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The 1974 trade act substantially increased the executive branch's authority in trade negotiations through the granting of fast‐track and Section 301 authority. This paper evaluates the effect on U.S. voting behavior resulting from trade with Japan over 1976–1992 time period. To capture U.S. trade exposures to Japan, we develop the Bartik index from Autor et al. (2013) for import competition with Japan and show that local exposure to import competition had statistically significant negative impacts on Republican presidential candidates over the 1976–1984 period. Although the second Reagan administration used Section 301 to open Japan's markets and Japanese firms shifted production to the United States, job‐creation effects of exports and foreign direct investment did not have any influence on voting outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the productivity of working from home (WFH) practices during the COVID‐19 pandemic. The results reveal that the mean WFH productivity relative to working at the usual workplace was about 60%–70%, and it was lower for employees and firms that started WFH practice only after the spread of the COVID‐19 pandemic. However, there was a large dispersion of WFH productivity, both by individual and firm characteristics. Highly educated and high‐wage employees tended to exhibit a small reduction in WFH productivity. The results obtained from the employee and employer surveys were generally consistent with each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The labor force in Japan is projected to fall from 64 million in 2014 to 20 million in 2100, signaling unprecedented tax/transfer adjustments to achieve fiscal sustainability. In this paper, we develop a quantitative overlapping generations model to measure the impact of guest worker programs in Japan. Against a baseline general equilibrium transition in which the consumption tax adjusts to achieve fiscal sustainability, we compute alternative transitions with guest worker programs. Depending on the size and skill distribution of guest workers, these programs may mitigate Japan's fiscal imbalance problem with a relatively manageable increase in the consumption tax. ( JEL E2, E6, H5, J11, J15) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how firms' decision to start exporting is affected by the availability of information on export markets. Unlike existing studies that focus on information sharing among firms, we are interested in the information provided by firms' main bank. Specifically, using a unique data set containing information on both Japanese firms' export activities and the experience of their main bank (i.e., their top lender bank) in transacting with other exporting firms, we examine whether main banks act as a conduit of information on export markets. We find that information spillovers through main banks positively affect client firms' decision to start exporting (extensive margin), implying that information on foreign markets provided by banks substantially reduces the fixed entry cost of exporting. On the other hand, we do not find any evidence that information provided by banks has an effect on the export volume or on the growth rate of exports (intensive margin). Our results highlight that channels of information spillovers other than those examined in the literature so far may be of considerable importance. ( JEL F10, F14, G21) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is twofold: 1) to develop a theoretical framework for the analysis of export supply which is empirically more fruitful than existing approaches, and 2) to present an empirical application of the theory to the market for Japanese steel, thereby quantifying important export supply elasticities not dealt with in the past. Evidence is presented which indicates that the supply of Japanese steel exports to the U.S. is price elastic, and sensitive to Japanese and rest of world demand conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how lighthouses were provided in premodern Japan, with a specific focus on the role of the private sector. Using national survey data on lighthouses collected by the government in 1883, we find that lighthouses constructed by the private sector in the Edo period (1603−1868) accounted for nearly 70% of lighthouses existing at the time of the survey and that there was no significant difference in technical features between private and public lighthouses. However, we observe that almost all private lighthouses were located at ports, and additional case studies indicate that the public authorities endorsed the operation of some lighthouses, which might have contributed to their profits and improved their long‐term survival. We also find that various factors, including the formation of merchant coalitions and whether users were identifiable, influenced whether a private organization could circumvent the free rider problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An intertemporal optimization model is developed to examine the determinants of the long‐run nominal yen‐dollar exchange rate in the presence of national debts. The model is tested empirically using data from Japan and the United States. The proposed theoretical specification is well supported by the data and shows that relative national debts as well as monetary and financial factors may play a significant role in the determination of the long‐run nominal exchange rate between the yen and the dollar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Standard theoretical models predict that higher inflation expectations generate greater current consumer spending at the zero lower bound of interest rates. However, recent empirical studies using U.S. micro data find negative results for this relationship. We use micro data for Japan, which has experienced low interest rates for a prolonged period, to estimate ordered probit models with a variety of controls. We find robust evidence supporting the prediction of standard models: survey respondents with higher expected inflation tend to indicate that their household has increased real spending compared with 1 year ago but will decrease it in the future. This relationship appears to be stronger for asset holders and older people. ( JEL E20, E21, E30, E31, E50, E52) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The methodology of measuring central bank independence suggested by Bade and Parkin three decades ago and inverse correlations between the measures and inflation have been widely accepted. The measurement literature has made important contributions identifying elements of institutional design that establish the relationship between the central bank and the government and the measurements from an ordinal perspective provide some useful insights about the major institutional redesigns of central banks during the past several decades. At the same time, the measurement literature is problematic. First, a dummy variable bifurcating central banks into groups of independent and less independent central banks can duplicate the standard correlations suggesting the information content of the specific measures is limited; second, the correlations between inflation and measures of independence are not as stable as claimed; and most important, the measurements are subject to classification problems that have not been fully appreciated. Review of the institutional design and history of the Bank of Korea, Bank of Japan, and the Federal Reserve provide evidence the classification problems are important. The measures of independence are more appropriately regarded as ordinal rankings of central bank independence rather than considered cardinal measures suitable for econometric modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Which labor market specification is better able to describe inflation dynamics, a widely used sticky wage model or a recently investigated labor market search model? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate these two models with Japan's data. This article shows that the labor market search model is superior to the sticky wage model in terms of both marginal likelihood and out-of-sample forecast performance, particularly regarding inflation. The labor market search model is better able to replicate the cross-correlation among inflation, real wages, and output in the data. Moreover, in this model, real marginal cost is determined by both hiring cost and unit labor cost that varies with employment fluctuations, which gives rise to a high contemporaneous correlation between inflation and real marginal cost as represented in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the impact of offshoring on productivity using firm-level data for the Japanese manufacturing industries during the period 1994-2000. We find that intrafirm offshoring, that is, sourcing of intermediate inputs to foreign affiliates within a particular multinational firm, has generally a positive effect on productivity of the offshoring firm, while arm's-length offshoring, that is, sourcing to unaffiliated foreign firms, does not have such an effect. In addition, the impact of arm's-length offshoring is negative for nonmultinationals and nonexporters but nonnegative for multinationals and exporters. These results suggest that the costs of searching foreign firms suitable for offshoring are nonnegligible. ( JEL F14, L23) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in Japan, focusing on the measurement of real marginal cost (RMC). Especially, we correct labor share by taking account of two kinds of labor market frictions: (1) labor adjustment costs and (2) real wage rigidity. Our results show that the consideration of these labor market frictions greatly improves the fit of Japan’s NKPC. Furthermore, if we additionally incorporate materials prices in the calculation of RMC then the fit of the NKPC is further improved. The conventional backward-looking component is no more needed to explain Japan’s inflation dynamics if we use a corrected measure of RMC. (JEL E31) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]