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We present a novel methodology for the control of power unit commitment in complex ship energy systems. The usage of this method is demonstrated with a case study, where measured data was used from a cruise ship operating in the Caribbean and the Mediterranean. The ship's energy system is conceptualized to feature a fuel cell and a battery along standard diesel generating sets for the purpose of reducing local emissions near coasts. The developed method is formulated as a model predictive control (MPC) problem, where a novel 2-stage predictive model is used to predict power demand, and a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is used to solve unit commitment according to the prediction. The performance of the methodology is compared to fully optimal control, which was simulated by optimizing unit commitment for entire measured power demand profiles of trips. As a result, it can be stated that the developed methodology achieves close to optimal unit commitment control for the conceptualized energy system. Furthermore, the predictive model is formulated so that it returns probability estimates of future power demand rather than point estimates. This opens up the possibility for using stochastic or robust optimization methods for unit commitment optimization in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PV temperature significantly affects the module's power output and final system yield, and its accurate prediction can serve the forecasting of PV power output, smart grid operations, online PV diagnostics and dynamic predictive management of Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. This paper presents a dynamic PV temperature prediction model based on transient Energy Balance Equations, incorporating theoretical expressions for all heat transfer processes, natural convection, forced convection, conduction and radiation exchanges between both module sides and the environment. The algorithmic approach predicts PV temperature at the centre of the cell, the back and the front glass cover with fast convergence and serves the PV power output prediction. The simulation model is robust, predicting PV temperature with high accuracy at any environmental conditions, PV inclination, orientation, wind speed and direction, and mounting configurations, free-standing and BIPV. These, alongside its theoretical basis, ensure the model's wide applicability and clear advantage over existing PV temperature prediction models. The model is validated for a wide range of environmental conditions, PV geometries and mounting configurations with experimental data from a sun-tracking, a fixed angle PV and a BIPV system. The deviation between predicted and measured power output for the fixed-angle and the sun-tracking PV systems was estimated at −1.4% and 1.9%, respectively. The median of the temperature difference between predicted and measured values was as low as 0.5 °C for the sun-tracking system, and for all cases, the predicted temperature profiles were closely matching the measured profiles. The PV temperature and power output predicted by this model are compared to the results produced by other well-known PV temperature models, illustrating its high predictive capacity, accuracy and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a finite control-set model predictive control (FCS-MPC) based technique to reduce the switching loss and frequency of the on-grid PV inverter by incorporating a switching frequency term in the cost function of the model predictive control (MPC). In the proposed MPC, the control objectives (current and switching frequency) select an optimal switching state for the inverter by minimizing a predefined cost function. The two control objectives are combined with a weighting factor. A trade-off between the switching frequency (average) and total harmonic distortion (THD) of the current was utilized to determine the value of the weighting factor. The switching, conduction, and harmonic losses were determined at the selected value of the weighting factor for both the proposed and conventional FCS-MPC and compared. The system was simulated in MATLAB/Simulink, and a small-scale hardware prototype was built to realize the system and verify the proposal. Considering only 0.25% more current THD, the switching frequency and loss per phase were reduced by 20.62% and 19.78%, respectively. The instantaneous overall power loss was also reduced by 2% due to the addition of a switching frequency term in the cost function which ensures a satisfactory empirical result for an on-grid PV inverter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind energy has been widely used in renewable energy systems. A probabilistic prediction that can provide uncertainty information is the key to solving this problem. In this paper, a short-term direct probabilistic prediction model of wind power is proposed. First, the initial data set is preprocessed by a box plot and gray correlation analysis. Then, a generalized method is proposed to calculate the natural gradient and the improved natural gradient boosting (NGBoost) model is proposed based on this method. Finally, blending fusion is used in order to enhance the learning effect of improved NGBoost. The model is validated with the help of measured data from Dalian Tuoshan wind farm in China. The results show that under the specified confidence, compared with the single NGBoost metamodel and other short-term direct probability prediction models, the model proposed in this paper can reduce the forecast area coverage probability while ensuring a higher average width of prediction intervals, and can be used to build new efficient and intelligent energy power systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents the analysis of the influence of household appliances on the quality of the energy consumed by the end-user. The results of the research, then, concern the final consumer (the lowest level of the power grid). The research was conducted on 120 combinations of electrical appliances connected into a grid. Each combination consisted of three devices working simultaneously in a micro-grid. The obtained and statistically analyzed data proved that there are several types of appliances that have a great influence on the power quality (PQ) parameters changes. The results of the conducted experiments indicate the devices which influenced significantly the total harmonic distortion of voltage (THDV), the voltage frequency (FREQ) and the voltage fluctuation (V). Specific features of particular devices were examined in terms of their significance for the power quality deviation. This showed the most important features which should be considered while working out the prediction model. The future of smart grids resides in data analysis, predictive models and real-time optimization. One of the key characteristics is the reducing energy consumption generated by renewable energy sources. This phenomenon, namely looking for problems connected with sustainable power quality and their appropriate solution, is described in this article. We performed an extended analysis of the smart home appliances influence of individual quantities on a real model. Furthermore, we explored devices with a high impact on chosen power quality indicators. In the end, we discuss their specific behavior and relevance to the above-described phenomenon to improve the predictive model utility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy baseline is an important method for measuring the energy-saving benefits of chiller system, and the benefits can be calculated by comparing prediction models and actual results. Currently, machine learning is often adopted as a prediction model for energy baselines. Common models include regression, ensemble learning, and deep learning models. In this study, we first reviewed several machine learning algorithms, which were used to establish prediction models. Then, the concept of clustering to preprocess chiller data was adopted. Data mining, K-means clustering, and gap statistic were used to successfully identify the critical variables to cluster chiller modes. Applying these key variables effectively enhanced the quality of the chiller data, and combining the clustering results and the machine learning model effectively improved the prediction accuracy of the model and the reliability of the energy baselines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data centers (DCs) are becoming increasingly important in recent years, and highly efficient and reliable operation and management of DCs is now required. The generated heat density of the rack and information and communication technology (ICT) equipment is predicted to get higher in the future, so it is crucial to maintain the appropriate temperature environment in the server room where high heat is generated in order to ensure continuous service. It is especially important to predict changes of rack intake temperature in the server room when the computer room air conditioner (CRAC) is shut down, which can cause a rapid rise in temperature. However, it is quite difficult to predict the rack temperature accurately, which in turn makes it difficult to determine the impact on service in advance. In this research, we propose a model that predicts the rack intake temperature after the CRAC is shut down. Specifically, we use machine learning to construct a gradient boosting decision tree model with data from the CRAC, ICT equipment, and rack intake temperature. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method has a very high prediction accuracy: the coefficient of determination was 0.90 and the root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.54. Our model makes it possible to evaluate the impact on service and determine if action to maintain the temperature environment is required. We also clarify the effect of explanatory variables and training data of the machine learning on the model accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

District heating and cooling (DHC) is considered one of the most sustainable technologies to meet the heating and cooling demands of buildings in urban areas. The fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) concept, often referred to as ambient loops, is a novel solution emerging in Europe and has become a widely discussed topic in current energy system research. 5GDHC systems operate at a temperature close to the ground and include electrically driven heat pumps and associated thermal energy storage in a building-sited energy transfer station (ETS) to satisfy user comfort. This work presents new strategies for improving the operation of these energy transfer stations by means of a model predictive control (MPC) method based on recurrent artificial neural networks. The results show that, under simple time-of-use utility rates, the advanced controller outperforms a rule-based controller for smart charging of the domestic hot water (DHW) thermal energy storage under specific boundary conditions. By exploiting the available thermal energy storage capacity, the MPC controller is capable of shifting up to 14% of the electricity consumption of the ETS from on-peak to off-peak hours. Therefore, the advanced control implemented in 5GDHC networks promotes coupling between the thermal and the electric sector, producing flexibility on the electric grid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Joint grouting simulation is an important aspect of arch dam construction simulation. However, the current construction simulation model simplifies the temperature factors in joint grouting simulation, which leads to the difference between the simulation results and the actual construction schedule. Furthermore, the majority of existing temperature prediction research is based on deterministic point predictions, which cannot quantify the uncertainties of the prediction values. Thus, this study presents a real-time construction simulation method coupling a concrete temperature field interval prediction model to address these problems. First, a real-time construction simulation model is established. Secondly, this paper proposes a concrete temperature interval prediction method based on the hybrid-kernel relevance vector machine (HK-RVM) with the improved grasshopper optimization algorithm (IGOA). The hybrid-kernel method is adopted to ensure the prediction accuracy and generalization ability of the model. Additionally, the improved grasshopper optimization algorithm (IGOA), which utilizes the tent chaotic map and cosine adaptive method to improve the algorithm performance, is developed for the parameter optimization of HK-RVM. Thirdly, concept drift detection based on variable window technology is proposed to update the prediction model. Finally, an arch dam project in China is used as a case study, by which the superiority and applicability of the proposed method are proven. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, model predictive control (MPC) methods have been widely used to achieve the control of two-level voltage source inverters due to their superiorities. However, only one of the eight basic voltage vectors is applied in every control cycle in the conventional MPC system, resulting in large current ripples and distortions. To address this issue, a dual-vector modulated MPC method is presented, where two voltage vectors are selected and utilized to control the voltage source inverter in every control cycle. The duty cycle of each voltage vector is figured out according to the hypothesis that it is inversely proportional to the square root of its corresponding cost function value, which is the first contribution of this paper. The effectiveness of this assumption is verified for the first time by a detailed theoretical analysis shown in this paper based on the geometrical relationship of the voltage vectors, which is another contribution of this paper. Moreover, further theoretical analysis shows that the proposed dual-vector modulated MPC method can also be extended to control other types of inverters, such as three-phase four-switch inverters. Detailed experimental results validate the effectiveness of the presented strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays an important role in the economic dispatch of power systems. Obtaining accurate short-term load can greatly improve the safety and economy of a power grid operation. In recent years, a large number of short-term load forecasting methods have been proposed. However, how to select the optimal feature set and accurately predict multi-step ahead short-term load still faces huge challenges. In this paper, a hybrid feature selection method is proposed, an Improved Long Short-Term Memory network (ILSTM) is applied to predict multi-step ahead load. This method firstly takes the influence of temperature, humidity, dew point, and date type on the load into consideration. Furthermore, the maximum information coefficient is used for the preliminary screening of historical load, and Max-Relevance and Min-Redundancy (mRMR) is employed for further feature selection. Finally, the selected feature set is considered as input of the model to perform multi-step ahead short-term load prediction by the Improved Long Short-Term Memory network. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, two categories of contrast methods are applied: (1) comparing the model with hybrid feature selection and the model which does not adopt hybrid feature selection; (2) comparing different models including Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) using hybrid feature selection. The result of the experiments, which were developed during four periods in the Hubei Province, China, show that hybrid feature selection can improve the prediction accuracy of the model, and the proposed model can accurately predict the multi-step ahead load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electrical sector needs to study how energy demand changes to plan the maintenance and purchase of energy assets properly. Prediction studies for energy demand require a high level of reliability since a deviation in the forecasting demand could affect operation costs. This paper proposed a short-term forecasting energy demand methodology based on hierarchical clustering using Dynamic Time Warp as a similarity measure integrated with Artificial Neural Networks. Clustering was used to build the typical curve for each type of day, while Artificial Neural Networks handled the weather sensibility to correct a preliminary forecasting curve obtained in the clustering stage. A statistical analysis was carried out to identify those significant factors in the prediction model of energy demand. The performance of this proposed model was measured through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The experimental results show that the three-stage methodology was able to improve the MAPE, reaching values as good as 2%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PV (photovoltaic) systems are receiving the spotlight in Korea due to the Renewable Energy 3020 Implementation Plan (RE3020), which has the goal of reaching 20% for the proportion of renewable energy generation by 2030. Accordingly, the actual performance evaluation of PV systems to achieve the RE3020 has become more important. PV efficiency is mainly determined by various weather conditions (e.g., solar radiation) that affect the power generation of PV systems. However, the efficiency is also affected by changes in module surface temperature. In particular, the efficiency decreases when the module surface temperature rises. That is, the actual PV efficiency falls short of the rated efficiency. The estimation of module surface temperature is critical for evaluating the actual performance of PV systems. Many studies have been conducted to calculate the surface temperature. However, most of the previous studies focused on calculations of current surface temperatures using current environment data, which means that the previous studies have limitations related to timestep. That is, there is a lack of predictive models that calculate the future surface temperatures by using the current measured data. Therefore, this study developed a predictive model using an ANN (artificial neural network) algorithm to determine the surface temperature of PV modules for a future period of time. Then, this study evaluated the actual performance (i.e., power generation) with the predicted surface temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictive controllers have been extensively studied and applied to electrical drives, mainly because they provide fast dynamic responses and are suitable for multi-variable control and non-linear systems. Many approaches perform the prediction and optimization process on-line, which requires a high computational capacity for fast dynamics, such as, for example, the control of AC electric motors. Due to the complexity of embedding constraints in controller design, which demands a high computational capacity to solve the optimization problem, off-line approaches are one of the choices to overcome this problem. However, these strategies do not deal with the inherent constraints of the drive system, which significantly simplifies the design of the controller. This paper proposes a non-linear and multi-variable predictive controller to control the speed and rotor flux of an induction motor, where the constraints are treated after the controller design. Besides dealing with the constraints of the electric drive system, our proposal allows increasing the stability of the system when the model does not incorporate disturbances and when parameter incompatibilities occur. Several computer simulations and experimental tests were performed to evaluate the behavior of the proposed controller, showing good performance to track the controlled variables under normal operating conditions, under load disturbances, parametric incompatibility, and at a very low rotor speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regulating performance of the main steam temperature (MST) system concerns the economy and safety of the coal-fired power plant (CFPP). This paper develops an offset-free offline robust model predictive control (RMPC) strategy for the MST system of CFPP. Zonotope-type uncertain model is utilized as the prediction model in the proposed RMPC design owing to its features of higher accuracy, compactness of representation and less complexity. An offline RMPC aiming at the system robustness and computational efficiency is then developed to maintain the desired steam temperature in case of wide operating condition change. The proposed RMPC is realized by two stages: in the first stage, the RMPC law set, which is the piecewise affine (PWA) of the MST system state is designed offline; then in the second stage, the explicit control law is selected online according to the current state. To achieve an offset-free tracking performance, a manipulated variable target observer is employed to update the chosen RMPC law. The control simulations using on-site operating data of a 1000 MW ultra-supercritical power plant show that the proposed approach can achieve satisfactory control performance and online computation efficiency even under complicated operating conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To realize the distributed generation and to make the partnership between the dispatchable units and variable renewable resources work efficiently, accurate and flexible monitoring needs to be implemented. Due to digital transformation in the energy industry, a large amount of data is and will be captured every day, but the inability to process them in real time challenges the conventional monitoring and maintenance practices. Access to automated and reliable data-filtering tools seems to be crucial for the monitoring of many distributed generation units, avoiding false warnings and improving the reliability. This study aims to evaluate a machine-learning-based methodology for autodetecting outliers from real data, exploring an interdisciplinary solution to replace the conventional manual approach that was very time-consuming and error-prone. The raw data used in this study was collected from experiments on a 100-kW micro gas turbine test rig in Norway. The proposed method uses Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) to detect and filter out the outliers. The filtered datasets are used to develop artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a baseline to predict the normal performance of the system for monitoring applications. Results show that the filtering method presented is reliable and fast, minimizing time and resources for data processing. It was also shown that the proposed method has the potential to enhance the performance of the predictive models and ANN-based monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In any electric power system, the Transmission System Operator (TSO) requires the use of short-term load forecasting algorithms. These predictions are essential for appropriate planning of the energy resources and optimal coordination for the generation agents. This study focuses on the development of a prediction model to be applied to the ten main Spanish islands: seven insular systems in the Canary Islands, and three systems in the Balearic Islands. An exhaustive analysis is presented concerning both the estimation results and the forecasting accuracy, benchmarked against an alternative prediction software and a set of modified models. The developed models are currently being used by the Spanish TSO (Red Eléctrica de España, REE) to make hourly one-day-ahead forecasts of the electricity demand of insular systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern agriculture represents an economic sector that can mainly benefit from technology innovation according to the principles suggested by Industry 4.0 for smart farming systems. Greenhouse industry is significantly becoming more and more technological and automatized to improve the quality and efficiency of crop production. Smart greenhouses are equipped with forefront IoT- and ICT-based monitoring and control systems. New remote sensors, devices, networking communication, and control strategies can make available real-time information about crop health, soil, temperature, humidity, and other indoor parameters. Energy efficiency plays a key role in this context, as a fundamental path towards sustainability of the production. This paper is a review of the precision and sustainable agriculture approaches focusing on the current advance technological solution to monitor, track, and control greenhouse systems to enhance production in a more sustainable way. Thus, we compared and analyzed traditional versus model predictive control methods with the aim to enhance indoor microclimate condition management under an energy-saving approach. We also reviewed applications of sustainable approaches to reach nearly zero energy consumption, while achieving nearly zero water and pesticide use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) play an important role in feeding critical loads in the electric power systems such as data centers or large communication hubs. Due to the increasing power of these loads and frequent need for expansion or redundancy, UPS systems are frequently connected in parallel. However, when UPS systems are parallel-connected, two fundamental requirements must be verified: potential circulating currents between the systems must be eliminated and the load power must be distributed between the systems according to UPS systems availability. Moreover, a high-quality load voltage waveform must be permanently ensured. In this paper innovative control strategies are proposed for paralleled UPS systems based on Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC). The proposed strategies simultaneously provide: controlled load power distribution, circulating current suppression and a high-quality load voltage waveform. A new dynamic converters deactivation mechanism is proposed. This new technique provides improved overall system efficiency and reduced power switches stress. In this paper, two multilevel based UPS systems are parallel-connected. Each UPS contains two three-level Neutral Point-Clamped-Converters (3LNPC) and a three-level DC-DC converter. The presented experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategies in several operating conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Switched mode power converters are nonlinear systems, and it is a constant challenge to improve their modeling accuracy and control performance. In this paper, a State Switched Discrete-time Model (SSDM) is proposed, which achieves a higher accuracy at a high frequency than that of conventional state averaged models. Instead of averaging the converter states for approximation, the states within each switching cycle are considered in the modeling. Based on total differential equations of switching-ON and switching-OFF durations, the inductor current and output voltage within a cycle are accurately calculated, which derives the SSDM. Furthermore, a Digital Predictive Voltage Programmed (DPVP) control strategy is derived through the SSDM. Through voltage prediction, a suitable duty ratio is calculated that regulates the output voltage to its reference value in the minimum switching cycles. In this way, the converter achieves a very fast load/line transient response and reference tracking speed, and it exhibits a high stability under deviated inductance. Finally, the accuracy of SSDM and the system stability are proved by frequency response analyses and experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) possess many positive qualities when it comes to spatial raster data. Translation invariance enables CNNs to detect features regardless of their position in the scene. However, in some domains, like geospatial, not all locations are exactly equal. In this work, we propose localized convolutional neural networks that enable convolutional architectures to learn local features in addition to the global ones. We investigate their instantiations in the form of learnable inputs, local weights, and a more general form. They can be added to any convolutional layers, easily end-to-end trained, introduce minimal additional complexity, and let CNNs retain most of their benefits to the extent that they are needed. In this work we address spatio-temporal prediction: test the effectiveness of our methods on a synthetic benchmark dataset and tackle three real-world wind prediction datasets. For one of them, we propose a method to spatially order the unordered data. We compare the recent state-of-the-art spatio-temporal prediction models on the same data. Models that use convolutional layers can be and are extended with our localizations. In all these cases our extensions improve the results, and thus often the state-of-the-art. We share all the code at a public repository. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A problem of the switched reluctance drive is its natural torque pulsations, which are partially solved with finite control set model predictive control strategies. However, the continuous control set model predictive control, required for precise torque stabilization and predictable power converter behavior, needs sufficient computation resources, thus limiting its practical implementation. The proposed model predictive control strategy utilizes offline processing of the magnetization surface of the switched reluctance motor. This helps to obtain precalculated current references for each torque command and rotor angular position in the offline mode. In online mode, the model predictive control strategy implements the current commands using the magnetization surface for fast evaluation of the required voltage command for the power converter. The proposed strategy needs only two lookup table operations requiring very small computation time, making instant execution of the whole control system possible and thereby minimizing the control delay. The proposed solution was examined using a simulation model, which showed precise and rapid torque stabilization below rated speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the feasibility of multilevel dual-active bridge-inverter (DABMI) applications for grid-connected applications of a modern Model of Predictive Direct Power Control (MPDPC) based on the conservative power theory (CPT). In the case of unbalanced grid voltages, the objective of the study is to promote continued active and reactive energy in MPDPC without reducing efficiency such as transient response and current harmonics. The nature of the instantaneous p-q theory permits only one out of three control targets to be fulfilled. The proposed control approached directly regulates the instantaneous active and reactive power to achieve three particular control objectives namely sinusoidal and symmetrical grid current, cancelling twice of fundamental grid frequency reactive power ripples, and removing twice grid frequency active power ripple. The techniques of complicated Grid part sequence extraction are unnecessary and improved at no extra expense, as is the case with current MPDPC fault-tolerant approaches. The instantaneous power at the next sampling instant is predicted with the newly developed discrete-time model. Each possible switching state will then be evaluated in the cost function defined until the optimal state which lead to the minimum power errors is determined. In MATLAB/Simulink simulation, the proposed CPT-based MPDPC measures reliability and performance at balanced and unbalanced grid voltages then compared with the conventional and existing MPDPC The proposed method manages to achieve all of three control targets which generates sinusoidal grid currents and attenuates active and reactive power ripple of twice the grid frequency exactly at the same time without losing its critical efficiency including transient reaction and current harmonics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the intermittency and randomness of photovoltaic (PV) power, the PV power prediction accuracy of the traditional data-driven prediction models is difficult to improve. A prediction model based on the localized emotion reconstruction emotional neural network (LERENN) is proposed, which is motivated by chaos theory and the neuropsychological theory of emotion. Firstly, the chaotic nonlinear dynamics approach is used to draw the hidden characteristics of PV power time series, and the single-step cyclic rolling localized prediction mechanism is derived. Secondly, in order to establish the correlation between the prediction model and the specific characteristics of PV power time series, the extended signal and emotional parameters are reconstructed with a relatively certain local basis. Finally, the proposed prediction model is trained and tested for single-step and three-step prediction using the actual measured data. Compared with the prediction model based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, limbic-based artificial emotional neural network (LiAENN), the back propagation neural network (BPNN), and the persistence model (PM), numerical results show that the proposed prediction model achieves better accuracy and better detection of ramp events for different weather conditions when only using PV power data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate measurement of air flow rate is essential in automatic building control using the variable air volume (VAV) system. In order to solve the problems of the existing air flow measurement method and improve the accuracy of air flow control, this study developed a data-based multiple regression air flow prediction model. The independent variables used in the development of the predictive model were selected as the factors used for control and monitoring when operating with variable air flow rate in the existing air conditioning system. Data collection and correlation between independent variables and air flow rate of the terminal unit were analyzed. Using the IBM SPSS statistics version 25, an air flow rate prediction model was developed using multiple regression analysis. Reliability of model was evaluated by comparing the measured airflow. The relative error of −9.3% to 10.4% is shown when comparing the estimated air flow rate by the developed model with the measured air flow rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate forecasting of demand load is momentous for the efficient economic dispatch of generating units with enormous economic and reliability implications. However, with the high integration levels of grid-tie generations, the precariousness in demand load forecasts is unreliable. This paper proposes a data-driven stochastic ensemble model framework for short-term and long-term demand load forecasts. Our proposed framework reduces uncertainties in the load forecast by fusing homogenous models that capture the dynamics in load state characteristics and exploit model diversities for accurate prediction. The ensemble model caters for factors such as meteorological and exogenous variables that affect load prediction accuracy with adaptable, scalable algorithms that consider weather conditions, load features, and state characteristics of the load. We defined a heuristic trained combiner model and an error correction model to estimate the contributions and compensate for forecast errors of each prediction model, respectively. Acquired data from the Korean Electric Power Company (KEPCO), and building data from the Korea Research Institute, together with testbed datasets, were used to evaluate the developed framework. The results obtained prove the efficacy of the proposed model for demand load forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last few years, one of the most important challenges of power technologies has been the integration of traditional energy production systems and distributed energy resources. Large-scale photovoltaic systems and wind farms may decrease the quality of the electrical grid service, mainly due to voltage and frequency peaks and fluctuations. Besides, new functionalities, such as the operation in islanded mode of some portions of the medium-voltage grid, are more and more required. In this respect, a model predictive control for voltage and frequency regulation in interconnected local distribution systems is presented. In the proposed model, each local system represents a collection of intelligent buildings and microgrids with a large capacity in active and reactive power regulation. The related model formalization includes a linear approximation of the power flow equations, based on stochastic variables related to the electrical load and to the production from renewable sources. A model predictive control problem is formalized, and a closed-loop linear control law has been obtained. In the results section, the proposed approach has been tested on the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers(IEEE) 5 bus system, considering multiple loads and renewable sources variations on each local system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a computationally efficient and robust direct model predictive control (DMPC) technique with enhanced steady-state performance for power converters tied to the electric utility. The discrete space vector modulation (DSVM) method is considered in the design of the suggested DMPC, where virtual voltage vectors (VVs) besides the real ones are utilized for improving the steady-state response of the proposed controller. Furthermore, for averting the high computational burden and making the proposed control technique simple, a deadbeat (DB) function is employed for calculating the reference VV based on the required reference current. Subsequently, a discrete-time integral term is combined with this DB function to enhance the robustness of the suggested DMPC technique against variations of the model parameters. Finally, the best virtual or real VV is chosen by a certain quality function, which will be applied to the power converter in the next sample. The suggested technique is verified by simulation results and its performance is compared with the classical DMPC and voltage-oriented control (VOC). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to present the significance of predicting stochastic loads to improve the performance of a low voltage (LV) network with an energy storage system (ESS) by employing several optimal energy controllers. Considering the highly stochastic behaviour that rubber tyre gantry (RTG) cranes demand, this study develops and compares optimal energy controllers based on a model predictive controller (MPC) with a rolling point forecast model and a stochastic model predictive controller (SMPC) based on a stochastic prediction demand model as potentially suitable approaches to minimise the impact of the demand uncertainty. The proposed MPC and SMPC control models are compared to an optimal energy controller with perfect and fixed load forecast profiles and a standard set-point controller. The results show that the optimal controllers, which utilise a load forecast, improve peak reduction and cost savings of the storage device compared to the traditional control algorithm. Further improvements are presented for the receding horizon controllers, MPC and SMPC, which better handle the volatility of the crane demand. Furthermore, a computational cost analysis for optimal controllers is presented to evaluate the complexity for a practical implementation of the predictive optimal control systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microgrids (MGs) interest is growing very fast due to the environment urgency and their capability to integrate renewable energy in a flexible way. In particular, islanded MGs in which distributed energy resources (DERs) are connected to the infrastructure with power electronic converters have attracted the interest of many researchers of both academia and industry because management, control and protection of such systems is quite different from the case of traditional networks. According to their operation mode, MGs that power electronic converters can be divided into grid-forming, grid-feeding and grid-supporting inverters. In particular, grid forming inverters are asked to impose voltage and frequency in the MG. This paper aims to propose a model predictive control (MPC) based approach for grid-forming inverters in an islanded MG. The MPC strategy is implemented because of its capability to define the optimal control actions that contemporarily track the desired reference signals and accounts for equality and inequality constraints. The overall problem formulation (objective function and relevant constraints) is described step by step and considers the specificity of the considered DC source. The proposed approach allows for the obtaining of very good results in terms of readiness against disturbances, even if it requires being fed only by local measurements. In order to validate the developed method, this paper proposes an experimental validation of the designed MPC controller in order to show its correct operation on a real system in a power hardware in the loop set-up using a rapid control prototyping approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a single-phase five-level rectifier with coupled inductors is studied. First, a discrete mathematical model of a single-phase five-level rectifier is created in two-phase(αβ). A traditional single vector finite control set model predictive control (FCS-MPC) algorithm is improved to overcome the problems of a varying switching frequency, the large amount of time needed for calculation, and the inaccurate setpoint of current loop tracking. Then, the objective function of the system is established, and a simple objective function is used instead of an iterative optimization of the traditional FCS-MPC algorithm. At the same time, to eliminate the delay error and to reduce harmonic distortion, deadbeat control technology is introduced. Finally, the simulation and experimental results show that the improved model predictive current control algorithm not only retains the fast response of traditional model predictive control, but also has the advantages of fixed switching frequency, small calculation time, and small current steady-state error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction models in mobility and transportation maintenance systems have been dramatically improved by using machine learning methods. This paper proposes novel machine learning models for an intelligent road inspection. The traditional road inspection systems based on the pavement condition index (PCI) are often associated with the critical safety, energy and cost issues. Alternatively, the proposed models utilize surface deflection data from falling weight deflectometer (FWD) tests to predict the PCI. Machine learning methods are the single multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks as well as their hybrids, i.e., Levenberg–Marquardt (MLP-LM), scaled conjugate gradient (MLP-SCG), imperialist competitive (RBF-ICA), and genetic algorithms (RBF-GA). Furthermore, the committee machine intelligent systems (CMIS) method was adopted to combine the results and improve the accuracy of the modeling. The results of the analysis have been verified through using four criteria of average percent relative error (APRE), average absolute percent relative error (AAPRE), root mean square error (RMSE) and standard error (SE). The CMIS model outperforms other models with the promising results of APRE = 2.3303, AAPRE = 11.6768, RMSE = 12.0056 and SD = 0.0210. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last three decades the vast majority of electricity price forecasting (EPF) research has concerned day-ahead markets. However, the rapid expansion of renewable generation—mostly wind and solar—have shifted the focus to intraday markets, which can be used to balance the deviations between positions taken in the day-ahead market and the actual demand and renewable generation. A recent EPF study claims that the German intraday, continuous-time market for hourly products is weak-form efficient, that is, that the best predictor for the so-called ID3-Price index is the most recent transaction price. Here, we undermine this claim and show that we can beat the naïve forecast by combining it with a prediction of a parameter-rich model estimated using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). We further argue, that that if augmented with timely predictions of fundamental variables for the coming hours, the LASSO-estimated model itself can significantly outperform the naïve forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international crude oil market plays an important role in the global economy. This paper uses a variable time window and the polynomial decomposition method to define the trend term of time series and proposes a crude oil price forecasting method based on time-varying trend decomposition to describe the changes in trends over time and forecast crude oil prices. First, to characterize the time-varying characteristics of crude oil price trends, the basic concepts of post-position intervals, pre-position intervals and time-varying windows are defined. Second, a crude oil price series is decomposed with a time-varying window to determine the best fitting results. The parameter vector is used as a time-varying trend. Then, to quantitatively describe the continuation of the time-varying trend, the concept of the trend threshold is defined, and a corresponding algorithm for selecting the trend threshold is given. Finally, through the predicted trend thresholds, the historical reference data are selected, and the time-varying trend is combined to complete the crude oil price forecast. Through empirical research, it is found that the time-varying trend prediction model proposed in this paper achieves a better prediction than several common models. These results can provide suggestions and references for investors in the international crude oil market to understand the trends of oil prices and improve their investment decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complexity of online computation is a drawback of model predictive control (MPC) when applied to the Navier–Stokes equations. To reduce the computational complexity, we propose a method to approximate the MPC with an explicit control law by using regression analysis. In this paper, we extracted two state-feedback control laws and two output-feedback control laws for flow around a cylinder as a benchmark. The state-feedback control laws that feed back different quantities to each other were extracted by ridge regression, and the two output-feedback control laws, whose measurement output is the surface pressure, were extracted by ridge regression and Gaussian process regression. In numerical simulations, the state-feedback control laws were able to suppress vortex shedding almost completely. While the output-feedback control laws could not suppress vortex shedding completely, they moderately improved the drag of the cylinder. Moreover, we confirmed that these control laws have some degree of robustness to the change in the Reynolds number. The computation times of the control input in all the extracted control laws were considerably shorter than that of the MPC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a model predictive control (MPC) scheme with an enhanced active voltage vector region (AV2R) was developed and implemented to achieve better steady-state performance and lower total harmonic distortion (THD) of the output current for a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) inverter. Firstly, the existing MPC methods conducted with single vector and two vectors during one sampling period were analyzed and the corresponding AV2Rs were elaborated. Secondly, the proposed strategy was investigated, aiming at expanding the AV2R and improving the steady-state performance accordingly. A formal mathematical methodology was studied in terms of duty ratio calculation. Lastly, the proposed method was carried out through experimentation. For comparison, the experimental results of the three mentioned methods were provided as well, proving the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) and voltage regulation method based on model predictive control (MPC) for the two-stage grid-tied photovoltaic (PV) system, which can achieve MPPT and output voltage regulation of a PV system simultaneously. The MPPT algorithm based on MPC is implemented in a DC-DC boost converter. The reference voltage at maximum power point is obtained by dual step Incremental Conductance (I&C) algorithm under the rapidly varying illumination intensity, and the MPPT controller only needs to minimize one cost function of PV current, without pulse width modulation (PWM) module. To inject the generated PV power into the grid with high quality, this paper designs voltage regulation controller based on MPC to maintain the output voltage of the PV system at the desired value. The MPC controller outputs the optimal duty signal with the input and state constraints in the inner loop, and the PI controller in the outer loop is designed to improve the dynamic performance. The proposed method based on MPC was demonstrated using the SimPower systems tool in MATLAB/Simulink. Analysis and simulation results for the PV system show possible improvements on the closed-loop performance such as fast response and low overshoot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global consumption of dairy produce is forecasted to increase by 19% per person by 2050. However, milk production is an intense energy consuming process. Coupled with concerns related to global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, increasing the production of milk must be met with the sustainable use of energy resources, to ensure the future monetary and environmental sustainability of the dairy industry. This body of work focused on summarizing and reviewing dairy energy research from the monitoring, prediction modelling and analyses point of view. Total primary energy consumption values in literature ranged from 2.7 MJ kg−1 Energy Corrected Milk on organic dairy farming systems to 4.2 MJ kg−1 Energy Corrected Milk on conventional dairy farming systems. Variances in total primary energy requirements were further assessed according to whether confinement or pasture-based systems were employed. Overall, a 35% energy reduction was seen across literature due to employing a pasture-based dairy system. Compared to standard regression methods, increased prediction accuracy has been demonstrated in energy literature due to employing various machine-learning algorithms. Dairy energy prediction models have been frequently utilized throughout literature to conduct dairy energy analyses, for estimating the impact of changes to infrastructural equipment and managerial practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) have commonly been used in a wide spectrum ranging from industry to home appliances because of their advantages over their conventional counterparts. However, PMSMs are multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems with nonlinear dynamics, which makes their control relatively difficult. In this study, a novel model predictive control mechanism, which is referred to as the Runge-Kutta model predictive control (RKMPC), has been applied for speed control of a commercial permanent magnet synchronous motor. Furthermore, the RKMPC method has been utilized for the adaptation of the speed of the motor under load variations via RKMPC-based online parameter estimation. The superiority of RKMPC is that it can take the constraints on the inputs and outputs of the system into consideration, thereby handling the speed and current control in a single loop. It has been shown in the study that the RKMPC mechanism can also estimate the load changes and unknown load disturbances to eliminate their undesired effects for a desirable control accuracy. The performance of the employed mechanism has been tested on a 0.4 kW PMSM motor experimentally for different conditions and compared to the conventional Proportional Integral (PI) method. The tests have shown the efficiency of RKMPC for PMSMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the paper a comparative study of the two control structures based on MPC (Model Predictive Control) for an electrical drive system with an induction motor are presented. As opposed to the classical approach, in which DFOC (Direct Field Oriented Control) with four controllers is considered, in the current study only one MPC controller is utilized. The proposed control structures have a cascade free structure that consists of a vector of electromagnetic (torque, flux) and mechanical (speed) states of the system. The first investigated framework is based on the finite-set MPC. A short horizon predictive window is selected. The continuous set MPC is used in the second framework. In this case the predictive horizon contains several samples. The computational complexity of the algorithm is reduced by applying its explicit version. Different implementation aspects of both MPC structures, for instance the model used in prediction, complexity of the control algorithms, and their properties together with the noise level are analyzed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated by some experimental tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a hybrid control strategy for power converters, based on improved deadbeat control (DBC) and improved finite control set model predictive control (MPC), is proposed. The presented control strategy employs a switched method to achieve a fixed switching frequency while maintaining a fast transient time. Moreover, the proposal incorporates error correction to achieve superior robustness. A prototype of a single-phase voltage source rectifier is established to verify the performance of the proposal. The comparative results with conventional MPC are given and illustrate the merits of the proposed control method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advanced thermal control technologies have been continuously developed to complement conventional models and algorithms to improve their performance regarding control accuracy and energy efficiency. This study analyses the strengths and weaknesses of simultaneous controls for the amount of air and its temperature by use of on-demand and predictive control strategies responding to two different outdoor conditions. The framework performs the comparative analyses of an on-demand model, which reacts immediately to indoor conditions, and a predictive model, which provides reference signals derived from data learned. Two models are combined to make a comparison of how much more efficient the combined model operates than each model when abnormal situations occur. As a result, when the two models are combined, its efficiency improves from 20.0% to 33.6% for indoor thermal dissatisfaction and from 13.0% to 44.5% for energy use, respectively. This result implies that in addition to creating new algorithms to cope with any abnormal situation, combining existing models can also be a resource-saving approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effective thermal conductivity (λeff) of sands is a critical parameter required by applications in geothermal energy resources, geo-technique and geo-environment and in science disciplines. However, the availability of the reliable λeff data is not sufficient and predictive models are usually used in practice to estimate λeff. These predictive models may vary in complexity, flexibility, accuracy and applications. There is no universal model that can be applied to all soil types and full water content range. The choice of different models may result in distinctive estimates of λeff. The objectives of this study were to conduct an extensive review of the thermal conductivity models of sands and evaluate their performance with a large dataset consisting of various sand types from dry to saturation. A total of 14 models to predict λeff of sands were evaluated with a large compiled dataset consisting of 1025 measurements on 62 sands from 20 studies. The results show that the models of Chen 2008 (CS2008) and Zhang et al. 2016 (ZN2016) give the best estimates of thermal conductivity of sands, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.9 and RMSE = 0.3 W m−1 °C−1. These two models are potentially applied to accurately estimate thermal conductivity of sands of different types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electrical smart grids are complex MIMO systems whose operation can be noticeably affected by the presence of uncertainties such as load demand uncertainty. In this paper, based on a restricted representation of the demand uncertainty, we propose a robust economic model predictive control method that guarantees an optimal energy dispatch in a smart micro-grid. Load demands are uncertain, but viewed as bounded. The proposed method first decomposes control inputs into dependent and independent components, and then tackles the effect of demand uncertainty by tightening the system constraints as the uncertainty propagates along the prediction horizon using interval arithmetic and local state feedback control law. The tightened constraints' upper and lower limits are computed off-line. The proposed method guarantees stability through a periodic terminal state constraint. The method is faster and simpler compared to other approaches based on Closed-loop min–max techniques. The applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated using a smart micro-grid that comprises a wind generator, some photovoltaic (PV) panels, a diesel generator, a hydroelectric generator and some storage devices linked via two DC-buses, from which load demands can be adequately satisfied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposed a multi-objective guaranteed feasible connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) platoon control method for signalized isolated intersections with priorities. Specifically, we prioritized the intersection throughput and traffic efficiency under a pre-defined signal cycle, based on which we minimized fuel consumption and emissions for CAV platoons. Longitudinal safety was also considered as a necessary condition. To handle the aforementioned targets, we firstly designed a vehicular sub-platoon splitting algorithm based on Farkas lemma to accommodate a maximum number of vehicles for each signal green time phase. Secondly, the CAV optimal trajectories control algorithm was designed as a centralized cooperative model predictive control (MPC). Moreover, the optimal control problem was formulated as discrete linear quadratic control problems with constraints with receding predictive horizons, which can be efficiently solved by quadratic programming after reformulation. For rigor, the proofs of the recursive feasibility and asymptotic stability of our proposed predictive control model were provided. For evaluation, the performance of the control algorithm was compared against a non-cooperative distributed CAV control through simulation. It was found that the proposed method can significantly enhance both traffic efficiency and energy efficiency with ensured safety for CAV platoons at urban signalized intersections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate forecasting of the energy demand is crucial for the rational formulation of energy policies for energy management. In this paper, a novel ensemble forecasting model based on the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm for the energy demand was proposed and adopted. The ensemble model forecasts were based on multiple time variables, such as the gross domestic product (GDP), industrial structure, energy structure, technological innovation, urbanization rate, population, consumer price index, and past energy demand. The model was trained and tested using the primary energy demand data collected in China. Seven base models, including the regression-based model and machine learning models, were utilized and compared to verify the superior performance of the ensemble forecasting model proposed herein. The results revealed that (1) the proposed ensemble model is significantly superior to the benchmark prediction models and the simple average ensemble prediction model just in terms of the forecasting accuracy and hypothesis test, (2) the proposed ensemble approach with the ABC algorithm can be employed as a promising framework for energy demand forecasting in terms of the forecasting accuracy and hypothesis test, and (3) the forecasting results obtained for the future energy demand by the ensemble model revealed that the future energy demand of China will maintain a steady growth trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the effects of inaccurate DC bus voltage measurement are analyzed to model predictive current-controlled permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) drives. It is found that the selection of the optimal space vector is affected by inaccurate DC bus voltage measurements, and the shortest distance principle is proposed to evaluate the effects. With the under-voltage measurement, the actual q axis current is always larger than the reference value, and PMSM may be damaged by the over-current phenomenon. However, the actual q axis current is always smaller than the reference value with the over-voltage measurement, and the rated torque capacity cannot be properly used. The effects of the over-voltage measurement are more serious than those of the under-voltage measurement. Additionally, the larger DC bus voltage measurement error can result in more serious effects than with the over-voltage measurement. Considering the limited variation range of the actual DC bus voltage, the rated value can be set as the measured value and the effects can be neglected. However, the effects should be taken into account if the variation range of the actual DC bus voltage is large. All the theoretical analyses are verified by experimental results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the relationship between the early production data and the long-term performance of shale gas wells, including the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) and economics. The investigated early production data are peak gas production rate, 3-, 6-, 12-, 18-, and 24-month cumulative gas production (CGP). Based on production data analysis of 485 reservoir simulation datasets, CGP at 12 months (CGP_12m) was selected as a key input parameter to predict a long-term shale gas well's performance in terms of the EUR and net present value (NPV) for a given well. The developed prediction models were then validated using the field production data from 164 wells which have more than 10 years of production history in Barnett Shale, USA. The validation results showed strong correlations between the predicted data and field data. This suggests that the proposed models can predict the shale gas production and economics reliably in Barnett shale area. Only a short history of production (one year) can be used to estimate the EUR and NPV of various production periods for a gas well. Moreover, the proposed prediction models are consistently applied for young wells with short production histories and lack of reservoir and hydraulic fracturing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil-immersed transformer is one of the most important components in the power system. The dissolved gas concentration prediction in oil is vital for early incipient fault detection of transformer. In this paper, a model for predicting the dissolved gas concentration in power transformer based on the modified grey wolf optimizer and least squares support vector machine (MGWO-LSSVM) with grey relational analysis (GRA) and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is proposed, in which the influence of transformer load, oil temperature and ambient temperature on gas concentration is taken into consideration. Firstly, GRA is used to analyze the correlation between dissolved gas concentration and transformer load, oil temperature and ambient temperature, and the optimal feature set affecting gas concentration is extracted and selected as the input of the prediction model. Then, EMD is used to decompose the non-stationary series data of dissolved gas concentration into stationary subsequences with different scales. Finally, the MGWO-LSSVM is used to predict each subsequence, and the prediction values of all subsequences are combined to get the final result. DGA samples from two transformers are used to verify the proposed method, which shows high prediction accuracy, stronger generalization ability and robustness by comparing with LSSVM, particle swarm optimization (PSO)-LSSVM, GWO-LSSVM, MGWO-LSSVM, EMD-PSO-LSSVM, EMD-GWO-LSSVM, EMD-MGWO-LSSVM, GRA-EMD-PSO-LSSVM and GRA-EMD-GWO-LSSVM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A horizontal well with hydraulic fractures is key to forming a fracture network in oil shale for the generated hydrocarbon flows. By considering the influence of anisotropic strength, a prediction model is proposed for fracture initiation by studying different fracture initiation modes (FIMs) in oil shale: failure of the intact rock matrix and of the bedding planes. Through a case study on Nong'an oil shale, the influences of wellbore trajectory and bedding planes on the fracture initiation pressure (FIP), location (FIL), and FIM were analyzed and the induced changes in wellbore trajectory design were concluded. The preferred angle between the wellbore axis and the minimum horizontal principal stress was the same of 90° or 270°, when the lowest required FIP corresponded to the failure of the intact rock matrix. However, when the angle corresponded to the failure of the bedding planes, the preferred direction of the wellbore axis was away from the fixed direction and not corresponding to the lowest required FIP due to the fracture morphology. The error between the theoretical and experimental results ranges from 7% to 9%. This research provides a framework for the design of horizontal wellbore trajectories in oil shale, for easier fracture initiation and more complex fracture networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]