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Achieving decarbonisation of the heating sector is a major challenge, especially in Ireland, which has the lowest proportion of renewable heat in Europe. In economically pursuing ambitious and equitable climate targets, Ireland's Climate Action Plan 2023 set a goal of reaching 2.5 TWh of district heating by 2030, starting from a limited existing capacity. This pioneering study explores supply sources and heat density demand cohorts to develop a model to understand district heating in a low-deployment region, using Ireland as a case study. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis considering different connection rates. Our research demonstrates that district heating is pivotal in achieving optimal decarbonisation pathways. Incorporating district heating reduces marginal CO 2 emission prices by 13%–25%. Additionally, with feasible growth limits applied, total savings for the energy system are anticipated to reach €17.2 billion by 2050. This reduction of emissions in the building sector, facilitated by district heating, allows for greater emissions allowances in other sectors and reduces reliance on electricity while meeting climate targets. These insights highlight the need for spatial energy policies and deepen our understanding of integrating district heating within an energy system optimisation model. • District heating in Ireland can reduce marginal CO 2 emission prices by 13%–25%. • District heating can cumulatively save €17.2 billion compared to no district heating. • Regional energy policy is needed to align with cost-optimal pathways. • Regional supply and demand quantified sensitivity analysis strengthens insights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep decarbonization scenarios indicate a decline in fossil oil usage in the coming decades, meaning that oil refineries must adapt. This work evaluates the refining sector in deep decarbonization pathways using Brazil as a case study. BLUES – a national integrated assessment model – is employed to investigate the evolution of the sector in mitigation scenarios until 2050. The production of feedstocks for the petrochemical industry, of fuels for the aviation and maritime sectors, and biomass co-processing are analyzed. These strategies may bring resilience to the sector. The potential for avoiding emissions in refineries' operations is also explored. Findings show that the refining sector operates at 70% and 74% of its nameplate capacity in decarbonization scenarios. These results are used as the starting point for a detailed analysis of Brazilian refineries. Results show that the employment of refineries' assets for purposes aligned with decarbonization targets, along with emissions mitigation in the sector, reduces risks of carbon lock-in and of asset stranding. To our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates emissions mitigation in the refining sector and also uses an integrated assessment model to investigate oil refining repurposing and co-processing options in the context of decarbonization. • The refining sector is evaluated using an integrated assessment model for Brazil. • A comparison is made between business- as -usual and decarbonization scenarios. • Opportunities for refineries' assets and mitigation measures are explored. • Opportunities for refineries depend on their location and type of processing units. • Risks of carbon lock-in and asset stranding can be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to study the decoupling status and mitigation potential of CO2 emissions from China's transport sector over the period 1991–2015. Firstly, this paper utilizes the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique to identify influencing factors, which govern CO2 emissions from China's transport sector. Over the study period, the CO2 coefficient effect (Δ C c f t ) was the main factor for decreasing CO2 emissions. However, the economic growth effect (Δ C g t ) was the main factor for increasing CO2 emissions. Then, the decoupling indicator is also constructed based on the above influencing factors, which can be utilized to reflect the dependence degree of economic development on CO2 emissions from China's transport sector. During 1991–2015, the CO2 emissions from China's transport sector presented expansive coupling (EC) with economic development. Weak decoupling (WD) only appeared in the sub-period 1991–1995. The CO 2 emissions only presented 3 decoupling grades in all sub-period and the period 1991–2015: Ⅱ, Ⅲ, and Ⅳ. Furthermore, the above influencing factors are also used to establish a theoretical mitigation model, which is used to reflect the mitigation potential of CO2 emissions from China's transport sector. Finally, the occurrence of CO2 mitigation only appeared in 3 sub-periods: 1991–1995, 2005–2010, and 2010–2015. • The LMDI technique is used to identify influencing factors. • The decoupling indicator is constructed based on the influencing factors. • The influencing factors are used to establish a theoretical mitigation model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Japan is the sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter in 2016 and plays an important role to attain the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement. One of the key policy issues in Japan's energy and environmental policy arena is the energy system transition to achieve 80% emissions reduction in 2050, a current policy goal set in 2016. To contribute to the ongoing policy debate, this paper focuses on energy-related CO 2 emissions and analyzes such decarbonization scenarios that are consistent with the government goals. We employ six energy-economic and integrated assessment models to reveal decarbonization challenges in the energy system. The modeling results show that Japan's mitigation scenarios are characterized by high marginal costs of abatement. They also suggest that the industrial sector is likely to have a large final energy share and significant residual emissions under the 80% reduction scenario, though it is generally thought that the transport sector would have large decarbonization challenges. The present findings imply that not only energy policy but also industrial policy may be relevant to the long-term environmental target. Given the high marginal costs exceeding those of negative emissions technologies that could place a cost ceiling, further model development would be crucial. Highlights • We analyze the energy system scenarios to achieve 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. • We employ six integrated assessment models to reveal decarbonization challenges in the energy system. • The model results show that the industrial sector has a large final energy share and significant residual carbon dioxide emissions under the 80% reduction scenario. • We also show that Japan's mitigation scenarios are accompanied with high marginal costs of abatement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the EU, COVID-19 and associated policy responses led to economy-wide disruptions and shifts in services demand, with considerable energy-system implications. The European Commission's response paved the way towards enhancing climate ambition through the European Green Deal. Understanding the interactions among environmental, social, and economic dimensions in climate action post-COVID thus emerged as a key challenge. This study disaggregates the implications of climate ambition, speed of economic recovery from COVID-19, and behavioural changes due to pandemic-related measures and/or environmental concerns for EU transition dynamics, over the next decade. It soft-links two large-scale energy-economy models, EU-TIMES and NEMESIS, to shed light on opportunities and challenges related to delivering on the EU's 2030 climate targets. Results indicate that half the effort required to reach the updated 55% emissions reduction target should come from electricity decarbonisation, followed by transport. Alongside a post-COVID return to normal, the European Green Deal may lead to increased carbon prices and fossil-fuel rebounds, but these risks may be mitigated by certain behavioural changes, gains from which in transport energy use would outweigh associated consumption increases in the residential sector. Finally, the EU recovery mechanism could deliver about half the required investments needed to deliver on the 2030 ambition. • This study soft-links an energy system model and a macroeconometric model for the EU. • Electricity decarbonisation can make up half the effort to −55% followed by transport. • Investments as part of EU green recovery could finance about half of what is required. • The pandemic is unlikely to heavily impact the EU's long-term emissions trajectory. • Work- and travel-related behaviour changes could considerably reduce investment needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The industry sector is a major energy consumer and GHG emitter. Effective climate change mitigation strategies will require a significant reduction of industrial emissions. To better understand the variations in the projected industrial pathways for both baseline and mitigation scenarios, we compare key input and structure assumptions used in energy-models in relation to the modeled sectors' mitigation potential. It is shown that although all models show in the short term similar trends in a baseline scenario, where industrial energy demand increases steadily, after 2050 energy demand spans a wide range across the models (between 203 and 451 EJ/yr). In Non-OECD countries, the sectors energy intensity is projected to decline relatively rapidly but in the 2010–2050 period this is offset by economic growth. The ability to switch to alternative fuels to mitigate GHG emissions differs across models with technologically detailed models being less flexible in switching from fossil fuels to electricity. This highlights the importance of understanding economy-wide mitigation responses and costs and is therefore an area for improvements. By looking at the cement sector in more detail, we show that analyzing each industrial sub-sector separately can improve the interpretation and accuracy of outcomes, and provide insights in the feasibility of GHG abatement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The residential sector currently accounts for one fifth of global energy use and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions, largely driven by increasing demand for space heating and cooling. Climate change mitigation action requires these to reduce, but the exact decarbonization strategies, the contribution of demand and supply side measures, and their heterogeneity is unclear. Using a regional energy system model with an explicit representation of residential energy use and building stocks, the contribution of this sector in long-term decarbonization pathways is explored. The projections show that in a 2°C scenario, global heating demand is expected to decrease from current levels by 27% and 66% by 2050 and 2100, respectively. However, due to increasing affluence in warmer regions, cooling demand is expected to increase by 176% and 286% respectively. Yet, direct residential emissions are almost eliminated by 2100 by combining increased envelope efficiency and advanced heating technologies in a synergistic manner, where the adoption of high efficiency heating and cooling reduces the need for increased insulation, and vice versa. By combining these measures with rooftop PV, the net energy demand of many household types approaches zero. The exact residential sector strategies vary across local climate, socio-economic, and building stock characteristics. • Households account for a sizeable portion of energy demand and emissions. • We use a detailed model to investigate regional long-term decarbonization pathways. • Increasing insulation and efficient heating technologies both play an important role. • Combining with rooftop PV contributes to having net-zero buildings. • Contribution of each option depends on local climate and socio-economic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As forecasted by the International Energy Agency Energy Technology Perspectives baseline scenario, the largest increment in LDV (light-duty vehicles) stock, travel demand and transport sector energy consumption will take place in the developing world. In the developing countries where the import of used vehicles is allowed, a considerable portion of the LDV stock increment will be realized with used vehicles. In this paper, the analytical framework for assessment of climate change mitigation potential of transport sector in developing countries is adapted in order to incorporate the expected vehicle fleet increase with used vehicles. The evaluation of appropriate mitigation strategies is performed using the GHG Costing Model (GACMO), which compares each mitigation option with the BAU (business-as-usual) option and determines its environmental effectiveness (t CO2 reduced) and economic effectiveness (US$/t CO2 reduced). The adapted analytical framework is applied on the case of transport sector of Macedonia, evaluating appropriate options inline with five mitigation strategies: improvement of vehicle fleet, introduction of low carbon fuels, improvement of travel behaviour, advancement of vehicle equipment and improvement of driver behaviour. The resulting marginal cost curve for the year 2020 indicates a total achievable reduction of 22% with respect to BAU GHG transport sector emissions, with bulk of it at relatively high specific costs of around 90 US$/t CO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]