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In an environment marked by dual carbon goals and substantial fluctuations in coal market prices, coal power generation enterprises face an urgent imperative to make scientifically informed decisions regarding production management amidst significant market uncertainties. To tackle this challenge, this paper proposes a methodology for optimizing electricity generation side market decisions and assessing risks using quantile data-driven information-gap decision theory (QDD-IGDT). Initially, a dual-layer decision optimization model for electricity production is formulated, taking into account coal procurement and blending processes. This model optimizes the selection of spot coal and long-term contract coal prices and simplifies the dual-layer structure into an equivalent single-layer model using the McCormick envelope and Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) conditions. Subsequently, a quantile dataset is generated utilizing a short-term coal price interval prediction model based on the quantile regression neural network (QRNN). Interval constraints on expected costs are introduced to develop an uncertainty decision risk measurement model grounded in QDD-IGDT, quantifying decision risks arising from coal market uncertainties to bolster decision robustness. Lastly, case simulations are executed by using real production data from a power generation enterprise, and the dual-layer decision optimization model is solved by employing the McCormick–KKT–Gurobi approach. Additionally, decision risks associated with coal market uncertainties are assessed through a one-dimensional search under interval constraints on expected cost volatility. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed research methodology in cost optimization within the context of coal market uncertainties, underscoring its validity and economic efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the backdrop of the ongoing reforms within the electricity market and the escalating integration of renewable energy sources, power service providers encounter substantial trading risks stemming from the inherent uncertainties surrounding market prices and load demands. This paper endeavors to address these challenges by proposing a credibility theory-based information gap decision theory (CTbIGDT) to improve robustness of electricity trading under uncertainties. To begin, we establish credibility theory as a foundational risk assessment methodology for uncertain price and load, incorporating both necessity and randomness measures. Subsequently, we advance the concept by developing the CTbIGDT optimization model, grounded in the consideration of expected costs, with the primary aim of fortifying the robustness of electricity trading practices. The ensuing model is then transformed into an equivalent form and solved using established standard optimization techniques. To validate the efficacy and robustness of our proposed methodology, a case study is conducted utilizing a modified IEEE 33-node distribution network system. The results of this study serve to underscore the viability and potency of the CTbIGDT model in enhancing the effectiveness of electricity trading strategies in an uncertain environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed energy resources aggregators (DERAs) are permitted to participate in regional wholesale markets in many counties. At present, new market players such as aggregators participate in China's power market transactions. However, studies related to market trading strategy have mostly focused on centralized wind power and PV generation units. Few studies have been conducted on the decision-making strategies for DERAs in China's power market. This paper proposes an auxiliary decision-making model for distributed energy systems to participate in the day-ahead market with more reasonable trading strategies. Firstly, the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to deal with the uncertainties of wind power and photovoltaic (PV) output in the distributed energy system. Secondly, the information gap decision theory (IGDT) is used to deal with the uncertainty of price fluctuations in the spot electricity market. Thirdly, according to the different risk preferences of the DERAs facing market price fluctuation, the robust decision model and opportunity decision-making model in the day-ahead market are constructed, respectively. Finally, to deal with the irrational behavior of the DERAs' perception of "gain" and "loss" with market risks in China's two-tier market environment, the prospect theory and the marine predator's algorithm (MPA) are employed to obtain a day-ahead trading decision scheme for DERA. The analyses show that RDES with robust preference can withstand greater price volatility in the day-ahead market; they will reduce the bidding expectations and increase the system operating cost to improve the achievability of the expected revenue. However, DERAs under the opportunity strategy is more inclined to sell electricity to the market and offset system operating costs with revenue. The proposed model can provide strategic reference for DERAs with different risk preferences to bid in day-ahead market and can improve the level of aggregators' participation in electricity trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Virtual power plants (VPP) emerge as a new participant that, in order to maximise their visibility and income, represents a group of distributed energy resources (DER) in the electricity market. However, this DER aggregation brings challenges, such as fluctuating renewable sources dependent on weather variables and guaranteeing power set points. One way to deal with these intermittencies is to incorporate the energy storage system (ESS) into the VPPs. Therefore, this paper presents a novel bidding strategy of VPP that includes modelling the uncertainty associated with solar generation using information gap decision theory (IGDT) and the optimal sizing of ESS systems so as to deal with solar generation fluctuations. Additionally, a study is carried out to determine the economic viability of this methodology in the short, medium and long terms using the return on investment (ROI). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The unit commitment problem (UCP) is one of the key and fundamental concerns in the operation, monitoring, and control of power systems. Uncertainty management in a UCP has been of great interest to both operators and researchers. The uncertainties that are considered in a UCP can be classified as technical (outages, forecast errors, and plugin electric vehicle (PEV) penetration), economic (electricity prices), and "epidemics, pandemics, and disasters" (techno-socio-economic). Various methods have been developed to model the uncertainties of these parameters, such as stochastic programming, probabilistic methods, chance-constrained programming (CCP), robust optimization, risk-based optimization, the hierarchical scheduling strategy, and information gap decision theory. This paper reviews methods of uncertainty management, parameter modeling, simulation tools, and test systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address the problems of "difficult to consume" renewable energy and the randomness of power output, we propose the CHP unit joint-operation model with power to gas (P2G) and carbon capture system (CCS) technologies and analyze the operation cost, carbon emission, and "electric-heat coupling" characteristics of this model. A dispatch optimization model is constructed based on the information-gap decision theory under the strategy to further consider the interval uncertainty of renewable energy unit output and load forecast. The optimized-dispatching model effectively solves the fate of renewable unit output and electric-thermal load and provides dispatching strategies for decision-makers to balance risk and capital management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complexity of corrosion mechanisms in harsh offshore environments poses safety and integrity challenges to oil and gas operations. Exploring the unstable interactions and complex mechanisms required an advanced probabilistic model. The current study presents the development of a probabilistic approach for a consequence-based assessment of subsea pipelines exposed to complex corrosion mechanisms. The Bayesian Probabilistic Network (BPN) is applied to structurally learn the propagation and interactions among under-deposit corrosion and microbial corrosion for the failure state prediction of the asset. A two-step consequences analysis is inferred from the failure state to establish the failure impact on the environment, lives, and economic losses. The essence is to understand how the interactions between the under-deposit and microbial corrosion mechanisms' nodes influence the likely number of spills on the environment. The associated cost of failure consequences is predicted using the expected utility decision theory. The proposed approach is tested on a corroding subsea pipeline (API X60) to predict the degree of impact of the failed state on the asset's likely consequences. At the worst degradation state, the failure consequence expected utility gives 1.0822 × 10 8   USD. The influence-based model provides a prognostic tool for proactive integrity management planning for subsea systems exposed to stochastic degradation in harsh offshore environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, an operation strategy is introduced for distributed energy resources (DERs) in reconfigurable microgrids (MGs) to improve voltage profiles, minimize power losses, and boost the system performance. The proposed methodology aims to minimize power loss and energy not supplied (ENS) in MGs with an intelligent share of DERs and network reconfiguration in grid-connected and islanded modes. Due to the inherent uncertain nature of renewable DERs, these sources' power output is considered as an uncertain parameter, and its effect on the system characteristics is analyzed. The state-of-the-art information gap decision theory (IGDT) approach is utilized to explore different decision-making strategies in the energy scheduling of reconfigurable MGs to deal with such uncertainty. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the IEEE 33-bus radial system is utilized as the test MG. The simulation results show the importance of energy storage systems and reconfiguration in dealing with uncertainty and improving system reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]