Search

Abstract Understanding how past and current environmental conditions shape the demographic and genetic distributions of organisms facilitates our predictions of how future environmental patterns may affect populations. The Canyon Rubyspot damselfly (Odonata: Zygoptera: Hetaerina vulnerata) is an insect with a range distribution from Colombia to the arid southwestern United States, where it inhabits shaded mountain streams in the arid southwestern United States. Past spatial fragmentation of habitat and limited dispersal capacity of H. vulnerata may cause population isolation and genetic differentiation, and projected climate change may exacerbate isolation by further restricting the species' distribution. We constructed species distribution models (SDMs) based on occurrences of H. vulnerata and environmental variables characterizing the species' niche. We inferred seven current potential population clusters isolated by unsuitable habitat. Paleoclimate models indicated habitat contiguity in past conditions; projected models indicated some habitat fragmentation in future scenarios. Seventy‐eight H. vulnerata individuals from six of the current clusters were sequenced via ddRADseq and processed with Stacks. Principal components and phylogeographic analyses resolved three subpopulations; Structure resolved four subpopulations. FST values were low (0.15 for populations separated by expanses of unsuitable habitat. Isolation by distance was an existing but weak factor in determining genomic structure; isolation by environment and the intervening landscape explained a significant proportion of genetic distance. Hetaerina vulnerata populations were shown to be isolated by a lack of tree canopy coverage, an important habitat predictor for oviposition and territoriality. Thus, H. vulnerata populations are likely separated and are genetically isolated. Integrating SDMs with landscape genetics allowed us to identify populations separated by distance and unsuitable habitat, explaining population genetic patterns and probable fates for populations under future climate scenarios.

Abstract Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p