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Previous studies in tundra ecology provide evidence for sensitivity of the vegetation-soil complex to climate. Short-term experiments (≤10 yr) suggest that climate change may have a decade-scale effect on soil moisture, decomposition and nutrient availability, plant phenology, and plant growth. In contrast, there exists little evidence to confirm or refute the role of climate in structuring tundra vegetation over longer time scales (10 to 1000 yr). This study accordingly examines ∼1500 yr in the stratigraphy of two permafrost sediment cores from a High Arctic, polygon-patterned, graminoid-moss tundra. Present-day bryophyte-environment relationships are quantified, and the radiocarbon-dated macrofossil record of bryophytes is used to reconstruct past changes in soil moisture. The paleoecological record is characterized by pronounced variability during polygon development. As the hydrology of tundra polygons is controlled by known climatic and geomorphologic mechanisms, the recurrent development of polygon vegetation (cf. hydrologic change) is compared to an independent paleoclimatic proxy for net radiation (Rn). Based on this comparison, the vegetation provides support for a pronounced shift to colder and wetter conditions during the Little Ice Age (∼ 300-465 yr BP), though the long-term response to past climate change is otherwise equivocal. We suggest accordingly that autogenic geomorphologic-vegetation processes may have been generally more important than climate in the long-term development of the polygon-patterned wetland examined. A framework for such processes is presented. We caution that previous research to simulate and describe the effects of climate warming might not have properly accounted for the dynamic role of geomorphology in regulating tundra microclimate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]