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In this paper we characterize the bank mortgage borrowers in Chile and propose models to assess their credit risk. In particular, we study the mortgagors’ payment profile based on an empirical analysis that includes information of more than 150,000 new debtors during the period 2012-2014. Both the specify features of mortgage debt as initial loan amount and maturities, as well as debtor´s characteristics as credit history, illiquidity and coverage ratio are related to the probability of mortgage default. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study household debt default behavior in Chile using survey data. Previous research in this area suggests financial and personal variables help estimate individual and group probabilities of default. We study mortgage and consumer default separately, as the default decisions and overall borrower behavior are different for each type of debt. Our study finds that income and income-related variables are the only significant and robust variables that explain default for both types of debt. Demographic or personal variables are affected by only one type of debt but not more. For example, the level of education is a factor that affects mortgage default, whereas the determinants of consumer debt default include the age of the household head, and the number of people within the household that contribute to the total family income. We find that the probability of default decreases as the family income increases, and that our estimations are consistent with other studies similar to ours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes the inflow into non-performing loans (INPL) ratio, defined as the change in the stock of non-performing loans adjusted by write-offs and standardized by loans, as the main measure to be used for modelling the credit risk of the Chilean banking system. In particular, the paper identifies certain statistical and conceptual advantages of this measure with respect to loan loss provisions (LLP), which support this idea. First, the INPL ratio by type of credit has a greater time span than LLP. Second, the forward-looking nature of LLP --one of its main advantages over the INPL ratio-- is applicable only from 2004 onward due to various changes in Chilean reporting standards. Third, LLP is discretionary because provisioning is made on the basis of relative risk aversion of banks. Fourth, the INPL ratio produces smoother series than LLP for consumer and mortgage loans. In addition, the dynamic structure observed in both time series does not differ significantly. The econometric model estimated for the period January 1997 to June 2010 shows that the INPL ratio has statistically significant relations with macroeconomic aggregates such as the annual output growth, the short and long term interest rates, the annual inflation rate, the peso-dollar exchange rate, and non expected credit growth. Finally, the out-of-sample forecasts indicate differences between the actual and projected INPL ratios that are economically significant only in the case of mortgage credit. For the remaining portfolios, the evolution of this ratio during the period of July 2008 to June 2010 does not differ significantly from that predicted by the econometric model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper poses a new methodology to estimate the required economic capital for a retail credit portfolio. The methodology is based on both the general copula concept and some core results from the extreme value theory (EVT). The main results support the fact that the proposed methodology is more flexible than other traditional techniques, in particular when it makes use of generalized elliptical and/or grouped t Student copulas to model the dependence structure of risk-parameters or when it includes elements of the EVT to analyze the extreme loss behavior of a retail credit portfolio. In applying algorithms, the paper includes data from a Mexican bank. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]