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Inland waters are among the most threatened biodiversity hotspots. Ponds located in alpine areas are experiencing more rapid and dramatic water temperature increases than any other biome. Despite their prevalence, alpine ponds and their biodiversity responses to climate change have been poorly explored, reflecting their small size and difficult access. To understand the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity, we performed a comprehensive literature review for papers published since 1955. Through analysis of their geographic distribution, environmental features, and biodiversity values, we identified which environmental factors related to climate change would have direct or indirect effects on alpine pond biodiversity. We then synthesized this information to produce a conceptual model of the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity. Increased water temperature, reduced hydroperiod, and loss of connectivity between alpine ponds were the main drivers of biodiversity geographic distribution, leading to predictable changes in spatial patterns of biodiversity. We identified three major research gaps that, if addressed, can guide conservation and restoration strategies for alpine ponds biodiversity in an uncertain future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic fluctuations and geological events since the LGM are believed to have significantly impacted the population size, distribution, and mobility of many species that we observe today. In this paper, we determined the processes driving the phylogeographic structure of the Korean endemic white forsythia by combining the use of genome‐wide SNPs and predicting paleoclimatic habitats during the LGM (21 kya), Early Holocene (10 kya), Mid‐Holocene (6 kya), and Late Holocene (3 kya). Using a maximum of 1897 SNPs retrieved from 124 samples across nine wild populations, five environmental predictors, and the species' natural occurrence records, we aimed to infer the species' demographic history and reconstruct its possible paleodistributions with the use of approximate Bayesian computation and ecological niche models, respectively. Under this integrated framework, we found strong evidence for patterns of range shift and expansion, and population divergence events from the onset of the Holocene, resulting in the formation of its five distinct genetic units. The most highly supported model inferred that after the split of an ancestral population into the southern group and a larger central metapopulation lineage, the latter gave rise to the eastern and northern clusters, before finally dividing into two sub‐central groups. While the use of molecular data allowed us to identify and refine the (phylo)genetic relationships of the species' lineages and populations, the use of ecological data helped us infer a past LGM refugium and the directions of post‐glacial range dynamics. The time frames of these demographic events were shown to be congruent with climatic and geological events that affected the central Korean Peninsula during these periods. These findings gave us a better understanding of the consequences of past spatiotemporal factors that may have resulted in the current fragmented population distribution of this endangered plant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), such as mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses, are increasingly recognized as natural climate solutions. Evaluating the current extent, losses, and gains of BCEs is crucial to estimating greenhouse gas emissions and supporting policymaking. Remote sensing approaches are uniquely suited to assess the factors driving BCEs dynamics and their impacts at various spatial and temporal scales. Here, we explored trends in the application of remote sensing in blue carbon science. We used bibliometric analysis to assess 2193 published papers for changes in research focus over time (1990 – June 2022). Over the past three decades, publications have steadily increased, with an annual growth rate of 16.9%. Most publications focused on mangrove ecosystems and used the optical spaceborne Landsat mission, presumably due to its long‐term, open‐access archives. Recent technologies such as LiDAR, UAVs, and acoustic sensors have enabled fine‐scale mapping and monitoring of BCEs. Dominant research topics were related to mapping and monitoring natural and human impacts on BCEs, estimating vegetation and biophysical parameters, machine and deep learning algorithms, management (including conservation and restoration), and climate research. Based on corresponding author affiliations, 80 countries contributed to the field, with United States (27.2%), China (15.0%), Australia (7.5%), and India (6.0%) holding leading positions. Overall, our results reveal the need to increase research efforts for seagrasses, saltmarshes, and macroalgae, integrate technologies, increase the use of remote sensing to support carbon accounting methodologies and crediting schemes, and strengthen collaboration and resource sharing among countries. Rapid advances in remote sensing technology and decreased image acquisition and processing costs will likely enhance research and management efforts focused on BCEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Acadian Forest Region is a temperate‐boreal transitional zone in eastern North America which provides a unique opportunity for understanding the potential effects of climate change on both forest types. Leaf phenology, the timing of leaf life cycle changes, is an important indicator of the biological effects of climate change, which can be observed with stationary timelapse cameras known as phenocams. Using four growing seasons of observations for the species Acer rubrum (red maple), Betula papyrifera (paper/white birch) and Abies balsamea (balsam fir) from the Acadian Phenocam Network as well as multiple growing season observations from the North American PhenoCam Network we parameterized eight leaf emergence and six leaf senescence models for each species which span a range in process and driver representation. With climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) we simulated future leaf emergence, senescence and season length (senescence minus emergence) for these species at sites within the Acadian Phenocam Network. Model performances were similar across models and leaf emergence model RMSE ranged from about 1 to 2 weeks across species and models, while leaf senescence model RMSE ranged from about 2 to 4 weeks. The simulations suggest that by the late 21st century, leaf senescence may become continuously delayed for boreal species like Betula papyrifera and Abies balsamea, though remain relatively stable for temperate species like Acer rubrum. In contrast, the projected advancement in leaf emergence was similar across boreal and temperate species. This has important implications for carbon uptake, nutrient resorption, ecology and ecotourism for the Acadian Forest Region. More work is needed to improve predictions of leaf phenology for the Acadian Forest Region, especially with respect to senescence. Phenocams have the potential to rapidly advance process‐based model development and predictions of leaf phenology in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sanjiang Plain is the largest marsh distribution area of China, and marshes in this region significantly affect regional carbon cycle and biodiversity protection. The vegetation phenology of marsh significantly affects the energy exchange and carbon cycle in that region. Under the influence of global climatic change, identifying the changes in phenology and their responses to climatic variation in marshes of Sanjiang Plain is essential for predicting the carbon stocks of marsh ecosystem in that region. Using climate and NDVI data, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in the start (SOS), end (EOS), and length (LOS) of vegetation growing season and explored the impacts of climatic variation on vegetation phenology in marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Results showed that the SOS advanced by 0.30 days/a, and EOS delayed by 0.23 days/a, causing LOS to increase significantly (p <.05) by 0.53 days/a over marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Spatially, the large SOS advance and EOS delay resulted in an obvious increasing trend for LOS in northern Sanjiang Plain. The rise of spring and winter temperatures advanced the SOS and increased the LOS, and the rise in temperature in autumn delayed the EOS in marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Our findings highlight the necessity of considering seasonal climatic conditions in simulating marsh vegetation phenology and indicate that the different influences of climatic variation on marsh vegetation phenology in different regions should be fully considered to assess the marsh ecosystem response to climatic change in Sanjiang Plain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of work examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change on ecosystems, typically by using manipulative experiments at a single site or performing meta‐analyses across many independent experiments. However, results from single‐site studies tend to have limited generality. Although meta‐analytic approaches can help overcome this by exploring trends across sites, the inherent limitations in combining disparate datasets from independent approaches remain a major challenge. In this paper, we present a globally distributed experimental network that can be used to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We discuss how natural gradients, experimental approaches, and statistical techniques can be combined to best inform predictions about responses to climate change, and we present a globally distributed experiment that utilizes natural environmental gradients to better understand long‐term community and ecosystem responses to environmental change. The warming and (species) removal in mountains (WaRM) network employs experimental warming and plant species removals at high‐ and low‐elevation sites in a factorial design to examine the combined and relative effects of climatic warming and the loss of dominant species on community structure and ecosystem function, both above‐ and belowground. The experimental design of the network allows for increasingly common statistical approaches to further elucidate the direct and indirect effects of warming. We argue that combining ecological observations and experiments along gradients is a powerful approach to make stronger predictions of how ecosystems will function in a warming world as species are lost, or gained, in local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon footprint of flying overseas to conferences, meetings, and workshops to share and build knowledge has been increasingly questioned over the last two decades, especially in environmental and climate sciences, due to the related colossal carbon emissions. Here, we infer the value of scientific meetings through the number of publications produced either directly or indirectly after attending a scientific conference, symposium, or workshop (i.e., the conference‐related production) and the number of publications produced per meeting (i.e., the conference‐related productivity) as proxies for the academic value of these meetings, and relate them to both the number of meetings attended and the related carbon emissions. We show that conference‐related production and productivity, respectively, increase and decay with the number of meetings attended, and noticeably that the less productive people exhibit the largest carbon footprint. Taken together, our results imply that a twofold decrease in the carbon footprint FCO2 of a given scientist would result in a twofold increase in productivity through a fivefold decrease in the number of meeting attended. In light of these figures, we call for both the implementation of objective and quantitative criteria related to the optimum number of conferences to attend in an effort to maximize scientific productivity while minimizing the related carbon footprint, and the development of a rationale to minimize the carbon emission related to scientific activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptive capacity, one of the three determinants of vulnerability to climate change, is defined as the capacity of species to persist in their current location by coping with novel environmental conditions through acclimation and/or evolution. Although studies have identified indicators of adaptive capacity, few have assessed this capacity in a quantitative way that is comparable across tree species. Yet, such multispecies assessments are needed by forest management and conservation programs to refine vulnerability assessments and to guide the choice of adaptation measures. In this paper, we propose a framework to quantitatively evaluate five key components of tree adaptive capacity to climate change: individual adaptation through phenotypic plasticity, population phenotypic diversity as influenced by genetic diversity, genetic exchange within populations, genetic exchange between populations, and genetic exchange between species. For each component, we define the main mechanisms that underlie adaptive capacity and present associated metrics that can be used as indices. To illustrate the use of this framework, we evaluate the relative adaptive capacity of 26 northeastern North American tree species using values reported in the literature. Our results show adaptive capacity to be highly variable among species and between components of adaptive capacity, such that no one species ranks consistently across all components. On average, the conifer Picea glauca and the broadleaves Acer rubrum and A. saccharinum show the greatest adaptive capacity among the 26 species we documented, whereas the conifers Picea rubens and Thuja occidentalis, and the broadleaf Ostrya virginiana possess the lowest. We discuss limitations that arise when comparing adaptive capacity among species, including poor data availability and comparability issues in metrics derived from different methods or studies. The breadth of data required for such an assessment exemplifies the multidisciplinary nature of adaptive capacity and the necessity of continued cross‐collaboration to better anticipate the impacts of a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater ecosystems in arid regions range from highly fragmented to highly connected, and connectivity has been assumed to be a major factor in the persistence of aquatic biota in arid environments. This review sought to synthesize existing research on genetic estimation of population connectivity in desert freshwaters, identify knowledge gaps, and set priorities for future studies of connectivity in these environments. From an extensive literature search, we synthesized the approaches applied, systems studied, and conclusions about connectivity reached in population genetic research concerning desert freshwater connectivity globally. We restrict our scope to obligate aquatic fauna that disperse largely via freshwaters and exclude those with active aerial dispersal abilities. We examined 92 papers, comprising 133 studies, published from 1987 to 2014. Most described studies of fishes and invertebrates in the deserts of Australia and North America. Connectivity declined with increasing scale, but did not differ significantly among arid regions or taxonomic classes. There were significant differences in connectivity patterns between species with different dispersal abilities, and between spring and riverine habitats at local scales. Population connectivity in desert freshwaters is typically most influenced by the ecology of the species concerned and hydrological connectivity. Most studies did not assess predefined models of connectivity, but described gene flow and/or genetic structure. Climate change and anthropogenic impacts worldwide are likely to increase the incidence and impact of habitat fragmentation in already threatened desert freshwaters. To reduce this risk, biodiversity conservation and environmental management must address connectivity, but often the required information does not exist. Researchers can provide this by explicitly considering the effects of hydrology and species' ecology on connectivity, and incorporating these into connectivity models, which are vital for understanding connectivity in desert freshwaters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science can facilitate in‐depth learning for pupils and students, contribute to scientific research, and permit civic participation. Here, we describe the development of the transnational school‐based citizen science project Phenology of the North Calotte. Its primary goal is to introduce pupils (age 12–15; grades 7–10) in northern Norway, Russia, and Finland to the local and global challenges of climate change resulting in life cycle changes at different trophic and ecosystem levels in their backyards. Partnerships between regional scientists and staff from NIBIO Svanhovd, State nature reserves, national parks, and teachers and pupils from regional schools aim to engage pupils in project‐based learning. The project uses standardized protocols, translated into the different languages of participating schools. The phenological observations are centered around documenting clearly defined life cycle phases (e.g., first appearance of species, flowering, ripening, leaf yellowing, snow fall, and melt). The observations are collected either on paper and are subsequently submitted manually to an open‐source online database or submitted directly via a newly developed mobile app. In the long term, the database is anticipated to contribute to research studying changes in phenology at different trophic levels. In principle, guided school‐based citizen science projects have the potential to contribute to increased environmental awareness and education and thereby to transformative learning at the societal level while contributing to scientific progress of understudied biomes, like the northern taiga and (sub)arctic tundra. However, differences in school systems and funding insecurity for some schools have been major prohibiting factors for long‐term retention of pupils/schools in the program. Project‐based and multidisciplinary learning, although pedagogically desired, has been partially difficult to implement in participating schools, pointing to the need of structural changes in national school curricula and funding schemes as well as continuous offers for training and networking for teachers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding spatial physical habitat selection driven by competition and/or predator-prey interactions of mobile marine species is a fundamental goal of spatial ecology. However, spatial counts or density data for highly mobile animals often (1) include excess zeros, (2) have spatial correlation, and (3) have highly nonlinear relationships with physical habitat variables, which results in the need for complex joint spatial models. In this paper, we test the use of Bayesian hierarchical hurdle and zero-inflated joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), to fit complex joint models to spatial patterns of eight mobile marine species (grey seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, northern gannet, herring, and sandeels). For each joint model, we specified nonlinear smoothed effect of physical habitat covariates and selected either competing species or predator-prey interactions. Out of a range of six ecologically important physical and biologic variables that are predicted to change with climate change and large-scale energy extraction, we identified the most important habitat variables for each species and present the relationships between these bio/physical variables and species distributions. In particular, we found that net primary production played a significant role in determining habitat preferences of all the selected mobile marine species. We have shown that the INLA method is well-suited for modeling spatially correlated data with excessive zeros and is an efficient approach to fit complex joint spatial models with nonlinear effects of covariates. Our approach has demonstrated its ability to define joint habitat selection for both competing and prey-predator species that can be relevant to numerous issues in the management and conservation of mobile marine species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northwestern China has a wealth of endemic species, which has been hypothesized to be affected by the complex paleoclimatic and paleogeographic history during Quaternary. In this paper, we used Gymnocarpos przewalskii as a model to address the evolutionary history and current population genetic structure of species in northwestern China. We employed two chloroplast DNA fragments (rps16 and psbB‐psbI), one nuclear DNA fragment (ITS), and simple sequence repeat (SSRs) to investigate the spatial genetic pattern of G. przewalskii. High genetic diversity (cpDNA: hS = 0.330, hT = 0.866; ITS: hS = 0.458, hT = 0.872) was identified in almost all populations, and most of the population have private haplotypes. Moreover, multimodal mismatch distributions were observed and estimates of Tajima's D and Fu's FS tests did not identify significantly departures from neutrality, indicating that recent expansion of G. przewalskii was rejected. Thus, we inferred that G. przewalskii survived generally in northwestern China during the Pleistocene. All data together support the genotypes of G. przewalskii into three groups, consistent with their respective geographical distributions in the western regions—Tarim Basin, the central regions—Hami Basin and Hexi Corridor, and the eastern regions—Alxa Desert and Wulate Prairie. Divergence among most lineages of G. przewalskii occurred in the Pleistocene, and the range of potential distributions is associated with glacial cycles. We concluded that climate oscillation during Pleistocene significantly affected the distribution of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow‐throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic histories are frequently a product of the environment, as populations expand or contract in response to major environmental changes, often driven by changes in climate. Meso‐ and bathy‐pelagic fishes inhabit some of the most temporally and spatially stable habitats on the planet. The stability of the deep‐pelagic could make deep‐pelagic fishes resistant to the demographic instability commonly reported in fish species inhabiting other marine habitats, however the demographic histories of deep‐pelagic fishes are unknown. We reconstructed the historical demography of 11 species of deep‐pelagic fishes using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data. We uncovered widespread evidence of population expansions in our study species, a counterintuitive result based on the nature of deep‐pelagic ecosystems. Frequency‐based methods detected potential demographic changes in nine species of fishes, while extended Bayesian skyline plots identified population expansions in four species. These results suggest that despite the relatively stable nature of the deep‐pelagic environment, the fishes that reside here have likely been impacted by past changes in climate. Further investigation is necessary to better understand how deep‐pelagic fishes, by far Earth's most abundant vertebrates, will respond to future climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Endemic to the Atlantic Forest in Southeastern Brazil, the critically endangered Buffy‐Headed marmoset (Callithrix flaviceps) is lacking the required attention for effective conservation. We modelled its ecological niche with the main objectives of (1) defining suitable habitat and (2) prioritising areas for conservation and/or restoration. The current geographical range of Callithrix flaviceps in the Atlantic Forest of Southeast Brazil. We used Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling to define current habitat suitability considering four climate and two landscape variables. To identify areas to prioritise for conservation and/or restoration, we predicted future habitat suitability considering the intermediate (RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. Among the variables included to predict current species distribution, tree canopy cover, precipitation seasonality and temperature seasonality were the most important whereas digital elevation model and precipitation during the wettest month were the least important. Callithrix flaviceps was most likely to occur in areas with tree canopy cover >80%, high precipitation seasonality and temperature seasonality between 21 and 23°C. From the future suitability prediction maps, the Caparaó National Park stands out as a likely key area for the preservation of the species. Furthermore, high climatic suitability but low landscape suitability suggests that habitat restoration in 'Serra das Torres' (South of the current distribution area) might be a useful strategy. However, creating ecological corridors on the west side of Caparaó would be necessary to improve connectivity. More surveys within and beyond the current geographical range are required to define more precisely the distribution of the species. Our results support the notion that seasonality is important for Callithrix flaviceps and that as a montane species, it prefers colder environments and higher altitudes. Within both climate change scenarios, Caparaó National Park was predicted to be highly suitable, with a high probability of presence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The anthropogenic impacts on the environment, including deforestation and the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases, have significantly contributed to global climate change that can lead to alterations in ecosystems. In this context, protected areas (PAs) are pillars for biodiversity conservation by being able, for example, to maintain the viability of populations of endangered species. On the other hand, the species range shifts do not follow the limits of PAs, jeopardizing the conservation of these species. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PAs is consistently undermined by impacts stemming from land use, hunting activities, and illegal exploitation, both within the designated areas and in their adjacent zones. The objectives of this study are to quantify the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened and endemic birds of the Amazon biome, evaluate the effectiveness of PAs in protecting the richness of threatened birds, and analyze the representativeness of species within PAs. We found with our results that climate suitability loss is above 80 for 65% of taxa in the optimistic scenario and above 93% in the pessimistic scenario. The results show that PAs are not effective in protecting the richness of Amazonian birds, just as they are ineffective in protecting most of the taxa studied when analyzed individually Although some taxa are presented as "Protected," in future scenarios these taxa may suffer major shrinkages in their distributions and consequently present population unviability. The loss of climatically suitable areas and the effectiveness of PAs can directly influence the loss of ecosystem services, fundamental to maintaining the balance of biodiversity. Therefore, our study paves the way for conservation actions aimed at these taxa so that they can mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding dispersal is central to interpreting the effects of climate change, habitat loss and habitat fragmentation, and species invasions. Prior to dispersal, animals may gather information about the surrounding landscape via forays, or systematic, short‐duration looping movements away from and back to the original location. Despite theory emphasizing that forays can be beneficial for dispersing organisms and that such behaviors are predicted to be common, relatively little is known about forays in wild populations. Theory predicts that individuals that use forays may delay dispersal and such behaviors should increase survival, yet empirical tests of these predictions remain scarce. We tested these predictions in a natural system using the critically endangered snail kite (Rostrhaumus sociabilis), a wetland‐dependent raptor. We GPS tracked 104 snail kites from fledging through emigration from the natal site across their breeding range to understand the demographic consequences of movement. We found that forays were common (82.7% of individuals tracked), and natal habitat played an important role in the initiation, execution, and outcome of foray behavior. The effect of foraying on survival was indirect, where forayers emigrated later than non‐forayers, and individuals that emigrated later had the highest survival. Poor hydrological conditions in the natal environment were especially important for eliciting forays. Finally, females responded more strongly to natal hydrology than males, making more forays and significantly longer, more distant trips. These results emphasize the fundamental role of natal habitat for determining behavioral patterns, strengthen links between individual movement decisions and their demographic consequences, and provide an important behavioral focal point for interpreting movement tracks that would not otherwise be captured by conventional movement models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Common distributional patterns have provided the foundations of our knowledge of Neotropical biogeography. A distinctive pattern is the "circum‐Amazonian distribution", which surrounds Amazonia across the forested lowlands south and east of the basin, the Andean foothills, the Venezuelan Coastal Range, and the Tepuis. The underlying evolutionary and biogeographical mechanisms responsible for this widespread pattern of avian distribution have yet to be elucidated. Here, we test the effects of biogeographical barriers in four species in the passerine family Thamnophilidae by performing comparative demographic analyses of genome‐scale data. Specifically, we used flanking regions of ultraconserved regions to estimate population historical parameters and genealogical trees and tested demographic models reflecting contrasting biogeographical scenarios explaining the circum‐Amazonian distribution. We found that taxa with circum‐Amazonian distribution have at least two main phylogeographical clusters: (1) Andes, often extending into Central America and the Tepuis; and (2) the remaining of their distribution. These clusters are connected through corridors along the Chaco–Cerrado and southeastern Amazonia, allowing gene flow between Andean and eastern South American populations. Demographic histories are consistent with Pleistocene climatic fluctuations having a strong influence on the diversification history of circum‐Amazonian taxa, Refugia played a crucial role, enabling both phenotypic and genetic differentiation, yet maintaining substantial interconnectedness to keep considerable levels of gene flow during different dry/cool and warm/humid periods. Additionally, steep environmental gradients appear to play a critical role in maintaining both genetic and phenotypic structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of global climate change, ecological studies increasingly address effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. Sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements, but our review of 18 years of ecological literature indicates that shielding practices vary across studies (when reported at all), and that ecologists often invent and construct ad hoc radiation shields without testing their efficacy. We performed two field experiments to examine the accuracy of temperature observations from three commonly used portable data loggers ( HOBO Pro, HOBO Pendant, and iButton hygrochron) housed in manufactured Gill shields or ad hoc, custom-fabricated shields constructed from everyday materials such as plastic cups. We installed this sensor array (five replicates of 11 sensor-shield combinations) at weather stations located in open and forested sites. HOBO Pro sensors with Gill shields were the most accurate devices, with a mean absolute error of 0.2°C relative to weather stations at each site. Error in ad hoc shield treatments ranged from 0.8 to 3.0°C, with the largest errors at the open site. We then deployed one replicate of each sensor-shield combination at five sites that varied in the amount of urban impervious surface cover, which presents a further shielding challenge. Bias in sensors paired with ad hoc shields increased by up to 0.7°C for every 10% increase in impervious surface. Our results indicate that, due to variable shielding practices, the ecological literature likely includes highly biased temperature data that cannot be compared directly across studies. If left unaddressed, these errors will hinder efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. We call for greater standardization in how temperature data are recorded in the field, handled in analyses, and reported in publications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a vital driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable area of 12 threatened medicinal plants in the QTP (Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau) under the current and future (2050s, 2070s) three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results showed that the climatically suitable habitats for the threatened medicinal plants were primarily found in the eastern, southeast, southern, and some parts of the central regions on the QTP. Moreover, 25% of the threatened medicinal plants would have reduced suitable habitat areas within the next 30–50 years in the different future global warming scenarios. Among these medicinal plants, RT (Rheum tanguticum) would miss the most habitat (98.97%), while the RAN (Rhododendron anthopogonoides) would miss the least habitat (10.15%). Nevertheless, 33.3% of the threatened medicinal plants showed an increase in their future habitat area because of their physiological characteristics which are more adaptable to a wide range of climates. The climatic suitable habitat for 50% of the threatened medicinal plants would migrate to higher altitudes or higher latitudes regions. This study provides a data foundation for the conservation of biodiversity and wild medicinal plants on the QTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Algal bioindicators, such as diatoms, often show subdued responses to eutrophication in Arctic lakes because climate‐related changes (e.g., ice cover) tend to be the overriding factors influencing assemblage composition. Here, we examined how sub‐Arctic ponds historically receiving high nutrient inputs from nesting seabirds have responded to recent climate change. We present diatom data obtained from 12 sediment cores in seaduck‐affected ponds located on islands through Hudson Strait, Canada. All study cores show consistently elevated values of sedimentary ẟ15N, an established proxy for tracking marine‐derived nutrients, indicating seabirds have been present on these islands for at least the duration of the sediment records (~100 to 400 years). We document diverse epiphytic diatom assemblages to the base of all sediment cores, which is in marked contrast to seabird‐free Arctic ponds—these oligotrophic sites typically record epilithic diatom flora prior to recent warming. Diatoms are likely responding indirectly to seabird nutrients via habitat as nutrients promote the growth of mosses supporting epiphytic diatom communities. This masks the typical diatom response to increased warming in the Arctic, which also results in habitat changes and the growth of mosses around the pond edges. Changes in sedimentary chlorophyll a were not consistently synchronous with large changes in ẟ15N values, suggesting that primary production in ponds is not responding linearly to changes in seabird‐derived nitrogen. Across all ponds, we recorded shifts in diatom epiphytic assemblages (e.g., increases in % relative abundance of many Nitzschia species) that often align with increases in chlorophyll a. The changes in diatoms and chlorophyll a, although variable, are most likely driven by climate change as they are generally consistent with longer ice‐free conditions and growing seasons. Together, our results show that to effectively use diatoms in animal population reconstructions across the sub‐Arctic and Arctic, a strong understanding of eutrophication and climate change, based on supplementary proxies, is also required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change involves increases in mean temperature and changes in temperature variability at multiple temporal scales but research rarely considers these temporal scales. The climate variability hypothesis (CVH) provides a conceptual framework for exploring the potential effects of annual scale thermal variability across climatic zones. The CVH predicts ectotherms in temperate regions tolerate a wider range of temperatures than those in tropical regions in response to greater annual variability in temperate regions. However, various other aspects of thermal regimes (e.g. diel variability), organisms' size and taxonomic identity are also hypothesised to influence thermal tolerance. Indeed, high temperatures in the tropics have been proposed as constraining organisms' ability to tolerate a wide range of temperatures, implying that high annual maximum temperatures would be associated with tolerating a narrow range of temperatures. We measured thermal regimes and critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) of freshwater insects in the orders Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies) along elevation gradients in streams in temperate and tropical regions of eastern Australia and tested the CVH by determining which variables were most correlated with thermal breadth (Tbr = CTmax − CTmin). Consistent with the CVH, Tbr tended to increase with increasing annual temperature range. Tbr also increased with body size and Tbr was generally wider in Plecoptera than in Ephemeroptera or Trichoptera. We also find some support for a related hypothesis, the climate extreme hypothesis (CEH), particularly for predicting upper thermal limits. We found no evidence that higher annual maximum temperature constrained individuals' abilities to tolerate a wide range of temperatures. The support for the CVH we document suggests that temperate organisms may be able to tolerate wider ranges of temperatures than tropical organisms. There is an urgent need to investigate other aspects of thermal regimes, such as diel temperature cycling and minimum temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understory assemblages associated with canopy‐forming species such as trees, kelps, and rockweeds should respond strongly to climate stressors due to strong canopy‐understory interactions. Climate change can directly and indirectly modify these assemblages, particularly during more stressful seasons and climate scenarios. However, fully understanding the seasonal impacts of different climate conditions on canopy‐reliant assemblages is difficult due to a continued emphasis on studying single‐species responses to a single future climate scenario during a single season. To examine these emergent effects, we used mesocosm experiments to expose seaweed assemblages associated with the canopy‐forming golden rockweed, Silvetia compressa, to elevated temperature and pCO2 conditions reflecting two projected greenhouse emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 [low] & RCP 4.5 [moderate]). Assemblages were grown in the presence and absence of Silvetia, and in two seasons. Relative to ambient conditions, predicted climate scenarios generally suppressed Silvetia biomass and photosynthetic efficiency. However, these effects varied seasonally—both future scenarios reduced Silvetia biomass in summer, but only the moderate scenario did so in winter. These reductions shifted the assemblage, with more extreme shifts occurring in summer. Contrarily, future scenarios did not shift assemblages within Silvetia Absent treatments, suggesting that climate primarily affected assemblages indirectly through changes in Silvetia. Mesocosm experiments were coupled with a field Silvetia removal experiment to simulate the effects of climate‐mediated Silvetia loss on natural assemblages. Consistent with the mesocosm experiment, Silvetia loss resulted in season‐specific assemblage shifts, with weaker effects observed in winter. Together, our study supports the hypotheses that climate‐mediated changes to canopy‐forming species can indirectly affect the associated assemblage, and that these effects vary seasonally. Such seasonality is important to consider as it may provide periods of recovery when conditions are less stressful, especially if we can reduce the severity of future climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Desert communities are threatened with species loss due to climate change, and their resistance to such losses is unknown. We constructed a food web of the Mojave Desert terrestrial community (300 nodes, 4080 edges) to empirically examine the potential cascading effects of bird extinctions on this desert network, compared to losses of mammals and lizards. We focused on birds because they are already disappearing from the Mojave, and their relative thermal vulnerabilities are known. We quantified bottom‐up secondary extinctions and evaluated the relative resistance of the community to losses of each vertebrate group. The impact of random bird species loss was relatively low compared to the consequences of mammal (causing the greatest number of cascading losses) or reptile loss, and birds were relatively less likely to be in trophic positions that could drive top‐down effects in apparent competition and tri‐tropic cascade motifs. An avian extinction cascade with year‐long resident birds caused more secondary extinctions than the cascade involving all bird species for randomized ordered extinctions. Notably, we also found that relatively high interconnectivity among avian species has formed a subweb, enhancing network resistance to bird losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Harnessing science‐based policy is key to addressing global challenges like the biodiversity and climate crises. Open research principles underpin effective science‐based policy, but the uptake of these principles is likely constrained by the politicisation, commoditisation and conflicting motives of stakeholders in the research landscape. Here, using the mission and vision statements from 129 stakeholders from across the research landscape, we explore alignment in open research principles between stakeholders. We find poor alignment between stakeholders, largely focussed around journals, societies and funders, all of which have low open research language‐use. We argue that this poor alignment stifles knowledge flow within the research landscape, ultimately limiting the mobilisation of impactful science‐based policy. We offer recommendations on how the research landscape could embrace open research principles to accelerate societies' ability to solve global challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing climate and growing human impacts are resulting in globally rising temperatures and the widespread loss of habitats. How species will adapt to these changes is not well understood. The Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) can be found across the Holarctic but is coming under more intense pressure in many places. Studies of recent populations in Finland and Denmark have shown a marked decline in body size of Northern Goshawks over the past century. Here we investigate long‐term changes to Norwegian populations of Northern Goshawk by including material from the Middle Ages. We measured 240 skeletons of modern Northern Goshawks from Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland, and 89 Medieval Goshawk bones. Our results show that Norwegian and Swedish female Goshawks have decreased in size over the past century, whilst males showed little decline. Medieval female Goshawks were larger than contemporary females. A decline in forest habitats and a concomitant shift towards smaller prey likely drove a shift to smaller body size in Northern Goshawks. Our study shows that significant body size changes in birds can occur over relatively short time spans in response to environmental factors, and that these effects can sometimes differ between sexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces a novel approach to leverage high‐resolution historical climate data and opportunistically collected historical species occurrence data for detecting adaptive responses to global change. We applied this procedure to the temperature data and the most comprehensive Iberian dataset of dung beetle occurrences as an illustrative example. To understand how populations of different species are responding, we devised a procedure that compares the temporal trend of spatial and temperature variables at the locations and times of all the occurrence data collection (overall trend) with the specific temporal trends among the occurrences of each species. The prevalence of various species responses is linked to life history or taxonomic characteristics, enabling the identification of key factors influencing the propensity to experience different effects from climate change. Our findings suggest that nearly half of the Iberian dung beetle species may be adversely affected by temperature increases, with a geographic shift being the most common response. The results generated through the proposed methodology should be regarded as preliminary information, serving to formulate hypotheses about the diverse responses of species to climate change and aiding in the selection of candidate species capable of coping with challenges posed by changing temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this paper is to address consequences of climate warming on loss of habitat and genetic diversity in the enigmatic tropical alpine giant rosette plants using the Ethiopian endemic Lobelia rhynchopetalum as a model. We modeled the habitat suitability of L. rhynchopetalum and assessed how its range is affected under two climate models and four emission scenarios. We used three statistical algorithms calibrated to represent two different complexity levels of the response. We analyzed genetic diversity using amplified fragment length polymorphisms and assessed the impact of the projected range loss. Under all model and scenario combinations and consistent across algorithms and complexity levels, this afro-alpine flagship species faces massive range reduction. Only 3.4% of its habitat seems to remain suitable on average by 2,080, resulting in loss of 82% ( CI 75%-87%) of its genetic diversity. The remaining suitable habitat is projected to be fragmented among and reduced to four mountain peaks, further deteriorating the probability of long-term sustainability of viable populations. Because of the similar morphological and physiological traits developed through convergent evolution by tropical alpine giant rosette plants in response to diurnal freeze-thaw cycles, they most likely respond to climate change in a similar way as our study species. We conclude that specialized high-alpine giant rosette plants, such as L. rhynchopetalum, are likely to face very high risk of extinction following climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The more frequent and intense occurrence of heat waves is a challenge for arthropods because their unpredictable incidence requires fast adaptations by the exposed individuals. Phenotypic plasticity within and across generations might be a solution to cope with the detrimental effects of heat waves, especially for fast‐developing, small arthropods with limited dispersal abilities. Therefore, we studied whether severe heat may affect the reproduction of a pest species, the spider mite Tetranychus urticae, and its counterpart, the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. Single offspring females with different parental thermal origins (reared under mild or extreme heat waves) of both species were exposed to mild or extreme heat waves on bean leaves over 10 days, and the oviposition, egg sizes, survival, and escape behavior of the females were evaluated daily. The total losses of predators mainly via escapers were very high compared to prey, which makes a separation between selective and plastic effects on shifted reproductive traits impossible. Predator females laid smaller eggs, while their consumption and oviposition rates were unaffected during extreme heat waves. In comparison, larger prey females fed more and produced more, but smaller, eggs due to within‐ and trans‐generational effects. These advantages for the prey in comparison to its predator when exposed to extreme heat waves during the reproductive phase support the trophic sensitivity hypothesis: higher trophic levels (i.e., the predator) are more sensitive to thermal stress than lower trophic levels (i.e., the prey). Furthermore, the species‐specific responses may reflect their lifestyles. The proactive and mobile predator should be selected for behavioral thermoregulation under heat waves via spatiotemporal avoidance of heat‐exposed locations rather than relying on physiological adaptations in contrast to the more sessile prey. Whether these findings also influence predator–prey interactions and their population dynamics under heat waves remains an open question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body size shifts in ectotherms are mostly attributed to the Temperature Size Rule (TSR) stating that warming speeds up initial growth rate but leads to smaller size when food does not limit growth. Investigating the links between temperature, growth, and life history traits is key to understand the adaptive value of TSR, which might be context dependent. In particular, global warming can affect food quantity or quality which is another major driver of growth, fecundity, and survival. However, we have limited information on how temperature and food jointly influence life history traits in vertebrate predators and how changes in different life history traits combine to influence fitness and population demography. We investigate (1) whether TSR is maintained under different food conditions, (2) if food exacerbates or dampens the effects of temperature on growth and life history traits and (3) if food influences the adaptive value of TSR. We combine experiments on the medaka with Integral Projection Models to scale from life history traits to fitness consequences. Our results confirm that warming triggers a higher initial growth rate and a lower adult size, reduces generation time and increases mean fitness. A lower level of food exacerbates the effects of warming on growth trajectories. Although lower feeding frequency increased survival and decreased fecundity, it did not influence the effects of warming on fish development rates, fecundity, and survival. In contrast, feeding frequency influenced the adaptive value of TSR, as, under intermittent feeding, generation time decreased faster with warming and the increase in growth rate with warming was weaker compared to continuously fed fish. These results are of importance in the context of global warming as resources are expected to change with increasing temperatures but, surprisingly, our results suggest that feeding frequency have a lower impact on fitness at high temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine historical ecology provides a means to establish baselines to inform current fisheries management. Groupers (Epinephelidae) are key species for fisheries in the Mediterranean, which have been heavily overfished. Species abundance and distribution prior to the 20th century in the Mediterranean remains poorly known. To reconstruct the past biogeography of Mediterranean groupers, we investigated whether Zooarchaeology by Mass Spectrometry (ZooMS) can be used for identifying intra‐genus grouper bones to species level. We discovered 22 novel, species‐specific ZooMS biomarkers for groupers. Applying these biomarkers to Kinet Höyük, a Mediterranean archaeological site, demonstrated 4000 years of regional Epinephelus aeneus dominance and resiliency through millennia of fishing pressures, habitat degradation and climatic changes. Combining ZooMS identifications with catch size reconstructions revealed the Epinephelus aeneus capacity for growing 30 cm larger than hitherto documented, revising the maximum Total Length from 120 to 150 cm. Our results provide ecological baselines for a key Mediterranean fishery which could be leveraged to define and assess conservation targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amidst global declines in elasmobranch populations resulting predominantly from overfishing, the need to gather data regarding shark ecology is greater than ever. Many species remain data deficient or at risk of going extinct before sufficient conservation measures can be applied. In this review, we summarise existing knowledge regarding the biology and ecology of the Pacific sharpnose shark Rhizoprionodon longurio (Jordan & Hilbert, 1882), a small‐bodied carcharhinid shark found in coastal waters of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean that is of both commercial and ecological importance. We compare ecological parameters of this species with its closest extant relatives and identify major knowledge gaps and avenues for future research. In particular, additional studies investigating the behavioural and sensory ecology, as well as potential migratory patterns of the species are needed. Such studies will not only improve our understanding of R. longurio, but provide insight into the extent to which the numerous studies performed on a close relative—Rhizoprionodon terraenovae—provide an accurate representation of the biology and ecology of Rhizoprionodon and carcharhinids more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The plants' geographic distribution is affected by natural or human‐induced climate change. Numerous studies at both the global and regional levels currently focus on the potential changes in plant distribution areas. Ecological niche modeling can help predict the likely distribution of species according to environmental variables under different climate scenarios. In this study, we predicted the potential geographic distributions of Quercus ilex L. (holm oak), a keystone species of the Mediterranean ecosystem, for the Last Interglacial period (LIG: ~130 Ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: ~22 Ka), mid‐Holocene (MH: ~6 Ka), and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) for 2050–2070 obtained from CCSM4 and MIROC‐ESM global climate scenarios respectively. The models were produced with algorithms from the R‐package "biomod2" and assessed by AUC of the receiver operating characteristic plot and true skill statistics. Aside from BIOCLIM (SRE), all model algorithms performed similarly and produced projections that are supported by good evaluation scores, although random forest (RF) slightly outperformed all the others. Additionally, distribution maps generated for the past period were validated through a comparison with pollen data acquired from the Neotoma Pollen Database. The results revealed that southern areas of the Mediterranean Basin, particularly coastal regions, served as long‐term refugia for Q. ilex, which was supported by fossil pollen data. Furthermore, the models suggest long‐term refugia role for Anatolia and we argue that Anatolia may have served as a founding population for the species. Future climate scenarios indicated that Q. ilex distribution varied by region, with some areas experiencing range contractions and others range expands. This study provides significant insights into the vulnerability of the Q. ilex to future climate change in the Mediterranean ecosystem and highlights the crucial role of Anatolia in the species' historical distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming and changing precipitation can alter the performance of native grasses that are essential to grassland ecosystems. Native grasses may respond to changing climate by phenotypic plasticity or lose their current ranges. Establishing plant species from southern, warmer provenances may reduce the likelihood of biodiversity loss and improve restoration success in cool, northern locations that are undergoing warming. We conducted competition trials for Pseudoroegneria spicata (bluebunch wheatgrass), a native grass commonly found in western North American grasslands, to understand the impact of temperature and moisture on plant–plant interactions. We obtained seeds from three locations along a latitudinal gradient in North America, two in British Columbia (BC), Canada, and one in California, USA. We compared the effects of warming, changing water inputs, and competitor provenance on pairwise competitive interactions among Pseudoroegneria spicata plants grown from seeds obtained from the three locations. We quantified interactions using the relative interaction intensity, which has values from −1 (complete competition) to +1 (complete facilitation). Target plants from northern British Columbia, the location with the coldest summer temperature, were generally more competitively suppressed when competing with plants from California, which had the warmest summer temperature and lowest summer precipitation. Competitive suppression of target plants from northern British Columbia and southern British Columbia was more intense when competitor provenance was more geographically distant from target plant provenance. Finally, plants from northern British Columbia and southern British Columbia were more suppressed at higher temperatures, indicating some local adaptation, while plants from California were not affected by competitors, temperature, or water input. Plants grown from seeds obtained from warm and dry locations appear to be more tolerant to competition at higher temperatures, compared to plants from cooler regions. Native plant diversity and restoration success in grasslands subjected to climate change may be preserved or improved by assisted migration of seeds from warm to cooler but warming locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leonurus japonicus Houtt. is a traditional Chinese medicinal plant with high medicinal and edible value. Wild L. japonicus resources have reduced dramatically in recent years. This study predicted the response of distribution range of L. japonicus to climate change in China, which provided scientific basis for the conservation and utilization. In this study, 489 occurrence points of L. japonicus were selected based on GIS technology and spThin package. The default parameters of MaxEnt model were adjusted by using ENMeva1 package of R environment, and the optimized MaxEnt model was used to analyze the distribution of L. japonicus. When the feature combination in the model parameters is hing and the regularization multiplier is 1.5, the MaxEnt model has a higher degree of optimization. With the AUC of 0.830, our model showed a good predictive performance. The results showed that L. japonicus were widely distributed in the current period. The maximum temperature of warmest month, the min temperature of coldest month, the precipitation of wettest month, the precipitation of driest month, and altitude were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. japonicus. Under the three climate change scenarios, the suitable distribution area of L. japonicus will range shift to high latitudes, indicating that the distribution of L. japonicus has a strong response to climate change. The regional change rate is the lowest under the SSP126‐2090s scenario and the highest under the SSP585‐2090s scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experimental warming of an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota has caused a rapid decline in the productivity and areal cover of Sphagnum mosses, affecting whole‐ecosystem carbon balance and biogeochemistry. Direct effects of elevated temperature and the attendant drying are most likely the primary cause of the effects on Sphagnum, but there may also be responses to the increased shading from shrubs, which increased with increasing temperature. To evaluate the independent effects of reduction in light availability and deposition of shrub litter on Sphagnum productivity, small plots with shrubs removed were laid out adjacent to the warming experiment on hummocks and hollows in three blocks and with five levels of shading. Four plots were covered with neutral density shade cloth to simulate shading from shrubs of 30%–90% reduction in light; one plot was left open. Growth of Sphagnum angustifolium/fallax and S. divinum declined linearly with increasing shade in hollows, but there was no response to shade on hummocks, where higher irradiance in the open plots may have been inhibitory. Shading caused etiolation of Sphagnum—they were thin and spindly under the deepest shade. A dense mat of shrub litter, corresponding to the amount of shrub litter produced in response to warming, did not inhibit Sphagnum growth or cause increases in potentially toxic base cations. CO2 exchange and chlorophyll‐a fluorescence of S. angustifolium/fallax from the 30% and 90% shade cloth plots were measured in the laboratory. Light response curves indicate that maximal light saturated photosynthesis was 42% greater for S. angustifolium/fallax grown under 30% shade cloth relative to plants grown under 90% shade cloth. The response of Sphagnum growth in response to increasing shade is consistent with the hypothesis that increased shade resulting from shrub expansion in response to experimental warming contributed to reduced Sphagnum growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid pace of contemporary environmental change puts many species at risk, especially rare species constrained by limited capacity to adapt or migrate due to low genetic diversity and/or fitness. But the ability to acclimate can provide another way to persist through change. We compared the capacity of rare Boechera perstellata (Braun's rockcress) and widespread B. laevigata to acclimate to change. We investigated the phenotypic plasticity of growth, biomass allocation, and leaf morphology of individuals of B. perstellata and B. laevigata propagated from seed collected from several populations throughout their ranges in a growth chamber experiment to assess their capacity to acclimate. Concurrently, we assessed the genetic diversity of sampled populations using 17 microsatellite loci to assess evolutionary potential. Plasticity was limited in both rare B. perstellata and widespread B. laevigata, but differences in the plasticity of root traits between species suggest that B. perstellata may have less capacity to acclimate to change. In contrast to its widespread congener, B. perstellata exhibited no plasticity in response to temperature and weaker plastic responses to water availability. As expected, B. perstellata also had lower levels of observed heterozygosity than B. laevigata at the species level, but population‐level trends in diversity measures were inconsistent due to high heterogeneity among B. laevigata populations. Overall, the ability of phenotypic plasticity to broadly explain the rarity of B. perstellata versus commonness of B. laevigata is limited. However, some contextual aspects of our plasticity findings compared with its relatively low genetic variability may shed light on the narrow range and habitat associations of B. perstellata and suggest its vulnerability to climate warming due to acclimatory and evolutionary constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a major factor affecting biodiversity and species distribution, particularly of montane species. Species may respond to climate change by shifting their range to higher elevations. The southeastern Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Hengduan Mountains are considered as global biodiversity hotspots. However, information on the response of maple species to climate change in these regions was limited. Therefore, we selected two maple species that occur there and assessed changes in their habitat suitability under past, present and future climate scenarios in Biomod2. The results showed that temperature seasonality (bio4) was the most critical factor influencing their potential distributions. The distribution of potentially suitable habitat for Acer caesium and Acer stachyophyllum was predicted to be larger during the LGM compared to the present. Under the current climate scenario, the largest areas of potentially suitable habitat for these species were mainly located in southeastern Tibet, the Hengduan Mountains in northwestern Yunnan and western Sichuan, the Qinling‐Daba Mountains in southern Gansu and the Wumeng‐Daliang Mountains in northeastern Yunnan, western Guizhou and southeastern Sichuan. Under future climate change scenarios, the predicted loss of suitable habitat areas for these two species ranged from 13.78% to 45.71% and the increase ranged from 18.88% to 57.98%, with an overall increasing trend. The suitable habitat areas were predicted to shift towards the eastern parts of the QTP under both the pessimistic and optimistic future climate change scenarios in the 2050s and the 2070s, which became evident as global warming intensified, particularly in the eastern QTP and the Hengduan Mountains. Our results highlight the possibility that the diverse topography along altitudinal gradients in the QTP and the Hengduan Mountains may potentially mitigate the range contraction of mountain plants in response to climate warming. These findings provide a basis for planning conservation areas, planting and species conservation in the mountainous areas of southern China under the anticipated global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the effect of the environment on trait variation is critical for ecologically and economically important plants. Here, we asked whether differences in soil moisture are a source of variation in Sahara mustard (Brassica tournefortii). We subjected common garden populations of plants derived from native, invasive, and landrace sources (ranges) to varying water addition treatments. Using principal component analysis, we generated composite variables of life history traits for ANCOVA tests and plotted norms of reaction. Planting time was included as a covariate because we observed differences in seedling emergence despite efforts to standardize germination. We also examined the population coefficient of variation of individual traits (plasticity) and the association of trait CVs with fitness. The amount of plasticity varied but was inconsistent among range sources for all composite traits. Planting time did not affect treatments, but plants from different ranges responded differently to variable planting times. With a surplus of water, plants derived from native and invasive populations plateaued in vegetative trait values but showed a continuous linear increase in reproductive trait values. Possibly as a result of domestication, moderate and high water treatments in landrace plants caused plateaus in composite trait values for flowering phenology, seed count, plant size, and branching. The ecological breadth shown by our plants is likely due to drought tolerance that evolved in Brassica tournefortii source populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands in Arctic tundra support abundant breeding waterbirds. Wetland types differing in area, depth, vegetation, and invertebrate biomass density may vary in importance to birds, and in vulnerability to climate change. We studied availability and use of different wetland types by prelaying females of four species of sea ducks (Mergini) breeding on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska, USA: long‐tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) and Steller's (Polysticta stelleri), spectacled (Somateria fischeri), and king eiders (Somateria spectabilis). All four species preferred shallow vegetated wetlands versus deeper lakes. The ducks spent almost all their active time feeding, but their occurrence in different wetland types was not affected by the relative biomass density of known prey or of all invertebrates that we sampled combined. Sea ducks strongly preferred wetlands dominated by emergent and submersed Arctophila fulva over those dominated by the sedge Carex aquatilis, despite the much greater number, total area, and invertebrate biomass density of Carex wetlands. The hens depend heavily on local invertebrate prey for protein to produce eggs; thus, their preference for Arctophila wetlands likely reflects greater accessibility of prey in the near‐surface canopy and detritus of Arctophila. Such shallow wetlands decreased substantially in number (−17%) and area (−30%) over 62 years before 2013 and appear highly susceptible to further declines with climate warming. Impacts on sea ducks of climate‐driven changes in availability of important wetland types will depend on their adaptability in exploiting alternative wetlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

College and university biology majors who are not climate change deniers may yet be unaware of the degree of scientific consensus on climate change and unprepared to communicate about climate science to others. This study reports on a population of climate change accepting biology majors at a large, private research university in the American northeast. Our students tended to greatly underestimate the degree of scientific consensus around climate change, to be only moderately worried about climate change, and to be unconfident in their ability to communicate about the state of the scientific consensus around climate change. After an introduction to the scholarly literature that substantiates and quantifies the scientific consensus on climate change in the context of a course on biological research literature, our students showed significant increases in their estimates of the consensus on climate change, and their estimates were more accurate. Additionally, they became more worried about climate change as well as more confident in their ability to communicate about the scientific consensus to others. These results are in line with the Gateway Belief Model, which positions perception of scientific agreement on climate change as an important driver of acceptance and motivation toward action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An urgent aim of ecology is to understand how key species relate to climatic and environmental variation, to better predict their prospects under future climate change. The abundant dwarf shrub bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) has caught particular interest due to its uphill expansion into alpine areas. Species' performance under changing climate has been widely studied using the climatic space‐for‐time approach along elevation gradients, but potentially confounding, local environmental variables that vary along elevation gradients have rarely been considered. In this study, performed in 10 sites along an elevation gradient (200–875 m) in W Norway, we recorded species composition and bilberry performance, both vegetative (ramet size and cover) and reproductive (berry and seed production) properties, over one to 4 years. We disentangled effects of local environmental variables and between‐year, climatic variation (precipitation and temperature), and identified shared and unique contributions of these variables by variation partitioning. We found bilberry ramet size, cover and berry production to peak at intermediate elevations, whereas seed production increased upwards. The peaks were less pronounced in extreme (dry or cold) summers than in normal summers. Local environmental variables explained much variation in ramet size and cover, less in berry production, and showed no relation to seed production. Climatic variables explained more of the variation in berry and seed production than in ramet size and cover, with temperature relating to vegetative performance, and precipitation to reproductive performance. Bilberry's clonal growth and effective reproduction probably explain why the species persists in the forest and at the same time invades alpine areas. Our findings raise concerns of the appropriateness of the climatic space‐for‐time approach. We recommend including both climatic and local environmental variables in studies of variation along elevation gradients and conclude that variation partitioning can be a useful supplement to other methods for analysing variation in plant performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large mammals are susceptible to land use and climate change, unless they are safeguarded within large, protected areas. It is crucial to comprehend the effects of these changes on mammals to develop a conservation plan. We identified ecological hotspots that can sustain an ecosystem for the endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris), an umbrella species. We developed three distinct ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) for the Bengal tiger in the Indian East Himalayan Region (IEHR). The first model served as the baseline and considered habitat type, climate, land cover, and anthropogenic threats. The second model focused on climate, land use, and anthropogenic threats, the third model focused on climate variables. We projected the second and third models onto two future climate scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. We evaluated the threats possess to protected areas within eco‐sensitive zone based on the potential tiger habitat. Finally, we compared the potential habitat with the IUCN tiger range. Our study revealed that the Brahmaputra valley will serve as the primary habitat for tigers in the future. However, considering the projected severe climate scenarios, it is anticipated that tigers will undergo a range shift towards the north and east, especially in high‐altitude regions. Very high conservation priority areas, which make up 3.4% of the total area, are predominantly located in the riverine corridor of Assam. High conservation priority areas, which make up 5.5% of total area are located in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. It is important to note that conservation priority areas outside of protected areas pose a greater threat to tigers. We recommend reassessing the IUCN Red List's assigned range map for tigers in the IEHR, as it is over‐predicted. Our study has led us to conclude both land use and climate change possess threats to the future habitat of tigers. The outcomes of our study will provide crucial information on identifying habitat hotspots and facilitate appropriate conservation planning efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising ocean temperatures are threatening marine species and populations worldwide, and ectothermic taxa are particularly vulnerable. Echinoderms are an ecologically important phylum of marine ectotherms and shifts in their population dynamics can have profound impacts on the marine environment. The effects of warming on echinoderms are highly variable across controlled laboratory‐based studies. Accordingly, synthesis of these studies will facilitate the better understanding of broad patterns in responses of echinoderms to ocean warming. Herein, a meta‐analysis incorporating the results of 85 studies (710 individual responses) is presented, exploring the effects of warming on various performance predictors. The mean responses of echinoderms to all magnitudes of warming were compared across multiple biological responses, ontogenetic life stages, taxonomic classes, and regions, facilitated by multivariate linear mixed effects models. Further models were conducted, which only incorporated responses to warming greater than the projected end‐of‐century mean annual temperatures at the collection sites. This meta‐analysis provides evidence that ocean warming will generally accelerate metabolic rate (+32%) and reduce survival (−35%) in echinoderms, and echinoderms from subtropical (−9%) and tropical (−8%) regions will be the most vulnerable. The relatively high vulnerability of echinoderm larvae to warming (−20%) indicates that this life stage may be a significant developmental bottleneck in the near‐future, likely reducing successful recruitment into populations. Furthermore, asteroids appear to be the class of echinoderms that are most negatively affected by elevated temperature (−30%). When considering only responses to magnitudes of warming representative of end‐of‐century climate change projections, the negative impacts on asteroids, tropical species and juveniles were exacerbated (−51%, −34% and −40% respectively). The results of these analyses enable better predictions of how keystone and invasive echinoderm species may perform in a warmer ocean, and the possible consequences for populations, communities and ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body condition is a frequently used physiological indicator of avian health and can be affected by an array of environmental variables. Although a number of studies have investigated the specific effects of individual weather variables on body condition in birds, few have analyzed the effects of both temperature and precipitation within the context of an extreme weather event such as hurricanes. In this study, we examined the relationship between breeding‐season body condition and daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and monthly total precipitation for three passerine bird species at the Welder Wildlife Refuge near Rockport, Texas. We also evaluated yearly changes in body condition over a 12‐year period for northern cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis), painted buntings (Passerina ciris), and white‐eyed vireos (Vireo griseus), focusing on the extreme precipitation event of Hurricane Harvey, which caused heavy localized flooding. We found that body condition declined with average daily minimum and maximum temperatures, while precipitation had varied, species‐specific effects in the three species analyzed. Our results also suggest that northern cardinals experienced a notable reduction in average body condition in the 2 years following Hurricane Harvey. Taken together, we conclude that short‐term precipitation and temperature drivers can be important correlates of body condition in songbirds and that severe weather events may reduce body condition in some bird species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to Gloger's rule, animal colouration is expected to be darker in wetter and warmer climates. Such environmental clines are predicted to occur in colour polymorphic species and to be shaped by selection if colour morphs represent adaptations to different environments. We studied if the distribution of the colour polymorphic tawny owl (Strix aluco) morphs (a pheomelanic brown and a pale grey) across Europe follow the predictions of Gloger's rule and if there is a temporal change in the geographical patterns corresponding to regional variations in climate change. We used data on tawny owl museum skin specimen collections. First, we investigated long‐term spatiotemporal variation in the probability of observing the colour morphs in different climate zones. Second, we studied if the probability of observing the colour morphs was associated with general climatic conditions. Third, we studied if weather fluctuations prior to the finding year of an owl explain colour morph in each climate zone. The brown tawny owl morph was historically more common than the grey morph in every studied climate zone. Over time, the brown morph has become rarer in the temperate and Mediterranean zone, whereas it has first become rarer but then again more common in the boreal zone. Based on general climatic conditions, winter and summer temperatures were positively and negatively associated with the proportion of brown morph, respectively. Winter precipitation was negatively associated with the proportion of brown morph. The effects of 5‐year means of weather on the probability to observe a brown morph differed between climate zones, indicating region‐dependent effect of climate change and weather on tawny owl colouration. To conclude, tawny owl colouration does not explicitly follow Gloger's rule, implying a time and space‐dependent complex system shaped by many factors. We provide novel insights into how the geographic distribution of pheomelanin‐based colour polymorphism is changing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ongoing climatic changes have altered growing conditions for plants by limiting water availability and inducing unprecedented temperature increases, eliciting plant functional responses that compromise floral trait expression, reduce pollen production and promote early self‐pollination. In a controlled greenhouse study, plants of Collinsia heterophylla, an annual mixed‐mated hermaphrodite, were grown under temperature and water stresses. Floral trait responses and related effects on plant reproductive success were recorded. Plants grown under temperature and water stresses were shorter and had fewer leaves at flowering than control plants. Temperature‐stressed plants flowered earlier and had smaller flowers that produced fewer per capita pollen grains than control and water‐stressed plants. While lifetime flower production in plants experiencing temperature stress alone or water stress alone was similar to control plants, those receiving combined temperature and water stresses had significantly lower lifetime flower production. Abiotic stress did not affect investment in female traits such as ovule number per flower, but impacted male traits seen as fewer pollen grains per flower. In plants experiencing abiotic stress, an increase in autonomous self‐pollination was facilitated through a compromise in herkogamy, a sexual interference mechanism that promotes cross‐pollination. Spatial separation between stigma and anther, a measure of herkogamy was zero or negative in stressed plants. Thus, abiotic stress responses in plants did not compromise plant reproductive success as autonomous selfing was augmented. In nature, such responses will likely reduce available nutrition for pollinators through decreased flower and pollen production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Museum specimens and citizen science initiatives are valuable sources of information on how anthropogenic activities affect biodiversity and how species respond to rapid global change. Although tropical regions harbor most of the planet's biodiversity, investigations on species' phenological changes are heavily biased toward temperate regions. Such unevenness in phenological research is also taxonomically biased, with reptiles being the least studied group among tetrapod species regarding animal phenology. Herein, we used long‐term time‐series data to investigate environmentally driven changes in the activity pattern of tropical forest snakes. We gathered natural history collection and citizen science data for 25 snake species (five venomous and 20 non‐venomous) from an Atlantic Forest region in southeastern Brazil. Using circular mixed‐effects models, we investigate whether snake activity patterns followed the variation in environmental variables over a decade. Our results show that the activity pattern of Atlantic Forest snakes was seasonal and largely driven by average temperature and relative humidity. Since snakes are ectothermic animals, they are particularly sensitive to temperature variations, especially at small scales. Moreover, relative humidity can affect snake's seasonal activities through physiological constraints and/or prey availability. Most specimens were registered during the rainy season, with highly venomous snakes (lanceheads and coral snakes) emerging as the most abundant taxa. We highlight the importance of citizen science and natural history collections in better understanding biodiversity. Furthermore, our data obtained from local collectors underscore the need for environmental education programs and collaboration between researchers and local decision‐makers to raise awareness and reduce conflicts between people and snakes in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kelp forests worldwide are threatened by both climate change and localized anthropogenic impacts. Species with cold‐temperate, subpolar, or polar distributions are projected to experience range contractions over the coming decades, which may be exacerbated by climatic events such as marine heatwaves and increased freshwater and sediment input from rapidly contracting glaciers. The northeast Pacific has an extensive history of harvesting and cultivating kelps for subsistence, commercial, and other uses, and, therefore, declines in kelp abundance and distributional shifts will have significant impacts on this region. Gaps in our understanding of how cold‐temperate kelp species respond to climate stressors have limited our ability to forecast the status of kelp forests in future oceans, which hampers conservation and management efforts. Here, we conducted a structured literature review to provide a synthesis of the impacts of multiple climate‐related stressors on kelp forests in the northeast Pacific, assess existing knowledge gaps, and suggest potential research priorities. We chose to focus on temperature, salinity, sediment load, and light as the stressors most likely to vary and impact kelps as climate change progresses. Our results revealed biases in the existing literature toward studies investigating the impacts of temperature, or temperature in combination with light. Other stressors, particularly salinity and sediment load, have received much less focus despite rapidly changing conditions in high‐latitude regions. Furthermore, multiple stressor studies appear to focus on kelp sporophytes, and it is necessary that we improve our understanding of how kelp microstages will be affected by stressor combinations. Finally, studies that investigate the potential of experimental transplantation or selective cultivation of genotypes resilient to environmental changes are lacking and would be useful for the conservation of wild populations and the seaweed aquaculture industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bower's Berylmys (Berylmys bowersi) is one of the largest rodent species with a wide distribution range in southern China and the Indochinese Peninsula. The taxonomy and evolutionary history of the B. bowersi is still controversial and confusing. In this study, we used two mitochondrial (Cyt b and COI) and three nuclear (GHR, IRBP, and RAG1) genes to estimate the phylogeny, divergence times, and biogeographic history of B. bowersi. We also explored morphological variations among the specimens collected across China. Our phylogenetic analyses indicated that the traditional B. bowersi contains at least two species: B. bowersi and B. latouchei. Berylmys latouchei was considered a junior synonym of B. bowersi distributed in eastern China, which is confirmed to be distinguishable at specific level because of its larger size, relatively larger and whiter hind feet, and several cranial traits. The estimated split of B. bowersi and B. latouchei was at the early Pleistocene (ca. 2.00 Mya), which might be the outcome of the combined effects of climate change in the early Pleistocene and isolation by the Minjiang River. Our results highlight the Wuyi Mountains in northern Fujian, China, as a glacial refugia during the Pleistocene and call for more intensive surveys and systematic revisions of small mammals in eastern China. The Bowers Berylmys (Berylmys bowersi) is one of the largest rodent species with a wide distribution range in southern China and the Indochinese Peninsula. Our analyses indicated that the traditional B. bowersi is a species complex contains at least two species: B. bowersi and B. latouchei. Also, our results highlight the Wuyi Mountains as the glacial refugia in the Pleistocene and call for more intensive surveys and systematic revisions of small mammals in the eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]