, including an increased biomass use requirement. In Finland, biomass is commonly utilised but its capital, Helsinki, is still dependent on fossil fuels. With the ambition of becoming climate neutral by 2050, Helsinki is testing, inter alia, low-share wood pellet and coal co-combustion in a CHP (combined heat and power) plant. The objectives of this paper were to assess the net environmental impacts of the co-combustion and changes in urban air quality connected to pellet transport, and to identify environmental hotspots relevant to possible future higher-share co-combustion. The applied methods were screening LCA (life cycle assessment) and fine particle dispersion modelling. The results prove that low-share wood pellet co-combustion in CHP production leads to net environmental impact reductions and does not deteriorate air quality in the urban environment. If higher-share co-combustion were to be implemented, the environmental hotspots to focus on would be the operational issues of a power plant and the origin and sustainability aspects of wood pellet production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]