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This paper proposes a fuzzy-based energy management strategy (EMS) to maximize the self-consumption from a PV installation with an energy storage system (ESS) for the residential sector adapted to the Ecuadorian electricity market. The EMS includes two control levels: Energy management at the end-user level (Fuzzy-based EMS and optimized by genetic Algorithm) and Energy management at the distribution grid level (Fuzzy-based EMS). Both strategies aim to maximize the use of the energy generated at home (taking into account the local solar generation profile), fulfilling the loads' demand and injecting the energy surplus into the main grid to be economically compensated. Additionally, this paper presents economical modeling according to the electricity market in Ecuador. The main results showed a cost reduction in the electricity bill up to 83.64% from the base case (residential consumption without a PV system). In the scenario of a community electricity market (still not contemplated under the Ecuadorian electricity law), the potential economic savings may be more than double compared to the exact case but only with a self-consumption system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, energy decarbonization due to integrating renewable energy sources presents important challenges to overcome. The intermittent nature of photovoltaic systems reduces power quality by producing voltage variations and frequency deviations in electrical system networks, especially in weak and isolated distribution systems in developing countries. This paper presents a power smoothing method for improving the low-pass filter and moving average for grid-connected photovoltaic systems. This novel method includes state-of-charge monitoring control of the supercapacitor's energy storage system to reduce the fluctuations of photovoltaic power at the point of common coupling. A case study for a microgrid in a high-altitude city in Ecuador is presented with exhaustive laboratory tests using real data. This research aims to improve energy power quality in electrical distribution systems to cope with the growth of renewable penetration. The results demonstrate significant power quality and stability improvements achieved through the proposed method. For instance, the power smoothing method effectively reduced power fluctuations by 16.7% with the low-pass filter, 14.05% with the ramp-rate filter, and 9.7% with the moving average filter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecuador is a country with several climate zones. However, their behaviour is similar throughout the year, with no peaks of extreme temperatures in the various seasons. This paper is a first approach to study the adaptive comfort behaviour in several areas and populations of the country. Considering the ASHRAE 55-2020 model, energy simulation programmes are applied not just to the current climate scenario but also to the climate change scenarios of 2050 and 2100. The results of locations are analysed and compared to determine their performance. Thanks to their climate characteristics, adaptive comfort models could be applied as a passive strategy, using natural ventilation for building indoor comfort improvement, particularly social dwellings. According to previous studies, some prototypes have not considered the climate determinants in each region. Given the geographic situation of the study areas, the adaptive comfort model could be applied in all cases. Percentages of application of natural ventilation and heating and cooling degree hours have similar behaviours according to the climatic region, with a variation greater than 30% among them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows the technical–economic assessment of two power systems based on renewable electricity to cover the energy consumption requirements of a drinking water treatment plant in the town of Pile, Ecuador, with a planning horizon of 15 years. A stand-alone and a grid-connected solar PV system were proposed to power this plant, which was designed considering the maximum daily potable water supply condition. This plant operated under two scenarios: (1) 12 h during daylight hours and (2) 24 h. Both schedules were proposed to assess the impact of PV power systems on plant operation. We modeled and optimized a total of four scenarios, where each scenario consisted of one of the proposed PV power systems and the plant with one of its operating schedules. Homer Pro software was used to size and find an optimal solution in each scenario, considering the net present cost (NPC) as the main criterion for optimization. The results showed that the change in the plant operation schedule significantly influenced the parameters of each scenario, such as component sizing, electricity production, initial capital, NPC, and electricity purchase/sale capacity from the plant as a grid power service user to the electric utility company. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyze energy pathways for a fossil fuel rich developing country towards an energy transition considering national and international oil availability using Ecuador as a reference. An integrated assessment model has been developed to simulate energy transition scenarios considering constraints on oil availability at the national and global level. Results show that if current trends in energy demand and supply persist, energy scarcity would start around 2040 due to depletion of national oil reserves and restricted access to foreign oil. This would trigger a degrowth in economic activity in sectors with high dependency on petroleum products. Scenarios with conservative efforts might partially revert the increasing use of fossil fuels supported by policies for energy efficiency and substitution of liquid fuels with electricity mainly from renewables. However, energy shortages would still be foreseeable as well as a decay of the economy. Under a maximum efforts scenario with an optimistic availability of national oil, a moderate-sustained economic growth could be feasible. This shows that oil would still play a key role during the transition. Furthermore, ambitious policies must be implemented in the short term to smooth the effects of displacing oil as energy and income source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research focuses on evaluating the importance of the use of renewable sources through distributed generation and its implication in the operation of electrical systems given that its incorporation has a direct impact on the expansion of the capacity of the networks, the minimization losses, and the impact on end users, all supported by the growth of demand. Under this context, the study focuses on incorporating distributed generation (DG), taking scenarios of base, medium, and peak demand and the modeling of the network, and subsequently evaluating the service quality indices and operating costs in addition to the electrical variables of the system. For this purpose, the present work proposes an optimization model to be solved using the Matlab (2021b) computational program together with GAMS (37.1.0 Major release (11 November 2021)) and mixed-integer nonlinear programming, determining the optimal insertion and determination of the maximum capacity of distributed generators while complying with the technical restrictions of the system and applying optimal AC power flows. Localizing and determining maximum capacity for distributed generation (DG) in electrical systems are critical aspects of modern grid planning and operation. With the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources and the growing complexity of energy demand patterns, efficient integration of DG has become paramount for ensuring grid reliability and sustainability. In this context, the analysis of DG localization and capacity determination considering demand scenarios emerges as a critical area of research in electrical engineering. By employing advanced optimization techniques such as mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINP), this research addresses the multidimensional challenges associated with DG deployment, including technical constraints, economic considerations, and environmental impacts. Understanding the contribution of this optimization approach to electrical engineering is fundamental for optimizing grid performance, enhancing renewable energy integration, and supporting the transition towards more resilient and sustainable energy systems. Consequently, investigating this optimization model represents a crucial step towards advancing the state-of-the-art in grid planning and facilitating the transition to a cleaner and more efficient energy future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this research was to analyze energy security in Ecuador, which is interconnected with water and food security. As a methodology, 21 indicators grouped into the following dimensions were analyzed: availability, infrastructure, energy prices, efficiency, social impact, environment and governance. For each indicator, a cross-sectional analysis was carried out with the countries of Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, along with a longitudinal analysis from 2011 to 2021. The main contribution of this study is the characterization of the Ecuadorian energy system as available, accessible, affordable and renewable in an electrical matrix but inefficient and heavily dependent on fiscal resources. The factors that may affect Ecuador's energy security were determined to be the risk of a reduction in income due to it becoming a net importer of energy, climate change, socio-environmental conflicts, poor diversification, energy subsidies and weak governance. A policy is proposed aimed at decoupling development from fossil fuels, with a systemic vision considering the complexity of interactions with other economic sectors, such as water and food, among others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows the technical–economic, operational and environmental feasibility of four off-grid hybrid power systems to supply energy to the Cerrito de los Morreños community in Ecuador. These configurations consist of combinations of diesel generators, solar photovoltaic systems, and battery energy storage systems. Each configuration was simulated and the results were analyzed for two different load conditions: (1) the existing load profile and (2) a reduced load profile by incorporating an energy efficiency initiative. Homer Pro software was used to perform the simulations. The planning horizon for the simulations was selected to be 15 years. The results showed the diesel/photovoltaic/battery configuration with energy efficiency showed the best performance, which was achieved with a photovoltaic system of 160 kWp, the existing generator of 165 kW and a storage system of 283 kWh. The stand-alone diesel generator and photovoltaic/diesel configurations showed higher Net Present Costs, instability problems and higher CO2 emissions. Additionally, the configurations without energy efficiency had increases of between 15% and 40% higher costs compared to their respective energy-efficient scenarios. The information in this work could be useful for some organizations in Ecuador who are interested in investing in rural electrification projects with renewable energy to reduce and/or compensate their CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ecuador's expansion plans for the power sector promote the exploitation of hydro power potential, natural gas and a small share of alternative renewable energies. In 2019, electricity generation reached 76.3% from hydroelectric power, 21.9% from thermal plants and 1.8% from other renewable resources. Although the power energy mix is mainly based on renewable technologies, the total energy demand is still dependent on fossil fuels, which is the case of the transport sector that alone accounted for 50% of the total primary energy consumed in the country. This paper analyzes the pathway to develop a clean and diversified electricity mix, covering the demand of three specific development levels of electric transportation. The linear optimization model (urbs) and the Ecuador Land Use and Energy Netwrok Analysis (ELENA) are used to optimize the expansion of the power system in the period from 2020 to 2050. Results show that reaching an electricity mix 100% based on renewable energies is possible and still cover a highly electrified transport that includes 47.8% of land passenger, and 5.9% of land freight transport. Therefore, the electrification of this sector is a viable alternative for the country to rely on its own energy resources, while reinforcing its future climate change mitigation commitments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are no methodologies in the literature for estimating the temporal and spatial distribution of consumption drivers for the residential sector of a region or country. Factors such as energy requirement, population density, outdoor temperature, and socioeconomic aspects are considered the major drivers of consumption and have been found to directly influence residential energy consumption. In this study, a methodology is proposed to evaluate the impact of the above drivers in domestic energy consumption in Ecuador between 2010 and 2020 using publicly available data. This methodology aims to provide a spatiotemporal approach to estimate high-resolution gridded datasets for a 10-year period, 2010–2020, assessing seven energy drivers: (1) gridded population density, (2) gridded space heating requirements, (3) gridded space cooling requirements, (4) gridded water heating requirements, (5) gridded Gross Domestic Product (GDP), (6) gridded per capita GDP, and (7) the Human Development Index (HDI). Drivers 1 to 6 were analyzed at one square kilometer (1 km2), whereas HDI was analyzed at the city level. These results can be used to evaluate energy-planning strategies in a range of sustainable scenarios. This methodology can be used to evaluate a range of consumption drivers to evaluate long-term energy policies to reach the net-zero target by midcentury. The proposed methodology can be reproduced in other countries and regions. Future research could explore the spatiotemporal correlation of the consumption drivers provided in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a technical, economic, and environmental analysis and optimization of the impact of the reduction of diesel fuel subsidy in the design of an off-grid hybrid power system (OHPS). The OHPS includes a diesel generator, battery energy storage system (BESS), and a solar power system (SPS). This impact will focus on the electricity production levels of each of the OHPS components according to the increase of the fuel price and the SPS size. The Bellavista community in Ecuador was selected as the case study for this work. In this South American country, the government has begun a gradual increase in the diesel fuel price until it reaches international prices. Fifteen scenarios of OHPSs were simulated, in Homer Pro software, considering three SPS sizes and varying the diesel fuel price in five values. The annual load profile for the simulations was built based on the information of a previous study in this community. The results showed that for lower fuel prices (USD$0.26/L and USD$0.35/L), the OHPSs worked mostly with their diesel generators with reduced use of their BESSs. However, there was a higher penetration of the power delivered from the SPSs and BESSs, with higher fuel prices (USD$0.44/L, USD$0.53/L, and USD$0.62/L). These OHPSs considerably reduced their CO2 emissions compared with the standalone diesel generator scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a methodology to calculate day-ahead wind speed predictions based on historical measurements done by weather stations. The methodology was tested for three locations: Colombia, Ecuador, and Spain. The data is input into the process in two ways: (1) As a single time series containing all measurements, and (2) as twenty-four separate parallel sequences, corresponding to the values of wind speed at each of the 24 h in the day over several months. The methodology relies on the use of three non-parametric techniques: Least-squares support vector machines, empirical mode decomposition, and the wavelet transform. Moreover, the traditional and simple auto-regressive model is applied. The combination of the aforementioned techniques results in nine methods for performing wind prediction. Experiments using a matlab implementation showed that the least-squares support vector machine using data as a single time series outperformed the other combinations, obtaining the least root mean square error (RMSE). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, diesel combustion is being banned due to the NOx and PM2.5 emissions impact on air quality. The bus sector is being electrified and is increasing its use of alternative fuels, such as natural gas (in spark ignition engines) and bioethanol (in compression ignition engines), to reduce such harmful emissions. Even if a diesel bus is equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR), its NOx emissions are reduced its but produces more NH3 emissions that are PM2.5 precursors. In developing countries, the air quality is still barely monitored, however, the air quality issue is well known and is being addressed. Moreover, the Ecuadorian sugar cane industry is seeking ways to increase its ethanol production. This is the ideal framework to explore a new technology and energy source in developing economies such as Ecuador. This paper explores the impact of the Ecuadorian diesel bus fleet conversion to hybrid compression ignition ethanol (HEV-ED95), hybrid diesel and plug-in hybrid flex-fuel using electricity and internal combustion engine ICE-E20 and ICE-E100. The impacts are measured in terms of final energy consumption, criteria pollutant emissions (NH3, NOx, PM2.5) and 100 years global warming potential in a well-to-wheels framework. For the tank-to-wheels data the method follows the typical values of conversion efficiency from final to useful energy (cross checked with a microsimulation model), the Tier 2 European Environmental Agency approach combined with ethanol influence on compression ratio, lower heating value, criteria emissions taken from a literature review, and well-to-tank emission factors for electricity (10–58% thermal natural gas or coal powerplant contribution), for ethanol from banana industry wastes (ED95, E20 and E100), gasoline and diesel from US databases. A discussion on whether sugarcane biorefineries are necessary is highlighted in the results. All input parameters have an uncertainty range between a minimum and a maximum and the probability for each is giving by a uniform distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hybrid energy systems (HESs) generate electricity from multiple energy sources that complement each other. Recently, due to the reduction in costs of photovoltaic (PV) modules and wind turbines, these types of systems have become economically competitive. In this study, a mathematical programming model is applied to evaluate the techno-economic feasibility of autonomous units located in two isolated areas of Ecuador: first, the province of Galapagos (subtropical island) and second, the province of Morona Santiago (Amazonian tropical forest). The two case studies suggest that HESs are potential solutions to reduce the dependence of rural villages on fossil fuels and viable mechanisms to bring electrical power to isolated communities in Ecuador. Our results reveal that not only from the economic but also from the environmental point of view, for the case of the Galapagos province, a hybrid energy system with a PV–wind–battery configuration and a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) equal to 0.36 $/kWh is the optimal energy supply system. For the case of Morona Santiago, a hybrid energy system with a PV–diesel–battery configuration and an LCOE equal to 0.37 $/kWh is the most suitable configuration to meet the load of a typical isolated community in Ecuador. The proposed optimization model can be used as a decision-support tool for evaluating the viability of autonomous HES projects at any other location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]