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Abstract This paper presents a new approach to incorporate climate damages in the BAU emissions baselines. The shared socio-economic pathways framework is used to inform country-level changes in the mean surface temperature for the climate projections associated with each scenario. The temperature changes are used to calculate the economic damages using empirical estimates of climate effects on GDP growth. Finally, an energy system model is used under the original socio-economic assumptions and the climate-damaged assumptions, illustrating the indirect effect of climate change in a country-level energy system. Mexico was chosen to exemplify this method. The results show a reduction of energy access and a slow down of technological transition in the energy sector under climate-damaged projections. It is concluded that greenhouse gas mitigation goals should be re-calibrated under cost-benefit analysis that takes into account the damages associated with future climates consistent with the baseline. Thus, the nationally determined contributions that state the emission goals of many countries could be closer to limit the temperature to 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Highlights • Climate change impacts on energy systems are assessed via climatically-damaged GDP. • New business as usual scenarios are computed accounting for its associated climates. • Under new BAU, energy production and society's welfare decreases. • Greenhouse gases mitigation goals should be re-calibrated under new BAU. • The recalibration could enable accomplishment of Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Japan is the sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter in 2016 and plays an important role to attain the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement. One of the key policy issues in Japan's energy and environmental policy arena is the energy system transition to achieve 80% emissions reduction in 2050, a current policy goal set in 2016. To contribute to the ongoing policy debate, this paper focuses on energy-related CO 2 emissions and analyzes such decarbonization scenarios that are consistent with the government goals. We employ six energy-economic and integrated assessment models to reveal decarbonization challenges in the energy system. The modeling results show that Japan's mitigation scenarios are characterized by high marginal costs of abatement. They also suggest that the industrial sector is likely to have a large final energy share and significant residual emissions under the 80% reduction scenario, though it is generally thought that the transport sector would have large decarbonization challenges. The present findings imply that not only energy policy but also industrial policy may be relevant to the long-term environmental target. Given the high marginal costs exceeding those of negative emissions technologies that could place a cost ceiling, further model development would be crucial. Highlights • We analyze the energy system scenarios to achieve 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. • We employ six integrated assessment models to reveal decarbonization challenges in the energy system. • The model results show that the industrial sector has a large final energy share and significant residual carbon dioxide emissions under the 80% reduction scenario. • We also show that Japan's mitigation scenarios are accompanied with high marginal costs of abatement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Energy scenarios provide guidance to energy policy, not least by presenting decarbonisation pathways for climate change mitigation. We review such scenarios for the example of Germany 2050, with a focus on the decarbonisation of heat generation and road transport. In this context, we characterize the role of renewable electricity and contrast two rivalling narratives: direct and indirect electrification. On the one hand, electricity directly provides heat and transport, using electric heat pumps, electric heaters, and battery electric vehicles. On the other hand, electricity, heat, and transport are indirectly linked, using gas heat pumps, gas heaters, fuel cell electric vehicles, and internal combustion engine vehicles, in combination with power-to-gas and power-to-liquid processes. To reach climate policy targets, our findings imply that energy stakeholders must (1) plan for the significant additional demand for renewable electricity for heat and road transport, (2) pave the way for system-friendly direct heat electrification, (3) be aware of technological uncertainties in the transport sector, (4) clarify the vision for decarbonisation, particularly for road transport, and (5) use holistic and more comparable scenario frameworks. Highlights • In the scenarios reviewed, GHG emission reduction targets drive electrification. • If targets are met by 2050, 40–100% of heat and car transport will be electrified. • The electricity consumption of heat and transport will increase to 400–800 TWh. • Heat generation, at least in the building sector, favours direct electrification. • Preferable electrification paths and technologies for road transport are unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the social costs and benefits of potential configurations of electric vehicle deployment, including and excluding vehicle-to-grid. To fully explore the benefits and costs of different electric vehicle pathways, four different scenarios are devised with both today's and 2030 electricity grid in Denmark. These scenarios combine different levels of electric vehicle implementation and communication ability, i.e. smart charging or full bi-directionality, and then paired with different levels of future renewable energy implementation. Then, the societal costs of all scenarios are calculated, including carbon and health externalities to find the least-cost mix of electric vehicles for society. The most cost-effective penetration of electric vehicles in the near future is found to be 27%, increasing to 75% by 2030. This would equate to a $34 billion reduction to societal costs in 2030, a decrease of 30% compared to business as usual. This represents a projected annual savings per vehicle of $1200 in 2030. However, current vehicle capital cost differences, a lack of willingness to pay for electric vehicles, and consumer discount rates are substantial barriers to electric vehicle deployment in Denmark in the near term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local climate action is not only a domain of large cities, but also smaller urban areas that increasingly address climate change mitigation in their policy. The Danish municipality of Helsingør can achieve a substantial CO 2 emissions reduction by transforming its heat supply and deploying heat savings. In this paper, we model the heating system of Helsingør, assess it from a simple socio- and private-economic perspective, develop future scenarios, and conduct an iterative process to derive a cost-optimal mix between district heating, individual heating and heat savings. The results show that in 2030 it is cost-optimal to reduce the heating demand by 20–39% by implementing heat savings, to deploy 32%–41% of district heating and to reduce heating-related CO 2 emissions by up to 95% in comparison to current emissions. In 2050, the cost-optimal share of district heating in Helsingør increases to between 38 and 44%. The resulting average heating costs and CO 2 emissions are found to be sensitive to biomass and electricity price. Although the findings of the study are mainly applicable for Helsingør, the combined use of the Least Cost Tool and modelling with energyPRO is useful in planning of heating and/or cooling supply for different demand configurations, geographical region and scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new method for incorporating short-term temporal variability of both power demand and VRE (variable renewables) into long-term energy-economy models: the RLDC approach. The core of the implementation is a representation of RLDCs (residual load duration curves), which change endogenously depending on the share and mix of VRE. The approach captures major VRE integration challenges and the energy system's response to growing VRE shares without a considerable increase of numerical complexity. The approach also allows for an endogenous representation of power-to-gas storage and the simultaneous optimization of long-term investment and short-term dispatch decisions of non-VRE plants. As an example, we apply the RLDC approach to REMIND-D, a long-term energy-economy model of Germany, which was based on the global model REMIND-R 1.2. Representing variability results in significantly more non-VRE capacity and reduces the generation of VRE in 2050 by about one-third in baseline and ambitious mitigation scenarios. Explicit modeling of variability increases mitigation costs by about one fifth, but power-to-gas storage can alleviate this increase by one third. Implementing the RLDC approach in a long-term energy-economy model would allow improving the robustness and credibility of scenarios results, such as mitigation costs estimates and the role of VRE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As forecasted by the International Energy Agency Energy Technology Perspectives baseline scenario, the largest increment in LDV (light-duty vehicles) stock, travel demand and transport sector energy consumption will take place in the developing world. In the developing countries where the import of used vehicles is allowed, a considerable portion of the LDV stock increment will be realized with used vehicles. In this paper, the analytical framework for assessment of climate change mitigation potential of transport sector in developing countries is adapted in order to incorporate the expected vehicle fleet increase with used vehicles. The evaluation of appropriate mitigation strategies is performed using the GHG Costing Model (GACMO), which compares each mitigation option with the BAU (business-as-usual) option and determines its environmental effectiveness (t CO2 reduced) and economic effectiveness (US$/t CO2 reduced). The adapted analytical framework is applied on the case of transport sector of Macedonia, evaluating appropriate options inline with five mitigation strategies: improvement of vehicle fleet, introduction of low carbon fuels, improvement of travel behaviour, advancement of vehicle equipment and improvement of driver behaviour. The resulting marginal cost curve for the year 2020 indicates a total achievable reduction of 22% with respect to BAU GHG transport sector emissions, with bulk of it at relatively high specific costs of around 90 US$/t CO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]