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Beef, among all foods, has the greatest environmental impact and is associated with several chronic diseases. Brazil is one of the largest consumers of meat in the world, on par with developed countries and, most of its greenhouse gas emissions stem from deforestation and agricultural activities. Therefore, this article aims to project the economic and environmental impacts of reducing beef consumption due to changes in household preferences and an increase in beef taxes, with and without a revenue neutral mechanism (subsidies applied to food, excluding meat). To analyze this, a dynamic interregional Computable General Equilibrium model was employed, incorporating a land use change module and accounting for substitution between different food items in both consumption and production structure across regions within the Brazilian Amazon, Matopiba, and the rest of Brazil. The results show that a 40% reduction in beef consumption distributed between 2022 and 2050 could prevent deforestation on an area of approximately 65,000 km2, potentially mitigating up to 2.8 GtCO₂e (a third of the world's potential mitigation from dietary changes according to the UN). In the scenario with subsidies, the reduction in deforestation is smaller due to incentives provided to certain commodities that use pasture. Preference changes could have a virtually zero impact on GDP by 2050. Conversely, increased beef taxes could result in an overall rise in costs, leading to a negative impact on exports and GDP (subsidies only attenuate). In all scenarios, regional impacts would be heterogeneous, particularly affecting regions highly dependent on the cattle and beef sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Brazil is an active player in the CDM business, even playing host to the first CDM project ever registered. Although the majority of the CDM actions which have been developed to date in Brazil are in the energy sector, an analysis of Brazil''s emissions profile demonstrates that the energy sector does not have a significant share of the country''s emissions. Rather that 25% and 56% of the emissions stem from Agriculture and Land Use activities, respectively. In the light of this profile, this paper re-evaluates Brazil''s national Green House Gas (GHG) matrix, and attempts to highlight the potential of the Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) CDM projects. An analysis of potential actions for improved penetration of LULUCF projects is presented, alongside key recommendations for future actions. This paper outlines how and why LULUCF projects can become the cornerstone of sustainable development policy in the North and North East region of Brazil, two of the main less developed regions in the country, totalling 62% of the country''s land mass. A focus is made on three A/R projects recently development in Brazil. Through these case studies, an attempt is made to outline potential guidelines for future actions. This paper demonstrates that A/R projects have a significant potential impact on local and rural development in Brazil today. They have the potential to promote the sustainable use of forestry and soil resources. From the analysis it is clear that satisfying local community needs and commitments is a necessary prerequisite to achieving a situation where the risks associated with the issuing of the CER''s (Certified Emission Reductions) could be better managed and also in line with enhanced support from the national authorities (as part of local development plans). The paper concludes that Brazil has significant potential to develop LULUCF CDM projects and that these projects can promote sustainable development through direct impact on the sustainable livelihoods of local communities over the long-term. It is recommended, in line with Brazil''s current emission profile, that to realise this potential it is necessary to design a new relationship model between the key players involved in the CDM process: government agents, local stakeholders, national academia and private parties. Further it is necessary for the Federal Government to foster the LULUCF projects. Supporting actions include defining clear policies that minimise risk and/or reduce perceived risk and the promotion of multi-stakeholder involvement in the CDM project development process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]