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During 1986 the Economic Planning Advisory Council published a series of six papers examining the role of economic policy in fostering long-term growth. This article provides a review and critical assessment of the EPAC analysis. The fundamental issue at stake is whether long-term growth is a supply-driven or a demand-driven process. In particular, the crucial issue neglected by EPAC is the relationship between aggregate demand, the inducement to invest and the growth of productive capacity. The conclusion is that in order to promote sustained growth, policy must provide the structural and macroeconomic requirements for a sustainable growth of aggregate demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents several abstracts of papers delivered on economic in Melbourne, Australia. 'The Economics of an Offshore Island,' by G.G. Firth; 'Some Aspects of Private Pension Funds and the Capital Market,' by P.J. Rose; 'Long-Run Overseas Trade Prospects for Farm Products,' by R.H. Snape.

Presents several abstracts on economics. 'Organization and Innovation,' by F.J. Willet; 'Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Countries,' by D.H. Whitehead; 'Some Development Problems in Asian Countries,' by A.M. Kerr.

This paper surveys the writings of Peter Lloyd, one of Australia's best-known economists, who has been elected Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia. It notes the importance of his work, mostly done jointly with Herbert Grubel, on intra-industry trade, and his extensive contributions to trade theory. In addition there have been many papers on the global trading system and regionalism, and on the Australian and New Zealand economies. It describes his approach to economics and his many professional activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on developments which are of interest to economists. The Program Committee for the 2005 Australian Conference of Economists has bestowed the Economic Society's prize of Best Paper to Ralph Bayer and Susana Iranzo. The A. R. Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics for 2005 has been given to Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy and Leo Krippner. The Economic Society of Australia is calling on economists to participate in the 35th Australian Conference of Economists which will be held on September 25-27, 2006 at the Curtin University of Technology.

Inflation leads individuals to work harder to spend and not carry their money holdings. Two alternative margins have been used to model this effect: the extensive margin (the frequency of shopping per period) and the intensive margin (the average shopping time per trip). This paper investigates how inflation affects these two margins. It deviates from the previous literature by allowing individuals to vary both margins simultaneously. The analysis reveals that the impact of inflation on these two margins is determined by the interaction between the opportunity cost of carrying money and direct search costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers news briefs related to some of announcements made by the Economic Society of Australia. The society has announced that Ross Garnaut had been elected to receive the Distinguished Fellow award for the year 2009. The society has announced that the Annual Conference of Economists (ACE10) will be held from 27-29 September, 2010. The article also reports on the application process for the ninth A R Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics.

Presents information on articles published in the June 2003 issue of the journal 'Economic Records.' Selection of papers from the 31st National Conference of Economists held in Adelaide from September 30 to October 4, 2002; Help by Australian economists for publishing this issue.

The article reports several issues and events related to economics in Australia. The South Australian Branch of the Economic Society of Australia invites all economists to attend the 38th Australian Conference of Economists (ACE) 2009 held in Adelaide, South Australia on September 28-30, 2009. The History of Economic Thought Society of Australia (HETSA) announces that the organization will already accepting applications for the 2009 (HETSA) Prizes award. The Economic Society of Australia has two publications entitled "The Economic Record and Economic Papers" and "Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy."

This paper briefly outlines the many achievements of Professor Maureen Brunt, who was elected Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia in 2006. It describes both her academic career, and her major contributions to competition law in Australia and New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article announces various economic-related information in Australia. Professor Alan Woodland has been elected to receive the award as the Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia for 2008. The 38th Australian Conference of Economists will be held at the University of Adelaide in South Australia on September 28-30, 2009. The Best Paper Prize has been awarded to Nikola Dvornak and Marion Kohler for their paper entitled "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," Volume 83.

Presents developments in the periodical "The Economic Record." Resignation of Peter Kenyon as survey editor; Recipients of the Best paper in "The Economic Record" in 2003; 34th Australian Conference of Economists to be held at the University of Melbourne, Victoria from 26-28 September 2004.

Fertility and per capita income are now positively associated across most high income OECD countries. Low fertility and a gender wage gap persist in Japan. This paper presents a model where endogenous increases in the price of child-care and gender equity in the allocation of capital play important roles in the effect of per capita income growth and rising female relative wages on fertility. Results indicate that a positive relationship between fertility and per capita income is not robust: overall fertility rises with female relative wages if child-care productivity is sufficiently high; female relative wages may not rise with per capita income if men work with increasing capital relative to women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This edited volume contains 12 very fine papers examining how trade affects growth, productivity and employment. Ing, Yu and Zhang develop a procedure extending the work of Feenstra and Romalis to estimate micro-level firm-product-destination-year export quality. They combine firm-level production data with transaction-level export data in both Indonesia and China to estimate micro-level export quality. [Extracted from the article]

This paper argues that detailed studies of particular economies, such as Bob Gregory's work on Australia, are relevant to all of economics. The paper builds on the concept of a model species from biology to develop the notion of a model economy – one whose experiences illuminate fundamental economic issues; examines the criterion for an economy to serve as a model economy; and describes three areas – labour relations and the awards system of wage-setting, marketising public services and growth through immigration and natural resources – where Australian experience provides insights into economic behaviour and the operation of markets broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to an exploration of the potential causes (as distinct from existence) of social and spatial polarisation. It focuses on the changing provision of low-rent housing in a spatial context, and hence on the role that the private rental market plays in the residential choices available to lower income households. The paper applies multinomial logit estimation to panel data to determine the factors that affect the probability that an existing rental dwelling remains at the same real rent value over the decade from 1991 to 2001, filters down or up or exits from the private rental market. It tests the hypothesis that the outcome is affected by neighbourhood characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective marginal tax rates (EMTRs) provide a way of measuring the balance between targeting of welfare payments and the financial incentive to work. High EMTRs result from income tests for welfare payments overlapping with each other and/or the income tax system. Individuals who face high EMTRs over broad ranges of income have little financial incentive to increase their earned income. This paper examines the distribution of EMTRs across the Australian labour force in 2002. It also looks at how the number of people facing high EMTRs has changed since the introduction of the new tax system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As human traits and preferences were shaped by natural selection, there is substantial potential for the use of evolutionary biology in economic analysis. In this paper, we review the extent to which evolutionary theory has been incorporated into economic research. We examine work in four areas: the evolution of preferences, the molecular genetic basis of economic traits, the interaction of evolutionary and economic dynamics, and the genetic foundations of economic development. These fields comprise a thriving body of research, but have significant scope for further investigation. In particular, the growing accessibility of low-cost molecular data will create more opportunities for research on the relationship between molecular genetic information and economic traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers news briefs related to activities of the Economic Society of Australia. It notes the election of Office Bearers to the Central Council of the Economic Society of Australia held in 2010. It offers information on the 40th Australian Conference of Economists to be held on July 11-13, 2011 at the Australian National University. It also mentions the updated datasets and code availability policy of the periodical "Economic Record."

At the 48 SP th sp Australian Conference of Economists in Melbourne, President Matthew Butlin was pleased to announce that Professor B b Kym Anderson AC is the Economic Society of Australia Distinguished Fellow for 2019. Kym Anderson has worked mostly within the general area of agricultural economics, with a particular emphasis on distortions to agricultural incentives: their measurement, their effects on world trade flows and on incomes and inequality, and their causes in political economy. Matt has been a huge supporter of initiatives such as the establishment of the Women in Economics network and the National Economics Panel - both of which have promoted the profile of the Society and significantly enhanced the professional environment for economists working in Australia. It was during an extended trip around Australia with her husband Ross that Mardi was offered a place as a Ph.D. student in the Research School of Social Sciences at the Australian National University to work with one of Australia's most formidable economists, Adrian Pagan. [Extracted from the article]

The introduction for the September 2006 issue of "The Economic Record" is presented.

The article focuses on Distinguished Fellow Award 2017 given to the people in various categories, the preview of the 47th Australian Conference of Economists to be held on July 19-21 in 2018, and a website review on the Australian Macro Database.

This paper investigates the key drivers of fixed firm investment of listed non-financial companies in Australia over the period from 1987 to 2009. A Tobin's q model of investment is augmented to account for the effect of economic uncertainty on the investment decision. The effects of Tobin's q, sales and cash flows on firm investment rate are also analysed and discussed. Consistent with existing literature, this research finds clear evidence of negative effects of both macroeconomic and firm idiosyncratic uncertainty on Australian firm investment. However, evidence also shows that firm-specific uncertainty is more important in explaining firm investment than macroeconomic uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This section offers news briefs concerning the field of economics in Australia as of January 2013. The 42nd Australian Conference of Economists will be held in Perth, Western Australia. The History of Economic Thought Society of Australia (HETSA) has called for submissions for its 2013 scholarship prizes. The Victorian branch of the Economic Society of Australia has produced a 2013 calendar.

The Economic Record, one of the world's oldest economic journals, has a distinguished history. The flagship journal of the Economic Society of Australia and New Zealand was launched in 1925 and is approaching its 100th birthday. We undertake a forensic examination of the journal over the last 50 years, exploring issues like its content, most-cited articles and most frequent contributors. This article discusses the journal's internationalisation but also identifies how Australia's top economists have, for the most part, faithfully persisted with it. The changing nature of academic publishing is explored through the patterns of collaboration, citations and dry holes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Who records the largest drops in life satisfaction when they move into unemployment? Do men experience a larger drop in life satisfaction? Do Australians and Americans record a larger drop than Europeans? Using panel data, this paper finds that the unemployed in Australia report lower life satisfaction than observationally equivalent employed people (holding current income constant). Being unemployed is estimated to be equivalent to the loss of $A42 100 annual income for men and even more for women. It is found that unemployment is less painful for men in Australia than for men in Germany and the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates a simultaneous-equation model of wages and prices for Australia, underpinned by a competing claims framework of imperfect competition. Two separate co-integrating relationships for wages and prices are identified by imposing the economic hypotheses implied by the theory. The steady-state relationships for wages and prices are then embedded in a parsimonious, dynamic wage-price model. The final model is both simple and parsimonious and able to describe the process of wage and price inflation in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the magnitude and duration of the goods and services tax (GST) effect on the quarterly growth rate of the 11 groups of the consumer price index (CPI) in Australia using the Box and Tiao intervention analysis. It was found that prices did not increase significantly before or after the introduction of GST, beyond what could have been expected on the basis of the discernible systematic pattern of fluctuation in the data. Furthermore, the varying one-off effect of GST on prices was significant in seven out of 11 CPI groups; the effect was found insignificant for the other four CPI groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an experiment to investigate the impact of information externalities in a search model. The model implies that information spillovers create an initial delay in action by agents, followed by a flurry of activity once some public information is revealed. Conversely, this experiment reveals a shorter delay prior to the first subject moving than the model suggests. Furthermore, the subsequent increase in activity is greater than predicted. However, as the sessions progress, the subjects exhibit a degree of learning in each treatment. They prolong their search for higher payouts and, hence, their behaviour approaches that of the model's optimal strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the applicability of the Nelson-Phelps approach to the modelling of human capital in economic growth for the sample of OECD countries. A case is made for confining the approach to the technology diffusion component and for combining it with the Lucas approach. For such a hybrid model, both the favoured interpretation of the Nelson-Phelps approach, as well as the Lucas approach, are supported by the evidence. The sensitivity of the findings is assessed with regard to the use of alternative human capital data sets, including quality (adjusted) measures, and with regard to data outliers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigates the possibility that the Philips curve is indeed a curve. Representation of the convex short-run Philips curve; Estimation of the Philips curve in a linear framework; Implication of convexity in the Philips curve; Implications for Australia.

This paper estimates the impact of fertility on mothers' labour supply in Australia, using exogenous variation in family size generated by twin births and the gender mix of siblings. Results show that having more than one child decreases mothers' labour market participation by 12 percentage points and hours worked by around four hours per week. Having more than two children reduces labour market participation by 12 percentage points and hours worked by three hours a week. Compared with other countries, the effects for Australia are large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of oil shocks on return and volatility in the sectors of Australian stock market and finds significant effects for most sectors. For the overall market index, an increase in oil price return significantly reduces return, and an increase in oil price return volatility significantly reduces volatility. An advantage of looking at sector returns rather than a general index of stock returns is that sectors may well differ markedly in how they respond to oil price shocks. The energy and material sectors (as expected) and the financial sector (surprisingly) are out of step (in different ways) with results for the other sectors and for the overall index. A rise in oil price increases returns in the energy and material sectors and an increase in oil price return volatility increases stock return volatility in the financial sector. Explanation for the negative (positive) association between oil return (oil return volatility) and returns (volatility of returns) in the financial sector must be based on the association via lending to and/or holdings of corporate bonds issued by firms with significant exposure to oil price fluctuations and their speculative positions in oil-related instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents an introduction to the August 2005 Special Issue of the journal "Economic Record."

Australia had one of the highest per capita incomes in the world in the late nineteenth century, although this exceptional position subsequently eroded over time. This paper compares national income and sectoral labour productivity in Australia and the UK between 1861 and 1948 to uncover the underlying sources of Australia's high income and the reasons for its subsequent relative decline. We find that the country's higher per capita income was due primarily to higher labour productivity, because labour force participation, although higher in Australia than in the USA, was lower than in the UK. Australia had a substantial labour productivity lead in agriculture throughout the period, due to the importance of high value-added, non-arable farming, and a smaller lead in industry before World War I. The early productivity lead in industry was largely based on the importance of mining, and disappeared as manufacturing became more important. There was little productivity difference in services. These results reaffirm the importance of Australia's successful exploitation of its natural resource endowments in explaining the country's high initial income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As economists, we tend to accept the principle that more choice cannot make us worse off. However, recent evidence from laboratory and field experiments suggests that more choice can inhibit decision-making and reduce search in many situations, potentially reducing welfare. This paper provides a formal theoretical foundation for these observations by embedding the regret theory of Loomes and Sugden (1982) in three search models. Beyond a threshold number of options, we find that ‘less is more’: agents who experience regret have lower utility as the number of options is increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analysed the economic payoffs from marine reserves using a stochastic optimal control model, with a jump-diffusion process. The results show that even if the reserve and harvested populations face the same negative shocks, harvesting is optimal, the population is persistent and there is no uncertainty over current stock size, a reserve can increase resource rents. Using fishery data we demonstrate that the payoffs from a reserve, and also optimum reserve size, increase the larger is the magnitude of the negative shock, the greater its frequency and the larger its relative impact on the harvested population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, discourse and rhetoric in economics have received increasing discussion among economists. This paper contributes to the general debate by investigating the hitherto neglected topic of Keynes's views on the writing of economics, especially the writing of innovative or ground-breaking works. Five underlying principles are distilled from the ideas he presented in the 1920s and 1930s in essays on other economists and in reflections on his own experiences. These principles are replete with implications for all writing, reading and conversation in economics, regardless of time, place, type or participant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many bootstrap methods that can be used for econometric analysis. In certain circumstances, such as regression models with independent and identically distributed error terms, appropriately chosen bootstrap methods generally work very well. However, there are many other cases, such as regression models with dependent errors, in which bootstrap methods do not always work well. This paper discusses a large number of bootstrap methods that can be useful in econometrics. Applications to hypothesis testing are emphasized, and simulation results are presented for a few illustrative cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

‘Knowing what to measure and how to measure it makes a complicated world much less so. If you learn how to look at data in the right way, you can explain riddles that otherwise might have seemed impossible.’ (Steven Levitt & Stephen Dubner 2005, Freakonomics, William Morrow, p. 14) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does a country benefit from temporarily importing human capital? Do foreign academic visitors generate additional scholarly research on local issues? I use a survey in which visitors to ANU's Economics Program described their research before and after their visit and designated an otherwise similar non-visitor as a control. Matching to controls may thus be along observable and unobservable characteristics. These visits have a highly significant impact on the visitor's subsequent research, redirecting it toward Australia. Valuing this extra research based on scholarly citations received and the effects of citations on salaries shows substantial monetary gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the last three decades, regular surveys on household income were rare or non-existent in many developed countries, making it difficult for economists to develop long-run series on income distribution. Using taxation statistics, which tend to be available over a longer time span, I propose a method for imputing the incomes of non-taxpayers, and deriving the underlying distribution of income. Because taxation statistics are typically disaggregated by gender, it is possible to derive separate income distribution series for men and women in countries where individuals file separately. I show that over the past four decades, the distribution of adult male incomes and the distribution of family incomes are highly correlated. Applying this method to Australia, I develop a new annual series for inequality from 1942 to 2001. Inequality fell in the 1950s and the 1970s, and rose during the 1980s and 1990s – a pattern similar to that in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional wisdom in Australia is that policy aimed at reducing imbalances in the representation of different socioeconomic classes in the tertiary sector should be aimed at encouraging completion of high school. The analyses in this paper suggest, however, that most of the differences in the socioeconomic mix of tertiary students are due to different propensities of high school graduates to pursue tertiary studies. The relatively low rate of university participation among rural students, however, needs to be addressed by encouraging the completion of high school. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transmission process of monetary policy is a longstanding macroeconomic issue. The lending view is that a monetary tightening affects aggregate demand by shifting the supply schedule of bank loans left. The contraction of bank loans does not necessarily mean a shift of the supply schedule. Therefore, testing the lending view requires the identification of the shifts of the demand and supply schedules in the bank loan market. This paper employs an original approach, finding that the lending channel is not dominant in Australia. The paper also examines features of Australian banks' behavior which make the lending channel less dominant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on issues relevant to the activities of "The Economic Record" periodical in 2005. A table is presented on contributed submissions that were completed during 2001 through 2004, along with the number of articles published in each year. The editors also extended their deep gratitude to the many referees who have reviewed submissions for the periodical during 2004. The individuals have given generously their time and effort and in many cases provided reports on several papers. There was also an announcement on the Economic Society of Australia's 34th Australian Conference of Economists to be held at the University of Melbourne in September 2005.

I construct a monthly index of economic uncertainty for Australia. Economic uncertainty rose to historically high levels during the financial crisis and remained elevated until late 2013. The index is: higher around recessions, elections, monetary policy surprises and some major events; tends to increase faster than it decreases; and is driven by both domestic and foreign factors. I use the index to assess how uncertainty affects the Australian economy. Consistent with the 'real options' channel of uncertainty, I find that it reduces investment and employment growth. Similarly, uncertainty raises the household saving ratio, consistent with the 'precautionary savings' channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]