Search

The EU's energy sector depends heavily on fossil fuels, which contribute to climate change. This is why climate mitigation targets for energy production have been set, including an increased biomass use requirement. In Finland, biomass is commonly utilised but its capital, Helsinki, is still dependent on fossil fuels. With the ambition of becoming climate neutral by 2050, Helsinki is testing, inter alia, low-share wood pellet and coal co-combustion in a CHP (combined heat and power) plant. The objectives of this paper were to assess the net environmental impacts of the co-combustion and changes in urban air quality connected to pellet transport, and to identify environmental hotspots relevant to possible future higher-share co-combustion. The applied methods were screening LCA (life cycle assessment) and fine particle dispersion modelling. The results prove that low-share wood pellet co-combustion in CHP production leads to net environmental impact reductions and does not deteriorate air quality in the urban environment. If higher-share co-combustion were to be implemented, the environmental hotspots to focus on would be the operational issues of a power plant and the origin and sustainability aspects of wood pellet production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the aim to meet customers diverse energy needs by an economical and ecological means, integrated energy system has become a popular choice. Amongst various integrated energy system coupling configurations, individual heating infrastructure entails painstaking attention due to rapid expansion. Individual heating network plays a massive role in carbonizing the atmosphere as traditionally individual heating demands are fulfilled by fossil fuel-fired (natural gas and coal) boilers. Recently, trend is heading towards the integration of energy efficient technologies like micro combined heat and power and heat pumps to replace fossil fuel boilers. However, individual heating performance evaluation is generally investigated by energy analysis that employs only the first law of thermodynamics, thereby exergy analysis assessment and its comparison with energy analysis become noteworthy to measure actual performance. In this work, energy and exergy analysis of the individual heating network of China for the year 2030 is performed under the framework of both laws of thermodynamics. The proposed work includes various technological options like Hydrogen fired micro combined heat and power, natural gas fired micro combined heat and power and heat pumps to replace the fossil fuel boilers intending to attain an economically viable and carbon-free environment. At first, energy and exergy efficiencies of the aforementioned heat producing components are computed and afterwards EnergyPLAN technical simulation strategy is employed to evaluate performance in terms of costs, CO 2 emissions and primary energy supply. Subsequently, a comparison of both analysis is provided in order to present the difference between the two analysis which substantiates that exergy analysis provides inferior results than energy analysis as depicted in case 3 where heat pumps inclusion appears to be the most decarbonized alternative for energy analysis but corroborates vice versa for exergy analysis. However, exergy analysis complements the energy analysis that helps evaluating the actual performance of system in relation to climate change mitigation and cost-effectiveness. • Energy and exergy analysis of individual heating network of China is performed. • Economical and decarbonized environment is proposed. • Exergy analysis results are inferior to energy analysis. • Heat Pump is considered worse alternative according to exergy analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional rice-wheat cropping system (RWCS) in western Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) is carbon and energy intensive. A field experiment was conducted to evaluate energy budgeting, carbon footprints (CF) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from RWCS under long-term tillage and residue management practices. Experiment consisted six treatment combination of tillage [conventional tillage (CT), reduced tillage (RT) and zero tillage (ZT)] and residue [with residue (+R) and without residue (–R)] namely (i) CT-R (conventional farmers' practice), (ii) CT + R, (iii) RT-R, (iv) RT + R, (v) ZT-R and (vi) ZT + R. Energy consumption ranged from 51.87 GJ ha−1 (ZT-R) to 64.91 GJ ha−1 (CT + R) and irrigation water was major energy intensive input (41–44%) followed by chemical fertilizer (32–40%). Compared to CT-R, energy use efficiency (EUE) increased by 8.7–22.4%, CF lowered by 77.9–34.3%, and GHG emission lowered by 12.8–16.3% in different treatments. Residue addition enhanced the soil carbon accumulation in ZT + R (1213 kg C ha−1 yr−1) and RT + R (987 kg C ha−1 yr−1). Overall, switching from CT–R to ZT + R lowered energy consumption (19%), GHG emission (16%) and CF (78%), making it best-bet option for climate change mitigation and global warming related environmental protection in western IGP and similar agro–ecologies. [Display omitted] • Energy use efficiency (EUE), Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission and carbon footprints (CF) were analysed. • Irrigation water contribute maximum (41–44%) share of input energy followed chemical fertilizers (32–40%). • Conservation tillage and residue management enhanced energy productivity (15.8–21.0%) and EUE (17.1–22.4%). • The CF lowered by 77.9% in zero tillage with residue to 45.2% in reduced tillage without residue. • Zero tillage with residue addition is most energy efficient system with lower GHG emission and carbon footprint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate mitigation policies in Europe call for an extensive build-up of renewable power, which will increase from 320 GW in 2012 to 536 GW by 2020. The renewable expansion will mainly consist of the installation of new wind and solar power plants, which require additional transmission lines. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity estimates that 45,300 km of new or upgraded lines are necessary in the region over the next decade to accommodate the renewable power sources. Building a grid for renewables will help Europe achieve its climate goals, but other resulting environmental impacts have not yet been quantified. In this article a LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) for the transmission grid expansion is performed. The results show that the grid extension projects correspond to a total impact of 10.7 Mton CO2 eq. and 11.2 Mton Fe eq. Electricity transmission in Europe in 2020 will be more material intensive, requiring about 10% more metal inputs per kWh than today. Manufacturing processes for the production of transmission equipment are important for some impacts categories, particularly water depletion. Finally, a sensitivity analysis regarding recycling rates indicates that the results in some impact categories present great variation depending on the rates assumed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To underscore both the diversity and severity of energy security tradeoffs, this study examines five different energy security policy packages—five distinct strategies aimed at reducing oil dependence, enhancing energy affordability, expanding access to modern energy services, responding to climate change, and minimizing the water intensity of energy production. It identifies both compelling synergies and conflicts between each of the five strategies. The central value of the study is that it turns on its head the widely accepted notion of a “portfolio approach” or “all of the above” strategy to energy policymaking. To make this case, the article begins by elucidating the complexity and multidimensionality of energy security as a concept. It then introduces our five energy security policy packages to illustrate how some energy security objectives complement each other whereas others counteract each other. It concludes by noting that energy security is not an absolute state, and that achieving it only “works” by prioritizing some dimensions, or policy goals and packages, more than others. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The residential sector currently accounts for one fifth of global energy use and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions, largely driven by increasing demand for space heating and cooling. Climate change mitigation action requires these to reduce, but the exact decarbonization strategies, the contribution of demand and supply side measures, and their heterogeneity is unclear. Using a regional energy system model with an explicit representation of residential energy use and building stocks, the contribution of this sector in long-term decarbonization pathways is explored. The projections show that in a 2°C scenario, global heating demand is expected to decrease from current levels by 27% and 66% by 2050 and 2100, respectively. However, due to increasing affluence in warmer regions, cooling demand is expected to increase by 176% and 286% respectively. Yet, direct residential emissions are almost eliminated by 2100 by combining increased envelope efficiency and advanced heating technologies in a synergistic manner, where the adoption of high efficiency heating and cooling reduces the need for increased insulation, and vice versa. By combining these measures with rooftop PV, the net energy demand of many household types approaches zero. The exact residential sector strategies vary across local climate, socio-economic, and building stock characteristics. • Households account for a sizeable portion of energy demand and emissions. • We use a detailed model to investigate regional long-term decarbonization pathways. • Increasing insulation and efficient heating technologies both play an important role. • Combining with rooftop PV contributes to having net-zero buildings. • Contribution of each option depends on local climate and socio-economic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green financing has been proposed to stimulate and promote environment-friendly products such as low-carbon building and renewable energy to mitigate climate change since 2013; however, Taiwan's energy security is fragile and vulnerable to fluctuations of fossil prices. This study investigates how the promotion of green bonds benefits Taiwan's bioenergy production and emission reduction, as well as the development efficiency under various green-bond rates and volumes. We propose a price-endogenous, mathematical programming framework that incorporates the entire agricultural sector to simulate net bioenergy production, emission reduction, and overall profitability in the face of alternative bioenergy technologies and market conditions. The results show that if biopower and biofuel are eligible for low-cost bond financing, bioenergy production would be more stable. An increase in the emission trade price is favored to biopower technology, but this advantage will be partly recovered by a low borrowing rate because biofuel production will also be at a low production cost. In the face of energy price changes, we estimate that with an increase in green volume of US$0.61 to US$1.02 billion, a meaningful transition to bioenergy technology could occur. • A price endogenous, mathematical programming is applied. • We analyze the effect of bond rates and bond volume on bioenergy development. • Lower bond rates encourage the development of biopower. • Transitions among bioenergy technology occurs under various market conditions. • Capital required for biopower is relatively stable than for biofuel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As forecasted by the International Energy Agency Energy Technology Perspectives baseline scenario, the largest increment in LDV (light-duty vehicles) stock, travel demand and transport sector energy consumption will take place in the developing world. In the developing countries where the import of used vehicles is allowed, a considerable portion of the LDV stock increment will be realized with used vehicles. In this paper, the analytical framework for assessment of climate change mitigation potential of transport sector in developing countries is adapted in order to incorporate the expected vehicle fleet increase with used vehicles. The evaluation of appropriate mitigation strategies is performed using the GHG Costing Model (GACMO), which compares each mitigation option with the BAU (business-as-usual) option and determines its environmental effectiveness (t CO2 reduced) and economic effectiveness (US$/t CO2 reduced). The adapted analytical framework is applied on the case of transport sector of Macedonia, evaluating appropriate options inline with five mitigation strategies: improvement of vehicle fleet, introduction of low carbon fuels, improvement of travel behaviour, advancement of vehicle equipment and improvement of driver behaviour. The resulting marginal cost curve for the year 2020 indicates a total achievable reduction of 22% with respect to BAU GHG transport sector emissions, with bulk of it at relatively high specific costs of around 90 US$/t CO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This study undertakes a decomposition analysis to identify the factors driving energy-related CO2 emissions in five regions of South Korea, where substantial eco-industrial parks (EIPs) are operational. CO2 emissions are decomposed into five effects: production, population, energy intensity, emission, and fuel mix. We also investigated promising technologies and networks as means to reduce CO2 emissions in the EIPs. Finally, based on comparison with CO2 emission trends of other developed and developing countries, we suggest implications for CO2 reduction policies. It is found that increases in carbon emissions were due mainly to the production effect of both EIPs and the surrounding regions. Reduced energy intensity, on the other hand, was the main factor mitigating carbon emissions. LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) analysis also confirmed the role of EIPs in reducing CO2 emissions, which showed reduced energy intensity in all EIPs. Therefore, it is believed that EIPs have great potential to reduce CO2 emissions in South Korea. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This study uses a hybrid Life Cycle Assessment approach to evaluate the environmental impacts of large-scale deployment of Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) in coal and natural gas based electricity generation, based on IEA scenarios. For the Baseline scenario, all impact categories would increase 2–3-fold in 2050 from 2005 levels. Green House Gas (GHG) emissions are found to decrease by ∼40% in ACTmap scenario and by ∼75% in more CCS-intensive BLUEmap scenario. These climate mitigation scenarios also show significantly reduced impacts of acidification, particulate matter formation and human toxicity, suggesting the existence of co-benefits. For eutrophication, all scenarios indicate substantial increases, but the increases are largest in the Baseline scenario. For photochemical oxidant formation, only the mitigation scenarios manage to stabilize this impact from fossil fuel based power production. This study does not assess the impact of alternative power generation or energy efficiency technology that replaces part of the fossil fuel power in the mitigation scenarios. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is increasingly seen as a way for society to enjoy the benefits of fossil fuel energy sources while avoiding the climate disruption associated with fossil CO2 emissions. A decision to deploy CCS technology at scale should be based on robust information on its overall costs and benefits. Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is a framework for holistic assessment of the energy and environmental footprint of a system, and can provide crucial information to policy-makers, scientists, and engineers as they develop and deploy CCS systems. We identify seven key issues that should be considered to ensure that conclusions and recommendations from CCS LCA are robust: energy penalty, functional units, scale-up challenges, non-climate environmental impacts, uncertainty management, policy-making needs, and market effects. Several recent life-cycle studies have focused on detailed assessments of individual CCS technologies and applications. While such studies provide important data and information on technology performance, such case-specific data are inadequate to fully inform the decision making process. LCA should aim to describe the system-wide environmental implications of CCS deployment at scale, rather than a narrow analysis of technological performance of individual power plants. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Integrated Assessment models, widely applied in climate change mitigation research, show that renewable energy sources (RES) play an important role in the decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, the representation of relevant technologies in those models is highly stylized, thereby omitting important information about the variability of electricity demand and renewables supply. We present a power system model combining long time scales of climate change mitigation and power system investments with short-term fluctuations of RES. Investigating the influence of increasingly high temporal resolution on the optimal technology mix yields two major findings: the amount of flexible natural gas technologies for electricity generation rises while the share of wind energy only depends on climate policy constraints. Furthermore, overall power system costs increase as temporal resolution is refined in the model, while mitigation costs remain unaffected. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Likely increase in energy use in air-conditioned office buildings due to climate change in subtropical Hong Kong was estimated for two emissions scenarios. Towards the end of the 21st century (i.e. 2091–2100), the average annual building energy use would be 6.6% and 8.1% more than that in 1979–2008 for low and medium forcing, respectively. Potential mitigation measures concerning the building envelope, internal condition, lighting load density (LLD) and chiller plant were considered. Thermal insulation to the external wall would not be effective to mitigate the expected increase in building energy use due to climate change. Controlling the amount of solar heat gain through the window would be a better option. Lowering the current LLD of 15W/m2 to about 13W/m2 would result in substantial energy savings because of the reduction in electricity consumption for both electric lighting and air-conditioning. As for the chiller plant, the coefficient of performance (COP) should be improved from the current minimum requirement of 4.7 to at least 5.5 to alleviate the impact of climate change. Raising the summer set point temperature (SST) to 25.5°C or higher would have high energy saving and hence mitigation potential, which could be readily applied to both new and existing buildings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Possible growth paths for new electricity generation technologies are investigated on the basis of an empirical analysis of past penetration rates. Finding and understanding high market penetration scenarios is relevant to formulating climate change mitigation strategies. The analysis shows that under favorable growth conditions, photovoltaics and wind could produce 15% and 25%, respectively, of world electricity by 2050. Under the same assumptions nuclear power could increase to 41% of world electricity. But it is unlikely that all three technology paths could be realized up to these values simultaneously and therefore the penetration rates presented here should be considered as indicative only. The results show that under positive conditions, an embryonic technology could move as a preferred option into a mainstream energy source within half a century. The introduction of growth constraints reflecting, e.g., severe economic, technical, or political limitations could reduce the above numbers by a factor of up to 2–3. The results indicate a decline in the relative year-to-year growth of new technologies when they have higher market shares. A comparison of the results with other short-term and long-term technology scenarios shows satisfactory agreement. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Strengthening capacity for cross-sectoral coordination has a crucial role in enabling ambitious climate mitigation. This research work integrates the Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems Index into a policy framework with three main components to compare possibilities for improving urban system performance. Tiers of integration are defined and compared with the index results for more transformative action. The levels range from unintegrated urban sectors and emerging integration, including those with urban land use and spatial planning, to advanced integration across the urban system. The case study is based on a municipality that is benchmarked to receive an index score of 27.783, placing the urban area in rank 79 among 120 other cities. The measures in the existing action plan are compared with opportunities that would support the municipality in reaching higher tiers of urban integration in the future. Policy learning from other urban areas to which the index is applied is foreseen to support collective action in addressing synergistic opportunities for mitigation. The results have implications on considering urban system integration in the transition to net-zero targets, missions for climate-neutral cities, and the realization of 100% renewable energy systems. • Urban climate mitigation action can focus on integrating across the urban system. • A framework that involves benchmarking is developed in a broader policy context. • The case study receives a benchmarked score of 27.783 as a solution-seeking city. • Tiers of urban system integration are defined with comparisons to opportunities. • Net-zero emission targets can be supported with more transformative urban action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable energy development in the farming sector is an essential strategy to respond the combined challenge of achieving a reliable and affordable solution but including mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Intensive breeding farms require maintaining an adequate indoor thermal environment that results in high energy demands, usually covered by fossil fuels and electricity. This paper addresses the application of the combined slurry technology for a particular pig farm that currently uses a diesel boiler to supply the piglet heating energy needs. The study also considers different options based on closed ground source heat pump systems. After the design of the slurry alternative and the geothermal ones, notable advantages are detected compared to the existing diesel system. Results show that the implementation of the slurry technology implies an important reduction of the operational costs, which, in turn, involves short amortization periods for this system in relation to the diesel one. Greenhouse gases emissions are also highly reduced in the slurry alternative based on the low electricity use of the heat pump. The environmental side is reinforced by the reduction of polluting substances such as methane of ammonia derived from the descent of temperature of the slurry. [Display omitted] • Slurry technology has been evaluated and designed for covering the heating needs of a pig farm under study. • Slurry alternative has been compared to the existing diesel boiler and the conventional ground source heat pump systems. • GES-CAL software has allowed the design of the remaining geothermal installations. • Results show clear advantages for the slurry technology both from the economic and the environmental points of view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the role of fiscal decentralization cannot be overlooked in tracking sustainable development goals targets of a clean environment and climate mitigation, it is inevitable to understand the comprehensive picture of its link with environmental quality. Unlike past studies, this study investigates the combined influence of energy prices and non-linear fiscal decentralization on carbon emissions in the presence of institutional quality and gross domestic product in the model. It employed advanced econometric panel techniques on data from 1990 to 2018 for the top seven fiscally decentralized Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations, including Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Australia, and Canada. The main outcomes are as follows: first, a cointegrating equilibrium link is existent among the study variables. Second, the linear term of fiscal decentralization promotes carbon emissions, while the non-linear term mitigates it. It verified the inverted U-shaped curve between fiscal decentralization and carbon emissions. Third, increasing energy prices for non-renewable energy decrease carbon emission due to a substitution effect. Among other explanatory variables, improvement in the quality of institutions decreases carbon emissions, while the gross domestic product increases it. These findings suggest strengthening fiscal decentralization, lowering non-renewable energy prices, and improving institutional quality to check the deteriorating environmental quality in the study sample and other worldwide regions. • Employed Westerlund cointegration and found long-run equilibrium association. • Applied CS-ARDL and AMG techniques to obtain the influence estimates. • Linear (non-linear) fiscal decentralization promoted (reduced) carbon emissions. • Fiscal decentralization presented an inverted U-shaped association with carbon emissions. • Energy prices and institutional quality mitigated carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the transportation sector occupies a vital role in current society. However, this sector is the second-highest greenhouse gas emitter worldwide due to fossil fuel combustion. Transitioning from conventional to renewable energy propulsion is a promising alternative to climate change mitigation. This study proposes a smart decision-making approach of an integrated system assisted with renewable energy sources to satisfy the dynamic railway electrification demand. The proposed energy system consists of a proton-exchange membrane electrolyzer, solid-oxide fuel cell, and lithium-bromide absorption chiller assisted with solar radiation and wind turbine to simultaneously generate power, hydrogen, cooling, and heating loads. A novel approach consists of power-pinch analysis and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) to determine the optimal sizing of renewable resources considering the system's thermodynamic, economic, and exergy performance. A total of five optimal scenarios with different renewable sources share were obtained. Accordingly, the scenario with a share of 70/30 of solar and wind energy showed the highest competitiveness based on the MCDM. This scenario showed an energetic and exergetic efficiency of 49% and 34%, respectively. Furthermore, it yielded acceptable subproducts generation, including the production of 312.25 kg H 2 /day, in an economical budget with a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) value of 0.079 $/kWh. • Smart management tool was developed for the dynamic railway electrification demand. • Power, hydrogen, cooling, and heating loads were produced simultaneously. • Power pinch analysis was developed to find optimal sizing of renewable energy share. • Energy and exergy analyses yielded efficiencies of 69% and 42%, respectively. • The optimal scenario generated a total of 312.25 kg H 2 /day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International climate policy debate has been struggling to define an agreeable principle for just distribution of the burdens of reducing greenhouse gases. By the integrated assessment modeling, we investigate climate change mitigation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement goals under different carbon budget allocation principles, namely, cost-effectiveness, equality, and grandfathering for 11 world regions. The results indicate that regional carbon quotas remain similar under equality and grandfathering principles, except for regions with a high population projection, i.e., Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, or regions with a high level of current emissions, such as North America. Irrespective of the burden-sharing principles, most world regions must reach carbon neutrality before 2070 to meet the 2 °C climate targets. Moreover, carbon emissions reduced by carbon capture and storage applications are found to peak around 2050. In general, the share of fossil fuels in primary energy is larger under the larger carbon quota, which will also increase carbon capture and storage applications in fossil fuels. The average global investment needs for mitigating climate change are the lowest under the cost-effectiveness principle, and the marginal abatement cost is the same for all regions. For each region, as the carbon quota decreases the marginal abatement cost increases, while the energy investment changes independently from the carbon quota. These insights can inform global climate change negotiations and help policymakers formulate timelines for carbon neutrality, energy transition, and technology deployment and investment portfolios. • Allocation of carbon budget for 11 world regions is estimated under 3 principles. • Effects of allocation principles on emissions and energy transition are investigated. • The effects of carbon quota on MAC and energy investment are different. • International cooperation can help achieve climate goals in a cost-effective way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The article aims to evaluate the potential role of nuclear energy in Lithuania under various post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes. Seeking to achieve this target the analysis of possible energy sector development scenarios in Lithuania was performed and CO2 emission projections for these scenarios were developed. The analysis of post-Kyoto climate change mitigation architectures was performed and the requirements of these possible climate change mitigation regimes for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in Lithuania were assessed. Based on these assessments the potential role of new nuclear power in Lithuania was identified under various future climate change mitigation regimes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

As climate change is likely to alter regional water availability via shifted precipitation patterns that affect agricultural practices, the analysis of the effectiveness of bioenergy promotion policies and efficiency of bioenergy development requires a thorough consideration of the interrelationships among water, agriculture, and renewable energy development in the context of climate change. We propose a stochastic, price-endogenous mathematical programming with recourse model by linking a well-established water resource model to a bioenergy production framework to investigate the aggregate economic and environmental effect of bioenergy production. This study theoretically analyzes the optimal resource allocation and production conditions of the model, and empirically tests the goodness of the proposed model with observed data. The results show that the proposed framework is likely to reflect the actual bioenergy production in the face of climate-induced impacts, and at small to moderate climate impacts the bioenergy production is likely to be more influenced by the energy and emission prices than by climate-induced yield changes. In addition, while the reduction in precipitation would not result in significant effects on bioenergy production, a substantial change in land use and cropping decisions might occur. • A bioenergy production–water allocation model under climate change is presented. • Optimal resource allocation and production conditions were analyzed and tested. • Uncertain supply of water can substantially influence bioenergy production. • Water supply–agriculture relationship must be aggregated for bioenergy potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus pandemic has infected more than 23 million people worldwide by August 2020 along with more than 800,000 deaths. To face this pandemic, a joint effort among different areas has been required. In this context, the correct supply of basic services is the key to enhance the complex circumstance. The operation of the electric power systems is needed to ensure the answer to the situation. Basic services in areas of health, security, food, and communications depend on the electricity supply. Consequently, this paper introduces a multi-objective procedure that enhances the operations of power systems under these circumstances. It considers geographical areas that are affected by coronavirus cases and their effects on the personnel of power plants. To obtain the best combinations of total cost and protection of the workers, lexicographic optimization is implemented. The effectiveness of this approach is studied by solving two test cases: a 6-bus system and the Argentine Electric System with real data about the infection cases. The effects on the electricity generation and transportation stages are studied. The results allow identifying critical areas and proposing corrective actions. The method can reach feasible solutions with a low computational requirement. [Display omitted] • Model studies the impact of the pandemic on the operation of a large-scale systems. • Multi-objective model considers how the pandemic affects different power plants. • It ensures the normal supply by considering health and economic aspects. • Relationship between the reduction of personnel due to infections is studied. • It relates the operation of power plants with the availability of workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to provide an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) perspective of the production and distribution of alternative marine fuels in Brazilian ports, considering the International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission reduction target for 2050 (IMO2050). Although other mitigation measures are available, it is likely that alternative fuels will be required, implying additional costs and entailing relevant impacts on other energy chains and land use. Hence, the national IAM BLUES model is adapted to represent the relevant part of the international shipping sector. A set of scenarios is developed considering different fuel alternatives, demand assumptions and national mitigation targets. Findings show that taking into account emissions of CO 2 only or of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) within the IMO strategy significantly impacts the optimal technological portfolio. Furthermore, achieving the IMO2050 goal without considering a national decarbonization strategy may result in potential spillovers. The intense use of the energy sector could partially compromise the gains obtained by maritime decarbonization or even surpass it. Therefore, only an integrated mitigation strategy would lead to more effective decarbonization of the entire marine supply. • There is no single optimal portfolio of alternative fuels for shipping. • Brazil can fulfil any low-carbon marine fuel strategy. • Marine fuels should be part of all national decarbonization strategies. • The decarbonization of shipping should be part of Brazil's deep mitigation pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we evaluate whether the US states have been able to achieve convergence in their carbon emission cycles which may be a key factor in taking a leap as regards the development of a US climate change policy. The use of a dynamic unobserved component approach and a time-varying parameter model enable estimation of the short run dynamics of energy convergence over the extended period 1960–2017. To date, this type of analysis has not received enough attention in the literature. The results reveal the existence of cross-state links in the fluctuations of CO 2 emissions, although the degree to which a good part of the states are co-moving is weak. We also find that cyclical convergence patterns differ considerably in both the level and trajectories across the US states. The difficulties in increasing synchronization of the US CO 2 emissions highlight the importance of the states to lead climate change mitigation actions. The present study presents valuable information of interest regarding the short-run characteristics in carbon dioxide emissions, for better understanding of factors affecting CO 2 mitigation policies. Image 1 • Short run characteristics of CO2 emissions convergence at state-level are studied. • We rank US states by the level of cross-state links in CO2 fluctuations. • Cyclical convergence patterns are distinctively different across states. • National environmental initiatives only have transitory effects on CO2 emissions. • Dataset of CO2 emissions covering 1960–2017 at state level is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limiting global warming to "well below 2°C" as stated in the Paris Agreement requires ambitious emissions reductions from all sectors. Rapid technology cost declines in the energy sector are changing energy investment and emissions, even with the weak climate policies currently in place. We assess how energy supply costs and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) availability affect mitigation by performing a sensitivity analysis with the energy-economy-climate model REMIND. We use new scenarios with carbon price paths that aim to reduce the frequently seen temperature overshoot. Further, we measure the sensitivities of mitigation indicators to the costs of technologies across economic sectors. We assess the sensitivity to nine techno-economic parameters: the costs of wind, solar, biomass, gas, coal, oil, nuclear, and electric/hydrogen vehicles, as well as the injection rate of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). While technology costs play a role in shaping optimal pathways, we find that transport sector costs affect the economics of deep decarbonization, whereas costs of renewables are more important for scenarios under weak climate policies. This further highlights the value of renewable energy deployment as a no-regrets option in climate policy. In terms of the sensitivity of model outputs, economic indicators become more sensitive to costs than emissions, with increasing policy stringency. • The transport sector costs affect the economics of deep decarbonization. • The costs of renewables are more important for scenarios under weak climate policies. • Renewable energy deployment is a no-regrets option in climate policy. • Even in "favorable" price scenarios, optimal emissions need to reach zero by 2065. • Robust and broad policy support is needed for achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building energy use is becoming increasingly important in China. Despite a rapid growth in recent years, energy use intensity in China is still relatively low compared to other advanced economies; thus, there is still substantial room for it to increase as living standards and industrial services are improved. It is therefore important to focus on the future development of building energy use by considering new trends in the building and energy sectors, as well as the role of occupant behavior. This study uses the China Building Energy Model (CBEM) to model China's building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 for different scenarios based on these considerations. The results indicate that building energy use will be 80% higher than the current situation if the strategies of the 13th Five-Year Plan are maintained and approximately 10% higher if stronger strategies toward energy efficiency are employed. Carbon emissions are predicted to peak around 2020 to 2035. The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors are also discussed. This research suggests that, through the use of suitable strategies and policies, energy use and carbon emissions in China's building sector can achieve the combined goals of energy revolution and climate change mitigation. • China's building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 were modeled. • China's building energy use will be 10%–80% higher under different scenarios. • The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors were discussed. • China's building sector is able to develop sustainably with suitable strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The requirements for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt in power generation, storage and transport technologies until 2050 under six global energy scenarios are assessed. We consider plausible developments in the subtechnology markets for lithium-ion batteries, wind power, and electric motors for road transport. Moreover, we include the uncertainties regarding the specific material content of these subtechnologies and the reserve and resource estimates. Furthermore, the development of the material demand in non-energy sectors is considered. The results show that the material requirements increase with the degree of ambition of the scenarios. The maximum annual primary material demand of the scenarios exceeds current extraction volumes by a factor of 3 to 9 (Nd), 7 to 35 (Dy), 12 to 143 (Li), and 2 to 22 (Co). The ratios of cumulative primary material demand to average reserve estimates range from 0.1 to 0.3 (Nd), 0.3 to 1.1 (Dy), 0.7 to 6.5 (Li), and 0.8 to 5.5 (Co). Average resource estimates of Li and Co are exceeded by up to a factor of 2.1 and 1.7, respectively. We recommend that future scenario studies on the energy system transformation consider the influence of possible material bottlenecks on technology prices and substitution technology options. • Estimations include uncertainties regarding technologies, demand and supply for metals. • A significant increase in annual material demand is expected. • Current reserves of neodymium should be sufficient to meet estimated demand. • In some scenarios, the demand for dysprosium exceeds average reserves. • Lithium and cobalt are particularly critical to low carbon energy systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat is a growing concern in cities around the word, especially in the face of climate change. Because buildings are an important component of the built environment vis-à-vis both energy use and heat resiliency in cities, we explored their climate mitigation and adaptation potential. Specifically, we investigated how design decisions interact with regard to three heat-related factors—namely, energy use/CO 2 emissions, passive survivability, and heat rejection to the urban climate. We selected an archetypical building as our test case, created various design permutations, and used whole-building simulations to analyze their performance. Our simulations show that permutations of the building with a smaller carbon footprint also emit less heat to ambient air and had a better passive survivability. However, we also noted potential trade-offs (e.g., where ventilation is inadequate, increasing insulation levels for energy efficiency may hurt passive survivability). Based on our findings, we argue that, at least at a policy level, it is imperative to take advantage of the synergies, and their collective benefits. Moreover, building regulations or incentive programs should look beyond energy as the sole performance metric of interest and consider passive survivability as well as thermal interactions with urban climate. Image 1 • Buildings can improve urban heat resiliency via three different mechanisms. • We simulated all three in 1300 permutations of a multi-family residential building. • Results show a synergy; buildings with passive survivability emit less GHG & heat. • Trade-offs also exist between climate adaptation & mitigation and should be avoided. • The resiliency measures tested increase costs at the individual building level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reliable energy supply is fundamental to ensure energy security and support the mitigation of climate change by promoting the use of renewable sources and reducing carbon emissions. Energy system analysis provides a sound methodology to assess energy needs, allowing to investigate the energy system behavior and to individuate the optimal energy-technology configurations for the achievement of strategic energy and environmental policy targets. In this framework, the estimation of future trends of exogenous variables such as energy demand has a fundamental importance to obtain reliable and effective solutions, contributing remarkably to the accuracy of models' input data. This study illustrates an application of regression analysis to predict energy demand trends in end use sectors. The proposed procedure is applied to characterize statistically the relationships between population and gross domestic product (independent variables) and energy demands of Residential, Transport and Commercial in order to determine the energy demand trends over a long-term horizon. The effectiveness of linear and nonlinear regression models for energy demand forecasting has been validated by classical statistical tests. Energy demand projections have been tested as input data of the bottom-up TIMES model in two applications (the TIMES-Basilicata and TIMES-Italy models) confirming the validity of the forecasting approach. • Energy systems modeling requires a detailed description of energy demand development (85). • Relationships among energy demand, population and economic variables are emphasized (83). • Regression analysis is applied to end-use demand forecasts as input for TIMES models (84). • The efficacy of regression analysis is validated by classical statistical tests (79). • Energy trends are tested with two energy models: TIMES-Basilicata and TIMES-Italy (81). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy consumption in the residential sector has grown significantly over the last 30 years. In recent years, a large number of authors have analysed the determinants of behaviour related to climate change. However, in this paper, referring to the behaviour and consumption level, we focused on energy consumption and direct household CO 2 emissions. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the determinants of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in the Lithuanian residential sector. Energy consumption was evaluated referring to the residential bills based on the official energy prices; CO 2 emission equivalent was calculated employing the emission factors for separate energy resources. The regression analysis revealed that attitudes were significant only in the case of energy consumption for heating, but not in the case of heating-related CO 2 , which depended solely on the housing area, the type of fuel, and home heating (centralized). Meanwhile, concerning electricity consumption and related CO 2 emissions, the pro-environmental behaviour was one of the factors along with the type of house, the number of children, family size, and gender. Results indicated that a complex of different factors needed to be considered to increase energy savings and CO 2 reduction inthe residential sector regarding heating and electricity consumption. • Paper focused on energy consumption and direct household CO 2 emissions. • Attitudes significant influenced energy consumption for heating. • CO 2 emissions are affected by the house characteristics. • Pro-environmental behaviour and the attitudes make limited impact on energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enhancing energy efficiency is an important goal of climate change mitigation policies. Promoting energy efficiency projects in developing countries has faced several barriers, preventing optimal investments. One of the main barriers has been the lack of internationally recognized indices to compare projects across countries. In this era of global political turbulence and a looming trade-war that will likely lead to unjustified tariffs, it is critical to provide publicly available robust indices for investors. We construct the Energy Efficiency Country Attractiveness Index to evaluate countries' competitiveness in terms of energy efficiency potentials and related investment risks to aid investment decision-making in the oil and gas sector. Our index includes 30 indicators congregated in four pillars covering political, economic, social and technological factors, combined by means of Fuzzy measures and Choquet integral according to the preferences of a panel of experts. Although experts consider the economic and technological factors as the most important elements affecting investment in the energy related projects and they are moderately tolerant following disjunctive behaviour in dealing with the political, economic, social, and technological criteria, squared correlation analysis shows that, at least for OPEC countries, the political pillar is the crucial one in shaping the composite index. • We construct Energy Efficiency Country Attractiveness Index for OPEC member countries. • We aggregate indicators covering political, economic, social, and technological (PEST) dimensions. • Indicators are combined using Choquet integral based on fuzzy measures and experts' elicitation. • Experts identify economic and technological factors as the most important elements affecting energy investments. • Experts are moderately tolerant following disjunctive behaviour in dealing with PEST criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]