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In recent years, due to the rise in energy prices and the impact of COVID-19, energy shortages have led to unsafe power supply environments. High emissions industries which account for more than 58% of the carbon emissions of Guangdong Province have played an important role in achieving the carbon peak goal, alleviating social energy shortage and promoting economic growth. Controlling high emissions industries will help to adjust the industrial structure and increase renewable energy investment. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the policies of energy security and the investments of high emission industries. This paper builds the ICEEH-GD (comprehensive assessment model of climate, economy, environment and health of Guangdong Province) model, designs the Energy Security scenario (ES), the Restrict High Carbon Emission Sector scenario (RHS) and the Comprehensive Policy scenario (CP), and studies the impact of limiting high emissions industries and renewable energy policies on the transformation of investment structure, macro-economy and society. The results show that under the Energy Security scenario (ES), carbon emissions will peak in 2029, with a peak of 681 million tons. Under the condition of ensuring energy security, the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation will remain unchanged from 2025 to 2035. Under the Restrict High Carbon Emission Sector scenario (RHS), the GDP will increase by 8 billion yuan compared with the ES scenario by 2035. At the same time, it can promote the whole society to increase 10,500 employment opportunities, and more investment will flow to the low emissions industries. In the Comprehensive Policy scenario (CP), although the GDP loss will reach 33 billion yuan by 2035 compared with the Energy Security scenario (ES), the transportation and service industries will participate in carbon trading by optimizing the distribution of carbon restrictions in the whole society, which will reduce the carbon cost of the whole society by more than 48%, and promote the employment growth of 104,000 people through industrial structure optimization. Therefore, the power sector should increase investment in renewable energy to ensure energy security, limit the new production capacity of high emissions industries such as cement, steel and ceramics, and increase the green transition and efficiency improvement of existing high emissions industries.

Many challenges are faced in the process of urban sustainable development, including the continuous growth in energy demand and rapid increase in CO2 and air pollutant emissions. This study focuses on the costs of measures to address these issues and establishes a multi-objective comprehensive assessment model for energy saving, CO2, and pollutant emission (MCEE). Taking Guangzhou as an example, the sustainable development measures are divided into three categories, energy-saving, demand-optimization, and environmental-protection. Five scenarios are set to quantitatively evaluate the costs when these measures are implemented alone or coordinately for the period 2015–2035. Conclusions are as follows: (1) Measures of energy-saving and demand-optimization have the best synergistic effect on energy saving and emission reduction. The synergistic benefits include an 80% and 84% increase in energy savings and CO2 reductions, respectively, and more than 50% increase in pollutant reductions. (2) Measures of demand-optimization and energy-saving have the best synergistic effect on cost saving, which reduces the unit technical improvement costs of energy saving and CO2 reduction by 49.5% and 54.9%, respectively, and the unit end-of-pipe costs of four pollutants by 59.15%, 54.43%, 61.15%, and 51.96, respectively. (3) Environmental-protection measures have remarkable synergistic effects in reducing the cost of health loss and labor loss. At the price of a 5% increase in technical improvement cost and 9% in end-of-pipe treatment cost, health loss, labor loss, and total social cost will be reduced by 18%, 19%, and 3%, respectively. The above conclusions provide support for cities of the same type to coordinate various measures, reduce resistance and barriers to their implementation, compensate for the market deficiency of high costs of some measures, and achieve the goal of sustainable development.