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• It was found that Korea's LCGC policy is characterized by high rebound and short duration. • Regard pilot policy of Low-carbon Green City as a quasi-natural experiment. • This article examines the effectiveness of Korea's carbon trading system policy. • The mitigation effect of LCGC policies on carbon emissions shows a regional pattern increasing from north to South. Climate change response is a long-term, stage-specific global challenge that necessitates ongoing research on its routes. Although previous research has examined policy planning and indicator development for a low-carbon transition based on a variety of macropolicies, more research is needed to determine whether such policies can help reduce carbon emissions and accelerate urban transitions. Based on 2015–2021 panel data covering 17 South Korean first-level administrative districts, we employ a propensity score matching-difference in difference (PSM-DID) model and a mediating effect model to address issues of interregional development faults and policy feasibility and to investigate the impacts of the low-carbon green city (LCGC) policy in different regions on urban carbon emissions. To address the development gap and policy feasibility across regions, this study investigates the mechanism and path of the effect of the LCGC policy on urban carbon dioxide emissions in various regions, ultimately incorporating local spatial autocorrelation (LSA) to investigate the characteristics of the differences at the spatial level. The findings demonstrate that (1) the present regulations effectively limit total urban carbon emissions but are characterized by strong rebound elasticity and a short period. (2) Energy use and renewable energy production have the greatest influence on reducing total urban carbon emissions. (3) The local spatial autocorrelation clustering characteristics present the clustering characteristics of being high in the east and low in the north. The HH agglomerations have the largest coverage and are mainly distributed in the southeast and southwest directions of the study area. The results of the study provide a decision-making basis and theoretical support for relevant decision-makers to formulate differentiated carbon emission reduction policies and to eliminate the current transition dilemma with a new research methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The YREB region is transforming from a natural river basin to a consumption-oriented economic belt. • The YREB region exacerbates the gap between the north and the south through interregional trade. • The PHH effect held in 2002 in the cross reach linkage, but had disappeared by 2012. • Consumption structure and carbon intensity drive the deceleration of interregional outsourcing. As the largest river in Asia with masses of population and industries along the riverside, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) produces tremendous carbon emissions. However, trade-induced environmental impacts of such a megaregion with multiple geographic linkages are always neglected in the river's environmental policies, even as it is expected to change dynamically in the context of a transition period. By incorporating the megaregion scale into the multiregional input and output framework, our main findings are as follows: (1) The YREB region transformed from a traditional river basin to a comprehensive consumption-oriented economic belt. The proportions of the YREB region's embodied emissions in local and international linkages are decreasing, while the proportions of that in cross reach and interregional linkages are increasing; (2) The YREB region exacerbates the gap between the north and the south by importing carbon emissions from the carbon-intensive north and exporting to the south with low emission intensity; (3) The Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) effect held in 2002 in the cross reach linkage, while disappeared in 2012 due to changes in development and consumption patterns. Through structural decomposition analysis, this study detects driving factors of embodied emissions changes in multi linkages, and provides coordinating mitigation actions for the environmental governance of large river basins with comprehensive economic linkages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]