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The 52nd Australian Conference of Economists (ACE2024) is set to take place at the University of Adelaide from July 9-12, 2024. The conference, organized by the Economics Society of Australia and Women in Economics Network, will feature keynote speakers such as Professor Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board, Professor Marc Muendler from the University of California at San Diego, and Leonardo Bursztyn from the University of Chicago. Attendees can expect a range of sessions covering academic research, policy discussions, and important economic issues. Selected papers presented at the conference will be published in the Economic Record. For more information, visit the conference website at www.ace24.org or contact the organizing committee via email at ace24info@gmail.com or by calling Mark Henley, President of ESA - SA Branch, at 0404 067011. [Extracted from the article]

The awards were to Professor Lisa Cameron and Professor Ian McDonald. The selection committee comprising the chair, Professor Lionel Page, and committee members, Professor Shuping Shi and Professor Firmin Doko Tchatoka, reviewed papers published in the five issues of the I Economic Record i for 2022. IV Distinguished Fellow Public Policy Award 2023: Professor Meredith Edwards The ESA Distinguished Public Policy Fellow Award honours a distinguished Australian economist for their contribution to the application of economics to public policy. III Distinguished Fellow Award 2023: Professor Lisa Cameron and Professor Ian McDonald The ESA Distinguished Fellow Award honours a distinguished Australian economist for their contribution to the development of economics. [Extracted from the article]

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This paper documents firm mark‐ups and competition in Australia, and their impact on productivity, using administrative data. I find that mark‐ups increased by around 5 per cent since the mid 2000s, less than previously documented for Australia and slightly less than documented for the average advanced economy. While part appears to reflect technological change, part appears to reflect an increase in market power. This increase appears to explain part of the slowdown in productivity growth observed in Australia over the past decade, by slowing the efficient reallocation of resources from low productivity to high productivity firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an online Zoom webinar on 28 January 2022, President Danielle Wood was pleased to announce that Professor David Throsby AO is the Economic Society of Australia Distinguished Fellow for 2021. IV Young Economist Award 2021: Professor Stefanie Schurer In an online Zoom webinar on 28 January 2022, President Danielle Wood was pleased to announce that Professor Stefanie Schurer is the Economic Society of Australia Young Economist for 2021. VII Obituary for Emeritus Professor Geoff Colin Harcourt (UNSW Sydney) AC (1931-2021) Geoff Harcourt was an Australian economist who split most of his time between Australia and Cambridge, UK. V Best Paper Prize in the Economic Record in 2020 The selection committee comprising the chair, Professor Alison Preston, Professor Lisa Farrell and Professor Mariano Kulish reviewed the 28 papers published in the five issues of the I Economic Record i for 2020. [Extracted from the article]

This paper examines capital misallocation of manufacturing firms in Vietnam during the period 2008–17. Three sources of capital misallocation are investigated: adjustment costs, uncertainty and policy distortions. The findings reveal the modest contribution of adjustment costs to total misallocation. In contrast, policy distortions account for 81 per cent of capital misallocation in Vietnam and lead to a total factor productivity gap of 110 per cent in the manufacturing sector relative to the undistorted first‐best level. The paper examines one specific type of policy distortions – preferential treatments of state‐owned enterprises – and finds that these policies cause a 38 per cent loss in aggregate manufacturing productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overall, then, we have a pretty comprehensive survey of behavioural public finance - one well suited to the public finance economist who is looking to expand his or her toolkit. But after this opening, the Element turns its focus to the academic discipline of public finance, offering an instructive history of its development, and describing the ways in which behavioural economics influenced this literature. This focus makes this Element most useful to academics working in behavioural finance, who wish to understand how behavioural economics impacts their field and how they too can publish behavioural public finance papers. [Extracted from the article]

In 2011, I delivered a keynote address titled 'Predicting the Present with Google Trends' at the annual meeting of the Australian Conference of Economists. Working with my colleague Hyunyoung Choi, that talk turned into a paper that was subsequently published in the June 2012 proceedings of this journal. The paper received over 3000 citations in Google Scholar. This enthusiastic reception encouraged me to continue work with my colleague Steve Scott to develop new tools and new examples which are described in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper produces aggregate and industry estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) for New Zealand. TFP is estimated based on constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production functions that permit varying assumptions about factor augmentation and that allow for industry‐specific values of the elasticity of substitution between inputs. The CES approach simultaneously explains changes in labour share and output over time, and provides estimates of the contribution of capital and labour to productivity in New Zealand. The results suggest that negative capital‐augmenting technical change in several industries has weighed on productivity in New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alcohol taxation is an important policy instrument for correcting for market failures associated with excessive alcohol consumption. This paper examines the beverage‐specific negative externalities by providing empirical evidence linking ten alcoholic beverage types to drink‐driving and hazardous, disturbing or abusive behaviours when intoxicated, using data from six waves of an Australian recreational drug survey. We find that regular‐strength beer and pre‐mixed spirits in a can rank the highest in their links to negative behaviours, followed by mid‐strength beer, cask wine, and bottled spirits. Conversely, drinking low‐strength beer or fortified wine reduces the probability of these risky and unlawful behaviours. Bottled wine is shown to be associated with an elevated chance of drink‐driving but a reduced chance of other negative behaviours. In contrast to the existing volumetric tax rates for per litre of alcohol, of all harmful beverage types, cask wine appears to be significantly undertaxed relative to its external costs to society. We also note that regular‐ and mid‐strength beer are comparable to pre‐mixed drinks in terms of external costs, and yet there is a significant disparity across their tax rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of the relationship of central banks with other governmental monetary policy decision makers was examined. Currently, all major currencies are not tied to the value of any commodity and their value is based on the inclination of people to accept them as payment. The monetary policy systems now being practiced by many central banks was first proposed by John Maynard Keynes in 1923, with the concept of 'managed currency.' While central banks have developed a role as advisor and assistant to governments on matters of monetary policy, it was suggested that the power of central banks to create money and develop monetary policies should be separated from other government functions.

DSGE models incorporate attractive theoretical specifications of the behaviour of forward‐looking consumers facing an uncertain future. Central to these specifications is the idea that consuming agents decide their consumption level in year t by applying a function (policy rule) whose arguments represent information available in year t. Using the insight that, under certain conditions, the policy rule (but not the resulting policy) is invariant through time, DSGE modellers have developed the perturbation and other methods for quantitatively specifying policy rules. They have applied these methods in models with limited sectoral disaggregation. In this paper we adapt the perturbation method so that it can be used to specify a policy rule for consumption in a full‐scale CGE model. A novel feature of our method is the use of specially constructed CGE simulations to reveal key parameters used in deriving the policy rule. We apply our method in illustrative simulations of the effects of a technology shock in a 70‐sector version of the USAGE model of the US economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Tony was an accomplished economic theorist, his passion was applied public policy and the contribution economics could make to improving the economic welfare of Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. I By Professor Martin Richardson, Australian National University, and Professor Binh Tran-Nam, University of New South Wales i VII Vale Professor Anthony John Makin Anthony John Makin was born in Toowoomba, Queensland, on 7 June 1955 and passed away on 26 November 2021 at the age of 66. He made important contributions to four related areas of studies: natural resources and environmental economics; international trade; theory of dynamic games and dynamic optimisation; and applied microeconomic theory, particularly industrial organisation theory and public economics. Tony was Professor of Economics in the Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics at Griffith Business School, Griffith University, and Director of Griffith's APEC Study Centre. [Extracted from the article]

This paper examines the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on Taiwan's fertility by exploiting a natural experiment in which public‐sector workers are unaffected due to job security. The financial crisis reduces the number of children by increasing the first‐birth interval, which leads to a lower probability of first birth. Women aged 33–38 experienced the largest decline in the probability of first birth, increasing the risks of permanent childlessness. Low‐income households and those with less‐educated spouses have a greater increase in the first‐birth interval. The number of children and the probability of first birth remain significantly lower 9 years after 2008. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the nature of earnings dynamics in Australia, using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey 2001–2020. Our results indicate that the distribution of earnings shocks displays negative skewness and excess kurtosis, deviating from the conventional linearity and normality assumptions. Wage changes are strongly associated with earnings changes and account more for the dispersion of earnings shocks; meanwhile, the contribution of hour changes is largely absent in upward movement and relatively small in downward movement of earnings changes. Furthermore, family and government insurance plays distinct roles in reducing exposure to earnings risk. Government insurance embedded in the targeted transfer system is important in mitigating the dispersion of shocks, whereas family insurance via income pooling and adjustment of secondary earners' labour market activities is dominant in reducing the magnitude and likelihood of extreme and rare shocks. The magnitude and persistence of earnings risk as well as the insurance role of family and government vary significantly across gender, marital and parental status. Accounting for these non‐Gaussian and non‐linearity features is important for evaluating the insurance role of government transfer programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the two‐way interaction between central banks and financial markets using a beauty contest framework. The analysis identifies when asset prices reveal useful information about fundamentals and when they reflect back the central bank's pronouncements. In equilibrium, the central bank is overly dependent on financial market signals and the information value of asset prices is diminished. Our results highlight the need to guard against giving undue prominence to market signals during monetary policy deliberations, but they can be specific to the mathematical model employed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the difference in academic performance of the oldest (treated) and youngest (control) students in a given grade. We employ Queensland Department of Education school administration panel data for the population of 2008–2016 state school students. Academic performance is measured using standardised test scores (National Assessments Program in Numeracy and Literacy) and teacher‐assessed measures of performance and effort for individuals in grades 3, 5 and 7. The empirical analysis employs a regression discontinuity design based on birth date relative to administrative rules on age of school enrolment. The class‐assigning mechanism operates via a known cut‐off date and results in the oldest child in the grade being almost a year older than the youngest. However, lack of enrolment compliance implies the regression discontinuity design is fuzzy rather than sharp, identifying the local average treatment effect rather than the average treatment effect. In particular, given the one‐sided nature of non‐compliance, we employ the partially fuzzy estimator of Battistin and Rettore (Journal of Econometrics, 142, 715–30, 2008). Exploiting a 2008 enrolment cut‐off date reform, which delayed school starting age by 6 months, we find a large increase in enrolment compliance. This exogenous change in the enrolment age enables one to gauge the importance of enrolment non‐compliance in estimating the treatment effect of being older versus younger in cohort. We find that pre‐reform the treatment effect is small and generally statistically insignificant and post‐reform it is sizeable and statistically significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID‐19 pandemic has had widespread impacts on the labour market and on individuals' well‐being. This paper examines gender differences in the relationship between labour market outcomes and well‐being over the pandemic. We draw on longitudinal data from the ANUpoll survey that has been conducted before COVID‐19 and at several points throughout the pandemic. We find higher levels of well‐being among those who are employed relative to most other labour market outcomes, controlling for individual random effects. These gaps in well‐being are greatly reduced or disappear after controlling for financial circumstances and health. We also observe gender differences in the relationship between well‐being and labour market outcomes, in particular: (i) life satisfaction is more closely related to labour market outcomes for females relative to males, and (ii) there is a stronger association between being unemployed and not actively looking and serious mental distress for males relative to females. Well‐being tends to be lower during lockdowns and during the Omicron wave in January 2022, particularly among females. Our findings have implications for ongoing and future pandemic policies. Where restrictions that reduce employment are necessary, we show that during a pandemic financial support has the potential to reduce or in some cases potentially close the gap in well‐being between those who are employed and those in other employment activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper surveys the writings of Peter Lloyd, one of Australia's best-known economists, who has been elected Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia. It notes the importance of his work, mostly done jointly with Herbert Grubel, on intra-industry trade, and his extensive contributions to trade theory. In addition there have been many papers on the global trading system and regionalism, and on the Australian and New Zealand economies. It describes his approach to economics and his many professional activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper analyses citations in the work of a large number of PhD students. We show that the pattern of citations of journal articles, books and other reference material differs substantially across areas within economics. An investigation of reciprocal citations reveals a surprisingly low degree of communication among the Group of Eight universities and a high propensity to cite authors from the same institution, especially supervisors. We also analyse the Australian share of cited works, and identify journals, articles and authors that PhD students value highly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence that demonstrates the importance of digital technologies in promoting economic growth, drawing on the literature on advances in growth and leveraging a broader and more robust country-level panel dataset. In particular, this paper estimates the long-run economic impact of digital technologies using mobile phone penetration and internet usage as broad indicators. The empirical results suggest that, between 2004 and 2014, the diffusion of digital technologies significantly improved economic output in Australia and abroad, contributing to steady-state gross domestic product per capita growth of approximately 5.8 per cent on average. These findings could serve as the starting-point for predictions about the likely impact of future technologies, providing a better understanding for policy-makers in prioritising initiatives that will continue to lift living standards in the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides the first estimates of the extent of common ownership of competing firms in Australia. Combining data on market shares and substantial shareholdings, we calculate the impact of common ownership on effective market concentration. Among firms where we can identify at least one owner, 31 per cent share a substantial owner with a rival company. Analysing 443 industries, we identify 49 that exhibit common ownership, including commercial banking, explosives manufacturing, fuel retailing, insurance and iron ore mining. Across the Australian economy, common ownership increases effective market concentration by 21 per cent. Our estimates imply that if listed firms seek to maximise the value of their investors' portfolios, then they place the same value on $3.70 of their competitors' profits as on $1 of their own profits. We discuss the limitations of the available data, and the potential implications of common ownership for competition in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the factors contributing to Australia's gender gap in superannuation balances. Around 60 per cent of the gap can be attributed to the prior stock of superannuation, for respondents who had superannuation balances in both 2014 and 2018 in the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. This is partly due to the accumulation of the prior gap with investment returns. Financial literacy and risk aversion explain around 7 per cent of the gap in total, such as through impacts on subsequent investment returns. Work patterns and wage rates affect contributions and explain approximately 30 per cent of the superannuation gap in total. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the gender gap in financial literacy and pension savings is examined in this paper. In Australia, individuals have considerable discretion with respect to how their pension savings are managed. We argue that financial literacy should have a positive impact on the profitability of these decisions. Analysis based on micro‐data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey suggests that a sizable share of the gender gap in pension savings can be attributed to the gender gap in financial literacy. Therefore, policies aimed at improving the financial literacy of women should help improve the living standards of women in retirement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian Federation in 1901 entailed the formation of a customs union among its formerly tariff‐autonomous colonies. Although the elimination of tariff barriers to intercolonial/interstate trade would have been welfare‐enhancing, Australia's common external tariff was set considerably higher than the tariffs on external goods imported by the pre‐Federation colonies, implying a welfare reduction. Using a dataset of 3,584 commodity‐ and colony‐disaggregated imports, this paper estimates trade restrictiveness indices and welfare losses for the Australian colonies and Commonwealth. Despite the high external tariff post Federation, the customs union produced a net static welfare gain conservatively estimated to have been 0.17 per cent of GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research to date has failed to generate a comprehensive understanding of the source of the gender gap in financial literacy in adulthood. Using microdata from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and an analysis covering four age groups (15–19, 20–24, 25–29 and 30–34), this paper suggests that the gender gap starts young and well before individuals enter adulthood. The analysis also suggests that that raw (unadjusted) gender gap likely underestimates the underlying gap. It is important to establish whether the gap begins before or after children enter school, since policy aimed at addressing it would be very different. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Journal ranking is a hazardous endeavour even if it is based on objective criteria. Additional problems arise from the use of an opinion-based bucket classification of journals. As a bucket classification system, the ABDC list encourages rent-seeking and arbitrage whereby a researcher goes for the lowest-quality journal within each bucket or moves to another bucket. The quality of research output should not be judged on the basis of a predetermined list. It would be beneficial if the Australian Business Deans Council list were abandoned for the same reasons that led to the abandonment of the Excellence in Research for Australia list. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]