Search

Reservoir productivity prediction is a key component of oil and gas field development, and the rapid and accurate evaluation of reservoir productivity plays an important role in evaluating oil field development potential and improving oil field development efficiency. Fracture-vuggy reservoirs are characterized by strong heterogeneity, complex distribution, and irregular development, causing great difficulties in the efficient prediction of fracture-vuggy reservoirs' productivity. Therefore, a PSO-BP fracture-vuggy reservoir productivity prediction model optimized by feature optimization was proposed in this paper. The Chatterjee correlation coefficient was used to select the appropriate combination of seismic attributes as the input of the prediction model, and we applied the PSO-BP model to predict oil wells' production in a typical fracture-vuggy reservoir area of Tahe Oilfield, China, with the selected seismic attributes and compared the accuracy with that provided by the BP neural network, linear support vector machine, and multiple linear regression. The prediction results using the four models based on the test set showed that compared with the other three models, the MSE of the PSO-BP model increased by 23% to 62%, the RMSE increased by 12 to 38 percent, the MAE increased by 18 to 44 percent, the SSE increased by 23 to 62 percent, and the R-square value increased by 2 to 13 percent. This comparison proves that the PSO-BP neural network model proposed in this paper is suitable for the productivity prediction of fracture-vuggy reservoirs and has better performance, which is of guiding significance for the development and production of fracture-vuggy reservoirs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to address the challenge of accurately predicting nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission from diesel engines in transient operation using traditional neural network models, this study proposes a NOx emission forecasting model based on a hybrid neural network architecture combining the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. The objective is to enhance calibration efficiency and reduce diesel engine emissions. The proposed model utilizes data collected under the thermal cycle according to the world harmonized transient cycle (WHTC) emission test standard for training and verifying the prediction model. The CNN is employed to extract features from the training data, while LSTM networks are used to fit the data, resulting in the precise prediction of training NOx emissions from diesel engines. Experimental verification was conducted and the results demonstrate that the fitting coefficient (R2) of the CNN-LSTM network model in predicting transient NOx emissions from diesel engines is 0.977 with a root mean square error of 33.495. Compared to predictions made by a single LSTM neural network, CNN neural network predictions, and back-propagation (BP) neural network predictions, the root mean square error (RMSE) decreases by 35.6%, 50.8%, and 62.9%, respectively, while the fitting degree R2 increases by 2.5%, 4.4%, and 6.6%. These results demonstrate that the CNN-LSTM network prediction model has higher accuracy, good convergence, and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real-time monitoring of the battery thermal status is important to ensure the effectiveness of battery thermal management system (BTMS), which can effectively avoid thermal runaway. In the study of BTMS, driver behavior is one of the factors affecting the performance of the battery thermal status, and it is often neglected in battery temperature studies. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the dynamic heat generation of the battery in actual driving cycles. In this work, a thermal equivalent circuit model (TECM) and an artificial neural network (ANN) thermal model based on the driving data, which can predict the thermal behavior of the battery in real-world driving cycles, are proposed and established by MATLAB/Simulink tool. Driving behaviors analysis of different drivers are simulated by PI control as input, and battery temperature is used as output response. The results show that aggressive driving behavior leads to an increase in battery temperature of nearly 1.2 K per second, and the average prediction error of TECM model and ANN model is 0.13 K and 0.11 K, respectively. This indicates that both models can accurately estimate the real-time battery temperature. However, the computational speed of the ANN thermal model is only 0.2 s, which is more efficient for battery thermal management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many factors affecting the assembly quality of rotate vector reducer, and the assembly quality is unstable. Matching is an assembly method that can obtain high-precision products or avoid a large number of secondary rejects. Selecting suitable parts to assemble together can improve the transmission accuracy of the reducer. In the actual assembly of the reducer, the success rate of one-time selection of parts is low, and "trial and error assembly" will lead to a waste of labor, time cost, and errors accumulation. In view of this situation, a dendritic neural network prediction model based on mass production and practical engineering applications has been established. The size parameters of the parts that affected transmission error of the reducer were selected as influencing factors for input. The key performance index of reducer was transmission error as output index. After data standardization preprocessing, a quality prediction model was established to predict the transmission error. The experimental results show that the dendritic neural network model can realize the regression prediction of reducer mass and has good prediction accuracy and generalization capability. The proposed method can provide help for the selection of parts in the assembly process of the RV reducer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the extremely competitive environment of shipping, minimizing shipping cost is the key factor for the survival and growth of shipping companies. However, stricter rules and regulations that aim at the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions published by the International Maritime Organization, force shipping companies to increase the operational efficiency of their fleet. The prediction of a ship speed in actual seas with a given power by its engine is the most important performance indicator and thus makes it the "holy grail" in pursuing better efficiency. Traditionally, tank model tests and semi-empirical formulas were the preferred solution for the aforementioned prediction and are still widely applied. However, currently, with the increased computational power that is widely available, novel and more sophisticated methods taking into consideration computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are emerging. In this paper, we briefly present the different approaches in the prediction of a ship's speed but focus on ML methods comparing a representative number of the latest data-driven models used in papers, to provide guidelines, discover trends and identify the challenges to be faced by researchers. From this comparison, we can distinguish that artificial neural networks (ANN), being used in 73.3% of the reviewed papers, dominate as the algorithm of choice. Researchers mostly rely on physical laws governing the phenomena in the crucial part of data preprocessing tasks. Lastly, most researchers rely on data acquisition systems installed at ships in order to achieve usable results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Well planning for every drilling project includes cost estimation. Maximizing the rate of penetration (ROP) reduces the time required for drilling, resulting in reducing the expenses required for the drilling budget. The empirical formulas developed to predict ROP have limited field applications. Since real-time drilling data acquisition and computing technologies have improved over the years, we implemented the data-driven approach for this purpose. We investigated the potential of machine learning and deep learning algorithms to predict the nonlinear behavior of the ROP. The well was drilled to confirm the geothermal reservoir characteristics for the FORGE site. After cleaning and preprocessing the data, we selected two models and optimized their hyperparameters. According to our findings, the random forest regressor and the artificial neural network predicted the behavior of our field ROP with a maximum absolute mean error of 3.98, corresponding to 19% of the ROP's standard deviation. A tool was created to assist engineers in selecting the best drilling parameters that increase the ROP for future drilling tasks. The tool can be validated with an existing well from the same field to demonstrate its capability as an ROP predictive model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the thermal environment of large space buildings such as stadiums can vary depending on the location of the stands, it is important to divide them into different zones and evaluate their thermal environment separately. The thermal environment can be evaluated using physical values measured with the sensors, but the occupant density of the stadium stands is high, which limits the locations available to install the sensors. As a method to resolve the limitations of installing the sensors, we propose a method to predict the thermal environment of each zone in a large space. We set six key thermal factors affecting the thermal environment in a large space to be predicted factors (indoor air temperature, mean radiant temperature, and clothing) and the fixed factors (air velocity, metabolic rate, and relative humidity). Using artificial neural network (ANN) models and the outdoor air temperature and the surface temperature of the interior walls around the stands as input data, we developed a method to predict the three thermal factors. Learning and verification datasets were established using STAR CCM+ (2016.10, Siemens PLM software, Plano, TX, USA). An analysis of each model's prediction results showed that the prediction accuracy increased with the number of learning data points. The thermal environment evaluation process developed in this study can be used to control heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) facilities in each zone in a large space building with sufficient learning by ANN models at the building testing or the evaluation stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to develop a data-driven predictive model that can predict the supply air temperature (SAT) in an air-handling unit (AHU) by using a neural network. A case study was selected, and AHU operational data from December 2015 to November 2016 was collected. A data-driven predictive model was generated through an evolving process that consisted of an initial model, an optimal model, and an adaptive model. In order to develop the optimal model, input variables, the number of neurons and hidden layers, and the period of the training data set were considered. Since AHU data changes over time, an adaptive model, which has the ability to actively cope with constantly changing data, was developed. This adaptive model determined the model with the lowest mean square error (MSE) of the 91 models, which had two hidden layers and sets up a 12-hour test set at every prediction. The adaptive model used recently collected data as training data and utilized the sliding window technique rather than the accumulative data method. Furthermore, additional testing was performed to validate the adaptive model using AHU data from another building. The final adaptive model predicts SAT to a root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 0.6 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the large scale of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) power generation installations, accurate PV power forecasting is critical to the safe and economic operation of the electric power system. In the paper, by analyzing the influence of external ambient factors and the changing characteristics of PV modules with time, it is found that PV power generation is a nonlinear and time-varying process. This suggests that a certain single forecasting model is inadequate for representing actual generation characteristics, and it is difficult to obtain an accurate forecasting result. An adaptive back propagation (BP) neural network model adopting scrolling time window is proposed to solve the problem. Via an update of the training data of BP neural network with the scrolling time window, the forecasting model adapts to time and a changing external environment with the required modeling precision. Meanwhile, through evaluation of the forecasting performance in different time windows, an optimized time window can be determined to guarantee accuracy. Finally, using the actual operation data of a PV plant in Beijing, the approach is validated as being applicable for PV power forecasting and is able to effectively respond to the dynamic change of the PV power generation process. This improves the forecasting accuracy and also reduces computation complexity as compared with the conventional BP neural network algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate load forecasting is an important issue for the reliable and efficient operation of a power system. This study presents a hybrid algorithm that combines similar days (SD) selection, empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks to construct a prediction model (i.e., SD-EMD-LSTM) for short-term load forecasting. The extreme gradient boosting-based weighted k-means algorithm is used to evaluate the similarity between the forecasting and historical days. The EMD method is employed to decompose the SD load to several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residual. Separated LSTM neural networks were also employed to forecast each IMF and residual. Lastly, the forecasting values from each LSTM model were reconstructed. Numerical testing demonstrates that the SD-EMD-LSTM method can accurately forecast the electric load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of finding a correct forecast equation for photovoltaic electricity production from renewable sources is an important matter, since knowing the factors affecting the increase in the proportion of renewable energy production and reducing the cost of the product has economic and scientific benefits. This paper proposes a mathematical model for forecasting energy production in photovoltaic (PV) panels based on a self-organizing feature map (SOFM) model. The proposed model is compared with other models, including the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and support vector machine (SVM) models. Moreover, a mathematical model based on a polynomial function for fitting the desired output is proposed. Different practical measurement methods are used to validate the findings of the proposed neural and mathematical models such as mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation (R), and coefficient of determination (R²). The proposed SOFM model achieved a final MSE of 0.0007 in the training phase and 0.0005 in the cross-validation phase. In contrast, the SVM model resulted in a small MSE value equal to 0.0058, while the MLP model achieved a final MSE of 0.026 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9989, which indicates a strong relationship between input and output variables. The proposed SOFM model closely fits the desired results based on the R² value, which is equal to 0.9555. Finally, the comparison results of MAE for the three models show that the SOFM model achieved a best result of 0.36156, whereas the SVM and MLP models yielded 4.53761 and 3.63927, respectively. A small MAE value indicates that the output of the SOFM model closely fits the actual results and predicts the desired output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inaccurate forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is a great concern in the planning and operation of stable and reliable electric grid systems as well as in promoting large-scale PV deployment. The paper proposes a generalized PV power forecasting model based on support vector regression, historical PV power output, and corresponding meteorological data. Weather conditions are broadly classified into two categories, namely, normal condition (clear sky) and abnormal condition (rainy or cloudy day). A generalized day-ahead forecasting model is developed to forecast PV power generation at any weather condition in a particular region. The proposed model is applied and experimentally validated by three different types of PV stations in the same location at different weather conditions. Furthermore, a conventional artificial neural network (ANN)-based forecasting model is utilized, using the same experimental data-sets of the proposed model. The analytical results showed that the proposed model achieved better forecasting accuracy with less computational complexity when compared with other models, including the conventional ANN model. The proposed model is also effective and practical in forecasting existing grid-connected PV power generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) prediction model for controlling building heating systems. This model was used to calculate the ascent time of indoor temperature from the setback period (when a building was not occupied) to a target setpoint temperature (when a building was occupied). The calculated ascent time was applied to determine the proper moment to start increasing the temperature from the setback temperature to reach the target temperature at an appropriate time. Three major steps were conducted: (1) model development; (2) model optimization; and (3) performance evaluation. Two software programs--Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) and Transient Systems Simulation (TRNSYS)--were used for model development, performance tests, and numerical simulation methods. Correlation analysis between input variables and the output variable of the ANN model revealed that two input variables (current indoor air temperature and temperature difference from the target setpoint temperature), presented relatively strong relationships with the ascent time to the target setpoint temperature. These two variables were used as input neurons. Analyzing the difference between the simulated and predicted values from the ANN model provided the optimal number of hidden neurons (9), hidden layers (3), moment (0.9), and learning rate (0.9). At the study's conclusion, the optimized model proved its prediction accuracy with acceptable errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the problem of energy consumption prediction using neural networks over a set of public buildings. Since energy consumption in the public sector comprises a substantial share of overall consumption, the prediction of such consumption represents a decisive issue in the achievement of energy savings. In our experiments, we use the data provided by an energy consumption monitoring system in a compound of faculties and research centers at the University of Granada, and provide a methodology to predict future energy consumption using nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network with exogenous inputs (NARX), respectively. Results reveal that NAR and NARX neural networks are both suitable for performing energy consumption prediction, but also that exogenous data may help to improve the accuracy of predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate forecasting of carbon price is important and fundamental for anticipating the changing trends of the energy market, and, thus, to provide a valid reference for establishing power industry policy. However, carbon price forecasting is complicated owing to the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of carbon prices. In this paper, a combined forecasting model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and spiking neural networks (SNNs) is proposed. An original carbon price series is firstly decomposed into a series of relatively stable components through VMD to simplify the interference and coupling across characteristic information of different scales in the data. Then, a SNN forecasting model is built for each component, and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is used to determine the input variables for each SNN model. The final forecasting result for the original carbon price can be obtained by aggregating the forecasting results of all the components. Actual InterContinental Exchange (ICE) carbon price data is used for simulation, and comprehensive evaluation criteria are proposed for quantitative error evaluation. Simulation results and analysis suggest that the proposed VMD-SNN forecasting model outperforms conventional models in terms of forecasting accuracy and reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was conducted to develop an artificial neural network (ANN)-based prediction model that can calculate the amount of cooling energy during the setback period of accommodation buildings. By comparing the amount of energy needed for diverse setback temperatures, the most energy-efficient optimal setback temperature could be found and applied in the thermal control logic. Three major processes that used the numerical simulation method were conducted for the development and optimization of an ANN model and for the testing of its prediction performance, respectively. First, the structure and learning method of the initial ANN model was determined to predict the amount of cooling energy consumption during the setback period. Then, the initial structure and learning methods of the ANN model were optimized using parametrical analysis to compare its prediction accuracy levels. Finally, the performance tests of the optimized model proved its prediction accuracy with the lower coefficient of variation of the root mean square errors (CVRMSEs) of the simulated results and the predicted results under generally accepted levels. In conclusion, the proposed ANN model proved its potential to be applied to the thermal control logic for setting up the most energy-efficient setback temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Revealing the variation law of thermal diffusivity of sandy soil can provide a theoretical basis for the engineering design and construction in cold and arid regions. Based on experimental data of sandy soil samples, the distribution characteristics and influence of dry density and moisture content on thermal diffusivity are analyzed in this work. Then, the prediction model based on the empirical fitting formula and RBF neural network method for thermal diffusivity of frozen and unfrozen sandy soil is established, and the prediction accuracy of different prediction methods is compared. The results show that (1) thermal diffusivity of sandy soil is positively correlated with the particle size. With the increase of sand size, thermal diffusivity of sandy soil increases significantly. (2) Partial correlation among natural moisture content, dry density, and thermal diffusivity varies with different frozen and unfrozen conditions. (3) For unfrozen sandy soil, the binary RBF neural network prediction model is obviously better than that of the binary empirical fitting formula model. (4) The ternary prediction model has significantly higher prediction accuracy than that of the binary prediction model for frozen sandy soil, and the ternary RBF neural network model has the best prediction effect among the four methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The challenges of the modern world require transformations in the energy market towards the possible reduction of consumption and greater use of renewable sources. The conducted research of consumers of this market confirms that the behaviour in the field of increased use of renewable energy is burdened with cognitive errors and motivational factors, which makes it difficult to conduct quantitative research. Electricity demand forecasting can be modelled using selected quantitative methods. In this way, not so much the behaviour, but the result of the consumer's behaviour is predicted. The research presented in the article has been divided into two parts. The aim of the first one is to study the prospects of a greater share of renewable sources in obtaining energy in Poland, based on the attitudes and opinions of consumers on the retail energy market, legal regulations and the energy balance. The aim of the second part is to build forecasts of daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly electricity consumption in Poland, including the prediction of the RES share, using selected machine and deep learning methods. The analyses used the time series of daily electricity consumption in Poland from 2015–2021; the ENTSO-E data was obtained from the cire.pl website. Depending on the adopted forecast horizon, the forecasting method with the lowest MAPE error was exponential smoothing, SARIMA and NNETAR. An evolution of energy consumers' attitudes towards pro-ecological and pro-social sensitivity and understanding of the importance of RES for the economy was also observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in metering technologies and emerging energy forecast strategies provide opportunities and challenges for predicting both short and long-term building energy usage. Machine learning is an important energy prediction technique, and is significantly gaining research attention. The use of different machine learning techniques based on a rolling-horizon framework can help to reduce the prediction error over time. Due to the significant increases in error beyond short-term energy forecasts, most reported energy forecasts based on statistical and machine learning techniques are within the range of one week. The aim of this study was to investigate how facility managers can improve the accuracy of their building's long-term energy forecasts. This paper presents an extensive study of machine learning and data processing techniques and how they can more accurately predict within different forecast ranges. The Clarendon building of Teesside University was selected as a case study to demonstrate the prediction of overall energy usage with different machine learning techniques such as polynomial regression (PR), support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This study further examined how preprocessing training data for prediction models can impact the overall accuracy, such as via segmenting the training data by building modes (active and dormant), or by days of the week (weekdays and weekends). The results presented in this paper illustrate a significant reduction in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for segmented building (weekday and weekend) energy usage prediction when compared to unsegmented monthly predictions. A reduction in MAPE of 5.27%, 11.45%, and 12.03% was achieved with PR, SVR and ANN, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deterministic forecasting models have been used through the years to provide accurate predictive outputs in order to efficiently integrate wind power into power systems. However, such models do not provide information on the uncertainty of the prediction. Probabilistic models have been developed in order to present a wider image of a predictive outcome. This paper proposes the lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method to directly construct the lower and upper bound of prediction intervals (PIs) via training an artificial neural network (ANN) with two outputs. To evaluate the PIs, the minimization of a coverage width criterion (CWC) cost function is proposed. A particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm along with a mutation operator is further implemented, in order to optimize the weights and biases of the neurons of the ANN. Furthermore, wavelet transform (WT) is adopted to decompose the input wind power data, in order to simplify the pre-processing of the data and improve the accuracy of the predictive results. The accuracy of the proposed model is researched from a seasonal perspective of the data. The application of the model on the publicly available data of the 2014 Global Energy Forecasting Competition shows that the proposed WT-LUBE-PSO-CWC forecasting technique outperforms the state-of-the-art methodology in important evaluation metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different prediction models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to model the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 1226 kJ/(m2∙day) and 1136 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 2013 kJ/(m2∙day) and 2094 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency in the building industry is related to the amount of energy that can be saved through thermal improvement. Therefore, it is important to determine the energy saving potential of the buildings to be thermally upgraded in order to check whether the set targets for the amount of energy saved will be reached after the implementation of corrective measures. In real residential buildings, when starting to make energy calculations, one can often encounter the problem of incomplete architectural documentation and inaccurate data characterizing the object in terms of thermal (thermal resistance of partitions) and usable (number of inhabitants). Therefore, there is a need to search for methods that will be suitable for quick technical analysis of measures taken to improve energy efficiency in existing buildings. The aim of this work was to test the usefulness of the type Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models of inference model for predicting the energy efficiency of actual residential buildings that have undergone thermal improvement. For the group of 109 buildings a specific set of important variables characterizing the examined objects was identified. The quality of the prediction models developed for various combinations of input variables has been evaluated using, among other things, statistical calibration standards developed by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE). The obtained results were compared with other prediction models (based on the same input data sets) using artificial neural networks and rough sets theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the large number of grid connection of distributed power supply, the existing scheduling methods can not meet the demand gradually. The proposed virtual power plant provides a new idea to solve this problem. The photovoltaic power prediction provides the data basis for the scheduling of the virtual power plant. Prediction intervals of photovoltaic power is a powerful statistical tool used for quantifying the uncertainty of photovoltaic power generation in power systems. To improve the interval prediction accuracy during the non-stationary periods of photovoltaic power, this paper proposes a probabilistic ensemble prediction model, which combines the modules of data preprocessing, non-stationary period discrimination, feature extraction, deterministic prediction, uncertainty prediction, and optimization integration into a general framework. More specifically, in the non-stationary period discrimination module, the method of discriminating the difference of the power ratio difference is introduced and applied for identifying the non-stationary period of the data of photovoltaic output; in the deterministic point prediction module, a stacking- long-short-term memory neural network model is used for point forecasts; in the uncertainty interval prediction module, a BAYES neural network is introduced for probabilistic forecasts; in the optimization integration module, an optimization algorithm named Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II is applied for integrating and optimizing the results of the point forecast and probabilistic forecast. The proposed model is tested using two photovoltaic outputs and weather data measured from a grid-connected photovoltaic system. The results show that the proposed model outperforms conventional forecast methods to predict short-term photovoltaic power outputs and associated uncertainties. The interval width is reduced by 10–20%, and the prediction accuracy is improved by at least 10%; this can be a useful tool for photovoltaic power forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the intermittent nature of solar energy, accurate photovoltaic power predictions are very important for energy integration into existing energy systems. The evolution of deep learning has also opened the possibility to apply neural network models to predict time series, achieving excellent results. In this paper, a five layer CNN-LSTM model is proposed for photovoltaic power predictions using real data from a location in Temixco, Morelos in Mexico. In the proposed hybrid model, the convolutional layer acts like a filter, extracting local features of the data; then the temporal features are extracted by the long short-term memory network. Finally, the performance of the hybrid model with five layers is compared with a single model (a single LSTM), a CNN-LSTM hybrid model with two layers and two well known popular benchmarks. The results also shows that the hybrid neural network model has better prediction effect than the two layer hybrid model, the single prediction model, the Lasso regression or the Ridge regression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effectively avoiding methane accidents is vital to the security of manufacturing minerals. Coal mine methane accidents are often caused by a methane concentration overrun, and accurately predicting methane emission quantity in a coal mine is key to solving this problem. To maintain the concentration of methane in a secure range, grey theory and neural network model are increasingly used to critically forecasting methane emission quantity in coal mines. A limitation of the grey neural network model is that researchers have merely combined the conventional neural network and grey theory. To enhance the accuracy of prediction, a modified grey GM (1,1) and radial basis function (RBF) neural network model is proposed, which combines the amended grey GM (1,1) model and RBF neural network model. In this article, the proposed model is put into a simulation experiment, which is built based on Matlab software (MathWorks.Inc, Natick, Masezius, U.S). Ultimately, the conclusion of the simulation experiment verified that the modified grey GM (1,1) and RBF neural network model not only boosts the precision of prediction, but also restricts relative error in a minimum range. This shows that the modified grey GM (1,1) and RBF neural network model can make more effective and precise predict the predicts, compared to the grey GM (1,1) model and RBF neural network model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal energy is an important input of furniture components production. A thermal energy production system includes complex, non-linear, and changing combustion processes. The main focus of this article is the maximization of thermal energy production considering the inbuilt complexity of the thermal energy production system in a factory producing furniture components. To achieve this target, a data-driven prediction and optimization model to analyze and improve the performance of a thermal energy production system is implemented. The prediction models are constructed with daily data by using supervised machine learning algorithms. Importance analysis is also applied to select a subset of variables for the prediction models. The modeling accuracy of prediction algorithms is measured with statistical indicators. The most accurate prediction result was obtained using an artificial neural network model for thermal energy production. The integrated prediction and optimization model is designed with artificial neural network and particle swarm optimization models. Both controllable and uncontrollable variables were used as the inputs of the maximization model of thermal energy production. Thermal energy production is increased by 4.24% with respect to the optimal values of controllable variables determined by the integrated optimization model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

District heating and cooling (DHC) is considered one of the most sustainable technologies to meet the heating and cooling demands of buildings in urban areas. The fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) concept, often referred to as ambient loops, is a novel solution emerging in Europe and has become a widely discussed topic in current energy system research. 5GDHC systems operate at a temperature close to the ground and include electrically driven heat pumps and associated thermal energy storage in a building-sited energy transfer station (ETS) to satisfy user comfort. This work presents new strategies for improving the operation of these energy transfer stations by means of a model predictive control (MPC) method based on recurrent artificial neural networks. The results show that, under simple time-of-use utility rates, the advanced controller outperforms a rule-based controller for smart charging of the domestic hot water (DHW) thermal energy storage under specific boundary conditions. By exploiting the available thermal energy storage capacity, the MPC controller is capable of shifting up to 14% of the electricity consumption of the ETS from on-peak to off-peak hours. Therefore, the advanced control implemented in 5GDHC networks promotes coupling between the thermal and the electric sector, producing flexibility on the electric grid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electrical sector needs to study how energy demand changes to plan the maintenance and purchase of energy assets properly. Prediction studies for energy demand require a high level of reliability since a deviation in the forecasting demand could affect operation costs. This paper proposed a short-term forecasting energy demand methodology based on hierarchical clustering using Dynamic Time Warp as a similarity measure integrated with Artificial Neural Networks. Clustering was used to build the typical curve for each type of day, while Artificial Neural Networks handled the weather sensibility to correct a preliminary forecasting curve obtained in the clustering stage. A statistical analysis was carried out to identify those significant factors in the prediction model of energy demand. The performance of this proposed model was measured through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The experimental results show that the three-stage methodology was able to improve the MAPE, reaching values as good as 2%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PV (photovoltaic) systems are receiving the spotlight in Korea due to the Renewable Energy 3020 Implementation Plan (RE3020), which has the goal of reaching 20% for the proportion of renewable energy generation by 2030. Accordingly, the actual performance evaluation of PV systems to achieve the RE3020 has become more important. PV efficiency is mainly determined by various weather conditions (e.g., solar radiation) that affect the power generation of PV systems. However, the efficiency is also affected by changes in module surface temperature. In particular, the efficiency decreases when the module surface temperature rises. That is, the actual PV efficiency falls short of the rated efficiency. The estimation of module surface temperature is critical for evaluating the actual performance of PV systems. Many studies have been conducted to calculate the surface temperature. However, most of the previous studies focused on calculations of current surface temperatures using current environment data, which means that the previous studies have limitations related to timestep. That is, there is a lack of predictive models that calculate the future surface temperatures by using the current measured data. Therefore, this study developed a predictive model using an ANN (artificial neural network) algorithm to determine the surface temperature of PV modules for a future period of time. Then, this study evaluated the actual performance (i.e., power generation) with the predicted surface temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To realize the distributed generation and to make the partnership between the dispatchable units and variable renewable resources work efficiently, accurate and flexible monitoring needs to be implemented. Due to digital transformation in the energy industry, a large amount of data is and will be captured every day, but the inability to process them in real time challenges the conventional monitoring and maintenance practices. Access to automated and reliable data-filtering tools seems to be crucial for the monitoring of many distributed generation units, avoiding false warnings and improving the reliability. This study aims to evaluate a machine-learning-based methodology for autodetecting outliers from real data, exploring an interdisciplinary solution to replace the conventional manual approach that was very time-consuming and error-prone. The raw data used in this study was collected from experiments on a 100-kW micro gas turbine test rig in Norway. The proposed method uses Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) to detect and filter out the outliers. The filtered datasets are used to develop artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a baseline to predict the normal performance of the system for monitoring applications. Results show that the filtering method presented is reliable and fast, minimizing time and resources for data processing. It was also shown that the proposed method has the potential to enhance the performance of the predictive models and ANN-based monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the intermittency and randomness of photovoltaic (PV) power, the PV power prediction accuracy of the traditional data-driven prediction models is difficult to improve. A prediction model based on the localized emotion reconstruction emotional neural network (LERENN) is proposed, which is motivated by chaos theory and the neuropsychological theory of emotion. Firstly, the chaotic nonlinear dynamics approach is used to draw the hidden characteristics of PV power time series, and the single-step cyclic rolling localized prediction mechanism is derived. Secondly, in order to establish the correlation between the prediction model and the specific characteristics of PV power time series, the extended signal and emotional parameters are reconstructed with a relatively certain local basis. Finally, the proposed prediction model is trained and tested for single-step and three-step prediction using the actual measured data. Compared with the prediction model based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, limbic-based artificial emotional neural network (LiAENN), the back propagation neural network (BPNN), and the persistence model (PM), numerical results show that the proposed prediction model achieves better accuracy and better detection of ramp events for different weather conditions when only using PV power data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prognosis of lithium-ion batteries for their remaining useful life is an essential technology in prognostics and health management (PHM). In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid prediction method based on particle filter (PF) and extreme learning machine (ELM). First, we use ELM to simulate the battery capacity degradation trend. Second, PF is applied to update the random parameters of the ELM in real-time. An extreme learning machine prognosis model, based on particle filter (PFELM), is established. In order to verify the validity of this method, our proposed approach is compared with the standard ELM, the multi-layer perceptron prediction model, based on PF (PFMLP), as well as the neural network prediction model, based on bat-particle filter (BATPFNN), using the batteries testing datasets of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center. The results show that our proposed approach has better ability to simulate battery capacity degradation trends, better robustness, and higher Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prognosis accuracy than the standard ELM, the PFMLP, and the BATPFNN under the same conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Big Data applications have become increasingly popular with the emergence of cloud computing and the explosion of artificial intelligence. The increasing adoption of data-intensive machines and services is driving the need for more power to keep the data centers of the world running. It has become crucial for large IT companies to monitor the energy efficiency of their data-center facilities and to take actions on the optimization of these heavy electricity consumers. This paper proposes a Belief Rule-Based Expert System (BRBES)-based predictive model to predict the Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of a data center. The uniqueness of this model consists of the integration of a novel learning mechanism consisting of parameter and structure optimization by using BRBES-based adaptive Differential Evolution (BRBaDE), significantly improving the accuracy of PUE prediction. This model has been evaluated by using real-world data collected from a Facebook data center located in Luleå, Sweden. In addition, to prove the robustness of the predictive model, it has been compared with other machine learning techniques, such as an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), where it showed a better result. Further, due to the flexibility of the BRBES-based predictive model, it can be used to capture the nonlinear dependencies of many variables of a data center, allowing the prediction of PUE with much accuracy. Consequently, this plays an important role to make data centers more energy-efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the aim of improving the shortcomings of the traditional single hidden layer back propagation (BP) neural network structure and learning algorithm, this paper proposes a centrifugal pump performance prediction method based on the combination of the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) training algorithm and double hidden layer BP neural network. MATLAB was used to establish a double hidden layer BP neural network prediction model to predict the head and efficiency of a centrifugal pump. The average relative error of the head between the experimental and prediction obtained by the double hidden layer BP neural network model was 4.35%, the average relative error of the model prediction efficiency and the experimental efficiency was 2.94%, and the convergence time was 1/42 of that of the single hidden layer. The double hidden layer BP neural network model effectively solves the problems of low learning efficiency and easy convergence into local minima—issues that were common in the traditional single hidden layer BP neural network training. Furthermore, the proposed model realizes hydraulic performance prediction during the design process of a centrifugal pump. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning has been applied successfully for faulty wafer detection tasks in semiconductor manufacturing. For the tasks, prediction models are built with prior data to predict the quality of future wafers as a function of their precedent process parameters and measurements. In real-world problems, it is common for the data to have a portion of input variables that are irrelevant to the prediction of an output variable. The inclusion of many irrelevant variables negatively affects the performance of prediction models. Typically, prediction models learned by different learning algorithms exhibit different sensitivities with regard to irrelevant variables. Algorithms with low sensitivities are preferred as a first trial for building prediction models, whereas a variable selection procedure is necessarily considered for highly sensitive algorithms. In this study, we investigate the effect of irrelevant variables on three well-known representative learning algorithms that can be applied to both classification and regression tasks: artificial neural network, decision tree (DT), and k-nearest neighbors (k-NN). We analyze the characteristics of these learning algorithms in the presence of irrelevant variables with different model complexity settings. An empirical analysis is performed using real-world datasets collected from a semiconductor manufacturer to examine how the number of irrelevant variables affects the behavior of prediction models trained with different learning algorithms and model complexity settings. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy of k-NN is highly degraded, whereas DT demonstrates the highest robustness in the presence of many irrelevant variables. In addition, a higher model complexity of learning algorithms leads to a higher sensitivity to irrelevant variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries plays a significant role in battery health management. Battery capacity is often chosen as the Health Indicator (HI) in research on lithium-ion battery RUL prediction. In the rest time of batteries, capacity will produce a certain degree of regeneration phenomenon, which exists in the use of each battery. Therefore, considering the capacity regeneration phenomenon in RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries is helpful to improve the prediction performance of the model. In this paper, a novel method fusing the wavelet decomposition technology (WDT) and the Nonlinear Auto Regressive neural network (NARNN) model for predicting the RUL of a lithium-ion battery is proposed. Firstly, the multi-scale WDT is used to separate the global degradation and local regeneration of a battery capacity series. Then, the RUL prediction framework based on the NARNN model is constructed for the extracted global degradation and local regeneration. Finally, the two parts of the prediction results are combined to obtain the final RUL prediction result. Experiments show that the proposed method can not only effectively capture the capacity regeneration phenomenon, but also has high prediction accuracy and is less affected by different prediction starting points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of building energy consumption is heavily based on building characteristics and thus often deviates from the true consumption. Consequently, user-based estimation of building energy consumption is necessary because the actual consumption is greatly affected by user characteristics and activities. This work aims to examine the variation in energy consumption as a function of user activities within the same building, and to employ an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict user-based energy consumption. The study exploited the actual 24-h schedules of 5240 single-person households and computed the respective energy consumption using EnergyPlus V 8.8.0 software. The calculated values were clustered according to gender, age, occupation, income, educational level, and occupancy period and the difference among them was analyzed. The simulation results showed that for single-person households in Korea, females used more energy than males did, and the difference increased with age. Furthermore, unemployed and low-income individuals consumed more energy whereas consumption was inversely proportional to the educational level. Energy consumption increased with the occupancy period. Based on the simulation results and six user characteristics, the ANN model indicated a correlation between user characteristics and energy usage. This study analyzed the differences in energy usage depending on user activity and characteristics that affect building energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]