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Although natural habitats are being lost globally, the extent and fate of natural habitats on private lands in the United States have not been quantified at the resolution relevant for conservation planning. Here we provide information on the locations and risk of loss of areas of natural vegetation cover (NVC) on private lands across the northwestern United States to motivate discussion on needs and opportunities to slow their loss. Specific questions were as follows: (1) Where are the remaining areas of NVC on private lands? (2) Which regions and communities have had the highest loss rates of NVC? and (3) In which socioecological settings is NVC at greatest risk of loss? NVC location and change were mapped using two land cover classifications during 2001–2011, the most recent period with available data. Associations between NVC loss and market proximity, demographic, infrastructure, natural amenity, and climate factors were used to model probability of NVC loss in 2011. We found that NVC covered 64% of the study area in 2011. During 2001–2011, 2.5% of the area of NVC in 2001 was converted to development and croplands. Rates of loss were as high as 12% in some regions (e.g., western Washington). Housing development accounted for the majority of this NVC loss, increasing by 8% while croplands increased by 5%. Conversion of NVC for development and crops during 2001–2011 per capita varied 20–40 fold among “city spheres” (urban areas >10,000 people and 40‐min commuting distance). NVC loss was statistically associated with urban fringe development, forest edge vegetation, proximity to highways, public land, and waterbodies and was associated with New West demographic city spheres. Of the NVC on private lands in 2011, 11% was projected to have >20% probability of future loss over the next decade. We conclude that portions of the northwestern United States, one of the last stronghold for extensive natural habitats in the contiguous United States, are rapidly losing NVC to development, particularly in the New West communities that typically have the highest motivation and capacity to conserve them.

Competitive interactions between species are fundamental to understanding species assemblages, community dynamics, and ecological processes. Anthropogenic landscape change, particularly resulting from urbanization, can alter interspecific interactions; however, different forms of urbanization are predicted to have contrasting effects on competitive interactions. We developed contact networks between bobcats and pumas to evaluate (1) the potential for interspecific interactions between wild felids and (2) how space-use metrics might change along the urban gradient, including low-density exurban development, wildland–urban interface, and wildland habitat, at both the population and individual level. We used an extensive telemetry data set for bobcats and pumas across multiple study areas to evaluate four space-use metrics: space-use overlap (used to define potential interactions among animals) and three additional contact network metrics, including degree (the number of potentially interacting animals), in-strength (sum of space-use overlap for animals), and equivalent social connectivity (ESC; considering both space-use extent and the amount of space-use overlap). Space-use extent was an important predictor of potential social interactions as measured by space-use metrics. Bobcats appeared to have a greater opportunity to interact with female pumas based on space-use overlap, degree, and in-strength, which demonstrates that relative scale of space-use extent among animals could be important for understanding interactions; ESC, however, was greater between bobcats and male pumas, likely due to the larger space-use extent by male compared to female pumas and the positive relationship between space-use extent and ESC. In addition, pumas and male bobcats exhibited a greater opportunity to interact, based on space-use overlap, degree, and in-strength, and demonstrated higher ESC compared to female bobcats. Counter to our predictions, felids associated with urbanized grids or with greater amounts of urbanization in their extent of space use did not appear to exhibit greater values of space-use metrics compared to animals with less exposure to urbanization; these results appear consistent with previous research evaluating population characteristics of felids across broad scales in our study areas. Greater ESC for male pumas and male bobcats suggests that males could be particularly important for facilitating connectivity of some ecological processes, such as the transmission of disease, through interspecific contact networks.

The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas ...