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• SOC inversion models were established for various land-use in an arid mining area. • SOC spatiotemporal variability and its effect factors were analyzed. • Changes in vegetation and soil erosion dominate the spatial distribution of SOC. • Coal mining affects plant, terrain and soil erosion, then weakens SOC accumulation. Soil organic carbon (SOC) undergoes rapid changes due to human production activities, which have an impact on the land carbon cycle and ultimately global change. As one of the main human production activities, coal mining significantly impacts the soil carbon cycle. However, due to the lack of remote sensing modeling of soil carbon in mining areas, the spatio-temporal changes and driving mechanisms of SOC in mining areas remain unclear. Therefore, this study investigated and determined SOC data from 300 sampling points (depth of 0–20 cm) located in an arid mining area of China. Remote sensing images were then used to established a soil organic carbon density (SOCD) prediction model within the Random Forest (RF) model to achieve digital mapping of soil organic carbon stocks (SOCS). The spatiotemporal changes of SOCS were analyzed using SOCS digital mapping, and the influencing mechanism of SOCS was revealed using path analysis. The results showed that the constructed SOCD predictive model meets the demand for SOCD prediction (R2 ≥ 0.74, p < 0.01, RMSE ≤ 1.72 kg/m2). Under the combined influence of coal mining and land reclamation, the total amount of surface SOCS in the mining area exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 1990 (6.34 Tg) to 2021 (7.73 Tg), with an annual growth rate of 0.038 Tg/a. The spatial distribution of SOCS generally increased from southeast to northwest. Precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and land use were positively correlated to SOCS spatial distribution, while temperature, elevation, soil erosion, and mining intensity were negatively correlated to SOCS. The impact degree of factors on SOCS was as follows: NDVI > soil erosion > mining intensity > precipitation > elevation > land use > temperature. The negative impact of coal mining on SOCS was mainly indirect, through disturbance to elevation, vegetation, and soil erosion. The uneven ground subsidence and stretching caused by coal mining contribute to intensified soil erosion and vegetation degradation in the affected area, leading to a reduction in SOCS. However, SOCS did not decrease under high intensity mining, which was related to the increase in vegetation and the reduction in soil erosion in the mining area. In this study, a soil carbon prediction model was established based on remote sensing modeling to evaluate the temporal and spatial distribution of soil carbon in an arid mining area. The results can serve as valuable references for the scientific improvement of the ecological environment in mining areas, the rational planning of mining area construction, as well as low-carbon land reclamation and ecological compensation assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The feasibility of adding multi-temporal radar Sentinel-1A data to SOC prediction was explored. • Climate variables contributed the most to explaining SOC content variation. • In this ecosystem, RF and BRT models showed similar performance and produced similar SOC spatial distribution patterns. Soil organic carbon (SOC) has a large impact on soil quality and global climate change. It is therefore important to be able to predict SOC accurately to promote sustainable soil management. Although the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has many advantages and has been widely used in soil science research, it has rarely been used in previous SOC mapping studies based on remote sensing images. The purpose of this study was to investigate the ability of multi-temporal Sentinel-1A data in SOC prediction, by comparing the predictive performance of random forest (RF) and boosted regression tree (BRT) models in the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China. A set of 162 topsoil (0–20 cm) samples were taken and 15 environmental variables were obtained including land use, topography, climate, and remote sensing images (optical and SAR data). Using a cross-validation procedure to evaluate the performance of the models, three statistical indices were calculated. Overall, both RF and BRT models effectively predicted SOC content, exhibiting similar performance and producing similar spatial distribution patterns of SOC. The results showed that the addition of multi-temporal Sentinel-1A images improved prediction accuracy, with the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) improving by 9.0%, 8.3% and 13.5%, respectively. Furthermore, the combination of all environmental variables had the best prediction performance explaining 75% of SOC variation. The most important environmental variables explaining SOC variation were precipitation, elevation, and temperature. The multi-temporal Sentinel-1A data in RF and BRT models explained 9% and 7%, respectively. The results from our case study highlight the usefulness of multi-temporal Sentinel-1 data in SOC mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]