1. Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants
- Author
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Erik Welk, Jens-Christian Svenning, Olivier Broennimann, Anna Mária Csergő, Antoine Guisan, Roberto Salguero-Gómez, Yvonne M. Buckley, Amy L. Angert, Brian J. Enquist, Shaun R. Coutts, Iain Stott, Brian J. McGill, Cyrille Violle, and Gurevitch, J
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Letter ,stress gradient hypothesis ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,RANGE SHIFTS ,Range (biology) ,Species distribution ,DISTRIBUTION MODELS ,01 natural sciences ,population dynamics ,Climate change ,TRANSIENT DYNAMICS ,education.field_of_study ,POPULATION-GROWTH ,Ecology ,NICHE ,COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database ,Plants ,EXTINCTION ,ABUNDANCE ,C180 Ecology ,species interactions–abiotic stress hypothesis ,Climate Change ,species interactions-abiotic stress hypothesis ,Population ,ecological niche models ,C170 Population Biology ,Biology ,010603 evolutionary biology ,demographic compensation ,matrix population models ,spatial demography ,species distribution models ,Population growth ,Letters ,education ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Demography ,C150 Environmental Biology ,Extinction ,Resistance (ecology) ,MATRIX MODELS ,SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ,15. Life on land ,COMPENSATION ,13. Climate action ,Matrix population models - Abstract
Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species’ occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide – as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk – was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species’ climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable.
- Published
- 2017