Search

The electricity consumption behavior of the inhabitants is a major contributor to the uncertainty of the residential load system. Human-caused uncertainty may have a distributional component, but it is not well understood, which limits further understanding the stochastic component of load forecasting. This study proposes a short-term load-interval forecasting method considering the stochastic features caused by users' electricity consumption behavior. The proposed method is composed of two parts: load-point forecasting using singular spectrum analysis and long short-term memory (SSA-LSTM), and load boundaries forecasting using statistical analysis. Firstly, the load sequence is decomposed and recombined using SSA to obtain regular and stochastic subsequences. Then, the load-point forecasting LSTM network model is trained from the regular subsequence. Subsequently, the load boundaries related to load consumption consistency are forecasted by statistical analysis. Finally, the forecasting results are combined to obtain the load-interval forecasting result. The case study reveals that compared with other common methods, the proposed method can forecast the load interval more accurately and stably based on the load time series. By using the proposed method, the evaluation index coverage rates (CRs) are (17.50%, 1.95%, 1.05%, 0.97%, 7.80%, 4.55%, 9.52%, 1.11%), (17.95%, 3.02%, 1.49%, 5.49%, 5.03%, 1.66%, 1.49%), (19.79%, 2.79%, 1.43%, 1.18%, 3.37%, 1.42%) higher than the compared methods, and the interval average convergences (IACs) are (−18.19%, −8.15%, 3.97%), (36.97%, 21.92%, 22.59%), (12.31%, 21.59%, 7.22%) compared to the existing methods in three different counties, respectively, which shows that the proposed method has better overall performance and applicability through our discussion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power systems optimization is generally subject to the compromise between performance and cost. The 2021 Texas grid outage illustrates the worldwide dangers for the regional-centralized power grid, with comparable advantages to safety and flexibility for the distributed energy system. The storage of household batteries helps balance grid load and increase system stability and flexibility. However, household storage battery is still not widely used today because of its high costs. Currently, research on increasing household battery storage applicability is focused largely on optimizing economic strategies, such as configuration, dispatching and subsidy policies, which rely substantially more on technologies and financial perspectives. Consumers are not 'rational' individuals, and non-economic incentives can affect their decisions without raising prices. This paper consequently proposes to encourage users to acquire household battery storage to increase efficiency of power dispatching and economic advantages based on behavioral economics. In this paper, an empirical research builds upon the utility model of behavioral economics incentives and purchase willingness. Moreover, the multi-objective genetic algorithm is utilized to optimize the dispatching of household battery storage by using grid variance and user revenues as optimizing goals. The results of this paper show that the behavioral economics incentive improves intention to buy the household battery energy storage by 10.7% without raising subsidies. By improving the energy dispatching strategy, peak-load shifting performance and user revenues are improved by 4.2% and 10.6%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]