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Pairwise interactions between species can be modified by other community members, leading to emergent dynamics contingent on community composition. Despite the prevalence of such higher‐order interactions, little is known about how they are linked to the timing and order of species' arrival. We generate population dynamics from a mechanistic plant–soil feedback model, then apply a general theoretical framework to show that the modification of a pairwise interaction by a third plant depends on its germination phenology. These time‐dependent interaction modifications emerge from concurrent changes in plant and microbe populations and are strengthened by higher overlap between plants' associated microbiomes. The interaction between this overlap and the specificity of microbiomes further determines plant coexistence. Our framework is widely applicable to mechanisms in other systems from which similar time‐dependent interaction modifications can emerge, highlighting the need to integrate temporal shifts of species interactions to predict the emergent dynamics of natural communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral bleaching, the stress‐induced breakdown of coral‐algal symbiosis, threatens reefs globally. Paradoxically, despite adverse fitness effects, corals bleach annually, even outside of abnormal temperatures. This generally occurs shortly after the once‐per‐year mass coral spawning. Here, we propose a hypothesis linking annual coral bleaching and the transmission of symbionts to the next generation of coral hosts. We developed a dynamic model with two symbiont growth strategies, and found that high sexual recruitment and low adult coral survivorship and growth favour bleaching susceptibility, while the reverse promotes bleaching resilience. Otherwise, unexplained trends in the Indo‐Pacific align with our hypothesis, where reefs and coral taxa exhibiting higher recruitment are more bleaching susceptible. The results from our model caution against interpreting potential shifts towards more bleaching‐resistant symbionts as evidence of climate adaptation—we predict such a shift could also occur in declining systems experiencing low recruitment rates, a common scenario on today's reefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two controversial tenets of metapopulation biology are whether patch quality and the surrounding matrix are more important to turnover (colonisation and extinction) than biogeography (patch area and isolation) and whether factors governing turnover during equilibrium also dominate nonequilibrium dynamics. We tested both tenets using 18 years of surveys for two secretive wetland birds, black and Virginia rails, during (1) a period of equilibrium with stable occupancy and (2) after drought and arrival of West Nile Virus (WNV), which resulted in WNV infections in rails, increased extinction and decreased colonisation probabilities modified by WNV, nonequilibrium dynamics for both species and occupancy decline for black rails. Area (primarily) and isolation (secondarily) drove turnover during both stable and unstable metapopulation dynamics, greatly exceeding the effects of patch quality and matrix conditions. Moreover, slopes between turnover and patch characteristics changed little between equilibrium and nonequilibrium, confirming the overriding influences of biogeographic factors on turnover.

Theorists have identified several mechanisms through which species that compete exploitatively for resources could coexist. By contrast, under the current theory, interference competitors could coexist only in rare circumstances. Yet, some types of interference competition, such as interspecific territoriality, are common. This mismatch between theory and nature inspired us to model interference competition in an eco-evolutionary framework. We based the model on the life cycle of territorial birds and ran simulations to examine whether natural selection could rescue a superior interference competitor from extinction without driving a superior exploitative competitor extinct. We found that coexistence between interference competitors can occur over a wide range of ecologically plausible scenarios, and up to the highest levels of resource overlap. An important caveat is that coexistence requires the species to co-evolve. Reductions in population size and levels of genetic variation could destabilise coexistence between interference competitors, and thereby increase extinction rates over current estimates.

Global change is rapidly and fundamentally altering many of the processes regulating the flux of energy throughout ecosystems, and although researchers now understand the effect of temperature on key rates (such as aquatic primary productivity), the theoretical foundation needed to generate forecasts of biomass dynamics and extinction risk remains underdeveloped. We develop new theory that describes the interconnected effects of nutrients and temperature on phytoplankton populations and show that the thermal response of equilibrium biomass (i.e. carrying capacity) always peaks at a lower temperature than for productivity (i.e. growth rate). This mismatch is driven by differences in the thermal responses of growth, death, and per‐capita impact on the nutrient pool, making our results highly general and applicable to widely used population models beyond phytoplankton. We further show that non‐equilibrium dynamics depend on the pace of environmental change relative to underlying vital rates and that populations respond to variable environments differently at high versus low temperatures due to thermal asymmetries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insects are key components of food chains, and monitoring data provides new opportunities to identify trophic relationships at broad spatial and temporal scales. Here, combining two monitoring datasets from Great Britain, we reveal how the population dynamics of the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus are influenced by the abundance of moths – a core component of their breeding diet. We find that years with increased population growth for blue tits correlate strongly with high moth abundance, but population growth in moths and birds is less well correlated; suggesting moth abundance directly affects bird population change. Next, we identify moths that are important components of blue tit diet, recovering associations to species previously identified as key food sources such as the winter moth Operoptera brumata. Our work provides new evidence that insect abundance impacts bird population dynamics in natural communities and provides insight into spatial diet turnover at a national‐scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beyond abiotic conditions, do population dynamics mostly depend on a species' direct predators, preys and conspecifics? Or can indirect feedback that ripples across the whole community be equally important? Determining where ecological communities sit on the spectrum between these two characterizations requires a metric able to capture the difference between them. Here we show that the spectral radius of a community's interaction matrix provides such a metric, thus a measure of ecological collectivity, which is accessible from imperfect knowledge of biotic interactions and related to observable signatures. This measure of collectivity integrates existing approaches to complexity, interaction structure and indirect interactions. Our work thus provides an original perspective on the question of to what degree communities are more than loose collections of species or simple interaction motifs and explains when pragmatic reductionist approaches ought to suffice or fail when applied to ecological communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seed production and dispersal are crucial ecological processes impacting plant demography, species distributions and community assembly. Plant–animal interactions commonly mediate both seed production and seed dispersal, but current research often examines pollination and seed dispersal separately, which hinders our understanding of how pollination services affect downstream dispersal services. To fill this gap, we propose a conceptual framework exploring how pollen limitation can impact the effectiveness of seed dispersal for endozoochorous and myrmecochorous plant species. We summarize the quantitative and qualitative effects of pollen limitation on plant reproduction and use Optimal Foraging Theory to predict its impact on the foraging behaviour of seed dispersers. In doing so, we offer a new framework that poses numerous hypotheses and empirical tests to investigate links between pollen limitation and seed dispersal effectiveness and, consequently, post‐dispersal ecological processes occurring at different levels of biological organization. Finally, considering the importance of pollination and seed dispersal outcomes to plant eco‐evolutionary dynamics, we discussed the implications of our framework for future studies exploring the demographic and evolutionary impacts of pollen limitation for animal‐dispersed plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species' life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Bird species on islands are strongly impacted by biological invasions, with the Icelandic common eider (Somateria mollissima borealis) being particularly threatened. Down collection by local families in Breiðafjörður, West Iceland, provided long‐term datasets of nests from two archipelagos, covering 95 islands over 123 years and 39 islands over 27 years, respectively. Using these exceptional datasets, we found that the arrival of the invasive semi‐aquatic American mink (Neogale vison) was a more impactful driver of population dynamics than climate. This invasive predator heavily reduced eider nest numbers by ca. 60% in the Brokey archipelago. In contrast, we detected an apparently adaptive response to the return of the native fox in the Purkey archipelago, with dense nests on islands inaccessible to the fox and no apparent impact on eider populations. This difference might be due to the eiders lacking a joint evolutionary history with the mink and therefore lacking appropriate antipredator responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial heterogeneity is a fundamental feature of ecosystems, and ecologists have identified it as a factor promoting the stability of population dynamics. In particular, differences in interaction strengths and resource supply between patches generate an asymmetry of biomass turnover with a fast and a slow patch coupled by a mobile predator. Here, we demonstrate that asymmetry leads to opposite stability patterns in metacommunities receiving localized perturbations depending on the characteristics of the perturbed patch. Perturbing prey in the fast patch synchronizes the dynamics of prey biomass between the two patches and destabilizes predator dynamics by increasing the predator's temporal variability. Conversely, perturbing prey in the slow patch decreases the synchrony of the prey's dynamics and stabilizes predator dynamics. Our results have implications for conservation ecology and suggest reinforcing protection policies in fast patches to dampen the effects of perturbations and promote the stability of population dynamics at the regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A universal feature of ecological systems is that species do not interact with others with the same sign and strength. Yet, the consequences of this asymmetry in biotic interactions for the short‐ and long‐term persistence of individual species and entire communities remains unclear. Here, we develop a set of metrics to evaluate how asymmetric interactions among species translate to asymmetries in their individual vulnerability to extinction under changing environmental conditions. These metrics, which solve previous limitations of how to independently quantify the size from the shape of the so‐called feasibility domain, provide rigorous advances to understand simultaneously why some species and communities present more opportunities to persist than others. We further demonstrate that our shape‐related metrics are useful to predict short‐term changes in species' relative abundances during 7 years in a Mediterranean grassland. Our approach is designed to be applied to any ecological system regardless of the number of species and type of interactions. With it, we show that is possible to obtain both mechanistic and predictive information on ecological persistence for individual species and entire communities, paving the way for a stronger integration of theoretical and empirical research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial life in low‐energy ecosystems relies on individual energy conservation, optimizing energy use in response to interspecific competition and mutualistic interspecific syntrophy. Our study proposes a novel community‐level strategy for increasing energy use efficiency. By utilizing an oxidation–reduction (redox) reaction network model that represents microbial redox metabolic interactions, we investigated multiple species‐level competition and cooperation within the network. Our results suggest that microbial functional diversity allows for metabolic handoffs, which in turn leads to increased energy use efficiency. Furthermore, the mutualistic division of labour and the resulting complexity of redox pathways actively drive material cycling, further promoting energy exploitation. Our findings reveal the potential of self‐organized ecological interactions to develop efficient energy utilization strategies, with important implications for microbial ecosystem functioning and the co‐evolution of life and Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Directly observing autotrophic biomass at ecologically relevant frequencies is difficult in many ecosystems, hampering our ability to predict productivity through time. Since disturbances can impart distinct reductions in river productivity through time by modifying underlying standing stocks of biomass, mechanistic models fit to productivity time series can infer underlying biomass dynamics. We incorporated biomass dynamics into a river ecosystem productivity model for six rivers to identify disturbance flow thresholds and understand the resilience of primary producers. The magnitude of flood necessary to disturb biomass and thereby reduce ecosystem productivity was consistently lower than the more commonly used disturbance flow threshold of the flood magnitude necessary to mobilize river bed sediment. The estimated daily maximum percent increase in biomass (a proxy for resilience) ranged from 5% to 42% across rivers. Our latent biomass model improves understanding of disturbance thresholds and recovery patterns of autotrophic biomass within river ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our ability to understand population spread dynamics is complicated by rapid evolution, which renders simple ecological models insufficient. If dispersal ability evolves, more highly dispersive individuals may arrive at the population edge than less dispersive individuals (spatial sorting), accelerating spread. If individuals at the low‐density population edge benefit (escape competition), high dispersers have a selective advantage (spatial selection). These two processes are often described as forming a positive feedback loop; they reinforce each other, leading to faster spread. Although spatial sorting is close to universal, this form of spatial selection is not: low densities can be detrimental for organisms with Allee effects. Here, we present two conceptual models to explore the feedback loops that form between spatial sorting and spatial selection. We show that the presence of an Allee effect can reverse the positive feedback loop between spatial sorting and spatial selection, creating a negative feedback loop that slows population spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dendritic habitats, such as river ecosystems, promote the persistence of species by favouring spatial asynchronous dynamics among branches. Yet, our understanding of how network topology influences metapopulation synchrony in these ecosystems remains limited. Here, we introduce the concept of fluvial synchrogram to formulate and test expectations regarding the geography of metapopulation synchrony across watersheds. By combining theoretical simulations and an extensive fish population time-series dataset across Europe, we provide evidence that fish metapopulations can be buffered against synchronous dynamics as a direct consequence of network connectivity and branching complexity. Synchrony was higher between populations connected by direct water flow and decayed faster with distance over the Euclidean than the watercourse dimension. Likewise, synchrony decayed faster with distance in headwater than mainstem populations of the same basin. As network topology and flow directionality generate fundamental spatial patterns of synchrony in fish metapopulations, empirical synchrograms can aid knowledge advancement and inform conservation strategies in complex habitats.

Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.

Theory and analyses of fisheries data sets indicate that harvesting can alter population structure and destabilise non‐linear processes, which increases population fluctuations. We conducted a factorial experiment on the population dynamics of Daphnia magna in relation to size‐selective harvesting and stochasticity of food supply. Harvesting and stochasticity treatments both increased population fluctuations. Timeseries analysis indicated that fluctuations in control populations were non‐linear, and non‐linearity increased substantially in response to harvesting. Both harvesting and stochasticity induced population juvenescence, but harvesting did so via the depletion of adults, whereas stochasticity increased the abundance of juveniles. A fitted fisheries model indicated that harvesting shifted populations towards higher reproductive rates and larger‐magnitude damped oscillations that amplify demographic noise. These findings provide experimental evidence that harvesting increases the non‐linearity of population fluctuations and that both harvesting and stochasticity increase population variability and juvenescence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual‐based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change—increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three‐fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Competition is among the most important factors regulating plant population and community dynamics, but we know little about how different vital rates respond to competition and jointly determine population growth and species coexistence. We conducted a field experiment and parameterised integral projection models to model the population growth of 14 herbaceous plant species in the absence and presence of neighbours across an elevation gradient (284 interspecific pairs). We found that suppressed individual growth and seedling establishment contributed the most to competition‐induced declines in population growth, although vital rate contributions varied greatly between species and with elevation. In contrast, size‐specific survival and flowering probability and seed production were frequently enhanced under competition. These compensatory vital rate responses were nearly ubiquitous (occurred in 92% of species pairs) and significantly reduced niche overlap and stabilised coexistence. Our study highlights the importance of demographic processes for regulating population and community dynamics, which has often been neglected by classic coexistence theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managing ecological communities requires fast detection of species that are sensitive to perturbations. Yet, the focus on recovery to equilibrium has prevented us from assessing species responses to perturbations when abundances fluctuate over time. Here, we introduce two data‐driven approaches (expected sensitivity and eigenvector rankings) based on the time‐varying Jacobian matrix to rank species over time according to their sensitivity to perturbations on abundances. Using several population dynamics models, we demonstrate that we can infer these rankings from time‐series data to predict the order of species sensitivities. We find that the most sensitive species are not always the ones with the most rapidly changing or lowest abundance, which are typical criteria used to monitor populations. Finally, using two empirical time series, we show that sensitive species tend to be harder to forecast. Our results suggest that incorporating information on species interactions can improve how we manage communities out of equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting whether, how, and to what degree communities recover from disturbance remain major challenges in ecology. To predict recovery of coral communities we applied field survey data of early recovery dynamics to a multi-species integral projection model that captured key demographic processes driving coral population trajectories, notably density-dependent larval recruitment. After testing model predictions against field observations, we updated the model to generate projections of future coral communities. Our results indicated that communities distributed across an island landscape followed different recovery trajectories but would reassemble to pre-disturbed levels of coral abundance, composition, and size, thus demonstrating persistence in the provision of reef habitat and other ecosystem services. Our study indicates that coral community dynamics are predictable when accounting for the interplay between species life-history, environmental conditions, and density-dependence. We provide a quantitative framework for evaluating the ecological processes underlying community trajectory and characteristics important to ecosystem functioning.

Temporal variation in environmental conditions affects population growth directly via its impact on vital rates, and indirectly through induced variation in demographic structure and phenotypic trait distributions. We currently know very little about how these processes jointly mediate population responses to their environment. To address this gap, we develop a general transient life table response experiment (LTRE) which partitions the contributions to population growth arising from variation in (1) survival and reproduction, (2) demographic structure, (3) trait values and (4) climatic drivers. We apply the LTRE to a population of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to demonstrate the impact of demographic and trait-mediated processes. Our analysis provides a new perspective on demographic buffering, which may be a more subtle phenomena than is currently assumed. The new LTRE framework presents opportunities to improve our understanding of how trait variation influences population dynamics and adaptation in stochastic environments.

Unexpected population crashes are an important feature of natural systems, yet many observed crashes have not been explained. Two difficulties in explaining population crashes are their relative rarity and the multi‐causal nature of ecological systems. We approach this issue with experimental microcosms, with large numbers of replicates of red flour beetle populations (Tribolium castaneum). We determined that population crashes are caused by an interaction between stochasticity and successive episodes of density dependence: demographic stochasticity in oviposition rates occasionally produces a high density of eggs; so high that there are insufficient flour resources for subsequent larvae. This mechanism can explain unexpected population crashes in more general settings: stochasticity 'pushes' population into a regime where density dependence is severely overcompensatory. The interaction between nonlinearity and stochasticity also produces chaotic population dynamics and a double‐humped one‐generation population map, suggesting further possibilities for unexpected behaviour in a range of systems. We discuss the generality of our proposed mechanism, which could potentially account for previously inexplicable population crashes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The daunting complexity of ecosystems has led ecologists to use mathematical modelling to gain understanding of ecological relationships, processes and dynamics. In pursuit of mathematical tractability, these models use simplified descriptions of key patterns, processes and relationships observed in nature. In contrast, ecological data are often complex, scale-dependent, space-time correlated, and governed by nonlinear relations between organisms and their environment. This disparity in complexity between ecosystem models and data has created a large gap in ecology between model and data-driven approaches. Here, we explore data assimilation (DA) with the Ensemble Kalman filter to fuse a two-predator-two-prey model with abundance data from a 2600+ day experiment of a plankton community. We analyse how frequently we must assimilate measured abundances to predict accurately population dynamics, and benchmark our population model's forecast horizon against a simple null model. Results demonstrate that DA enhances the predictability and forecast horizon of complex community dynamics.

The dynamics of cyclic populations distributed in space result from the relative strength of synchronising influences and the limited dispersal of destabilising factors (activators and inhibitors), known to cause multi‐annual population cycles. However, while each of these have been well studied in isolation, there is limited empirical evidence of how the processes of synchronisation and activation–inhibition act together, largely owing to the scarcity of datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal scale and resolution. We assessed a variety of models that could be underlying the spatio‐temporal pattern, designed to capture both theoretical and empirical understandings of travelling waves using large‐scale (>35,000 km2), multi‐year (2011–2017) field monitoring data on abundances of common vole (Microtus arvalis), a cyclic agricultural rodent pest. We found most support for a pattern formed from the summation of two radial travelling waves with contrasting speeds that together describe population growth rates across the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial synchrony is a ubiquitous and important feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of this phenomenon are not well understood. In particular, it is largely unknown how multiple environmental drivers interact to determine synchrony via Moran effects, and how these impacts vary across spatial and temporal scales. Using new wavelet statistical techniques, we characterised synchrony in populations of giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a widely distributed marine foundation species, and related synchrony to variation in oceanographic conditions across 33 years (1987–2019) and >900 km of coastline in California, USA. We discovered that disturbance (storm‐driven waves) and resources (seawater nutrients)—underpinned by climatic variability—act individually and interactively to produce synchrony in giant kelp across geography and timescales. Our findings demonstrate that understanding and predicting synchrony, and thus the regional stability of populations, relies on resolving the synergistic and antagonistic Moran effects of multiple environmental drivers acting on different timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kelp habitat restoration is gaining traction as a management action to support recovery in areas affected by severe disturbances, thereby ensuring the sustainability of ecosystem services. Knowing when and where to restore is a major question. Using a single‐species population model, we consider how restoring inside marine protected areas (MPAs) might benefit coastal fish populations and fisheries. We found that MPAs can greatly enhance the population benefits of restoration but at a small cost to fishery yields. Generally, restoring inside MPAs had a better overall gains‐loss outcome, especially if the system is under high fishing pressure or severe habitat loss. However, restoring outside became preferable when predatory fish indirectly benefit kelp habitats. In either case, successful restoration actions may be difficult to detect in time‐series data due to complex transient dynamics. We provide context for setting management goals and social expectations for the ecosystem service implications of restoration in MPAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trophic interaction modifications (TIM) are widespread in natural systems and occur when a third species indirectly alters the strength of a trophic interaction. Past studies have focused on documenting the existence and magnitude of TIMs; however, the underlying processes and long-term consequences remain elusive. To address this gap, we experimentally quantified the density-dependent effect of a third species on a predator's functional response. We conducted short-term experiments with ciliate communities composed of a predator, prey and non-consumable 'modifier' species. In both communities, increasing modifier density weakened the trophic interaction strength, due to a negative effect on the predator's space clearance rate. Simulated long-term dynamics indicate quantitative differences between models that account for TIMs or include only pairwise interactions. Our study demonstrates that TIMs are important to understand and predict community dynamics and highlights the need to move beyond focal species pairs to understand the consequences of species interactions in communities., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Ecological communities are inherently dynamic: species constantly turn over within years, months, weeks or even days. These temporal shifts in community composition determine essential aspects of species interactions and how energy, nutrients, information, diseases and perturbations 'flow' through systems. Yet, our understanding of community structure has relied heavily on static analyses not designed to capture critical features of this dynamic temporal dimension of communities. Here, we propose a conceptual and methodological framework for quantifying and analysing this temporal dimension. Conceptually, we split the temporal structure into two definitive features, sequence and duration, and review how they are linked to key concepts in ecology. We then outline how we can capture these definitive features using perspectives and tools from temporal graph theory. We demonstrate how we can easily integrate ongoing research on phenology into this framework and highlight what new opportunities arise from this approach to answer fundamental questions in community ecology. As climate change reshuffles ecological communities worldwide, quantifying the temporal organization of communities is imperative to resolve the fundamental processes that shape natural ecosystems and predict how these systems may change in the future., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Rapid evolution of increased dispersal at the edge of a range expansion can accelerate invasions. However, populations expanding across environmental gradients often face challenging environments that reduce fitness of dispersing individuals. We used an eco-evolutionary model to explore how environmental gradients influence dispersal evolution and, in turn, modulate the speed and predictability of invasion. Environmental gradients opposed evolution of increased dispersal during invasion, even leading to evolution of reduced dispersal along steeper gradients. Counterintuitively, reduced dispersal could allow for faster expansion by minimizing maladaptive gene flow and facilitating adaptation. While dispersal evolution across homogenous landscapes increased both the mean and variance of expansion speed, these increases were greatly dampened by environmental gradients. We illustrate our model's potential application to prediction and management of invasions by parameterizing it with data from a recent invertebrate range expansion. Overall, we find that environmental gradients strongly modulate the effect of dispersal evolution on invasion trajectories., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Studies of oscillatory populations have a long history in ecology. A first‐principles understanding of these dynamics can provide insights into causes of population regulation and help with selecting detailed predictive models. A particularly difficult challenge is determining the relative role of deterministic versus stochastic forces in producing oscillations. We employ statistical physics concepts, including measures of spatial synchrony, that incorporate patterns at all scales and are novel to ecology, to show that spatial patterns can, under broad and well‐defined circumstances, elucidate drivers of population dynamics. We find that when neighbours are coupled (e.g. by dispersal), noisy intrinsic oscillations become distinguishable from noise‐induced oscillations at a transition point related to synchronisation that is distinct from the deterministic bifurcation point. We derive this transition point and show that it diverges from the deterministic bifurcation point as stochasticity increases. The concept of universality suggests that the results are robust and widely applicable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A popular idea in ecology is that trait variation among individuals from the same species may promote the coexistence of competing species. However, theoretical and empirical tests of this idea have yielded inconsistent findings. We manipulated intraspecific trait diversity in a ciliate competing with a nematode for bacterial prey in experimental microcosms. We found that intraspecific trait variation inverted the original competitive hierarchy to favour the consumer with variable traits, ultimately resulting in competitive exclusion. This competitive outcome was driven by foraging traits (size, speed and directionality) that increased the ciliate's fitness ratio and niche overlap with the nematode. The interplay between consumer trait variation and competition resulted in non‐additive cascading effects—mediated through prey defence traits—on prey community assembly. Our results suggest that predicting consumer competitive population dynamics and the assembly of prey communities will require understanding the complexities of trait variation within consumer species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mutation supply can influence evolutionary and thereby ecological dynamics in important ways which have received little attention. Mutation supply influences features of population genetics, such as the pool of adaptive mutations, evolutionary pathways and importance of processes, such as clonal interference. The resultant trait evolutionary dynamics, in turn, can alter population size and species interactions. However, controlled experiments testing for the importance of mutation supply on rapid adaptation and thereby population and community dynamics have primarily been restricted to the first of these aspects. To close this knowledge gap, we performed a serial passage experiment with wild‐type Pseudomonas fluorescens and a mutant with reduced mutation rate. Bacteria were grown at two resource levels in combination with the presence of a ciliate predator. A higher mutation supply enabled faster adaptation to the low‐resource environment and anti‐predatory defence. This was associated with higher population size at the ecological level and better access to high‐recurrence mutational targets at the genomic level with higher mutation supply. In contrast, mutation rate did not affect growth under high‐resource level. Our results demonstrate that intrinsic mutation rate influences population dynamics and trait evolution particularly when population size is constrained by extrinsic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goals of ecosystem-based management (EBM) include protecting ecological resilience, the magnitude of a perturbation that a community can withstand and remain in a given state. As a tool to achieve this goal, no-take marine reserves may enhance resilience by protecting source populations or reduce it by concentrating fishing in harvested areas. Here, we test whether spatial management with marine reserves can increase ecological resilience compared to non-spatial (conventional) management using a dynamic model of a simplified fish community with structured predation and competition that causes alternative stable states. Relative to non-spatial management, reserves increase the resilience of the desired (predator-dominated) equilibrium state in both stochastic and deterministic environments, especially under intensive fishing. As a result, spatial management also increases the feasibility of restoring degraded (competitor-dominated) systems, particularly if combined with culling of competitors or stock enhancement of adult predators.

The familial structure of a population and the relatedness of its individuals are determined by its demography. There is, however, no general method to infer kinship directly from the life cycle of a structured population. Yet, this question is central to fields such as ecology, evolution and conservation, especially in contexts where there is a strong interdependence between familial structure and population dynamics. Here, we give a general formula to compute, from any matrix population model, the expected number of arbitrary kin (sisters, nieces, cousins, etc) of a focal individual ego, structured by the class of ego and of its kin. Central to our approach are classic but little‐used tools known as genealogical matrices. Our method can be used to obtain both individual‐based and population‐wide metrics of kinship, as we illustrate. It also makes it possible to analyse the sensitivity of the kinship structure to the traits implemented in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting complex species‐environment interactions is crucial for guiding conservation and mitigation strategies in a dynamically changing world. Phenotypic plasticity is a mechanism of trait variation that determines how individuals and populations adapt to changing and novel environments. For individuals, the effects of phenotypic plasticity can be quantified by measuring environment–trait relationships, but it is often difficult to predict how phenotypic plasticity affects populations. The assumption that environment–trait relationships validated for individuals indicate how populations respond to environmental change is commonly made without sufficient justification. Here we derive a novel general mathematical framework linking trait variation due to phenotypic plasticity to population dynamics. Applying the framework to the classical example of Nicholson's blowflies, we show how seemingly sensible predictions made from environment–trait relationships do not generalise to population responses. As a consequence, trait‐based analyses that do not incorporate population feedbacks risk mischaracterising the effect of environmental change on populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Novel pathogen introduction can have drastic consequences for naive host populations, and outcomes can be difficult to predict. Evolutionary rescue (ER) provides a foundation for understanding whether hosts are driven to extinction or survive via adaptation. Currently, patterns of host population dynamics alongside evidence of adaptation are used to infer ER. However, the gap between established ER theory and complexity inherent in natural systems makes interpreting empirical patterns difficult because they can be confounded with ecological drivers of survival under current theory. To bridge this gap, we expand ER theory to include biological selective agents, such as pathogens. We find birth processes to be more important than previously theorised in determining ER potential. We employ a novel framework evaluating ER potential within natural systems and gain ability to identify system characteristics that make ER possible. Identifying these characteristics allows a shift from retrospective observation to a predictive mindset, and our findings suggest that ER occurrence may be more limited than previously thought. We use the plague system of Yersinia pestis infecting Cynomys ludovicianus (black‐tailed prairie dogs) and Spermophilus beecheyi (California ground squirrels) as a case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among‐individual variation in vital rates, such as mortality and birth rates, exists in nearly all populations. Recent studies suggest that this individual heterogeneity produces substantial life‐history and fitness differences among individuals, which in turn scale up to influence population dynamics. However, our ability to understand the consequences of individual heterogeneity is limited by inconsistencies across conceptual frameworks in the field. Studies of individual heterogeneity remain filled with contradicting and ambiguous terminology that introduces risks of misunderstandings, conflicting models and unreliable conclusions. Here, we synthesise the existing literature into a single and comparatively straightforward framework with explicit terminology and definitions. This work introduces a distinction between potential vital rates and realised vital rates to develop a coherent framework that maps directly onto mathematical models of individual heterogeneity. We suggest the terms "fixed condition" and "dynamic condition" be used to distinguish potential vital rates that are permanent from those that can change throughout an individual's life. To illustrate, we connect the framework to quantitative genetics models and to common classes of statistical models used to infer individual heterogeneity. We also develop a population projection matrix model that provides an example of how our definitions are translated into precise quantitative terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite much recent progress, our understanding of diversity–stability relationships across different study systems remains incomplete. In particular, recent theory clarified that within‐species population stability and among‐species asynchronous population dynamics combine to determine ecosystem temporal stability, but their relative importance in modulating diversity‐ecosystem temporal stability relationships in different ecosystems remains unclear. We addressed this issue with a meta‐analysis of empirical studies of ecosystem and population temporal stability in relation to species diversity across a range of taxa and ecosystems. We show that ecosystem temporal stability tended to increase with species diversity, regardless of study systems. Increasing diversity promoted asynchrony, which, in turn, contributed to increased ecosystem stability. The positive diversity–ecosystem stability relationship persisted even after accounting for the influences of environmental covariates (e.g., precipitation and nutrient input). By contrast, species diversity tended to reduce population temporal stability in terrestrial systems but increase population temporal stability in aquatic systems, suggesting that asynchronous dynamics among species are essential for stabilizing diverse terrestrial ecosystems. We conclude that there is compelling empirical evidence for a general positive relationship between species diversity and ecosystem‐level temporal stability, but the contrasting diversity–population temporal stability relationships between terrestrial and aquatic systems call for more investigations into their underlying mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most ecological models are based on the assumption that species interact in pairs. Diverse communities, however, can have higher-order interactions, in which two or more species jointly impact the growth of a third species. A pitfall of the common pairwise approach is that it misses the higher-order interactions potentially responsible for maintaining natural diversity. Here, we explore the stability properties of systems where higher-order interactions guarantee that a specified set of abundances is a feasible equilibrium of the dynamics. Even these higher-order interactions which lead to equilibria do not necessarily produce stable coexistence. Instead, these systems are more likely to be stable when the pairwise interactions are weak or facilitative. Correlations between the pairwise and higher-order interactions, however, do permit robust coexistence even in diverse systems. Our work not only reveals the challenges in generating stable coexistence through higher-order interactions but also uncovers interaction patterns that can enable diversity., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change threatens many species by a poleward/upward movement of their thermal niche. While we know that faster movement has stronger impacts, little is known on how fluctuations of niche movement affect population outcomes. Environmental fluctuations often affect populations negatively, but theory and experiments have revealed some positive effects. We study how fluctuations around the average speed of the niche impact a species' persistence, abundance and realized niche width under climate change. We find that the outcome depends on how fluctuations manifest and what the relative time scale of population growth and climate fluctuations are. When populations are close to extinction with the average speed, fluctuations around this average accelerate population decline. However, populations not yet close to extinction can increase in abundance and/or realized niche width from such fluctuations. Long-lived species increase more when their niche size remains constant, short-lived species increase more when their niche size varies., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

When plants die, neighbours escape competition. Living conspecifics could disproportionately benefit because they are freed from negative intraspecific processes; however, if the negative effects of past conspecific neighbours persist, other species might be advantaged, and diversity might be maintained through legacy effects. We examined legacy effects in a mapped forest by modelling the survival of 37,212 trees of 23 species using four neighbourhood properties: living conspecific, living heterospecific, legacy conspecific (dead conspecifics) and legacy heterospecific densities. Legacy conspecific effects proved nearly four times stronger than living conspecific effects; changes in annual survival associated with legacy conspecific density were 1.5% greater than living conspecific effects. Over 90% of species were negatively impacted by legacy conspecific density, compared to 47% by living conspecific density. Our results emphasize that legacies of trees alter community dynamics, revealing that prior research may have underestimated the strength of density dependent interactions by not considering legacy effects., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Recent proliferation of GPS technology has transformed animal movement research. Yet, time-series data from this recent technology rarely span beyond a decade, constraining longitudinal research. Long-term field sites hold valuable historic animal location records, including hand-drawn maps and semantic descriptions. Here, we introduce a generalised workflow for converting such records into reliable location data to estimate home ranges, using 30 years of sleep-site data from 11 white-faced capuchin (Cebus imitator) groups in Costa Rica. Our findings illustrate that historic sleep locations can reliably recover home range size and geometry. We showcase the opportunity our approach presents to resolve open questions that can only be addressed with very long-term data, examining how home ranges are affected by climate cycles and demographic change. We urge researchers to translate historical records into usable movement data before this knowledge is lost; it is essential to understanding how animals are responding to our changing world., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Birds exhibit a remarkable array of seasonal migrations. Despite much research describing migratory behaviour, the underlying forces driving how a species' breeding and wintering populations redistribute each year, that is, migratory connectivity, remain largely unknown. Here, we test the hypothesis that birds migrate in a way that minimises energy expenditure while considering intraspecific competition for energy acquisition, by developing a modelling framework that simulates an optimal redistribution of individuals between breeding and wintering areas. Using 25 species across the Americas, we find that the model accurately predicts empirical migration patterns, and thus offers a general explanation for migratory connectivity based on first ecological and energetic principles. Our model provides a strong basis for exploring additional processes underlying the ecology and evolution of migration, but also a framework for predicting how migration impacts local adaptation across seasons and how environmental change may affect population dynamics in migratory species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chemical pesticides remain the main agents for control of arthropod crop pests despite increased concern for their side effects. Although chemical pesticide applications generally result in short‐term decreases of pest densities, densities can subsequently resurge to higher levels than before. Thus, pesticide effects on pest densities beyond a single pest generation may vary, but they have not been reviewed in a systematic manner. Using mathematical predator–prey models, we show that pest resurgence is expected when effective natural enemies are present, even when they are less sensitive to pesticides than the pest. Model simulations over multiple pest generations predict that pest resurgence due to pesticide applications will increase average pest densities throughout a growing season when effective natural enemies are present. We tested this prediction with a meta‐analysis of published data of field experiments that compared effects of chemical control of arthropod plant pests in the presence and absence of natural enemies. This largely confirmed our prediction: overall, pesticide applications did not reduce pest densities significantly when natural enemies were present, which concerned the vast majority of cases. We also show that long‐term pesticide effectiveness is underreported and suggest that pest control by natural enemies deserves more attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals often change their behaviour in the presence of other species and the environmental context they experience, and these changes can substantially modify the course their populations follow. In the case of animals involved in mutualistic interactions, it is still unclear how to incorporate the effects of these behavioural changes into population dynamics. We propose a framework for using pollinator functional responses to examine the roles of pollinator–pollinator interactions and abiotic conditions in altering the times between floral visits of a focal pollinator. We then apply this framework to a unique foraging experiment with different models that allow resource availability and sublethal exposure to a neonicotinoid pesticide to modify how pollinators forage alone and with co‐foragers. We found that all co‐foragers interfere with the focal pollinator under at least one set of abiotic conditions; for most species, interference was strongest at higher levels of resource availability and with pesticide exposure. Overall our results highlight that density‐dependent responses are often context‐dependent themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between endogenous dynamics and exogenous environmental variation is central to population dynamics. Although investigations into the effects of changing mean climate are widespread, changing patterns of variation in environmental forcing also affect dynamics in complex ways. Using wavelet and time series analyses, we identify a regime shift in the dynamics of a moth species in California from shorter to longer period oscillations over a 34‐year census, and contemporaneous changes in regional precipitation dynamics. Simulations support the hypothesis that shifting precipitation dynamics drove changes in moth dynamics, possibly due to stochastic resonance with delayed density‐dependence. The observed shift in climate dynamics and the interaction with endogenous dynamics mean that predicting future population dynamics will require information on both climatic shifts and their interaction with endogenous density‐dependence, a combination that is rarely available. Consequently, models based on historical data may be unable to predict future population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary‐ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth—underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we review and extend the equal fitness paradigm (EFP) as an important step in developing and testing a synthetic theory of ecology and evolution based on energy and metabolism. The EFP states that all organisms are equally fit at steady state, because they allocate the same quantity of energy, ~ 22.4 kJ/g/generation to the production of offspring. On the one hand, the EFP may seem tautological, because equal fitness is necessary for the origin and persistence of biodiversity. On the other hand, the EFP reflects universal laws of life: how biological metabolism – the uptake, transformation and allocation of energy – links ecological and evolutionary patterns and processes across levels of organisation from: (1) structure and function of individual organisms, (2) life history and dynamics of populations, and (3) interactions and coevolution of species in ecosystems. The physics and biology of metabolism have facilitated the evolution of millions of species with idiosyncratic anatomy, physiology, behaviour and ecology but also with many shared traits and tradeoffs that reflect the single origin and universal rules of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]