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The challenge of multi-use forestry is to fulfil a range of economic, ecologic and social goals in a sustainable way, accounting for synergies and trade-offs among the ecosystem services provided. Climate changes add to the complexity via effects on forest ecosystem processes, such as primary production and respiration, and also by adding a new goal on the agenda: the role of forests in climate mitigation. In recent years, the generation of climate model projections, representing a range of future scenarios, has enabled the development of strategic decisions in relation to risk management, and created a demand for cross-sectorial adaptation and mitigation processes. In this ecosystem model study we address these issues from the perspective of Swedish forest owners, by focusing on climate impacts and forest management effects on the potential harvest level, net income, predisposition to storm damage, biodiversity and carbon storage. The objective was to evaluate alternative management strategies, applicable to northern boreal, southern boreal and nemoral conditions. A general finding is that targeted combinations of forest stand management strategies can lead to a higher degree of goal fulfilment at the landscape level than current forest management practice.

The uncertain effects of climatic change and changing demands for ecosystem services on the distribution of forests and their levels of service provision require assessments of future land-use change, ecosystem service provision, and how ecosystem service demands may be met. We present CRAFTY-Sweden, an agent-based, land-use model that incorporates land owner behaviour and decision-making in modelling future ecosystem service provision in the Swedish forestry sector. Future changes were simulated under scenarios of socio-economic and climatic change between 2010 and 2100. The simulations indicate that the influence of climatic change (on land productivities) may be less important thanthat of socio-economic change or behavioural differences. Simulations further demonstrate that the variability in land owner and societal behaviour has a substantial role in determining the direction and impact of land-use change. The results indicate a sizeable increase in timber harvesting in coming decades, which together with a substantial decoupling between supply and demand for forest ecosystem services highlights the challenge of continuously meeting demands for ecosystem services over long periods of time. There is a clear need for modelapplications of this kind to better understand the variation in ecosystem service provision in the forestry sector, and other associated land-use changes.