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Around 65% of the mitigation needed for the targeted net-zero carbon aviation emissions in 2050 is expected to come from Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs). In this study, an alternative gasification-driven Biomass-to-Liquid (BtL) concept for the production of SAFs is introduced and evaluated. In particular, a fuel synthesis scheme based on the double-stage fermentation of the produced syngas (syngas → acetic acid → TAGs) is assessed instead of the conventional Fischer-Tropsch (FT) or Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) synthesis. The objective of the present work is the techno-economic evaluation of a large-scale (200 MWth) replication of the mentioned BtL concept, whose performance has been simulated in Aspen PlusTM (V.11) with reasonable upscaling considerations and models validated at a pilot scale. The estimated baseline Total Capital Investment (TCI) of €577 million lies in the typical range of €500–700 million that many recent techno-economic studies adopt for gasification-driven BtL plants of similar capacity, while the estimated annual operating costs of €50 million correspond to a 15–40% OpEx reduction compared to such plants. A discounted cash flow analysis was carried out, and a baseline Minimum Jet Selling Price (MJSP) equal to 1.83 €/L was calculated, while a range of 1.38–2.27 €/L emerged from the sensitivity analysis. This study sets the biological conversion of gasification-derived syngas into triglycerides (TAGs) as a promising alternative route for the production of SAFs. In general, gasification-driven BtL pathways, led by the relatively mature FT and AtJ technologies, are capable of thriving in the coming years based on their capability of advanced feedstock flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of renewable energy sources has become strategic in the production of electricity worldwide due to global efforts to increase energy efficiency and achieve a net zero carbon footprint. Hybrid systems can maximize stability and reduce costs by combining multiple energy sources. A conventional metric, such as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), that is appropriate for assessing the cost-effectiveness of an option may not be appropriate when evaluating the economic feasibility of hybrid systems. This study proposes a stochastic discounted cash flow model (DCF) to assess the economic viability of a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) in Brazil. The objective is to determine the combinations that will provide the highest 50th percentile internal rate of return (IRR) and the lowest coefficient of variation (CV). Model variables include capital expenditures (CAPEX), operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, sectoral charges, taxes, and long-term energy production metrics. The results demonstrate that the synergies modeled contributed to the higher economic outcomes for the HRES obtained by combining both energy sources rather than opting for a stand-alone configuration. A wind-dominant combination of 60% wind was able to increase the 50th percentile of the IRR, while a solar-dominant combination of 65% solar minimized the CV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 24 billion pieces of surgical mask waste (WM) were generated in the EU region, with an acute shortage of their management and recycling. Pyrolysis and gasification are among the most promising treatments that were proposed to dispose of WMs and convert them into pyrolysis oil and hydrogen-rich syngas. This work aimed to investigate the techno-economic analysis (TEA) of both treatments in order to assess the feasibility of scaling up. The TEA was carried out using a discounted cash flow model and its data were collected from practical experiments conducted using a fluidised bed pyrolysis reactor and bubbling fluidised bed gasifier system with a capacity of 0.2 kg/h and 1 kg/h, respectively, then upscaling to one tonne/h. The technological evaluation was made based on the optimal conditions that could produce the maximum amount of pyrolysis oil (42.3%) and hydrogen-rich syngas (89.7%). These treatments were also compared to the incineration of WMs as a commercial solution. The discounted payback, simple payback, net present value (NPV), production cost, and internal rate of return (IRR) were the main indicators used in the economic feasibility analysis. Sensitivity analysis was performed using SimLab software with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. The results showed that the production cost of the main variables was estimated at 45.4 EUR/t (gate fee), 71.7 EUR/MWh (electricity), 30.5 EUR/MWh (heat), 356 EUR/t (oil), 221 EUR/t (gaseous), 237 EUR/t (char), and 257 EUR/t (syngas). Meanwhile, the IRR results showed that gasification (12.51%) and incineration (7.56%) have better economic performance, while pyrolysis can produce less revenue (1.73%). Based on the TEA results, it is highly recommended to use the gasification process to treat WMs, yielding higher revenue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the feasibility of rice straw for energy production in Cambodia. The potential areas for a 10 MW biomass-fired power plant installation are estimated based on rice straw availability displayed in a graphic information system (GIS). The discounted cash flow (DCF) method on the profitability index (PI) was executed by Mathlab software, which was used to determine the period of the power plant profitability. The reduction of CO and CO2 emissions from the proposed rice straw biomass-fired power plant with 10 MW capacity was calculated and compared with the coal-fired power plant and open field burning. Prey Veng, Takeo, and Battambang are potential provinces that have an estimated rice straw source of 804,796 t/annum, 720,040 t/annum, and 603,273 t/annum, respectively. Within a 20-year project, the biomass-fired power plant can reach profitability between six and ten years with the operation of the rice-straw price of 20 USD/t to 40 USD/t. The total energy produced by these potential areas is 1251 GWh/annum, with a CO2 emission avoidance of 1.06 million t/annum compared to the coal-fired power plant operation. Simultaneously, the emission savings of the biomass-fired power plant compared to open-field burning are 0.61 million t/annum of CO2 and 0.02 million t/annum of CO in the study site. The findings are prospectively essential for further designing of a small-scale biomass-fired power plant in Cambodia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the transportation sector is increasing, and boil-off gas (BOG) management systems are considered viable options to increase economic efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions at LNG refueling stations. The present study proposed an economically optimized method by investigating four refueling station scenarios, including different BOG management systems. Among the four scenarios, the scenario in which compressed natural gas was produced from BOG had the lowest minimum selling price (MSP) and was the most economical. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted for the economically optimal scenario, which identified the factors with the most influential impact and their uncertainties on the MSP. Finally, to determine the feasibility of the business through profitability analysis, the net present value, discounted payback period, and present value ratio due to changes in the discount rate were presented, and the discounted cash flow rate of return was found to be 13.22%. As a result of this study, a BOG management system can contribute to improving the economic feasibility for LNG refueling stations by reliquefying BOG and re-selling it (the most efficient way is scenario 4) and will provide an economical guide for countries with much demand for LNG in the transport sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic feasibility analysis is essential in the decision-making process regarding investment in photovoltaic projects. Project profitability must be measured based not only on the costs and revenues, but also on the climatic particularities of the different locations. Therefore, performing simulations of technical and economic performance of photovoltaic models is fundamental. Thus, the objective of this study was to analyze deterministic and stochastic models of investments in two types of photovoltaic systems, one incorporated into the enterprise's architecture (a BIPV system) and the other, a conventional one, in different Brazilian locations, covering the predominant climatic factors in the country. The methodological proposal consisted of choosing a city in Brazil with each predominant climate type and compiling its data on irradiation, monthly sunshine hours, and tariffs of the electric power concessionaire, to simulate the electrical generation performance of the proposed photovoltaic systems and their profitability. For the economic analysis, the cumulative probability of positive Net Present Value (NPV) returns was obtained through deterministic simulations in all municipalities. Only the municipality of Pau dos Ferros-RN was chosen to perform 10,000 stochastic simulations, and its cumulative probabilities of positive NPV returns were obtained. In both models of photovoltaic technology analyzed and simulation logics, 100% of the NPVs were positive, indicating profitable cash flows in all scenarios. However, some municipalities obtained better results than others when the climate types favored sunny weather. Moreover, although all cases returned positive NPVs, the conventional model proved to be more economically attractive than BIPV system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy economy is continually evolving in response to socio-political factors in the nature of primary energy sources, their conversions to useful forms, such as electricity and heat, and their utilization in different sectors. Nuclear energy has a crucial role to play in the evolution of energy economy due to its clean and non-carbon-emitting characteristics. A techno-economic analysis was undertaken to establish the viability of selling heat along with electricity for an advanced 100 MWth small modular reactor (SMR) and four nuclear hybrid energy system (NHES) configurations featuring the SMR paired with chemical heat pump (ChHP) systems providing a thermal output ranging from 1 to 50 MWth. Net present value, payback period, discounted cash flow rate of return, and levelized cost of energy were evaluated for these systems for different regions of U.S. reflecting a range of electricity and thermal energy costs. The analysis indicated that selling heat to high temperature industrial processes showed profitable outcomes compared to the sale of only electricity. Higher carbon taxes improved the economic parameters of the NHES alternatives significantly. Providing heat to high temperature industries could be very beneficial, helping to cut down the greenhouse gases emission by reducing the fossil fuel consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biochar produced from low-value forest biomass can provide substantial benefits to ecosystems and mitigate climate change-induced risks such as forest fires. Forest residues from restoration activities and timber harvest and biochar itself are bulky and thus incur high logistic costs, so are considered major bottlenecks for the commercialization of the biochar industry. The objectives of this study were to assess the environmental footprints and techno-economic feasibility of converting forest residues in Pacific Northwest United States into biochar pellets using portable systems followed by delivery of the final product to end-users for land application (dispersion). Two portable systems (Biochar Solutions Incorporated (BSI) and Air Curtain Burner (ACB)) were considered for biochar production. A cradle-to-grave lifecycle assessment (LCA) and a discounted cash flow analysis method were used to quantify the environmental impacts and minimum selling price (MSP) of biochar. The global warming (GW) impact of biochar production through BSI and ACB was estimated to be 306–444, and 750–1016 kgCO₂eq/tonne biochar applied to the field, respectively. The MSP of biochar produced through BSI and ACB was 1674–1909 and 528–1051 USD/tonne biochar applied to the field, respectively. Pelletizing of biochar reduced GW impacts during outbound logistics (~8–20%) but increased emissions during pelletizing (~1–9%). Results show the BSI system was a more viable option in terms of GW impact, whereas the ACB system can produce biochar with lower MSP. The results of the study conclude that the production of biochar pellets through the two portable systems and applied to fields can be both an environmentally beneficial and economically viable option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of lignocellulose biomass on dedicated plantations is an option that facilitates the implementation of sustainable development policy. The novelty of this type of research is that it involves the use of various types of methods—economic and legal analyses within a particular subject. This makes it possible to obtain a holistic view of the chosen case study. The purpose of this study was to determine whether setting up a Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) plantation of willow (Salix spp.) and poplar (Populus spp.) was economically profitable and if the legal regulations supported this type of production. The economic data are based on an experimental case study. The economic profitability of the plantations was assessed through an analysis of discounted cash flows, net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and profitability index (PI). The legal analysis of the relevant EU and Polish legal solutions was based on a dogmatic approach. The study demonstrated that SRC cultivation was mostly hindered by economic factors, including the low selling price of biomass as an energy resource and the high costs of harvest. Meanwhile, in the analysed period, i.e., from 2015 to 2020, there were no additional legal or economic forms of support for this type of production that was addressed directly to lignocellulose biomass producers, with the exception of the standard support under the Common Agricultural Policy framework. The results of this study provide information for decisionmakers about the opportunities and challenges experienced during the development of SRC plantations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of risk is well known in the energy sector. It is normally recognized when it comes to price and cost forecasting, annual production calculation, or evaluating project lifetime. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that the quantitative evaluation of risk is usually difficult. The discount rate is the only parameter reflecting risk in the discounted cash flow analysis. Therefore, knowledge of the discount rate along with the major components affecting its level is of fundamental significance for making investment decisions, capital budgeting, and project management. By referring to the standard coal-fired power generation projects the authors of the paper tackle the analysis of the composition of discount rate for onshore wind farm technologies in the Polish conditions. The study was carried out on the basis of a typical (hypothetical) onshore wind farm project assessed at the feasibility stage. To enable comparisons and discussions, it was assumed that the best reference point for such purposes is the real risk-adjusted discount rate, RADR, after-tax, in all equity evaluations (the 'bare bones' assumption); that is because such a rate reflects the inherent characteristics of the project risk. The study methodology involves the a priori application of the discount rate level and subsequently—in an analytical way—calculation of its individual components. The starting point for the analysis of the RADR's composition was the definition of risk, understood as the product of uncertainty and consequences. Then, the risk factors were adopted and level of uncertainty assessed. Subsequently, using the classical sensitivity analysis of IRR, the consequences (as slopes of sensitivity lines) were calculated. Consequently, risk portions in percentage forms were received. Eventually, relative risks and risk components within cost of equity were assessed. Apart from the characteristics of the discount rate at the feasibility stage, in the discussion section the study was supplemented with an analogous analysis of the project's cost of equity at the operating stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to assess the potential risks of setting up a hydrogen infrastructure in the Netherlands. An integrated risk assessment framework, capable of analyzing projects, identifying risks and comparing projects, is used to identify and analyze the main risks in the upcoming Dutch hydrogen infrastructure project. A time multiplier is added to the framework to develop parameters. The impact of the different risk categories provided by the integrated framework is calculated using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. Despite resource risks having the highest impact, scope risks are shown to be the most prominent in the hydrogen infrastructure project. To present the DCF model results, a risk assessment matrix is constructed. Compared to the conventional Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) used to present project risks, this matrix presents additional information in terms of the internal rate of return and risk specifics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy transition for a net-zero future will require deep decarbonisation that hydrogen is uniquely positioned to facilitate. This technoeconomic study considers renewable hydrogen production, transmission and storage for energy networks using the National Electricity Market (NEM) region of Eastern Australia as a case study. Plausible growth projections are developed to meet domestic demands for gas out to 2040 based on industry commitments and scalable technology deployment. Analysis using the discounted cash flow technique is performed to determine possible levelised cost figures for key processes out to 2050. Variables include geographic limitations, growth rates and capacity factors to minimise abatement costs compared to business-as-usual natural gas forecasts. The study provides an optimistic outlook considering renewable power-to-X opportunities for blending, replacement and gas-to-power to show viable pathways for the gas transition to green hydrogen. Blending is achievable with modest (3%) green premiums this decade, and substitution for natural gas combustion in the long-term is likely to represent an abatement cost of AUD 18/tCO2-e including transmission and storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of solar energy for power generation using the innovative solar chimney concept has been explored by many researchers mostly with the help of analytical models as well as CFD simulations while experimental studies for a pilot and bench scale facilities have been carried out. The efficiencies of these chimneys, however, are less than 1% (~0.07% for 50 kW pilot plant similar to Manzanares plant in Spain). In the present study, an effort has been made to make modifications in the chimney design to improve the efficiency of the chimney in terms of power generation. CFD simulations have been carried out for this modified design and the efficiency is seen to improve to 0.12% for a 50 kW chimney. Furthermore, a techno-economic feasibility analysis has been carried out for a conventional 5 MW solar power plant which can be installed on the western part of India, which receives good solar irradiation throughout the year. Two cases with and without government subsidies have been considered. It is observed that a high rate of return (~20.4%) is obtained for a selling price of electricity of Rs 5 per kWh with government subsidy, while a rate of return of ~19% is obtained for Rs 10 per kWh without government subsidy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electricity market in Brazil is basically organized under two parts: the regulated market, where energy is traded through auctions, and the free market, where market participants freely negotiate the price and quantity of electricity. Although revenues obtained in the regulated market tend to be lower than in the free market, the auctions' results show that investors still value the lesser degree of uncertainty associated with the regulated market. However, a growing interest in the free market by investors is recognized since the price of electricity tends to be higher. Therefore, this study investigates four free market price scenarios to assess the expected return for investors, using the traditional discounted cash flow approach complemented with Monte Carlo simulation to address market uncertainty. The study breaks new ground by capturing the weekly price fluctuations and including the price elasticity of demand of the free market. The results seem to indicate that the disclosure of the ceiling and floor price limits for the spot price can signal important information about the agents' price expectation in the free market and can be used for investment project evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than 65% of electricity consumed worldwide by the industrial sector is used in electric-motor-driven systems. For this reason, the efficiency of electric motors is an important factor in improving the energy efficiency of the industry. Additionally, this contributes to reducing energy consumption, production costs, as well as CO2eq emissions. The replacement of motors with efficiency class IE1 by motors of efficiency class IE3 is one possible alternative to increase the efficiency of electric motor systems. When a program to replace motors with others of greater efficiency is initiated, it is necessary to casuistically evaluate all identified opportunities. Economic viability can be evaluated using a variety of methods. Often, the methods recommended by manufacturers or consulting entities focus on simple payback time without accounting for all influencing factors. This paper contributes to the academic discussion by proposing a methodology based on the calculation of energy-saving potential, by performing a preliminary an a priori evaluation and determining the economic opportunities. It avoids evaluating all motors in the studied facility and shows its effectiveness by using the cost of energy saved to distinguish which motors to evaluate. Finally, it provides a complete economic evaluation of the final decision on the basis of discounted cash flow methods. A short-production-cycle sugarcane industry was used in the case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrating active power curtailment (APC) of renewable energy sources (RES) in power system planning reduces necessary investments in the power system infrastructure. In current target grid planning methods, APC is considered by fixed curtailment factors without considering the provided flexibility to its full extent. Time-series-based planning methods allow the integration of the time dependency of RES and loads in power system planning, leading to substantial cost savings compared to the worst-case method. In this paper, we present a multi-year planning strategy for high-voltage power system planning, considering APC as an alternative investment option to conventional planning measures. A decomposed approach is chosen to consider APC and conventional measures in a long-term planning horizon of several years. The optimal investment path is obtained with the discounted cash flow method. A case study is conducted for the SimBench high-voltage urban benchmark system. Results show that the time-series-based method allows for reducing investments by up to 84% in comparison to the worst-case method. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis shows the variation in total expenditures with changing cost assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our knowledge of discount rates plays an important role both in the discounted cash flow decision-making process and in the later phases of a project's lifetime. It is useful than both for management and cash-flow monitoring purposes at operating stages. Investors putting money into power generation projects expect an appropriate rate of return to compensate them for a minimum acceptable real return available in the market (risk-free rate of interest) and the project's specific risk. Due to its essential nature in the financial and economic evaluation of projects (it is the only parameter that reflects the risk), it is reasonable to assume that investors would also be interested in constituent components of that indicator. The discount rate is one parameter in the discounted cash flow analysis that takes into account the risk of a venture. Further, the previous research in this area has focused mainly on the dimension of this variable, and the structure of this parameter has not been dealt with any other studies. The proposed idea of this study met the expectations of the industry—it aimed to present a typical project implemented in the energy industry, a relatively simple methodology that allowed estimating the components within the cost of equity capital of the enterprise. In the power generation sector, one can find various types of discount rates—assessed for multiple technologies, at different development stages, and expressed differently. Owing to the know-how and decades-long experience, coal-fired power projects' remarks may be a good benchmark for alternative low carbon technologies. That is why, in this work, a discount rate for valuing investment in new coal-fired power projects was evaluated. This assessment was made on the "bare-bones" assumption, meaning evaluations at 100% equity, after-tax, in constant (real) currency units. The analysis of the discount rate structure was performed by applying the procedure of the classical sensitivity analysis having the accuracy of key input parameters. Finally, the risk factors within the risk-adjusted discount rate were calculated. The obtained results showed the importance of individual risk factors within the risk-adjusted discount rate used in coal energy projects, which would enable a more pragmatic approach to controlling this parameter by decision-makers and understanding the risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar energy investment represents currently a valid reason to support sustainable economic development. In fact, over the last few years, governments have applied different measures to incentivize private consumers and firms to use renewable energies. Photovoltaic (PV) projects are characterized by uncertainty due to meteorological conditions, the unpredictable behavior of government, and managerial flexibility. Since the Net Present Value (NPV) approach is not able to capture these uncertain factors, it was replaced with the Real Options Approach (ROA). The latter method manages to embed flexibility in PV investment using binomial trees. This paper valuates PV investment in all regional areas in Italy using an integrated approach between the discounted cash flows method and real option value, called Expanded Net Present Value (ENPV). We fit the probability of tax benefits into a binomial lattice model after analyzing the geographical position and weather conditions of all regional capitals of Italy. The results show that the cities with high irradiance/temperature have positive NPV and high investment values. On the other hand, while most cities have negative NPV, the inclusion of the flexibility in investment decisions gives additional value to the project, making the ENPV positive and implying an attractive investment opportunity with the possibility of delaying the project. We also propose a sensitivity analysis that shows how the real option value changes when incentive policies of the government become more attractive. This paper contributes to the existing literature in the way of considering financial, meteorological/geographical, and political factors to valuate PV investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal gasification has been promoted as a sophisticated clean energy technology alternative to coal burning these days. Aside from the usual technical difficulties, economic issues of such projects—especially valuation challenges—are important problems that practitioners usually struggle with. This is because of the major extent of managerial flexibility linked with specific characteristics of coal gasification projects, in particular, possibilities to mothball/restart manufacturing lines, or change between different outputs. The value of such flexibilities may be well assessed by real options valuations. The aim of this paper is to show that for the coal gasification technologies the real options valuation is more suitable than traditional discounted cash flow technique. This approach was applied to calculate an integrated plant that can produce either electricity or methanol. As the valuation approach the multiplicative stochastic process was used. As a consequence, binomial lattices of end-product (electricity and methanol) were developed. Then, in regard to them (reference instruments), two corresponding lattices of net cash flows (consecutive instruments) were created. In the end, two trees of switching option value were developed—one for electricity production as an initial mode, and the second for methanol production, delivering expanded net present (strategic) value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an attempt to the valuation of the operational flexibility of the energy investment project based on the example of combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT). For this purpose, the real options approach (ROA), net present value (NPV) method, and the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation have been used. Motivations to take up such a topic result from the fact that traditional valuation methods neglect flexibility embedded in CCGT assets. Operational flexibility was defined as the switching option to dynamically shut down and restart gas units. Valuation of the operational flexibility, the project's extended net present value (XNPV), was based on a discounted cash flow model. The Monte Carlo simulation, allowing for better replication of the stochastic nature of market factors and some technical parameters, was introduced to the valuation model. The obtained results indicate that the value of the options significantly influences the NPV of the analyzed technology and its risk profile. The NPV was calculated at −169.1 million USD, while the XNPV amounted to 102.5 million USD. This difference, compared to the NPV distribution range at a significance level of 0.05, was more than 8.1% (almost 10.4% for α = 0.1). The results achieved help to explain the significance of the operational flexibility in the modeling profitability of CCGT technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food waste (FW) is one of the most critical problems in the world. Most FW will be sent to landfills, generally accompanying some significant disadvantages to the surrounding environment. Fermentation is considered as another disposal method to deal with FW. In this study, using a techno-economic analysis (TEA) method, an evaluation of the economic impact of three different scenarios of FW fermentation is carried out. A SuperPro Designer V9.0 simulation was used to model a commercial scale processing plant for each scenario, namely, a FW fermentation process producing hydrolysis enzymes and featuring a 2-step distillation system, a FW fermentation process without enzymes, using a 2-step distillation system, and a FW fermentation process without enzymes, using a 1-step distillation system. Discounted cash flow analysis is used to estimate the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP), where the lowest MESP result of $2.41/gal ($0.64/L) of ethanol is found for the second aforementioned scenario, showing that, even without enzymes in FW fermentation, the product cost can be competitive when compared to the other scenarios considered in this study. This project thus reflects a significant positive economic impact while minimizing the environmental footprint of a commercial production facility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]