POPULATION & economics, ECONOMIC conditions in Europe, INCOME, SOCIAL indicators, ECONOMIC development
Abstract
A 'revisionist' view of the European fertility transition has challenged the previously accepted causal roles of economic forces. Our contribution has been to construct and test an econometric model in which economic growth causes fertility change. We find that rising per capita incomes raised birth rates, up to estimated turning points, and thereafter exerted negative effects. This finding is partly consistent with the revisionist view: economic growth apparently did not cause the emergence of historical fertility declines, which antedated the turning points. However, in the later phases of the transition, economic growth accelerated the fertility down-trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]