Search

This article focuses on United States Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, whose term ends in January 2006. At this year's meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, a collection of central bankers and economists, distinguished even by the elevated standards of Jackson Hole, Wyoming paid tribute to Alan Greenspan's 18 years as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Greenspan gave warning that an unusually long period of economic stability might have encouraged investors to accept lower risk premiums and thus inflated the prices of assets, such as shares and homes. Moreover, Mr Greenspan, who until recently gave short shrift to the idea of a housing bubble in America, said that the property boom was an "imbalance" and that prices of homes could fall. He argued that in future the Fed will need to pay more attention to asset prices. Despite Mr Greenspan's caution, the gathering preferred to focus on his past performance. His chief examiners were Alan Blinder (a former vice-chairman of the Fed) and Ricardo Reis, both of Princeton University, whose paper concluded that "he has a legitimate claim to being the greatest central banker who ever lived". According to Messrs Blinder and Reis, the main ingredients of Mr Greenspan's tenure have been intellectual flexibility, scepticism of economic models and forecasts and a preference for discretion over formal policy rules such as inflation targeting. Mr Greenspan's Fed sees monetary policy as risk management, looking not only at the most likely path for the economy but at all the possible paths it might follow. In any case, Mr Greenspan's words of caution at Jackson Hole were surely an attempt to lean against the current housing boom. Perhaps he is showing more intellectual flexibility on how to respond to asset prices than Messrs Blinder and Reis give him credit for.

The article focuses on upward economic mobility in Europe, Nordic countries, and the United States. Two new research papers confirm that, if one compares the incomes of children with those of their parents, or considers how long people in one income group stay there, Nordic countries emerge as far more mobile than America. In the Nordic countries, tax and welfare systems deliberately try to help the children of the poor to do better than their parents.