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For nearly two years the Japanese economy has grown significantly faster than commentators expected, raising the question of whether the country has finally broken out of its long economic malaise. This article by Simon Knapp examines recent developments to see whether this recovery is sustainable. It argues that over the last year the recovery has broadened out beyond merely the export sector, although there are good reasons to believe that growth as measured by GOP has been overstated and that many serious structural problems remain. Business investment has surged on the back of rising profitability and an improved labour market has helped lift consumer confidence. At the same time the paper recognises the importance of China's boom in stimulating the Japanese economy over the last two years, and estimates that this factor may have boosted the level of GDP by between 1 to 2%. With Chinese growth now moderating to more sustainable levels, export growth will slow over the next year or so. However, domestic demand should now be strong enough, in the absence of major external shocks, to generate GDP growth of around 1.5 to 2% per annum in the medium term; a respectable figure given the country's falling population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overview: 2016 - unhappy New Year? 2016 has got off to a shaky start, with sharp declines in global equity markets and renewed jitters about China and its currency. Recent asset market trends have prompted some observers to suggest a high risk of a global recession this year., A glance back at recent history suggests why. Since last May, global stocks and non-fuel commodity prices have both dropped by 12-13%. Over the last forty years, such a combination in a similar time frame has usually been associated with recession., There have been exceptions to this pattern; there were similar sell-offs in stocks and commodities in 2011, 1998 and 1984 without associated recessions. Notably though, in at least two of these cases, expansionary US policy helped reverse market movements - but US policy is now headed in the opposite direction., More heart can be taken from the relative resilience of real economy developments in many of the advanced economies over recent months. There are few signs, for instance of sharp declines in consumer or business confidence, or in property prices., Policy settings also remain expansionary in the Eurozone, Japan and China - where broad money and growth has moved higher in recent months., Industry remains the problem area, both for commodity price-sensitive extractive sectors and manufacturing. The global manufacturing PMI continues to suggest very subdued output growth., Services output remains more robust, and should be supported during 2016 by tightening labour markets - December's strong US payrolls release was encouraging in this regard., But there are downside risks to services, too, should stock price declines hit consumer spending. Our Global Economic Model suggests a 15% fall in world stocks may cut global GDP by 0.4-0.7%., As a result, there is a real danger that our global growth forecast of 2.6% for 2016 proves too optimistic with growth instead slipping below last year's already-modest 2.5% reading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This section provides information on the world economy as of March 2009. Early indications for the first quarter of 2009 point to the chronic weakness in output seen in the last months of 2008 having continued. Consumer confidence reached a record low, business enterprises are reducing payrolls, orders and production, and home prices and the stock market continue to decline. New orders of manufacturers dropped for a fifth consecutive month in January 2009, to a level 19 percent below the year-earlier period.

The article reports on the economic performance of Great Britain. The downward revision of gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.1 percent in the first and second quarter of 2011 indicates a smaller economy than that in the third quarter of 2010, and although business confidence has decreased, consumer confidence has stabilised in September. The article states that although unemployment will increase, the economy is expected to gradually recover and consumer spending will improve in 2012.