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According to Gloger's rule, animal colouration is expected to be darker in wetter and warmer climates. Such environmental clines are predicted to occur in colour polymorphic species and to be shaped by selection if colour morphs represent adaptations to different environments. We studied if the distribution of the colour polymorphic tawny owl (Strix aluco) morphs (a pheomelanic brown and a pale grey) across Europe follow the predictions of Gloger's rule and if there is a temporal change in the geographical patterns corresponding to regional variations in climate change. We used data on tawny owl museum skin specimen collections. First, we investigated long‐term spatiotemporal variation in the probability of observing the colour morphs in different climate zones. Second, we studied if the probability of observing the colour morphs was associated with general climatic conditions. Third, we studied if weather fluctuations prior to the finding year of an owl explain colour morph in each climate zone. The brown tawny owl morph was historically more common than the grey morph in every studied climate zone. Over time, the brown morph has become rarer in the temperate and Mediterranean zone, whereas it has first become rarer but then again more common in the boreal zone. Based on general climatic conditions, winter and summer temperatures were positively and negatively associated with the proportion of brown morph, respectively. Winter precipitation was negatively associated with the proportion of brown morph. The effects of 5‐year means of weather on the probability to observe a brown morph differed between climate zones, indicating region‐dependent effect of climate change and weather on tawny owl colouration. To conclude, tawny owl colouration does not explicitly follow Gloger's rule, implying a time and space‐dependent complex system shaped by many factors. We provide novel insights into how the geographic distribution of pheomelanin‐based colour polymorphism is changing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non‐native tree species (NNT) are used in European forestry for many purposes including their growth performance, valuable timber, and resistance to drought and pest or pathogen damage. Yet, cultivating NNT may pose risks to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the provisioning of ecosystem services, and several NNT have been classified as invasive in Europe. Typically, such classifications are based on risk assessments, which do not adequately consider site‐specific variations in impacts of the NNT or the extent of affected areas. Here, we present a new methodological framework that facilitates both mitigating risks associated with NNT and taking advantage of their ecosystem services. The framework is based on a stratified assessment of risks posed by NNT which distinguishes between different sites and considers effectiveness of available management strategies to control negative effects. The method can be applied to NNT that already occur in a given area or those NNT that may establish in future. The framework consists of eight steps and is partly based on existing knowledge. If adequate site‐specific knowledge on NNT does not yet exist, new evidence on the risks should be obtained, for example, by collecting and analyzing monitoring data or modeling the potential distribution of NNT. However, limitations remain in the application of this method, and we propose several policy and management recommendations which are required to improve the responsible use of NNT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climatic changes throughout the Pleistocene have strongly modified species distributions. We examine how these range shifts have affected the genetic diversity of a montane butterfly species and whether the genetic diversity in the extant populations is threatened by future climate change. Location: Europe. Taxon: Erebia epiphron Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae. Methods: We analyzed mtDNA to map current genetic diversity and differentiation of E. epiphron across Europe to identify population refugia and postglacial range shifts. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) to hindcast distributions over the last 21,000 years to identify source locations of extant populations and to project distributions into the future (2070) to predict potential losses in genetic diversity. Results: We found substantial genetic diversity unique to specific regions within Europe (total number of haplotypes = 31, number of unique haplotypes = 27, Hd = 0.9). Genetic data and SDM hindcasting suggest long‐term separation and survival of discrete populations. Particularly, high rates of unique diversity in postglacially colonized sites in England (Hd = 0.64) suggest this population was colonized from a now extinct cryptic refugium. Under future climate change, SDMs predict loss of climate suitability for E. epiphron, particularly at lower elevations (<1,000 meters above sea level) equating to 1 to 12 unique haplotypes being at risk under climate scenarios projecting 1°C and 2–3°C increases respectfully in global temperature by 2070. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that historical range expansion and retraction processes by a cold‐adapted mountain species caused diversification between populations, resulting in unique genetic diversity which may be at risk if distributions of cold‐adapted species shrink in future. Assisted colonizations of individuals from at‐risk populations into climatically suitable unoccupied habitat might help conserve unique genetic diversity, and translocations into remaining populations might increase their genetic diversity and hence their ability to adapt to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Saline lakes, among the most seriously endangered ecosystems, are threatened due to climate change and human activities. One valuable feature of these environments is that they constitute areas of high biodiversity. Ecologists are, therefore, under great pressure to improve their understanding of the effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on the biodiversity of saline lakes. In this study, a total of 257 samples from 32 soda pans in Central Europe between 2006 and 2015 were examined. The effects of environmental variables and of geographical and limnoecological factors on functional diversity were analyzed. Furthermore, the explanatory power of the trait‐based approach was assessed, and the applicability of the indices for biomonitoring purposes was determined. It was found that low habitat heterogeneity and harsh environments lead to the selection of a small number of suitable traits, and consequently, to a naturally low level of functional diversity. Anthropogenic activities enhance diversity at functional level due to the shift toward freshwater characteristics. On the regional scale, the effects of the region and status (natural, degraded, reconstructed) on diatom functional diversity were significant and more pronounced than that of the environmental and other limnoecological factors. The degree of variance found in functional diversity ascribed to environmental variables is five times greater in the case of the application of a trait‐based approach, than when a taxonomic one is employed in the literature. Each of the tested functional diversity indices was sensitive to the most important environmental variables. Furthermore, these were type‐specific and proved to be more complex indicators than taxonomic metrics. It is possible to suggest four functional diversity indices (FGR, FRic, FDis, and FDiv) which emphasize their independence from substrate and seasonal variations for ecological status assessment and conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological Niche Models ( ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models ( GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi- GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche ( sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways ( RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between- GCM variability was greater than the between- RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi- GCM and multi- RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between- GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]