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Deep decarbonization scenarios indicate a decline in fossil oil usage in the coming decades, meaning that oil refineries must adapt. This work evaluates the refining sector in deep decarbonization pathways using Brazil as a case study. BLUES – a national integrated assessment model – is employed to investigate the evolution of the sector in mitigation scenarios until 2050. The production of feedstocks for the petrochemical industry, of fuels for the aviation and maritime sectors, and biomass co-processing are analyzed. These strategies may bring resilience to the sector. The potential for avoiding emissions in refineries' operations is also explored. Findings show that the refining sector operates at 70% and 74% of its nameplate capacity in decarbonization scenarios. These results are used as the starting point for a detailed analysis of Brazilian refineries. Results show that the employment of refineries' assets for purposes aligned with decarbonization targets, along with emissions mitigation in the sector, reduces risks of carbon lock-in and of asset stranding. To our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates emissions mitigation in the refining sector and also uses an integrated assessment model to investigate oil refining repurposing and co-processing options in the context of decarbonization. • The refining sector is evaluated using an integrated assessment model for Brazil. • A comparison is made between business- as -usual and decarbonization scenarios. • Opportunities for refineries' assets and mitigation measures are explored. • Opportunities for refineries depend on their location and type of processing units. • Risks of carbon lock-in and asset stranding can be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The five Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden have aggressive climate and energy policies in place and are largely on track in their decarbonisation of electricity, heat, and buildings. Transportation and mobility, however, remains a pressing challenge. This study asks: what are the greatest national and regional transport challenges facing Nordic countries? To provide an answer, the authors conducted 227 semi-structured interviews with participants from 201 institutions across seventeen cities within the Nordic region. Those interviewed represent a diverse array of stakeholders involved with transport technology, policy and practice. Although respondents identified 44 distinct transport challenges, the fossil fuel intensity of transport was by far the most frequently mentioned by more than two-fifths (42%) of the expert sample. Five other challenges were also mentioned the most frequently by respondents: long travel distances (17%), the state of public transport infrastructure (16%), congestion (15%), population density (10%), and electrification of transport (10%). Interestingly, items such as costs and affordability, energy or transport efficiency, consumer knowledge and awareness, and automobile accidents were mentioned by only 3% (or less). The article concludes by what this heterogeneity and prioritization of challenges means for future Nordic research and policy. Highlights • The five Nordic countries have not made substantial progress in decarbonizing transportation and mobility. • What are the greatest national and regional transport challenges facing Nordic countries? • Fossil fuel intensity of transport was by far the most frequently mentioned challenge among expert interviews. • Long travel distance, infrastructure and congestion were depicted as challenges. • Population density and electrification of transport were also mentioned as challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phasing-out fossil fuels is key to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Recent studies indicated huge amounts of unextracted oil resources in deep mitigation scenarios. However, crude oil heterogeneity and related refining yields have been overlooked. The same holds for the impact of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and sequestration technologies on stranded oil resources, and the pace of crude oil extraction in different world regions in scenarios with and without average global surface temperature overshoot for the 2020–2100 period. This study uses a global Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to assess the impact of considering such complexities when running full-century and peak budget carbon scenarios. When "turning off" the detailed oil quality module of this IAM, an overproduction of crude oil with a smaller throughput of oil refineries was found, as the model simplified the oil supply-demand balance. "Turning on" the detailed oil module and simulating the energy-land nexus showed that CDR allowed the remaining use of oil in hard-to-abate sectors, while refineries were better adjusted to oil supply. African and Latin American regions produced more oil before 2050 in the full-century-budget scenario than in the peak budget scenario. This has implications for just transition, as these regions usually prefer anticipating rents. • Phasing-out fossil fuels and CDR options are key to limiting global warming. • Crude oil quality matters to estimate stranded oil resources. • Climate ambitions and negative emissions affect just transition. • The distribution of unextracted oil resources differs regionally. • Temperature overshoot allows some developing regions to anticipate oil revenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This study uses a hybrid Life Cycle Assessment approach to evaluate the environmental impacts of large-scale deployment of Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) in coal and natural gas based electricity generation, based on IEA scenarios. For the Baseline scenario, all impact categories would increase 2–3-fold in 2050 from 2005 levels. Green House Gas (GHG) emissions are found to decrease by ∼40% in ACTmap scenario and by ∼75% in more CCS-intensive BLUEmap scenario. These climate mitigation scenarios also show significantly reduced impacts of acidification, particulate matter formation and human toxicity, suggesting the existence of co-benefits. For eutrophication, all scenarios indicate substantial increases, but the increases are largest in the Baseline scenario. For photochemical oxidant formation, only the mitigation scenarios manage to stabilize this impact from fossil fuel based power production. This study does not assess the impact of alternative power generation or energy efficiency technology that replaces part of the fossil fuel power in the mitigation scenarios. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]