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The building sector is critical in climate change mitigation by reducing its energy consumption. At the same time, warming climate requires adaptation measures from buildings, making it necessary to study the future thermal energy demand of buildings. This paper studies the impact of climate change on the thermal energy demand of buildings in a heating dominated climate of Finland, under "representative concentration pathway" (RCP) climate scenarios in near- (2030), medium- (2050) and long-term (2080) horizon. Additionally, the impact of the thermal performance level of the buildings is investigated. The thermal energy demand calculation is based on overarching standards from the European "energy performance of buildings" directive. The weather scenarios present both typical and extreme weather years, applied through morphing and future weather data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The results show that annual thermal energy demand in Finland in 2080 can decrease up to 74.6 kWh/m 2. In addition, the decrease in heating demand will be higher than the increase in cooling demand. Cooling can become the dominant peak in long-term evaluations, especially in South Finland (Vantaa) with passive buildings under RCP8.5 climate scenario. Renovation is the most efficient action to decrease energy intensity, the earliest it is done the better. [Display omitted] • Thermal energy demand of detached houses in Finland is studied under RCP climate scenarios. • Thermal energy demand is expected to decrease in Finland in long-term. • RCP scenario affects when the highest average annual thermal energy change occurs. • Cooling can become the dominant thermal peak demand source for passive buildings. • Renovating building to newer standards remains beneficial, though less with time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and energy crises have increasingly impeded the sustainable development of society and economy. With an accelerated process of urbanization and improved standards of living, China has become the largest carbon emitter in the world and therefore has great responsibility and great potential to mitigate global carbon emissions. Accordingly, as the largest source of emissions in China, Chinese buildings should also decrease carbon emissions towards this goal. However, until now, there has been no clear and comprehensive understanding of the carbon emissions in this sector. To fill this gap, we survey the current and future situation. Firstly, we estimate the controlled ceiling of building carbon emission, splitting from the overall reduction goal in China. Then we develop a comprehensive carbon-calculating methodology, the China Building Carbon Emissions Model, using a bottom-up approach, and assess the building carbon emissions based on official statistics. On the basis of that, scenario analysis is used to predict the future trend of carbon emissions in China's building sector. According to our analysis, it is critical to simultaneously control floor space, energy consumption and energy structure to limit the growth of carbon emissions in the building sector. Finally, some relative policy suggestions are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building energy use is becoming increasingly important in China. Despite a rapid growth in recent years, energy use intensity in China is still relatively low compared to other advanced economies; thus, there is still substantial room for it to increase as living standards and industrial services are improved. It is therefore important to focus on the future development of building energy use by considering new trends in the building and energy sectors, as well as the role of occupant behavior. This study uses the China Building Energy Model (CBEM) to model China's building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 for different scenarios based on these considerations. The results indicate that building energy use will be 80% higher than the current situation if the strategies of the 13th Five-Year Plan are maintained and approximately 10% higher if stronger strategies toward energy efficiency are employed. Carbon emissions are predicted to peak around 2020 to 2035. The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors are also discussed. This research suggests that, through the use of suitable strategies and policies, energy use and carbon emissions in China's building sector can achieve the combined goals of energy revolution and climate change mitigation. • China's building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 were modeled. • China's building energy use will be 10%–80% higher under different scenarios. • The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors were discussed. • China's building sector is able to develop sustainably with suitable strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat is a growing concern in cities around the word, especially in the face of climate change. Because buildings are an important component of the built environment vis-à-vis both energy use and heat resiliency in cities, we explored their climate mitigation and adaptation potential. Specifically, we investigated how design decisions interact with regard to three heat-related factors—namely, energy use/CO 2 emissions, passive survivability, and heat rejection to the urban climate. We selected an archetypical building as our test case, created various design permutations, and used whole-building simulations to analyze their performance. Our simulations show that permutations of the building with a smaller carbon footprint also emit less heat to ambient air and had a better passive survivability. However, we also noted potential trade-offs (e.g., where ventilation is inadequate, increasing insulation levels for energy efficiency may hurt passive survivability). Based on our findings, we argue that, at least at a policy level, it is imperative to take advantage of the synergies, and their collective benefits. Moreover, building regulations or incentive programs should look beyond energy as the sole performance metric of interest and consider passive survivability as well as thermal interactions with urban climate. Image 1 • Buildings can improve urban heat resiliency via three different mechanisms. • We simulated all three in 1300 permutations of a multi-family residential building. • Results show a synergy; buildings with passive survivability emit less GHG & heat. • Trade-offs also exist between climate adaptation & mitigation and should be avoided. • The resiliency measures tested increase costs at the individual building level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]