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Abstract: The boreal biome represents approximately one third of the world's forested area and plays an important role in global biogeochemical and energy cycles. Numerous studies in boreal Alaska have concluded that growth of black and white spruce is declining as a result of temperature‐induced drought stress. The combined evidence of declining spruce growth and changes in the fire regime that favor establishment of deciduous tree species has led some investigators to suggest the region may be transitioning from dominance by spruce to dominance by deciduous forests and/or grasslands. Although spruce growth trends have been extensively investigated, few studies have evaluated long‐term radial growth trends of the dominant deciduous species (Alaska paper birch and trembling aspen) and their sensitivity to moisture availability. We used a large and spatially extensive sample of tree cores from interior Alaska to compare long‐term growth trends among contrasting tree species (white and black spruce vs. birch and aspen). All species showed a growth peak in the mid‐1940s, although growth following the peak varied strongly across species. Following an initial decline from the peak, growth of white spruce showed little evidence of a trend, while black spruce and birch growth showed slight growth declines from ~1970 to present. Aspen growth was much more variable than the other species and showed a steep decline from ~1970 to present. Growth of birch, black and white spruce was sensitive to moisture availability throughout most of the tree‐ring chronologies, as evidenced by negative correlations with air temperature and positive correlations with precipitation. However, a positive correlation between previous July precipitation and aspen growth disappeared in recent decades, corresponding with a rise in the population of the aspen leaf miner (Phyllocnistis populiella), an herbivorous moth, which may have driven growth to a level not seen since the early 20th century. Our results provide important historical context for recent growth and raise questions regarding competitive interactions among the dominant tree species and exchanges of carbon and energy in the warming climate of interior Alaska. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increment cores from the boreal forest have long been used to reconstruct past climates. However, in recent years, numerous studies have revealed a deterioration of the correlation between temperature and tree growth that is commonly referred to as divergence. In the Brooks Range of northern Alaska, USA, studies of white spruce ( Picea glauca) revealed that trees in the west generally showed positive growth trends, while trees in the central and eastern Brooks Range showed mixed and negative trends during late 20th century warming. The growing season climate of the eastern Brooks Range is thought to be drier than the west. On this basis, divergent tree growth in the eastern Brooks Range has been attributed to drought stress. To investigate the hypothesis that drought-induced stomatal closure can explain divergence in the Brooks Range, we synthesized all of the Brooks Range white spruce data available in the International Tree Ring Data Bank ( ITRDB) and collected increment cores from our primary sites in each of four watersheds along a west-to-east gradient near the Arctic treeline. For cores from our sites, we measured ring widths and calculated carbon isotope discrimination (δ13C), intrinsic water-use efficiency ( iWUE), and needle intercellular CO2 concentration ( Ci) from δ13C in tree-ring alpha-cellulose. We hypothesized that trees exhibiting divergence would show a corresponding decline in δ13C, a decline in Ci, and a strong increase in iWUE. Consistent with the ITRDB data, trees at our western and central sites generally showed an increase in the strength of the temperature-growth correlation during late 20th century warming, while trees at our eastern site showed strong divergence. Divergent tree growth was not, however, associated with declining δ13C. Meanwhile, estimates of Ci showed a strong increase at all of our study sites, indicating that more substrate was available for photosynthesis in the early 21st than in the early 20th century. Our results, which are corroborated by measurements of xylem sap flux density, needle gas exchange, and measurements of growth and δ13C along moisture gradients within each watershed, suggest that drought-induced stomatal closure is probably not the cause of 20th century divergence in the Brooks Range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although many studies have examined the phenological mismatches between interacting organisms, few have addressed the potential for mismatches between phenology and seasonal weather conditions. In the Arctic, rapid phenological changes in many taxa are occurring in association with earlier snowmelt. The timing of snowmelt is jointly affected by the size of the late winter snowpack and the temperature during the spring thaw. Increased winter snowpack results in delayed snowmelt, whereas higher air temperatures and faster snowmelt advance the timing of snowmelt. Where interannual variation in snowpack is substantial, changes in the timing of snowmelt can be largely uncoupled from changes in air temperature. Using detailed, long-term data on the flowering phenology of four arctic plant species from Zackenberg, Greenland, we investigate whether there is a phenological component to the temperature conditions experienced prior to and during flowering. In particular, we assess the role of timing of flowering in determining pre-flowering exposure to freezing temperatures and to the temperatures experienced prior to flowering. We then examine the implications of flowering phenology for flower abundance. Earlier snowmelt resulted in greater exposure to freezing conditions, suggesting an increased potential for a mismatch between the timing of flowering and seasonal weather conditions and an increased potential for negative consequences, such as freezing damage. We also found a parabolic relationship between the timing of flowering and the temperature experienced during flowering after taking interannual temperature effects into account. If timing of flowering advances to a cooler period of the growing season, this may moderate the effects of a general warming trend across years. Flower abundance was quadratically associated with the timing of flowering, such that both early and late flowering led to lower flower abundance than did intermediate flowering. Our results indicate that shifting the timing of flowering affects the temperature experienced during flower development and flowering beyond that imposed by interannual variations in climate. We also found that phenological timing may affect flower abundance, and hence, fitness. These findings suggest that plant population responses to future climate change will be shaped not only by extrinsic climate forcing, but also by species' phenological responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a mid-Holocene fire-regime shift in boreal forests of the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska, USA. Fire-return intervals (FRIs, number of years between fires) are estimated over the past 7000 calibrated 14C years (7-0 kyr BP [before present]) from short-term variations in charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) at three lakes, and an index of area burned is inferred from long-term CHARs at these sites. ALFRESCO simulations of FRIs and annual area burned are based on prescribed vegetation and climate for 7-5 kyr BP and 5-0 kyr BP, inferred from pollen and stomata records and qualitative paleoclimate proxies. Two sets of experiments examine potential causes of increased burning between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. (I) Static-vegetation scenarios: white spruce dominates with static mean temperature and total precipitation of the growing season for 7-0 kyr BP or with decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation for 5-0 kyr BP. (2) Changed-vegetation scenarios: black spruce dominates 5-0 kyr BP, with static temperature and precipitation or decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation. Median FRIs decreased between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP in empirical data and changed-vegetation scenarios but remained relatively constant in static-vegetation scenarios. Median empirical and simulated FRIs are not statistically different for 7-5 kyr BP and for two changed-vegetation scenarios (temperature decrease, precipitation increase) for 5-0 kyr BP. In these scenarios, cooler temperatures or increased precipitation dampened the effect of increased landscape flammability resulting from the increase in black spruce. CHAR records and all changed-vegetation scenarios indicate long-term increases in area burned between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. The similarity of CHAR and ALFRESCO results demonstrates the compatibility of these independent data sets for investigating ecological mechanisms causing past fire-regime changes. The finding that vegetation flammability was a major driver of Holocene fire regimes is consistent with other investigations that suggest that landscape fuel characteristics will mediate the direct effects of future climate change on boreal fire regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern Québec-Labrador tree lines are the most climatically stressed tree ecosystems of eastern North America. In particular, white spruce (Picea glauca) tree line populations distributed between 56° N and 58° N and 61° W and 66° W show contrasted responses to recent changes in climate according to their geographic position relative to the Labrador Sea. Along the coast, the northernmost latitudinal and altitudinal tree lines responded positively to warming over the last 50 years with invading spruce several tens of meters above the current tree line. In contrast, white spruce tree lines across the wind-exposed Labrador plateau are located much higher in altitude and have receded a few tens of meters beginning around AD 1740-1750 and have not yet recovered. Whereas no field evidence of recent fire and insect damage was found, all inland tree line stands were progressively damaged likely due to mechanical defoliation of wind-exposed trees. Massive tree death in the 19th century caused a reduction in the number of seed-bearing trees, and declining tree lines were not replenished by seedlings. Recent warming reported for northern latitudes has not been strong enough to change the regressive tree line trajectory in interior Labrador. However, white spruce expansion above coastal tree line in the northernmost forest site in Labrador is in line with current climatic trends. It is hypothesized that the species is still advancing toward its potential tree line higher in altitude due to delayed postglacial migration. The slow advance of white spruce in northernmost coastal Labrador is likely caused by the rugged topography of the Torngat-Kaumajet-Kiglapait mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]