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This paper revisits the UK productivity puzzle using new data on outputs and inputs and clarifying the role of output mismeasurement, input growth and industry effects. Our data indicate an implied labour productivity gap of 13 percentage points in 2011 relative to the productivity level on pre‐recession trends. We find that: (a) the labour productivity puzzle is a TFP puzzle, since it is not explained by the contributions of labour or capital services; (b) the reallocation of labour between industries deepens rather than explains the puzzle (i.e. there has been a reallocation of hours away from low‐productivity industries and toward high productivity industries); (c) capitalization of R&D does not explain the productivity puzzle; (d) assuming increased scrapping rates since the recession, a 25% (50%) increase in depreciation rates post‐2009 can potentially explain 15% (31%) of the productivity puzzle; (e) industry data show that 35% of the TFP puzzle can be explained by weak TFP growth in the oil & gas and finance sectors; and (f) cyclical effects via factor utilization could potentially explain 17% of the productivity puzzle. Continued weakness in finance would suggest a future lowering of TFP growth to around 0.8% p.a. from a baseline of 0.9% p.a. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the effectiveness of debt relief to stimulate economic growth in the most heavily indebted poor countries. We develop a neoclassical framework with a conflict of interest between the altruistic donor and the recipient government, and model conditionality as an imperfectly enforceable dynamic contract. In contrast to the recent practice of fully cancelling debt, optimal incentive‐compatible conditionality is accompanied by a concessionality level that implies a combination of subsidized loans and outright grants. The optimal concessionality level depends on the recipient's access to international financial markets and on the strength of the conflict of interest. Incentive‐compatible transfers with optimal concessionality levels generate substantial welfare gains. If the donor does not implement the optimal concessionality level and provides subsidized loans only, then the effectiveness of transfers decreases in the long run with severe welfare implications. In contrast, transfers are less effective in the short run if the donor offers outright grants only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers an overlapping generations model of economic growth populated by two types of individuals. Competitive types compare future consumption (i.e. wealth) with the mean. Self-sufficient types derive utility simply from their own consumption and do not compare themselves with others. I derive a condition under which the utility (happiness) of both types increases when the economy is populated by a larger share of competitive types. I show that a sufficiently high share of competitive types in a society can be inevitable for long-run economic growth to exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the relationship between geographic patterns of industry and economic growth without scale effects. Facing transport costs and imperfect knowledge diffusion, firms locate production, process innovation and product development in their lowest cost regions, leading to the partial concentration of production and full agglomeration of innovation in the region with the largest market. An increase in industry concentration raises knowledge spillovers from production to innovation, causing a fall (rise) in market entry, if labour productivity improves more for process innovation (product development). The rate of economic growth rises or falls, depending on how industry concentration affects market entry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies how airports affect economic growth in US metropolitan areas. The main finding is that airport size has a positive effect on local employment, with an elasticity of 0.04. The effect appears to be mostly due to a positive effect on services employment and to be concentrated in parts of the metropolitan area nearer the airport. To further understand how an airport affects the local economy, the effects on several other variables are estimated. Airport size is found to have positive effects on the number of firms, the population size, the rate of employment, and GDP in the local area. The magnitudes of the effects on population and employment suggest that airport expansion creates jobs for both existing residents and migrants to the area. The estimation uses a novel technique to identify the effects of airport infrastructure. It applies instruments for changes in airport size that are calculated from overall changes in air traffic in a set of categories: the airlines, the types of aircraft, or the distances flown. The technique could be adapted to study the effects of other types of infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence suggests that poorer countries have larger amounts of predation. We formulate a neoclassical growth model in which agents devote time to either produce or predate. When the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital is lower than one, the labour share rises with capital, reducing the incentive to predate and increasing the incentive to produce throughout the transition. Consequently, a feedback process between capital accumulation and predation arises, which amplifies income differences generated by differences in productivity. This paper helps to explain why differences between countries have remained stable and the key role that institutions play in development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence is scarce on whether firms set profit‐maximizing prices, as these typically depend delicately on details of difficult‐to‐observe strategic interactions. To avoid this problem, this paper provides a detailed case study of the Swedish Tobacco Monopoly's pricing with data from 1916 to 1959. Prices are found to be below those that maximize the expected net present value of profits. However, the difference between actual and optimal price diminishes over time, and towards the end of the period the two are almost indistinguishable. The net present value of actual profits is approximately 60% of what could have been obtained. Overall, the pricing patterns appear more consistent with the firm learning about demand conditions than being the result of maximization of something other than profits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economics literature typically uses counts of casualties as a measure of conflict intensity despite the fact that the units of observation vary considerably in population size. When analysing the impact of conflict on economic growth, the use of counts relies on the assumption that a given number of casualties affects large and small populations in the same way. Using within- and between-country evidence, this paper demonstrates that this standard assumption can be rejected. A per capita model of conflict intensity that captures local effects of violence provides a more consistent empirical framework for both between-country and within-country studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A random walk with drift is a good univariate representation of US GDP. This paper shows, however, that US economic downturns have been associated with predictable short-term recoveries and with changes in long-term GDP forecasts that are substantially smaller than the initial drop. To detect these predictable changes, it is important to use a multivariate time series model. We discuss reasons why univariate representations can miss key characteristics of the underlying variable such as predictability, especially during recessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we evaluate empirically the impact of fiscal policy on two key determinants of long-term growth, i.e., private investment and productivity growth. We mostly focus on a panel of 20 OECD economies from 1970 to 2009, although we also present some estimates based on data for 80 developing economies. Our findings suggest that high public debt adversely affects both aggregate investment spending and productivity growth, through distortions related to the size of the public sector. We also find weak evidence of some non-linear effects on productivity, with government debt becoming more detrimental in advanced economies when above 85-90% of GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses an instrumental variables approach to estimate the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Instrumental variables estimates show that economic growth has a significant negative contemporaneous effect on trade openness, while trade openness has a significant positive effect on economic growth. A 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of trade over GDP is associated with a short-run increase in growth of approximately 0.5% in a given year; the cumulative long-run effect on the level of GDP per capita is larger, reaching about 2%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests that the weak empirical effect of human capital on growth in existing cross-country studies is partly the result of an inappropriate specification that does not account for the different channels through which human capital affects growth. A systematic replication of earlier results from the literature shows that both initial levels and changes in human capital have positive growth effects, while in isolation each channel often appears insignificant. The results suggest that the effect of human capital is likely to be underestimated in empirical specifications that do not account for both channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that corruption in developing countries has deep historical roots that go all the way back to their colonial experience. We substantiate our thesis with empirical evidence where the degree of European settlement during colonial times is a powerful explanatory factor of present-day corruption. Interestingly, our mechanism is different from the prevailing view in the literature on institutions and growth, where European settlement has only positive effects. We argue that European settlement leads to higher levels of corruption for all countries where Europeans remained a minority in the population, i.e. for all developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use two variants of Markov switching models to assess changes in output synchronization since the creation of the euro. Out of eight eurozone countries investigated, only one—the Netherlands—has synchronization increased since euro adoption, supporting the ‘endogenous optimal currency area’ argument of Frankel and Rose. However, in three other cases, business cycle synchronization actually fell since the euro's creation. Thus the ‘endogeneity’ of the optimal currency area criteria can go both ways—adopting a common currency may increase synchronization for nations ready for a common currency, but it can lower synchronization for nations that are far from synchronized before monetary unification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bulk of the world's extreme poor work in subsistence agriculture. Diversification out of this activity is often seen as the sine qua non of economic development. We evaluate whether the roll‐out of a mainstay development intervention—microfinance—into poor, agricultural and largely unbanked populations in rural Uganda helps borrowers to diversify into non‐agricultural labour activities. The new microfinance product is targeted to women, and differs from existing sources of formal and informal credit in that it allows them to borrow larger amounts but has inflexible repayment dates and the use of funds is monitored. We find that the arrival of microfinance enables women to diversify out of agriculture and into service‐based activities such as small‐scale trading. This low‐level structural change, however, is not transformative in that it does not lead—at least after two years—to significant uplifts in earnings, consumption, savings, investment and overall wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We identify two counteracting effects of credit access on productivity growth: on the one hand, better access to credit makes it easier for entrepreneurs to innovate; on the other hand, better credit access allows less efficient incumbent firms to remain longer on the market, thereby discouraging entry of new and potentially more efficient innovators. We first develop a simple model of firm dynamics and innovation‐based growth with credit constraints, where the above two counteracting effects generate an inverted‐U relationship between credit access and productivity growth. Then we test our theory on a comprehensive French manufacturing firm‐level dataset. We first show evidence of an inverted‐U relationship between credit constraints and productivity growth when we aggregate our data at the sectoral level. We then move to firm‐level analysis, and show that incumbent firms with easier access to credit experience higher productivity growth, but that they also experience lower exit rates, particularly the least productive firms among them. To support these findings, we exploit the 2012 Eurosystem's Additional Credit Claims programme as a quasi‐experiment that generated an exogenous extra supply of credits for a subset of incumbent firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic consequences of limits on political donations depend on the degree of political competition. Donors, who are ideologically aligned with candidates, decide how much to contribute to their own candidate. They may benefit from rent‐seeking by their own candidate but dislike rent‐seeking by the opposition. Increased rent‐seeking by politicians thus generates campaign contributions for themselves but also mobilizes donations to the opposing candidate, potentially to a greater extent. This latter effect acts as a deterrent to rent‐seeking when contributions finance electoral campaigns and positively affect election chances. When political competition is low, incumbent donors outnumber opposition donors, and limits reduce rent‐seeking. When political competition is high, donors are equalized and laissez‐faire reduces rent‐seeking. Consistent with these hypotheses, data from the USA suggest that limits are associated with better policies and stronger growth performance at low levels of political competition, while laissez‐faire is preferred when political competition is high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the second half of the 20th century, most industrialized countries experienced declining fertility, rising life expectancy and a slowdown of population growth. Standard models of R&D-based growth predict that a decline in population growth reduces economic growth. We argue that this implication hinges on the assumption of infinitely lived individuals. The semi-endogenous growth model with overlapping generations that we propose implies a negative relationship between population growth and economic growth during a substantial part of the transitional dynamics if the decline in population growth is accompanied by an increase in life expectancy as observed in industrialized countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document the evolution of gender inequality in labour market outcomes-earnings, labour supply and wage rates-over the path of economic development, and present evidence on the potential reasons for this evolution. To this end, we have created a micro database that compiles 248 surveys from 53 countries between 1967 and 2014, covering a wide range of per capita income levels. There is large convergence in the earnings of men and women over the path of development, driven by female labour force participation and wage rates. We argue that the single most important factor behind this convergence is demographic transition: the effects of children on gender gaps ('child penalties') are large at both low and high levels of development, but fertility declines drastically over the growth process and thus reduces the aggregate implications of children. We also document gender convergence in educational attainment and consider its effects on earnings inequality, arguing that these are significant but less dramatic than the effects of fertility. Finally, we document striking changes in the values or norms surrounding the role of women with children, implying that such changes could serve as a reinforcing mechanism for gender convergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop an augmented Olley-Pakes (OP) decomposition that allows us to examine how entering and exiting firms contribute to the popular OP covariance measure of allocative efficiency. Applying the decomposition to a comprehensive micro-level data, we find that a large part of the OP covariance component can be attributed to entrants and exiting firms. We also build a model of firm dynamics that is consistent with our main empirical results. In the model economy, the standard OP covariance component tends to increase with certain type of distortions because of endogenous changes in firm entry and exit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have reported positive associations between democracy and economic growth. They have also explored how associations could differ across regions or income levels. However, might the effects of democracy on growth also depend on factors such as institutions promoting law and order? Using a panel specification, we employ a democracy-law and order interactive term to examine if the effects of democracy on economic growth depend on these other institutions. We find that positive effects of democracy diminish and might even turn negative in countries where other institutions such as those supporting law and order are strong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]