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Vegetation greening not only offers climate benefits but also enhances residents' well-being in urban areas. China and India lead the world in terms of global greening. However, systematic studies summarizing the green development levels of both countries are still lacking. Here, we explore the regional significant greening levels and spatial distribution characteristics of China and India across multiple spatial scales using the significant greening level as an indicator. Additionally, we analyze the diverse relationships between significant greening in China and India and factors such as land use, economy, and population. The results indicate that areas with significant greening in China are primarily located in some mountainous regions in the central and eastern parts, while in India, areas with significant greening are mainly distributed in plain and plateau regions. Within significantly greening areas, 55.57% in China are forests, and 95.67% in India are croplands. The greening level in built-up areas in China is mostly positively correlated with economic factors, but in economically disadvantaged areas, the greening level is not necessarily the lowest. In Indian built-up areas, the greening level is negatively correlated with the economy. Regarding the relationship with urbanization, the greening level in the surrounding areas of built-up areas in both China and India generally decreases with the increasing degree of urbanization's influence, but the damage caused by urban development to the greening level in India is much higher than in China. 83% of cities in China have medium-range per capita greening levels, while 60% of cities in India have per capita greening levels in the lower range. A systematic analysis and summary of China and India's greening development can provide strategic references for other developing countries to enhance greening initiatives and improve their level of sustainable development.

Vegetation is crucial in enhancing the urban environment and benefiting human settlements. Consequently, monitoring and attributing vegetation dynamics in urban agglomerations are paramount. Nevertheless, quantitatively assessing the driving mechanisms of urban vegetation proves challenging due to its direct regulation by human land use activities and its susceptibility to influences from urban environmental changes intertwined with global environmental shifts. A critical obstacle arises from the scarcity of reliable long-term observation data, further amplifying the difficulty of such research. Using a newly developed technique that effectively resolves cross-sensor bias and low revisiting frequency issues, we generated Landsat-based long-term vegetation indices data (NDVI, EVI, and NIRv) during 1986–2020. Our study quantified spatiotemporal vegetation changes and examined the contributions of various drivers, including atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variations, and land cover changes over the past four decades in two representative urban agglomerations in China: the Wuhan Metropolitan Area (WMA) and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). We found notable and prevalent rising trends of vegetation growth in WMA and GBA during 1986–2020, with considerable spatial and time-period variability. Greening was continuously observed in WMA with a significant increasing trend (0.0019 yr−1, p

Topographical maps from the nineteenth century hold significant historical and environmental value, providing insights into landscape changes over the past two centuries. These maps feature distinct symbols representing various land cover types, such as forests and wetlands, offering a unique historical perspective on land-use changes. For example, there has been a significant reduction in wetlands because of agricultural expansion and intensification which lead to biodiversity loss and increased greenhouse gas emissions globally. Our study uses U-net CNN to automatically segment wetland symbols from nineteenth century maps from hundreds of map sheets for an area of interest a large river catchment in Ireland. Extracted wetland extents were intersected with digital land cover datasets to estimate current land cover on former wetland (on both organic and mineral soils). Utilizing U-Net, we successfully automated the segmentation of wetland symbols from hundreds of nineteenth-century map sheets, focusing on a large river catchment area in Ireland. Our analysis achieved a very high F1 score of 98.2% and a Kappa of 89%. While it is challenging to verify the veracity of historical map content, the largely untapped information contained within these maps are important for understanding landscape change over time, and especially before the era of Earth observation & remote sensing. The data extracted from these sources can inform modern environmental management strategies, for example, in targeted rewetting of peatlands, or in habitat restoration.

In order to protect natural ecosystems, areas that can provide higher ecosystem services are usually designated as ecological priority protection areas. However, some areas with good natural and socio-cultural conditions (called ecological improvement zones in this study, EIZs) that do not provide the highest ecosystem services are often ignored. Therefore, this study attempts to use ecological functional zones as the research unit. And delineating the EIZs by combining multiple critical impact thresholds of ecosystem health (EH) change. Northwestern Hubei Province (NWHB), an important ecological function area in China, was selected as the study area. The results show that (1) the landscape of cultivated land tends to be fragmented, due to being occupied by a large amount of rural–urban land; (2) from 2000 to 2020, the EH in NWHB gradually improved; (3) spatially, the western region of NWHB is dominated by multiple ESs synergetic zone, while the eastern region is a food provision zone; and (4) except for GDP and population density, which are monotonically negatively correlated with EH, all other natural and anthropogenic factors have critical impact thresholds. The critical impact thresholds vary significantly among different ecological functional zones in different periods (e.g., In biodiversity - carbon storage synergetic zone, the threshold of DEM of around less than 1150 m in 2000 decreased to 480 m in 2005 with a clear trend of EH improvement). Meanwhile, from 2000 to 2020, EIZs are mainly distributed in key synergistic bundles in different periods. This study aims to provide services for the planning and management of ecological functional zones.

Forests are vital in combating climate change by storing and sequestrating CO2 from the atmosphere. Measuring the influence of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on the capacity of carbon storage (CS) within forest ecosystems presents a significant challenge. This study employs remote sensing techniques to examine the changes in spatiotemporal patterns of CS in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), resulting from LULC alterations between 1996 and 2021. LULC change patterns were identified for six different years utilizing the Google Earth Engine (GEE). The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was combined with GEE to evaluate the changing patterns of CS. The study discovered that the CHT region experienced a loss of 21.65 × 106 Mg of CS, owing to a 21% reduction in vegetation cover (2862.85 km^2) during the study period. The central city area (Chittagong) accounted for the most significant loss of CS (7.99 × 106 Mg), while the suburban areas of Khagrachari (0.92 × 106 Mg) and Rangamati (3.53 × 106 Mg) contributed the least. The multiple regression model revealed that elevation and vegetation characteristics significantly influenced CS. The findings underscore the importance of developing policies and strategies that mitigate the adverse effects of land cover change on CS, and advocate for sustainable forest management practices that strike a balance between ecological, social, and economic concerns.

Droughts that are hotter, more frequent, and last longer; pest outbreaks that are more extensive and more common; and fires that are more frequent, more extensive, and perhaps more severe have raised concern that forests in the western United States may not return once disturbed by one or more of these agents. Numerous field-based studies have been undertaken to better understand forest response to these changing disturbance regimes. Meta-analyses of these studies provide broad guidelines on the biotic and abiotic factors that hinder forest recovery, but study-to-study differences in methods and objectives do not support estimation of the total extent of potentially impaired forest succession. In this research, we provide an estimate of the area of potentially impaired forest succession. The estimate was derived from modeling of an 18-year land cover and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series supported by an extensive ancillary dataset. We estimate an upper bound of approximately 3470 km2 of disturbed forest that may not return or reattain prior composition and structure. Based on the data used, fire appears to be the main disturbance agent of impaired forest succession, although climatic factors cannot be discounted. The numerous field studies routinely cite distal seed sources as a factor that hinders forest recovery, and we estimate that 20 % of the upper bound estimate has no forest cover within a 4.4-ha neighborhood. Our upper bound estimate is about 0.5 % of the 2001 mapped extent of western United States forests. The estimate is cognizant of measurement and modeling uncertainties (i.e., upper bound) and uncertainties related to successional rates and trajectories (i.e., potential).

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important ecological security shelter in China, yet the environment here remains fragile and is difficult to restore. This ecosystem is likely to face additional threats in the future as it will be influenced by human activities and climate change. Although a number of investigations regarding land cover changes on the TP as well as resultant influences on ecosystem services have been performed over recent decades, reliable evaluation of future land cover change scenarios and their potential ecological impacts remain absent. Thus, to remedy this, we developed a method that can spatially and explicitly evaluate TP ecosystem services responses to future land cover changes. Simulation results for TP land cover changes between 2010 and 2030 reveal that under a business-as-usual scenario, grassland area will increase by 1.04%, wetland area will increase by 6.01%, and forested area will increase by 0.07%. In contrast, under an ecological protection scenario, forested and wetland areas will increase by 1.06% and 28.87% respectively, while grassland area will increase by 7.09%. We then calculated the responses of ecosystem services over the period same period; results show that under a business-as-usual scenario, land cover changes on the TP would lead to a net primary productively (NPP) increase of 0.004%, a 0.011% decrease in soil conservation services, and a 0.023% decrease in water yield. In contrast, under an ecological protection scenario, land cover changes on the TP would lead to a NPP increase of 0.006%, a 0.007% decrease in soil conservation services, and a 0.007% decrease in water yield. Ecosystem service values given an ecological protection scenario will be slightly higher than those given a business-as-usual scenario.

• Greening in China and India at administrative and built-up levels. • Greening status in relatively poor regions of China and India. • Comparing greening measures and their pros and cons in China and India. • China and India's greening experiences offer insights for sustainable development. Vegetation greening not only offers climate benefits but also enhances residents' well-being in urban areas. China and India lead the world in terms of global greening. However, systematic studies summarizing the green development levels of both countries are still lacking. Here, we explore the regional significant greening levels and spatial distribution characteristics of China and India across multiple spatial scales using the significant greening level as an indicator. Additionally, we analyze the diverse relationships between significant greening in China and India and factors such as land use, economy, and population. The results indicate that areas with significant greening in China are primarily located in some mountainous regions in the central and eastern parts, while in India, areas with significant greening are mainly distributed in plain and plateau regions. Within significantly greening areas, 55.57% in China are forests, and 95.67% in India are croplands. The greening level in built-up areas in China is mostly positively correlated with economic factors, but in economically disadvantaged areas, the greening level is not necessarily the lowest. In Indian built-up areas, the greening level is negatively correlated with the economy. Regarding the relationship with urbanization, the greening level in the surrounding areas of built-up areas in both China and India generally decreases with the increasing degree of urbanization's influence, but the damage caused by urban development to the greening level in India is much higher than in China. 83% of cities in China have medium-range per capita greening levels, while 60% of cities in India have per capita greening levels in the lower range. A systematic analysis and summary of China and India's greening development can provide strategic references for other developing countries to enhance greening initiatives and improve their level of sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has implemented a series of large-scale afforestation projects to improve its ecological environment in recent decades. Meanwhile, the climate conditions in China have changed substantially. However, whether afforestation or climate change dominates vegetation gross primary production (GPP) in different stages of such afforestation projects is not clear. Here, taking the region of the Shelterbelt Program for Pearl River (SPPR) as the study area, we conducted six scenario simulations using the two-leaf light use efficiency (TL-LUE) model to decouple the effects of land cover change (LCC) and climate factors, i.e., solar radiation (Rad), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and air temperature (Ta), on forest GPP, and disentangled the impact of various factors on forest GPP in Phase II (2001–2010) and Phase III (2011–2018). We found that industrialization and urbanization slightly changed the total forest area, partly offsetting the ecological benefits of the afforestation project in Phase II, and forest GPP increased slowly. As a result, Rad became the dominant factor of forest GPP increase (the cumulative contribution of 25.68 TgC in 10 years, accounting for 33.51%). In contrast, in Phase III, due to the further expansion of the afforestation area and the natural growth of earlier planted forests, the forest GPP increased rapidly, as did the contribution of LCC. Finally, LCC replaced Rad to become the primary contributor (the cumulative contribution of 114.42 TgC in 8 years, accounting for 60.51%) to the forest GPP increase. During the whole study period, Ta contributed insignificantly to the variation in forest GPP, while to some extent VPD decreased the forest GPP (−12.90% and −4.11% of the contributions in the two phases, respectively). The results suggest that the emergence of ecological benefits of afforestation projects requires a certain time length and forestation scale. Our study provides a basis for formulating effective land use policies.

Quantifying the impacts of vegetation restoration (VR) on energy exchange is essential for exploring climate-vegetation interactions. Due to the complexity of land–atmosphere energy exchange and limited observation networks, the influence of VR on the energy balance remains unclear. To improve the understanding of the energy budget change associated with VR in the Loess Plateau (LP), we performed a series of sensitivity simulation experiments using the Community Land Model within the Community Earth System Model, and the spatiotemporal responses of energy exchange to VR and the roles of VR in the variations in energy budget under climate change were investigated. The results showed that the land cover changes from 2000 to 2015 exerted a positive effect on net radiation (NR) and sensible heat (SH), and evident increases in annual mean NR and SH were found in the southeastern LP where larger-scale cropland was converted to grassland or forestland, with increasing magnitudes exceeding 2 W/m2. Latent heat (LH) increased only during May–July, particularly on the southern edge of LP. The increasing magnitudes of NR and LH under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 were larger than those under RCP4.5, with the greatest differences being approximately 4 W/m2 and 5 W/m2 during 2081–2100 for NR and LH, respectively. SH remained nearly stable under RCP4.5 and showed a weak decrease under RCP8.5. Under the same RCP, only slight differences in the energy budget components were detected between the land cover condition in 2015 and 2000, with the largest difference of 0.8 W/m2 in SH during 2021–2040. These results suggested that although both VR and climate warming exerted positive effects on NR, the impact of climate change was larger than that of VR in the LP, and a shift in the local surface energy budget toward LH would occur with climate warming.

Understanding where ecosystem services (ES) are and quantifying their supply using stakeholderś information is key for effective sustainable management. This paper describes a participatory methodology for extracting stakeholders’ ES perception for continental Portugal based on land cover using analytical hierarchy process (AHP), matrix-based approach with data visualization techniques, and scenario analysis. Results show that drought regulation was the most valued ES by stakeholders and recreation was considered the least important. Results also show that the “Agricultural areas and “Forests and semi-natural areas” land cover classes provide about two-thirds of the total ES for the country. An “Economic development” scenario will yield negative values for all ES except recreation and food supply, whereas an “Environmental development” scenario will increase all ES, except food supply. Finally, a “Sustainable development” scenario, presents values between the previous two scenarios and is the best for food supply. This operational methodology for extracting information from stakeholders and to report information on the mapping and assessment of ES can be helpful for sustainable planning in Portugal and elsewhere.

Sundarban mangrove is the largest continuous mangrove forest in the world and is the habitat of an incredible amount of biodiversity. Biodiversity loss and degradation of this highly ecologically productive mangrove forest due to climate change will have a tremendous impact on the livelihood of the people living in the deltaic region. The present study was aimed to find out the dynamics of change in different land cover for the greater Sundarban region. The multi-temporal Landsat images were used to understand the dynamics in three decades from 1998 to 2018. The analysis revealed that Sundarban mangrove forest changed very insignificantly. The change between 1998 and 2008 was approximately 1.2%, i.e. around 26.2 km2, and the change between the year 2008 and 2018 was approximately 1.27%, which consists of 28 km2. However, the dynamics of open mangrove forest and dense mangrove forest were found very high. The human habitat and aquaculture were found as the most rapidly expanding land-use type in this landscape. Area under human habitat has increased approximately 80%, i.e. nearly 654 km2 between 1998 and 2018; area under aquaculture has increased approximately 116% (i.e. around 231 km2) between 1998 and 2008. The MLP-Markov Chain based modelling of land-use has shown an overwhelming increase in human habitat in near future. However, being situated in the close vicinity of dense human population of the city Kolkata, the mangrove habitat remained intact, which is largely due to great amount of conservation efforts that have been exercised by the Govt. and the local forest department. The landscape statistical analysis for understanding the ecological dynamics of every land cover types showed that in 2018, the human habitat became second dominant category in this study area. The aquaculture practice for high economic value has pushed down the native agricultural practice in the region.

Natural and anthropogenic forces on Earth create changes in biophysical characteristics of landscapes in the forms of modifications or transformations. Since landscapes are composed of spatially configured patches of different land cover types, changes in the pattern composition and configuration may be used as indicators for identifying environmental trends and their underlying causes. To this end, pattern indices hold a strong potential to conceptualize landscape structure in many different ways. This study aims to analyse landscape changes in an urbanized coastal landscape in the eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey using pattern indices as development indicators. For this purpose, the spatial distribution of built-up areas was extracted for the years 1989, 1995, 2001, 2007 and 2019 using geo-referenced SPOT and Sentinel images. Eight landscape structure indices were calculated to demonstrate spatial and temporal diversity of area/edge, shape and aggregation characteristics of built-up patches. These indices are (1) class area (CA), (2) percentage of landscape (PL), (3) largest patch index (LPI), (4) edge density, (5) perimeter-area ratio (PARA), (6) fractal dimension (FRAC), (7) related circumscribing circle (RCC) and (8) percentage of like-adjacencies (PLADJ). The study area was divided into 215 grid-units to represent spatial diversity of development. The aforementioned indices were calculated separately for each of the units. The spatial distribution of built-up areas was also associated with land capability to assess land degradation trends. Results showed that much of the development occurred on Class I and II lands that are in fact prime agricultural areas. Results also suggest that the structure of building patches and the way that it changes vary between the coast and inland.

• Multiple cross-year-consistent VIs were derived in two urban areas during 1986–2020. • Both urban areas show greening trends but with different patterns of evolution. • The greening was mainly driven by rising CO 2 and radiation. • Greening pathways differ between the two areas in line with their development stages. Vegetation is crucial in enhancing the urban environment and benefiting human settlements. Consequently, monitoring and attributing vegetation dynamics in urban agglomerations are paramount. Nevertheless, quantitatively assessing the driving mechanisms of urban vegetation proves challenging due to its direct regulation by human land use activities and its susceptibility to influences from urban environmental changes intertwined with global environmental shifts. A critical obstacle arises from the scarcity of reliable long-term observation data, further amplifying the difficulty of such research. Using a newly developed technique that effectively resolves cross-sensor bias and low revisiting frequency issues, we generated Landsat-based long-term vegetation indices data (NDVI, EVI, and NIRv) during 1986–2020. Our study quantified spatiotemporal vegetation changes and examined the contributions of various drivers, including atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climate variations, and land cover changes over the past four decades in two representative urban agglomerations in China: the Wuhan Metropolitan Area (WMA) and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). We found notable and prevalent rising trends of vegetation growth in WMA and GBA during 1986–2020, with considerable spatial and time-period variability. Greening was continuously observed in WMA with a significant increasing trend (0.0019 yr−1, p < 0.01) in annual EVI max , while in GBA, the trends shifted from slightly decreasing (-0.0003 yr−1, p < 0.01) before 2000 to increasing (0.0038 yr−1, p < 0.01) after 2000. The disparities between WMA and GBA were due to urban development status variations across cities and periods. Elevated CO 2 concentration and increased solar radiation were the primary factors behind the overall greening. However, land cover changes partially offset these positive contributions in WMA. Our results assist in understanding vegetation dynamics and the effects of climatic and anthropogenic factors at the urban scale, providing valuable insights for ecological management in metropolitan areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• U-net CNN accurately segmented wetland symbology from nineteenth century maps. • Historic wetland extents were extracted with overall accuracy of 97% (F1 score: 0.908). • Analysis suggests ∼60 % of historic wetland area has non-wetland land cover. Topographical maps from the nineteenth century hold significant historical and environmental value, providing insights into landscape changes over the past two centuries. These maps feature distinct symbols representing various land cover types, such as forests and wetlands, offering a unique historical perspective on land-use changes. For example, there has been a significant reduction in wetlands because of agricultural expansion and intensification which lead to biodiversity loss and increased greenhouse gas emissions globally. Our study uses U-net CNN to automatically segment wetland symbols from nineteenth century maps from hundreds of map sheets for an area of interest a large river catchment in Ireland. Extracted wetland extents were intersected with digital land cover datasets to estimate current land cover on former wetland (on both organic and mineral soils). Utilizing U-Net, we successfully automated the segmentation of wetland symbols from hundreds of nineteenth-century map sheets, focusing on a large river catchment area in Ireland. Our analysis achieved a very high F1 score of 98.2% and a Kappa of 89%. While it is challenging to verify the veracity of historical map content, the largely untapped information contained within these maps are important for understanding landscape change over time, and especially before the era of Earth observation & remote sensing. The data extracted from these sources can inform modern environmental management strategies, for example, in targeted rewetting of peatlands, or in habitat restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A RCM is used to study the effect of LCC on climate extremes in Europe. • LCC significantly changes the occurrence frequency and duration of extreme climate. • Increasing understanding of land cover change-climate interactions. • Findings are helpful in developing future land management strategies in Europe. Extremes in climate and weather can pose significant challenges to economy, ecosystems and human health. Changes in land cover are one of the drivers for variability in frequency and magnitude of extreme climate at regional and local levels. In this study, a regional climate model (COSMO-CLM v4.8) is used to simulate effects in climate extremes from two different idealized land cover change scenarios in Europe. These two simulations involve abrupt large-scale conversion of today forestland to herbaceous vegetation (deforestation), and of today cropland to evergreen needle-leave forest (afforestation). A control simulation with today land cover distribution is used to identify differences in extreme climate. We find significant changes in extreme climate in both deforestation and afforestation simulations, with seasonal and spatial differences. Deforestation causes a warmer summer (with higher annual maximum temperature) and a colder winter (with lower annual minimum temperature). Afforestation slightly increases the average intensity of the hot extremes, although with high spatial variability (a reduction is common in several locations), and mitigates cold extremes in winter. Changes in extreme indices show that deforestation increases both the frequency and duration of hot and cold extremes, while afforestation causes a lower frequency of extreme cold climate. The two simulations show opposing results in the number of frozen days, as they increase for deforestation and decrease for afforestation. A drier climate is found after deforestation, whereas a wetter climate is observed after afforestation. In general, deforestation and afforestation increase the frequency of hot extreme climate as they reduce the return period and increase the return level. Overall, our findings show the potential critical effects that land cover changes can have on climate extremes, and the possible synergies that land management strategies and planning can have for climate change mitigation and adaptation at a regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • An analysis of soil natural capital vulnerability at a regional scale is presented. • Land cover trajectories determine the inherent and dynamic properties of the soil. • Inherent and dynamic properties of soil natural capital determine its vulnerability. • Replication in other basins with similar soil and climate conditions are required. Abstract In recent decades, the literature on ecosystem services has pointed to the need to quantify and characterise Soil Natural Capital (SNC) under different types of land use and cover. This points to the need of understanding the SNC processes which define the provision of ecosystem services, as well as their changes through anthropogenic time. Tropical regions are subjected to a high rate of land use transformation which may change the properties of the soil, and consequently the potential provision of ecosystem services. This paper presents a proposal for the quantification and characterization of SNC through an index of vulnerability to changes in land cover vegetation and their influence on the provision of ecosystem services for the prevention of soil erosion in tropical soils. The proposed vulnerability index considers aspects of the SNC such as the changes produced in the dynamic properties of different soil types under different types of land-use. The proposed analysis was implemented in a basin measuring 1.280 km2 situated in the department of Antioquia (Colombia) in humid tropical conditions, where 93% of the soil presents andic properties. Understanding the consequences of the land cover changes for the provision of ecosystem services, as well as how to obtain the spatial representation of the vulnerability current from SNC, allow the identification of areas in which the provision of ecosystem services is at risk inasmuch as the definition of land use policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ecosystem health in NWHB is gradually improving. • NWHB is divided into six ecological functional zones. • Determination of the critical impact threshold of ecosystem health changes in six ecological functional zones. • Delineation of ecological improvement zones. In order to protect natural ecosystems, areas that can provide higher ecosystem services are usually designated as ecological priority protection areas. However, some areas with good natural and socio-cultural conditions (called ecological improvement zones in this study, EIZs) that do not provide the highest ecosystem services are often ignored. Therefore, this study attempts to use ecological functional zones as the research unit. And delineating the EIZs by combining multiple critical impact thresholds of ecosystem health (EH) change. Northwestern Hubei Province (NWHB), an important ecological function area in China, was selected as the study area. The results show that (1) the landscape of cultivated land tends to be fragmented, due to being occupied by a large amount of rural–urban land; (2) from 2000 to 2020, the EH in NWHB gradually improved; (3) spatially, the western region of NWHB is dominated by multiple ESs synergetic zone, while the eastern region is a food provision zone; and (4) except for GDP and population density, which are monotonically negatively correlated with EH, all other natural and anthropogenic factors have critical impact thresholds. The critical impact thresholds vary significantly among different ecological functional zones in different periods (e.g., In biodiversity - carbon storage synergetic zone, the threshold of DEM of around less than 1150 m in 2000 decreased to 480 m in 2005 with a clear trend of EH improvement). Meanwhile, from 2000 to 2020, EIZs are mainly distributed in key synergistic bundles in different periods. This study aims to provide services for the planning and management of ecological functional zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Built-up areas increased by 388%,replacing 37% of green cover and water bodies. • Loss of 21% green cover reduced annual average carbon sequestration by 21.65 × 106 Mg. • Cropland increased annual average carbon sequestration by 6154163.85 Mg. • Elevation, vegetation health, and precipitation influence carbon storage. Forests are vital in combating climate change by storing and sequestrating CO 2 from the atmosphere. Measuring the influence of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on the capacity of carbon storage (CS) within forest ecosystems presents a significant challenge. This study employs remote sensing techniques to examine the changes in spatiotemporal patterns of CS in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), resulting from LULC alterations between 1996 and 2021. LULC change patterns were identified for six different years utilizing the Google Earth Engine (GEE). The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was combined with GEE to evaluate the changing patterns of CS. The study discovered that the CHT region experienced a loss of 21.65 × 106 Mg of CS, owing to a 21% reduction in vegetation cover (2862.85 km^2) during the study period. The central city area (Chittagong) accounted for the most significant loss of CS (7.99 × 106 Mg), while the suburban areas of Khagrachari (0.92 × 106 Mg) and Rangamati (3.53 × 106 Mg) contributed the least. The multiple regression model revealed that elevation and vegetation characteristics significantly influenced CS. The findings underscore the importance of developing policies and strategies that mitigate the adverse effects of land cover change on CS, and advocate for sustainable forest management practices that strike a balance between ecological, social, and economic concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding temporal and spatial dimensions of land cover dynamics is a critical factor to link ecosystem transformation to land and environmental management. The trajectory of land cover change is not a simple difference between two conditions, but a continuous process. Therefore, there is a need to integrate multiple time periods to identify slow and rapid transformations over time. We mapped land cover composition and configuration changes using time series of Landsat TM/ETM+ images (1985–2011) in Southern Chile to understand the transformation process of a temperate rainforest relict and biodiversity hotspot. Our analysis builds on 28 Landsat scenes from 1985 to 2011 that have been classified using a random forests approach. Base on the high temporal data set we quantify land cover change and fragmentation indices to fully understand landscape transformation in this area. Our results show a high deforestation process for old growth forest strongest at the beginning of the study period (1985–1986–1998–1999) followed by a progressive slowdown until 2011. Within different study periods deforestation rates were much larger than the average rate over the complete study period (0.65%), with the highest annual deforestation rate of 1.2% in 1998–1999. The deforestation resulted in a low connectivity between native forest patches. Old-growth forest was less fragmented, but was concentrated mainly in two large regions (the Andes and Coastal mountain range) with almost no connection in between. Secondary forest located in more intensively used areas was highly fragmented. Exotic forest plantation areas, one of the most important economic activities in the area, increased sevenfold (from 12,836 to 103,540 ha), especially during the first periods at the expense of shrubland, secondary forest, grassland/arable land and old grown forest. Our analysis underlines the importance of expanding temporal resolution in land cover/use change studies to guide sustainable ecosystem management strategies as increase landscape connectivity and integrate landscape planning to economic activities. The study is highlighting the key role of remote sensing in the sustainable management of human influenced ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• About 10,500 km2 of forestland was disturbed between 2001 and 2004. • About 33% of the disturbed forestland may not return to forest. • About 80% of these locations experienced moderate or severe fire. Droughts that are hotter, more frequent, and last longer; pest outbreaks that are more extensive and more common; and fires that are more frequent, more extensive, and perhaps more severe have raised concern that forests in the western United States may not return once disturbed by one or more of these agents. Numerous field-based studies have been undertaken to better understand forest response to these changing disturbance regimes. Meta-analyses of these studies provide broad guidelines on the biotic and abiotic factors that hinder forest recovery, but study-to-study differences in methods and objectives do not support estimation of the total extent of potentially impaired forest succession. In this research, we provide an estimate of the area of potentially impaired forest succession. The estimate was derived from modeling of an 18-year land cover and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series supported by an extensive ancillary dataset. We estimate an upper bound of approximately 3470 km2 of disturbed forest that may not return or reattain prior composition and structure. Based on the data used, fire appears to be the main disturbance agent of impaired forest succession, although climatic factors cannot be discounted. The numerous field studies routinely cite distal seed sources as a factor that hinders forest recovery, and we estimate that 20 % of the upper bound estimate has no forest cover within a 4.4-ha neighborhood. Our upper bound estimate is about 0.5 % of the 2001 mapped extent of western United States forests. The estimate is cognizant of measurement and modeling uncertainties (i.e., upper bound) and uncertainties related to successional rates and trajectories (i.e., potential). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of the value of ecosystem services is a valuable tool for biodiversity conservation that can facilitate better environmental policy decision-making and land management, and can help land managers develop interventions to compensate for biodiversity loss at the patch level. Previous studies have suggested that it is appropriate to assess the value of biodiversity for conservation planning by considering both the condition of the landscape and the spatial configuration of adjacent land uses that can be reflected as a proximity effect. This research examines the influence of spatial proximity on biodiversity conservation from the ecosystem service perspective based on the assumption that the variation in the proximity effect caused by land cover change has positive or negative impacts on ecological services. Three factors related to the spatial characteristics of the landscape were considered in this approach: the relative artificiality of the land cover types, the distance decay effect of patches and the impact of one land cover type on others. The proximity effect change ( PE C ) parameter reflected the relationship between the spatial proximity effect and biodiversity conservation. The results of a quantitative and spatial comparative analysis of the proposed method and the conventional method in Yingkou for the periods of 2000–2005 and 2005–2010 showed that the former can account for the temporal and spatial changes in ecosystem services for biodiversity conservation that were caused by patch-level changes as well as the interaction between the altered and adjacent patches from a spatial perspective. The metric can also identify the most critical areas for biodiversity protection and inform the efficient allocation of limited land resources for nature conservation to maximize the benefit to biodiversity by guiding the process of land-use change, particularly urbanization and agriculture. Future studies should focus on the other important factors that are applicable to the assessment of the value of biodiversity conservation in socio-ecological systems, where society and nature are mutually capable of fulfilling their roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid and periodic assessment of the impact of land cover change and climate variability on ecosystem services at regional levels is essential to understanding services and sustainability of ecosystems. This study focused on quantifying and assessing the changes in multiple ecosystem services in the Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR), China in 2000–2012. Based on the widely used biophysical models including Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs (InVEST), Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWSQ), and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) models, this study assessed the historical flow of regulating services, including soil conservation, water yield, and carbon sequestration, and provisioning service food provision. The soil conservation function of ecosystem was slightly enhanced as a whole, and water yield increased sharply, with both the soil conservation and water yield showing an increasing spatial homogenization. The net primary productivity ( NPP ) and food production increased substantially from 2000 to 2012. Ecosystem services are closely and complexly interlinked. The correlation analyses indicated a trade-off between the water yield and carbon sequestration, however, a synergy between soil conservation and carbon sequestration. Congruence between the three different ecosystem provisioning services, including pasture, meat, and grain, was found. There was also a synergy between food production and ecosystem carbon sequestration in the TRHR. Climatic variability and vegetation restoration are important for the ecosystem services flow. Correlation analyses showed that the increase in precipitation significantly enhanced the water yield ( P < 0.01) and soil erosion ( P < 0.01), while the temperature increase influenced positively the NPP ( P < 0.1). The experience of ecological rehabilitation and the change in key ecosystem services in the TRHR exemplified the positive effects of environmental policies and the necessity of adopting an adaptive management approach. Thus the ecological construction and policy making should take climate variability into account, and facilitate synergies on multiple ecosystem services in order to maximize human well-being and preserve its natural ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest fragmentation constitutes one of the main consequences of land cover change worldwide. Through this process gaps in habitat coverage are created and the ability of populations in the remaining fragments to maintain themselves is put in doubt. Hence, two options need to be considered: conserving the remaining forest fragments, and restoring habitat in some deforested patches with the aim of reestablishing the connections among the fragments. We established a mathematical index (SIR) that describes the suitability of individual habitat patches for restoration within a landscape. The index considers classes of distances among fragments and categories of habitat quality in the areas surrounding the fragments to assess habitat quality in terms of probability of dispersal and survival of propagules (especially seeds and cutting). In the present study, we created detailed maps depicting SIR values for two periods (1988 and 2011) for Sorocaba region (São Paulo State, Brazil). We derived land cover maps from satellite images for the two years of our study, and then surveyed the transition of land cover categories and landscape metrics between years. A model for the SIR was created using a map of distance classes among fragments and also a map of habitat quality established according to each land cover category. For both 1988 and 2011, pasture was the predominant land cover category. The main land cover transitions were from pasture to urban (10.6%) and from pasture to forest fragments (13.4%). Although the land cover class “wood sites” increased, the data of SIR revealed that the areas of habitat categorized as excellent and good both decreased, while habitat classes categorized as poor and very poor increased. Our model has the potential to be applied to other regions where the forest is fragmented. Hence, local policy makers will be able to use this model to determine local patches of high value for conservation and also the most ideal locations for restoration projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • We projected the land cover change in Tibetan Plateau from 2010 to 2030. • Business-as-uusual (BAU) and ecological protection (EP) scenario were developed. • Responses of ecosystem services to projected land cover changes were assessed. • NPP increased by 0.004% and 0.006% under BAU and EP scenario, respectively. • Water yield decreased by 0.023% and 0.007% under BAU and EP, respectively. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important ecological security shelter in China, yet the environment here remains fragile and is difficult to restore. This ecosystem is likely to face additional threats in the future as it will be influenced by human activities and climate change. Although a number of investigations regarding land cover changes on the TP as well as resultant influences on ecosystem services have been performed over recent decades, reliable evaluation of future land cover change scenarios and their potential ecological impacts remain absent. Thus, to remedy this, we developed a method that can spatially and explicitly evaluate TP ecosystem services responses to future land cover changes. Simulation results for TP land cover changes between 2010 and 2030 reveal that under a business-as-usual scenario, grassland area will increase by 1.04%, wetland area will increase by 6.01%, and forested area will increase by 0.07%. In contrast, under an ecological protection scenario, forested and wetland areas will increase by 1.06% and 28.87% respectively, while grassland area will increase by 7.09%. We then calculated the responses of ecosystem services over the period same period; results show that under a business-as-usual scenario, land cover changes on the TP would lead to a net primary productively (NPP) increase of 0.004%, a 0.011% decrease in soil conservation services, and a 0.023% decrease in water yield. In contrast, under an ecological protection scenario, land cover changes on the TP would lead to a NPP increase of 0.006%, a 0.007% decrease in soil conservation services, and a 0.007% decrease in water yield. Ecosystem service values given an ecological protection scenario will be slightly higher than those given a business-as-usual scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was conducted in a rural region where there are conventional and organic farms, the agricultural production includes more than 20 million people, and the effect on environmental quality is still poorly known in terms of indicators. Our objectives were: (1) compare soils attributes to reference areas, (2) verifying if cultivated areas under different farm systems presented differences in the soils attributes, (3) evaluate the attributes of quality water of watersheds and comparing the results with limiting values established by environmental legislation, and (4) analyze the values considering three criterion: watersheds, climatic season, and region of the landscapes. The study was conducted in two rural watersheds that have similar biophysical features and located in the Ibiúna municipality, São Paulo State, Brazil. However, one watershed encompasses farms where landowners largely use conventional agricultural systems. In the other watershed approximately 25% of the farms there are using an organic farm system. In the two watersheds soil samples were collected in sites covered with natural forest and in sites with agriculture (one watershed being organic and other being conventional). The attributes analyzed were soil bulk density (BD), concentrations of Carbon (C) and Nitrogen (N), C:N ratio, C Management Index, and the abundance of 13 C and 15 N in the soil organic matter. Water attributes were analyzed onsite or in laboratory after analysis of samples. Analyses included: air and water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, salinity, total of dissolved solids, total solids, electric conductivity, turbidity, total chloride, nitrate, total phosphorus and potassium. Regarding the soil attributes our database revealed that (1) the soils from cultivated sites of both watersheds presented significant differences from their respective forested areas, (2) Soil attributes are of equal quality in both farm systems. Concerning water attributes: (1) almost all attributes presented values better than the limiting values stipulated by Brazilian legislation; (2) the watersheds did not present significant differences of most of the attributes; (3) in the criteria climatic season data showed some significant differences. The data showed that the soils from the areas used for agricultural ends present belief that significantly worse soil quality in comparison to soils from sites still covered with natural forest. Neither the land cover nor farming system are altering the superficial water quality of the studied watershed and this appears to be related to the extensive percentage of natural remaining vegetation that still exists in both watersheds. The seasonality is an important force that drives the quality characteristics of the water. We highlight that the principles of organic agriculture should be practiced more efficiently and influences such as deforestation should be rigorously avoided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land conversion affects the delivery of ecosystem goods and services. In this study, we used a 50 years time series of land cover maps to assess the potential impacts of forest cover changes on ecosystem services. A multi-source data integration strategy was followed to reduce inconsistencies in land cover change detection that result from the comparison of historical aerial photographs and satellite images. Our forest cover change analysis highlighted a shift from net deforestation to net reforestation in the early 1990s, consistent with the forest transition theory. When taking the nature of forest cover changes into account, our data show that the areal increase of the forested area was not associated with an improvement in ecological conditions. The overall capacity of the landscape to deliver ecosystem services dropped steadily by 16% over the 50 years’ study period. Conversion of native forests to agricultural land was associated with the strongest decline in ecosystem services. Conversion of natural grasslands into pine plantations mostly led to negative and probably irreversible impacts on the delivery of ecosystem services. Conversion of degraded agricultural lands into pine plantations led to an improvement in ecological conditions. An effective spatial targeting of forestation programs has the potential to maximize the environmental benefits that forest plantations may offer while minimizing their environmental harm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Forest GPP change in the area of the Shelterbelt Program for Pearl River was studied. • The contributions of land cover and climate changes in two periods were disentangled. • During 2001–2010, solar radiation dominated a slow increase of forest GPP. • During 2011–2018, land cover change became the primary contributor of a fast GPP increase. • Afforestation ecological benefits emerge after a certain time period and forestation scale. China has implemented a series of large-scale afforestation projects to improve its ecological environment in recent decades. Meanwhile, the climate conditions in China have changed substantially. However, whether afforestation or climate change dominates vegetation gross primary production (GPP) in different stages of such afforestation projects is not clear. Here, taking the region of the Shelterbelt Program for Pearl River (SPPR) as the study area, we conducted six scenario simulations using the two-leaf light use efficiency (TL-LUE) model to decouple the effects of land cover change (LCC) and climate factors, i.e., solar radiation (Rad), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and air temperature (Ta), on forest GPP, and disentangled the impact of various factors on forest GPP in Phase II (2001–2010) and Phase III (2011–2018). We found that industrialization and urbanization slightly changed the total forest area, partly offsetting the ecological benefits of the afforestation project in Phase II, and forest GPP increased slowly. As a result, Rad became the dominant factor of forest GPP increase (the cumulative contribution of 25.68 TgC in 10 years, accounting for 33.51%). In contrast, in Phase III, due to the further expansion of the afforestation area and the natural growth of earlier planted forests, the forest GPP increased rapidly, as did the contribution of LCC. Finally, LCC replaced Rad to become the primary contributor (the cumulative contribution of 114.42 TgC in 8 years, accounting for 60.51%) to the forest GPP increase. During the whole study period, Ta contributed insignificantly to the variation in forest GPP, while to some extent VPD decreased the forest GPP (−12.90% and −4.11% of the contributions in the two phases, respectively). The results suggest that the emergence of ecological benefits of afforestation projects requires a certain time length and forestation scale. Our study provides a basis for formulating effective land use policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Grain for Green Project (GGP) is the largest land retirement/afforestation program in China; it was primarily initiated to reduce the soil erosion and improve the ecological conditions in the Loess Plateau in 1999. If effective, this massive regional effort will induce significant improvement in the vegetation conditions. At this time, the effectiveness of the GGP has not been well documented. Using Ansai County as a case study, we characterized the impact of the GGP on the land covers and landscape characteristics of this area by using multi-temporal Landsat MSS, TM and ETM+ images of 1978, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010. The results indicate that the land cover patterns and landscape characteristics in the county were greatly altered in a considerably short period. The implementation of the GGP increased the newly forested land substantially to 21.4% of the study area by 2010 at the cost of both cropland and shrub–grassland, which decreased by 46.3% and 18.8%, respectively, from 1995 to 2010. Consequently, the coverage of forested land (both older forest and newly forested land) increased from 12.4% in 1995 to 37.7% in 2010. Moreover, the GGP increased landscape fragmentation as indicated by a decreasing mean patch size and changes in class-level landscape indicators varied with land cover categories. The GGP induced improvement in vegetation conditions may benefit soil erosion alleviation and carbon sequestration in the Loess Plateau. However, the potential for the GGP to provide long-term positive ecological effects requires further study. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Human activities as well as natural events can dramatically affect land degradation negatively or positively. In Egypt, agriculture is a key sector of the economy. Land reclamation seeks to transfer desert areas to agricultural land and support the construction of new villages. The agricultural productivity improvement of these Newlands is slow and requires considerable time due to their fragility and sensitivity to desertification. The main objectives of this study were the assessment, monitoring, and mapping of the areas’ most sensitive to desertification in the Bustan 3 area, Egypt; one of the Newlands that was targeted for reclamation during the 1990s. Standard and adjusted Mediterranean desertification and land use (MEDALUS) approaches were applied for two time series (1984 and 2008). The main goals were achieved via: (a) identifying the most environmentally sensitive areas to desertification in the study area, (b) assessing the environmental sensitivity area indices (ESAIs) of 1984 and 2008 to determine the effects of land reclamation processes, (c) adjusting the MEDALUS factors for 2008 to obtain more reliable data at the local level, and (d) monitoring the ESAI change between 1984 and 2008 over the studied area. When the standard MEDALUS approach was applied to both 1984 and 2008, the ESAI results classified 100% and ∼78% of the study area as critically sensitive to desertification due to the impact of plant cover, respectively. In the adjusted version of the MEDALUS approach, new parameters were added to the soil quality indicator while irrigation water quality was considered as a new indicator. This approach was applied in 2008 and the results revealed that critical ESAI areas covered ∼89% of the study area. Since the Bustan 3 area is intensively cultivated, more attention is required for the most sensitive areas to desertification in order to achieve sustainable land use in such fragile agro-ecosystems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper presents an overview of the objectives and exemplary results of the FP 5 project “Spatial Indicators for European Nature Conservation” (SPIN). The SPIN project is focused on the development and testing of advanced classification methods and spatial indicators based on multisensor satellite data and GIS to accomplish monitoring and management tasks in the context of Natura 2000 and nature conservation. A representative selection of eight regional test areas covers a pan-European network and allows comparative investigations to provide accepted recommendations for regional and European nature conservation. The selected results of four case studies are presented and discussed. The range of work covers the production of regional and local habitat maps by object-oriented classification, a case-based reasoning method for change detection as a management support tool for planning and regulating local land use, the selection and application of structural indicators for the monitoring of Natura 2000 habitats and the downscaling and disaggregation of soil information. Results and the further implementation of presented methods are discussed in the conclusions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

[Display omitted] • Net radiation and latent heat increased but sensible heat decreased during 1981–2018. • Regional energy budget changes and their attributes were explored through modeling. • Larger energy exchange responses to land cover change occurred in association with reforestation. • Net radiation and latent heat tend to increase under climate warming. • The contribution of climate change to energy exchange was larger than that of vegetation restoration. Quantifying the impacts of vegetation restoration (VR) on energy exchange is essential for exploring climate-vegetation interactions. Due to the complexity of land–atmosphere energy exchange and limited observation networks, the influence of VR on the energy balance remains unclear. To improve the understanding of the energy budget change associated with VR in the Loess Plateau (LP), we performed a series of sensitivity simulation experiments using the Community Land Model within the Community Earth System Model, and the spatiotemporal responses of energy exchange to VR and the roles of VR in the variations in energy budget under climate change were investigated. The results showed that the land cover changes from 2000 to 2015 exerted a positive effect on net radiation (NR) and sensible heat (SH), and evident increases in annual mean NR and SH were found in the southeastern LP where larger-scale cropland was converted to grassland or forestland, with increasing magnitudes exceeding 2 W/m2. Latent heat (LH) increased only during May–July, particularly on the southern edge of LP. The increasing magnitudes of NR and LH under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 were larger than those under RCP4.5, with the greatest differences being approximately 4 W/m2 and 5 W/m2 during 2081–2100 for NR and LH, respectively. SH remained nearly stable under RCP4.5 and showed a weak decrease under RCP8.5. Under the same RCP, only slight differences in the energy budget components were detected between the land cover condition in 2015 and 2000, with the largest difference of 0.8 W/m2 in SH during 2021–2040. These results suggested that although both VR and climate warming exerted positive effects on NR, the impact of climate change was larger than that of VR in the LP, and a shift in the local surface energy budget toward LH would occur with climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We assessed stakeholders' perception of ES supply in Portugal using CLC land cover. • Drought regulation was ranked the most important ecosystem service. • We show the potential impact of different scenarios on ecosystem service supply. • Agriculture and forests/semi-natural areas provide two thirds of the total ES. • Agriculture was considered the most important contributor to climate regulation. Understanding where ecosystem services (ES) are and quantifying their supply using stakeholderś information is key for effective sustainable management. This paper describes a participatory methodology for extracting stakeholders' ES perception for continental Portugal based on land cover using analytical hierarchy process (AHP), matrix-based approach with data visualization techniques, and scenario analysis. Results show that drought regulation was the most valued ES by stakeholders and recreation was considered the least important. Results also show that the "Agricultural areas and "Forests and semi-natural areas" land cover classes provide about two-thirds of the total ES for the country. An "Economic development" scenario will yield negative values for all ES except recreation and food supply, whereas an "Environmental development" scenario will increase all ES, except food supply. Finally, a "Sustainable development" scenario, presents values between the previous two scenarios and is the best for food supply. This operational methodology for extracting information from stakeholders and to report information on the mapping and assessment of ES can be helpful for sustainable planning in Portugal and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Coastal urbanisation patterns were analysed for four dates in the last thirty years. • Area/edge, shape, and aggregation characteristics of built-up patches were mapped. • Spatial and temporal patterns were analysed on a distance-to-coastline gradient. • Impacts of urbanisation on land capability were mapped. • Landscape planning and management proposals were made based on the results. Natural and anthropogenic forces on Earth create changes in biophysical characteristics of landscapes in the forms of modifications or transformations. Since landscapes are composed of spatially configured patches of different land cover types, changes in the pattern composition and configuration may be used as indicators for identifying environmental trends and their underlying causes. To this end, pattern indices hold a strong potential to conceptualize landscape structure in many different ways. This study aims to analyse landscape changes in an urbanized coastal landscape in the eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey using pattern indices as development indicators. For this purpose, the spatial distribution of built-up areas was extracted for the years 1989, 1995, 2001, 2007 and 2019 using geo-referenced SPOT and Sentinel images. Eight landscape structure indices were calculated to demonstrate spatial and temporal diversity of area/edge, shape and aggregation characteristics of built-up patches. These indices are (1) class area (CA), (2) percentage of landscape (PL), (3) largest patch index (LPI), (4) edge density, (5) perimeter-area ratio (PARA), (6) fractal dimension (FRAC), (7) related circumscribing circle (RCC) and (8) percentage of like-adjacencies (PLADJ). The study area was divided into 215 grid-units to represent spatial diversity of development. The aforementioned indices were calculated separately for each of the units. The spatial distribution of built-up areas was also associated with land capability to assess land degradation trends. Results showed that much of the development occurred on Class I and II lands that are in fact prime agricultural areas. Results also suggest that the structure of building patches and the way that it changes vary between the coast and inland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Dynamics of Mangrove cover change of Indian Sundarban area was predicted. • Dense Mangrove and Open Mangrove forest are highly dynamic with each other. • MLP-Markov model showed human habitat will dominate the landscape in near future. • Landscape statistics analysis further confirmed the modelling results. Sundarban mangrove is the largest continuous mangrove forest in the world and is the habitat of an incredible amount of biodiversity. Biodiversity loss and degradation of this highly ecologically productive mangrove forest due to climate change will have a tremendous impact on the livelihood of the people living in the deltaic region. The present study was aimed to find out the dynamics of change in different land cover for the greater Sundarban region. The multi-temporal Landsat images were used to understand the dynamics in three decades from 1998 to 2018. The analysis revealed that Sundarban mangrove forest changed very insignificantly. The change between 1998 and 2008 was approximately 1.2%, i.e. around 26.2 km2, and the change between the year 2008 and 2018 was approximately 1.27%, which consists of 28 km2. However, the dynamics of open mangrove forest and dense mangrove forest were found very high. The human habitat and aquaculture were found as the most rapidly expanding land-use type in this landscape. Area under human habitat has increased approximately 80%, i.e. nearly 654 km2 between 1998 and 2018; area under aquaculture has increased approximately 116% (i.e. around 231 km2) between 1998 and 2008. The MLP-Markov Chain based modelling of land-use has shown an overwhelming increase in human habitat in near future. However, being situated in the close vicinity of dense human population of the city Kolkata, the mangrove habitat remained intact, which is largely due to great amount of conservation efforts that have been exercised by the Govt. and the local forest department. The landscape statistical analysis for understanding the ecological dynamics of every land cover types showed that in 2018, the human habitat became second dominant category in this study area. The aquaculture practice for high economic value has pushed down the native agricultural practice in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]