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Deep decarbonization scenarios indicate a decline in fossil oil usage in the coming decades, meaning that oil refineries must adapt. This work evaluates the refining sector in deep decarbonization pathways using Brazil as a case study. BLUES – a national integrated assessment model – is employed to investigate the evolution of the sector in mitigation scenarios until 2050. The production of feedstocks for the petrochemical industry, of fuels for the aviation and maritime sectors, and biomass co-processing are analyzed. These strategies may bring resilience to the sector. The potential for avoiding emissions in refineries' operations is also explored. Findings show that the refining sector operates at 70% and 74% of its nameplate capacity in decarbonization scenarios. These results are used as the starting point for a detailed analysis of Brazilian refineries. Results show that the employment of refineries' assets for purposes aligned with decarbonization targets, along with emissions mitigation in the sector, reduces risks of carbon lock-in and of asset stranding. To our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates emissions mitigation in the refining sector and also uses an integrated assessment model to investigate oil refining repurposing and co-processing options in the context of decarbonization. • The refining sector is evaluated using an integrated assessment model for Brazil. • A comparison is made between business- as -usual and decarbonization scenarios. • Opportunities for refineries' assets and mitigation measures are explored. • Opportunities for refineries depend on their location and type of processing units. • Risks of carbon lock-in and asset stranding can be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Integrated assessment models are extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as contribute to international scientific assessments. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of techno-economic assumptions in the electricity sector among fifteen different global and national integrated assessment models. Particular focus is given to six major economies in the world: Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and the US. The comparison reveals that techno-economic characteristics are quite different across integrated assessment models, both for the base year and future years. It is, however, important to recognize that techno-economic assessments from the literature exhibit an equally large range of parameters as the integrated assessment models reviewed. Beyond numerical differences, the representation of technologies also differs among models, which needs to be taken into account when comparing numerical parameters. While desirable, it seems difficult to fully harmonize techno-economic parameters across a broader range of models due to structural differences in the representation of technology. Therefore, making techno-economic parameters available in the future, together with of the technology representation as well as the exact definitions of the parameters should become the standard approach as it allows an open discussion of appropriate assumptions. Highlights • Comparison of technology representation and techno-economic parameters of 15 IAMs. • Structural differences in representing technology in IAMs are identified. • Methods of projecting techno-economic parameters differ across IAMs. • Strict harmonization of techno-economic parameters across models is difficult. • Recommendation to publish techno-economic parameters and technology representation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work evaluates implications of incorporating LCA-GHG (life cycle assessment of GHG emissions) into the optimisation of the power generation mix of Brazil through 2050, under baseline and low-carbon scenarios. Furthermore, this work assesses the impacts of enacting a tax on LCA-GHG emissions as a strategy to mitigate climate change. To this end, a model that integrates regional life cycle data with optimised energy scenarios was developed using the MESSAGE-Brazil integrated model. Following a baseline trend, the power sector in Brazil would increasingly rely on conventional coal technologies. GHG emissions from the power sector in 2050 are expected to increase 15-fold. When enacting a tax on direct-carbon emissions, advanced coal and onshore wind technologies become competitive. GHG emissions peak at 2025 and decrease afterwards, reaching an emission level 40% lower in 2050 than that of 2010. However, if impacts were evaluated through the entire life cycle of power supply systems, LCA-GHG emissions would be 50% higher in 2050 than in 2010. This is due to loads associated with the construction of plant infrastructures and extraction and processing of fossil fuel resources. Thus, taxes might not be as effective in tackling GHG emissions as shown by past studies, if they are only applied to direct emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to provide an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) perspective of the production and distribution of alternative marine fuels in Brazilian ports, considering the International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission reduction target for 2050 (IMO2050). Although other mitigation measures are available, it is likely that alternative fuels will be required, implying additional costs and entailing relevant impacts on other energy chains and land use. Hence, the national IAM BLUES model is adapted to represent the relevant part of the international shipping sector. A set of scenarios is developed considering different fuel alternatives, demand assumptions and national mitigation targets. Findings show that taking into account emissions of CO 2 only or of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) within the IMO strategy significantly impacts the optimal technological portfolio. Furthermore, achieving the IMO2050 goal without considering a national decarbonization strategy may result in potential spillovers. The intense use of the energy sector could partially compromise the gains obtained by maritime decarbonization or even surpass it. Therefore, only an integrated mitigation strategy would lead to more effective decarbonization of the entire marine supply. • There is no single optimal portfolio of alternative fuels for shipping. • Brazil can fulfil any low-carbon marine fuel strategy. • Marine fuels should be part of all national decarbonization strategies. • The decarbonization of shipping should be part of Brazil's deep mitigation pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]