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This paper proposes a new hybrid season specific approach to incorporate the seasonality effect in short term load forecasting (STLF). A new season specific similarity concept (SSSC) is utilized to perceive the season specific meteorological necessities (seasonality effect) and integrates them in STLF process. The proposed approach is based on firefly algorithm (FA), support vector machine (SVM) and the new SSSC. The study is conducted in Assam, India and the proposed approach is designed to forecast load during different seasonal native meteorological conditions. Four case studies in four different seasons of a calendar year are carried out. The consideration of seasonality effect is found essential for a precise STLF under diverse seasonal meteorological conditions. This is because the electric load is influenced by different meteorological variables depending on different seasons. The numerical application of the proposed approach demonstrates higher forecasting accuracy in comparison to traditional approach of integrating temperature into STLF without considering any seasonality effect. To uphold the efficacy of the proposed approach, forecasting results are also compared with another traditional approach of integrating multiple meteorological variables into STLF without any seasonal considerations. Hence, the robustness of proposed approach is approved by its superior forecasting ability in all cases. • Offers a season specific approach for short term load forecasting in the study area. • Evaluation of season specific effective meteorological variables on load demand. • Proposes new season specific similarity concept to integrate the seasonality effect. • Integration of ineffective meteorological variable misguide the forecasting process. • The results affirm the superiority of the proposed approach in load forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In today's restructuring electricity market, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is an essential tool for the electricity utilities to predict future scenario and act towards a profitable policy. The electric load demand is highly influenced by the thermal inertia due to the climatic factors. These influential climatic factors are different in different regions. Therefore, it is necessary to have a region specific STLF model for load forecasting under regional climatic conditions. This paper proposes a regional hybrid STLF model utilizing SVM with a new technique, called grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA), to evaluate its suitable parameters. This study is carried out in Assam, a state of India and proposed GOA-SVM model is targeted for forecasting the load under local climatic conditions. The proposed model uses the similar day approach (SDA) to satisfy the regional climatic requirements. The results of the proposed model show better accuracy comparing to results generated with classical STLF model of incorporating temperature universally as the only climatic factor. To further affirm the efficacy of the proposed model, same inputs are delivered in two alternative hybrid models, namely GA-SVM (GA with SVM) and PSO-SVM (PSO with SVM). The results indicate that the proposed model outperforms the other hybrid models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmentally conscious manufacturing (ECM) has become an important strategy and proactive approach for the iron and steel sector of India to produce environment friendly and to reduce manufacturing cost. There are several environmentally conscious manufacturing indicators to evaluate ECM programs. Among those indicators, energy consumption and greenhouse (GHG) emission may be considered critical environmentally conscious manufacturing indicators (CECMI) for Indian iron and steel sector. This paper focuses on forecasting energy consumption and GHG emission for a pig iron manufacturing organization of India because the managers are interested to know the current and future trends of these indicators for better environmental policy. For forecasting purpose, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is applied to reveal that ARIMA (1,0,0) × (0,1,1) is the best fitted model for energy consumption. Regarding GHG emission, ARIMA (0,1,4) × (0,1,1) is the best fitted model. In both cases, the forecasts resemble those of the seasonal random trend model, however they appear smoother because the seasonal pattern and the trend are efficiently averaged for energy consumption and as well as GHG emission. Selection of the correct ARIMA models for these indicators will help in accurate forecasting in order to achieve better environmental management practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Day-ahead load forecasting plays a crucial role in operation and management of power systems. Weather conditions have a significant impact on daily load profile, hence, it follows an almost similar pattern within a season. However, it varies markedly across the seasons. Existing literature on load forecasting adopts a very casual approach in considering the seasonality, based on either calendar month or some meteorological parameter, which is inconsistent and inaccurate, especially during transition periods, thus leading to high forecasting errors. This paper proposes a novel seasonal segmentation approach for day-ahead load forecasting that uses multiple bidirectional Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks. An index has been derived from various weather parameters that govern the selection of seasonal models for forecasting purposes. Weighted output from multiple seasonal models is also possible in special cases for better forecasting accuracy. The proposed seasonal segmentation approach avoids the need for frequent model retraining and results in a better forecast accuracy with a relatively simple LSTM structure. The performance of the proposed method has been validated and compared on the actual load data of Madhya Pradesh state (MP), India. The improved results suggest that the proposed approach can be applied reliably for load scheduling applications. • An encoder-decoder Bi-LSTM model with attention is developed to train the models. • An adaptive method for accurate identification of seasonal duration is proposed. • An index based selective and weighted method is developed for optimized forecasts. • Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is used to adaptively select the forecast models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate and objective prediction of coal consumption is important for stabilizing the coal market, ensuring the operating results of coal enterprises. This paper starts with the background value of the traditional GM(1,1) model, extends the model by the extrapolation method, proposes an optimized grey prediction model, deduces the time response equation, studies the relationship between model parameters and model accuracy. Then the model is optimized by simulated annealing algorithm. Three cases verify the validity of model, the results show that its lowest prediction error percentage is 3.1286%, which is better than two classical grey prediction models, Finally, the model is applied to forecast the next five years' consumption of China, India and the United States, which are the world's top three coal consumers. The errors of the proposed models are all about 5%, which is obviously better than the comparison models. The results show that coal consumption in China and India will continue to rise over the next five years, while the United States will decline. These findings are consistent with the current development of the three countries; therefore, the optimized prediction model can effectively predict the coal consumption of the three countries. • The highlights of this article are as follows: • An optimized grey prediction model that can be applied to various data situations is proposed. • The traditional GM(1,1) model is optimized by a simulated annealing algorithm. • The validity of the model is verified by theoretical deduction and case analysis. • The generality and wide applicability of the proposed method are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]