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Adaptively managing marine protected areas (MPAs) requires accurately assessing whether established MPAs are achieving their goals of protecting and conserving biomass, especially for harvested populations. Ecological MPA assessments commonly compare inside of the MPA to a reference point outside of and/or before implementation (i.e., calculating "response ratios"). Yet, MPAs are not simple ecological experiments; by design, protected populations interact with those outside, and population dynamic responses can be nonlinear. This complicates assessment interpretations. Here, we used a two-patch population model to explore how MPA response ratios (outside-inside, before-after, and before-after-control-impact [BACI]) for fished populations behave under different conditions, like whether the population is receiving a sustainable larval supply or if it is declining despite protection from harvest. We then conducted a Bayesian evaluation of MPA effects on fish and invertebrate populations based on data collected from 82 published studies on 264 no-take MPAs worldwide, using the results of an earlier global meta-analysis as priors. We considered the effects of calculating different summary metrics on these results, drawing on the theoretical insights from our population model as a comparative framework. We demonstrate that not all response ratio comparison types provide the same information: For example, outside-inside and BACI comparisons can fail to detect population decline within MPAs, whereas before-after comparisons likely detect that pattern. Considering these limitations, we nonetheless found that MPAs globally are producing positive outcomes, with on average greater biomass, density, and organism size within their boundaries than reference sites. However, only a small portion of studies (18 of 82) provided the temporal data necessary to determine that protection, on average, has led to increased abundance of populations within MPAs over time. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the underlying system dynamics when assessing MPA effects. Assuming that large outside-inside or BACI response ratios always reflect large and net positive conservation effects may lead to misleading conclusions, we recommend that: (1) when assessing specific MPA effects, empirical findings be considered alongside theoretical knowledge relevant to that MPA system, and (2) management should respond to the local conditions and outcomes, rather than a blanket expectation for positive MPA effects., (© 2024 The Ecological Society of America.)

Shrinking saline lakes provide irreplaceable habitat for waterbird species globally. Disentangling the effects of wetland habitat loss from other drivers of waterbird population dynamics is critical for protecting these species in the face of unprecedented changes to saline lake ecosystems, ideally through decision-making frameworks that identify effective management options and their potential outcomes. Here, we develop a framework to assess the effects of hypothesized population drivers and identify potential future outcomes of plausible management scenarios on a saline lake-reliant waterbird species. We use 36 years of monitoring data to quantify the effects of environmental conditions on the population size of a regionally important breeding colony of American white pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) at Great Salt Lake, Utah, US, then forecast colony abundance under various management scenarios. We found that low lake levels, which allow terrestrial predators access to the colony, are probable drivers of recent colony declines. Without local management efforts, we predicted colony abundance could likely decline approximately 37.3% by 2040, although recent colony observations suggest population declines may be more extreme than predicted. Results from our population projection scenarios suggested that proactive approaches to preventing predator colony access and reversing saline lake declines are crucial for the persistence of the Great Salt Lake pelican colony. Increasing wetland habitat and preventing predator access to the colony together provided the most effective protection, increasing abundance 145.4% above projections where no management actions are taken, according to our population projection scenarios. Given the importance of water levels to the persistence of island-nesting colonial species, proactive approaches to reversing saline lake declines could likely benefit pelicans as well as other avian species reliant on these unique ecosystems., (© 2024 The Ecological Society of America. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)

Natural disturbance-based management (NDBM) is hypothesized to maintain managed forest ecosystem integrity by reducing differences between natural and managed forests. The effectiveness of this approach often entails local comparisons of species composition or diversity for a variety of biota from managed and unmanaged forests. Understory vegetation is regularly the focus of such comparison because of its importance in nutrient cycling, forest regeneration, and for wildlife. However, larger scale comparisons between regions with distinct species assemblages may require a trait-based approach to better understand understory responses to disturbance. We compared the long-term effects of retention harvesting on understory vegetation in two large experimental study sites located in eastern and western regions of the Canadian boreal forest. These sites included the Sylviculture en Aménagement Forestier Ecosystémique (SAFE) experiment and the Ecosystem Management Emulating Natural Disturbance (EMEND) experiment, located in the eastern and western regions of Canada, respectively. EMEND and SAFE share common boreal understory species but have distinct tree communities, soils, and climate. Both experiments were designed to evaluate how increasing tree retention after harvest affects biodiversity. Here, we examined taxonomic richness, functional diversity, and functional composition (using community trait mean values) of understory plant communities, and also examine intraspecific trait variability (ITV) for five species common and abundant in both experiments. We observed the limited impacts of retention level on richness, functional diversity, and functional composition of understory plants 20 years postharvest. However, ITV of leaf morphological traits varied between retention levels within each experiment, depending on the species identity. Common species had different functional responses to retention level, showing species-specific reactions to environmental variation. Our result suggests that understory plant communities in the boreal forest achieve resilience to disturbance both in terms of interspecific and intraspecific functional trait diversity. Such diversity may be key to maintaining understory biodiversity in the face of future disturbances and environmental change. Our results reveal the significance of ITV in plant communities for understanding responses to forest harvesting and the importance of choosing appropriate traits when studying species responses to the environment., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

The release of biological control agents has been an important means of controlling invasive species for over 150 years. While these releases have led to the sustainable control of over 250 invasive pest and weed species worldwide, a minority have caused environmental harm. A growing recognition of the risks of biological control led to a focus on risk assessment beginning in the 1990s along with a precipitous decline in releases. While this new focus greatly improved the safety of biological control, it came at the cost of lost opportunities to solve environmental problems associated with invasive species. A framework that incorporates benefits and risks of biological control is thus needed to understand the net environmental effects of biological control releases. We introduce such a framework, using native biodiversity as the common currency for both benefits and risks. The model is based on interactions among four categories of organisms: (1) the biological control agent, (2) the invasive species (pest or weed) targeted by the agent, (3) one or more native species that stand to benefit from the control of the target species, and (4) one or more native species that are at risk of being harmed by the released biological control agent. Conservation values of the potentially benefited and harmed native species are incorporated as well, and they are weighted according to three axes: vulnerability to extinction, the ecosystem services provided, and cultural significance. Further, we incorporate the potential for indirect risks to native species, which we consider will result mainly from the ecological process of agent enrichment that may occur if the agent exploits but does not control the target pest or weed. We illustrate the use of this framework by retrospectively analyzing the release of the vedalia beetle, Novius (= Rodolia) cardinalis, to control the cottony cushion scale, Icerya purchasi, in the Galapagos Islands. While the framework is particularly adaptable to biological control releases in natural areas, it can also be used in managed settings, where biological control protects native species through the reduction of pesticide use., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Global policies increasingly focus on the importance of maintaining or improving the integrity of ecosystems, but defining, assessing, and monitoring integrity in marine protected areas (MPAs) remains a challenge. In this paper, we conceptualized ecological integrity along dimensions of heterogeneity and stability containing seven components: physical structure, diversity, function, persistence, resistance, resilience, and natural variability. Through a structured literature search, we identified indicators and metrics used for quantifying ecosystem status components in the marine environment, then reviewed MPA management plans worldwide for inclusion of these components. We evaluated 202 papers applying 83 ecological indicators built from 72 metrics. Ecosystem components were most comprehensively addressed by metrics of taxa presence, organisms count, and area occupied by benthic organisms, and community structure, biomass, and percent cover indicators. Of the 557 MPA management plans we reviewed globally, 93% used at least one ecosystem status term or its synonym in an ecologically relevant context, but 39% did not address any components of stability. In particular, resistance was mentioned in only 1% of management plans, but in some cases it may be inferred from indicators and metrics used to track the best addressed component in management plans, diversity. Plans for MPAs with both an ecological/biological purpose and a research and education purpose contained ecosystem status terms more frequently than other plans, suggesting that engagement with the scientific community may have improved the application of these terms. An improved understanding of how to operationalize and measure ecological integrity can help MPA monitoring and management., (© 2024 His Majesty the King in Right of Canada. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Canada.)

Spatially explicit prioritization of invasive species control is a complex issue, requiring consideration of trade-offs between immediate and future benefits. This study aimed to prioritize management efforts to account for current and future threats from widespread invasions and examine the strength of the trade-off between these different management goals. As a case study, we identified spatially explicit management priorities for the widespread invasion of introduced willow into riparian and wetland habitats across a 102,145-km 2 region in eastern Australia. In addition to targeting places where willow threatens biodiversity now, a second set of management goals was to limit reinfestation and further spread that could occur via two different mechanisms (downstream and by wind). A model of likely willow distribution across the region was combined with spatial data for biodiversity (native vegetation, threatened species and communities), ecological conditions, management costs, and two potential dispersal layers. We used systematic conservation planning software (Zonation) to prioritize where willow management should be focussed across more than 100,000 catchments for a range of different scenarios that reflected different weights between management goals. For willow invasion, we found that we could prioritize willow management to reduce the future threat of dispersal downstream with little reduction in the protection of biodiversity. However, accounting for future threats from wind dispersal resulted in a stronger trade-off with protection of threatened biodiversity. The strongest trade-off was observed when both dispersal mechanisms were considered together. This study shows that considering current and future goals together offers the potential to substantially improve conservation outcomes for invasive species management. Our approach also informs land managers about the relative trade-offs among different management goals under different control scenarios, helping to make management decisions more transparent. This approach can be used for other widespread invasive species to help improve invasive species management decisions., (© 2024 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Scientists increasingly draw on fishers' ecological knowledge (FEK) to gain a better understanding of fish biology and ecology, and inform options for fisheries management. We report on a study of FEK among fishers along the Lower Ucayali River in Peru, a region of exceptional productivity and diversity, which is also a major supplier of fish to the largest city in the Peruvian Amazon. Given a lack of available scientific information on stock status, we sought to identify temporal changes in the composition and size of exploited species by interviewing fishers from 18 communities who vary in years of fishing experience since the mid-1950s. We develop four FEK-based indicators to assess changes in the fish assemblage and compare findings with landings data. We find an intensification of fishing gear deployed over time and spatiotemporal shifts in the fish assemblage and reported declines in species weight, which point to a fishing-down process with declines across multiple species. This finding is reflected in a shifting baseline among our participants, whereby younger generations of fishers have different expectations regarding the distribution and size of species. Our study points to the importance of spillover effects from the nearby Pacaya-Samira National Reserve and community initiatives to support the regional fishery. Reference to fishers' knowledge also suggests that species decline is likely underreported in aggregated landings data. Despite the dynamism and diversity of Amazonian floodplain fisheries, simple FEK-based indicators can provide useful information for understanding fishing-induced changes in the fish assemblage. Fishers hold valuable knowledge for fishery management and conservation initiatives in the region., (© 2024 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Evaluating the impacts of farming systems on biodiversity is increasingly important given the need to stem biodiversity loss, decrease fossil fuel dependency, and maintain ecosystem services benefiting farmers. We recorded woody and herbaceous plant species diversity, composition, and abundance in 43 wetland-adjacent prairie remnants beside crop fields managed using conventional, minimum tillage, organic, or perennial cover (wildlife-friendly) land management in the Prairie Pothole Region. We used a hierarchical framework to estimate diversity at regional and local scales (gamma, alpha), and how these are related through species turnover (beta diversity). We tested the expectation that gamma richness/evenness and beta diversity of all plants would be higher in remnants adjacent to perennial cover and organic fields than in conventional and minimum tillage fields. We expected the same findings for plants providing ecosystem services (bee-pollinated species) and disservices (introduced species). We predicted similar relative effects of land management on alpha diversity, but with the expectation that the benefits of organic farming would decrease with increasing grassland in surrounding landscapes. Gamma richness and evenness of all plants were highest for perennial cover, followed by minimum tillage, organic, and conventional sites. Bee-pollinated species followed a similar pattern for richness, but for evenness organic farming came second, after perennial cover sites, followed by minimum tillage and conventional. For introduced species, organic sites had the highest gamma richness and evenness. Grassland amount moderated the effect of land management type on all plants and bee-pollinated plant richness, but not as expected. The richness of organic sites increased with the amount of grassland in the surrounding landscape. Conversely, for conventional sites, richness increased as the amount of grassland in the landscape declined. Our results are consistent with the expectation that adopting wildlife-friendly land management practices can benefit biodiversity at regional and local scales, in particular the use of perennial cover to benefit plant diversity at regional scales. At more local extents, organic farming increased plant richness, but only when sufficient grassland was available in the surrounding landscape; organic farms also had the highest beta diversity for all plants and bee-pollinated plants. Maintaining native cover in agroecosystems, in addition to low-intensity farming practices, could sustain plant biodiversity and facilitate important ecosystem services., (© 2024 His Majesty the King in Right of Canada and The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada.)

Habitat loss is affecting many species, including the southern mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population in western North America. Over the last half century, this threatened caribou population's range and abundance have dramatically contracted. An integrated population model was used to analyze 51 years (1973-2023) of demographic data from 40 southern mountain caribou subpopulations to assess the effectiveness of population-based recovery actions at increasing population growth. Reducing potential limiting factors on threatened caribou populations offered a rare opportunity to identify the causes of decline and assess methods of recovery. Southern mountain caribou abundance declined by 51% between 1991 and 2023, and 37% of subpopulations were functionally extirpated. Wolf reduction was the only recovery action that consistently increased population growth when applied in isolation, and combinations of wolf reductions with maternal penning or supplemental feeding provided rapid growth but were applied to only four subpopulations. As of 2023, recovery actions have increased the abundance of southern mountain caribou by 52%, compared to a simulation with no interventions. When predation pressure was reduced, rapid population growth was observed, even under contemporary climate change and high levels of habitat loss. Unless predation is reduced, caribou subpopulations will continue to be extirpated well before habitat conservation and restoration can become effective., (© 2024 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near-real-time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program. This product produces weekly forecasts for a moving window of 6 months at a resolution of ~5 km based on quantile regression forests. The forecasts show superior skill at predicting disease risk on withheld survey data from 2012 to 2020 compared with predecessor forecast systems, with the biggest improvements shown for predicting disease risk at mid- to high-disease levels. Most of the prediction uncertainty arises from model uncertainty, so prediction accuracy and precision do not improve substantially with shorter lead times. This result arises because many predictor variables cannot be accurately forecasted, which is a common challenge across ecosystems. Weekly forecasts and scenarios can be explored through an online decision support tool and data explorer, co-developed with end-user groups to improve use and understanding of ecological forecasts. The models provide near-real-time disease risk assessments and allow users to refine predictions and assess intervention scenarios. This work advances the field of ecological forecasting with real-world complexities and, in doing so, better supports near-term decision making for coral reef ecosystem managers and stakeholders. Secondarily, we identify clear needs and provide recommendations to further enhance our ability to forecast coral disease risk., (© 2024 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Understanding how human-modified landscapes maintain biodiversity and provide ecosystem services is crucial for establishing conservation practices. Given that responses to land-use are species-specific, it is crucial to understand how land-use changes may shape patterns of species diversity and persistence in human-modified landscapes. Here, we used a comprehensive data set on bird distribution from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to understand how species richness and individual occurrences of frugivorous bird species responded to land-use spatial predictors and, subsequently, assess how ecological traits and phylogeny modulated these responses. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we reveal that the richness of frugivorous birds was positively associated with the amount of native forest and negatively with both agriculture and pasture amount at the landscape scale. Conversely, the effect of these predictors on species occurrence and ecological traits was highly variable and presented a weak phylogenetic signal. Furthermore, land-use homogenization (i.e., the conversion of forest to pasture or agriculture) led to pervasive consequences for forest-dependent bird species, whereas several generalist species thrived in deforested areas, replacing those sensitive to habitat disturbances., (© 2024 The Ecological Society of America.)

Animals must track resources over relatively fine spatial and temporal scales, particularly in disturbance-mediated systems like grasslands. Grassland birds respond to habitat heterogeneity by dispersing among sites within and between years, yet we know little about how they make post-dispersal settlement decisions. Many methods exist to quantify the resource selection of mobile taxa, but the habitat data used in these models are frequently not collected at the same location or time that individuals were present. This spatiotemporal misalignment may lead to incorrect interpretations and adverse conservation outcomes, particularly in dynamic systems. To investigate the extent to which spatially and temporally dynamic vegetation conditions and topography drive grassland bird settlement decisions, we integrated multiple data sources from our study site to predict slope, vegetation height, and multiple metrics of vegetation cover at any point in space and time within the temporal and spatial scope of our study. We paired these predictions with avian mark-resight data for 8 years at the Konza Prairie Biological Station in NE Kansas to evaluate territory selection for Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum), Dickcissels (Spiza americana), and Eastern Meadowlarks (Sturnella magna). Each species selected different types and amounts of herbaceous vegetation cover, but all three species preferred relatively flat areas with less than 6% shrub cover and less than 1% tree cover. We evaluated several scenarios of woody vegetation removal and found that, with a targeted approach, the simulated removal of just one isolated tree in the uplands created up to 14 ha of grassland bird habitat. This study supports growing evidence that small amounts of woody encroachment can fragment landscapes, augmenting conservation threats to grassland systems. Conversely, these results demonstrate that drastic increases in bird habitat area could be achieved through relatively efficient management interventions. The results and approaches reported pave the way for more efficient conservation efforts in grasslands and other systems through spatiotemporal alignment of habitat with animal behaviors and simulated impacts of management interventions., (© 2024 The Ecological Society of America.)

Anthropogenic climate change, land use modifications, and alien species invasions are major threats to global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are regarded as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, however, few studies have quantified the vulnerability of PAs to these global change factors together. Here, we overlay the risks of climate change, land use change, and alien vertebrate establishment within boundaries of a total of 1020 PAs with different administrative levels in China to quantify their vulnerabilities. Our results show that 56.6% of PAs will face at least one stress factor, and 21 PAs are threatened under the highest risk with three stressors simultaneously. PAs designed for forest conservation in Southwest and South China are most sensitive to the three global change factors. In addition, wildlife and wetland PAs are predicted to mainly experience climate change and high land use anthropogenetic modifications, and many wildlife PAs can also provide suitable habitats for alien vertebrate establishment. Our study highlights the urgent need for proactive conservation and management planning of Chinese PAs by considering different global change factors together., (© 2023 The Ecological Society of America.)

Green infrastructure's capacity to mitigate urban environmental problems, like heat island effects and excessive stormwater runoff, is partially governed by its plant community. Traditionally, green infrastructure design has focused on engineered aspects, such as substrate and drainage, rather than on the properties of its living components. Since the functioning of these plant assemblages is controlled by ecophysiological processes that differ by species, the identity and relative abundance of the species used will influence green infrastructure performance. We used trait-based modeling to derive principles for the effective composition of green infrastructure plant assemblages, parameterizing our model using the vegetation and ecophysiological traits of the species within New York City rain gardens. Focusing on two plant traits that influence rain garden performance, leaf surface temperature and stomatal conductance, we simulated the cumulative temperature and transpiration for plant communities of differing species composition and diversity. The outcomes of the model demonstrate that plant species composition, species identity, selection effects, and interspecific complementarity increase green infrastructure performance in much the way biodiversity affects ecosystem functioning in natural systems. More diverse assemblages resulted in more consistent transpiration and surface temperatures, with the former showing a positive, saturating curve as diversity increased. While the dominant factors governing individual species leaf temperature were abiotic, transpiration was more influential at the community level, suggesting that plants within diverse communities may be cooler in aggregate than any individual species on its own. This implies green infrastructure should employ a variety of vegetation; particularly plants with different statures and physical attributes, such as low-growing ground covers, erect herbaceous perennials, and shrubs., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

As a leading cause of forest health degradation, non-native invasive plant species are a key focus for many forest management and conservation efforts. These efforts come at a high price for resource-limited agencies and organizations making cost-effectiveness an important objective of invasion response plans. In this paper, we present an approach to guide the prioritization of locations for invasion management using species distribution models that account for the non-equilibrium of invasive species distributions and use readily available land use data as the primary explanatory variables. This approach takes advantage of the relatively high spatial resolution, as well as the broad, continuous geographic coverage, of land use data to provide results at a landscape scale relevant to practitioners responsible for invasive species management. In our example from northern Virginia, we simultaneously modeled a suite of invasive plant species to identify common indicators of invasion. We found that the proportions of surrounding non-forested land use types (grasses, crops, and development) were the most common and strongest indicators of invasion risk. These outcomes can guide managers of large protected areas to focus on major divides between forest and non-forest land over linear disturbances. We also found useful species-specific traits that can inform specific management actions. Additionally, we demonstrate through a case study how organizations that manage multiple smaller properties can take advantage of the projected distribution maps when considering acquiring or administering properties., (© 2023 Smithsonian Institution. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)

As β-diversity can be seen as a proxy of ecological connections among species assemblages, modeling the decay of similarity in species composition at increasing distance may help elucidate spatial patterns of connectivity and local- to large-scale processes driving community assembly within a marine region. This, in turn, may provide invaluable information for setting ecologically coherent networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) in which protected communities are potentially interrelated and can mutually sustain against environmental perturbations. However, field studies investigating changes in β-diversity patterns at a range of spatial scales and in relation to disturbance are scant, limiting our understanding of how spatial ecological connections among marine communities may affect their recovery dynamics. We carried out a manipulative experiment simulating a strong physical disturbance on subtidal rocky reefs at several locations spanning >1000 km of coast in the Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea) and compared β-diversity patterns and decay of similarity with distance and time by current transport between undisturbed and experimentally disturbed macrobenthic assemblages to shed light on connectivity processes and scales involved in recovery. In contrast to the expectation that very local-scale processes, such as vegetative regrowth and larval supply from neighboring undisturbed assemblages, might be the major determinants of recovery in disturbed patches, we found that connectivity mediated by currents at larger spatial scales strongly contributed to shape community reassembly after disturbance. Across our study sites in the Adriatic Sea, β-diversity patterns suggested that additional protected sites that matched hotspots of propagule exchange could increase the complementarity and strengthen the ecological connectivity throughout the MPA network. More generally, conditional to habitat distribution and selection of sites of high conservation priority (e.g., biodiversity hotspots), setting network internode distance within 100-150 km, along with sizing no-take zones to cover at least 5 km of coast, would help enhance the potential connectivity of Mediterranean subtidal rocky reef assemblages from local to large scale. These results can help improve conservation planning to achieve the goals of promoting ecological connectivity within MPA networks and enhancing their effectiveness in protecting marine communities against rapidly increasing natural and anthropogenic disturbances., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Conservation programs around the world aim to balance social equity, economic efficiency, and conservation outcomes. Tradeoffs among these three objectives necessarily exist but have been quantified in only a handful of systems. Here, we use a multi-objective mathematical optimization model in a large, water-limited river basin to quantify these tradeoffs in a freshwater payment for ecosystem services (PES) program aimed at establishing environmental flows (e-flows). Across a range of budgetary and future climate scenarios, we find that tradeoffs between social equity and conservation outcomes are small. We also show that payment schemes in which incentives are allocated to a single water use sector are much less cost-effective than schemes in which incentives are allocated among multiple sectors. Thus, allocating payments equally among agricultural, municipal, and industrial sectors can be both more equitable and more cost-effective. Overall, our results illustrate how some carefully designed conservation programs may be able to achieve a triple bottom line of social equity, economic efficiency, and conservation effectiveness., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia-areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention-using climate metrics. We explore four aspects of climate-smart conservation planning: (1) climate model ensembles; (2) multiple emission scenarios; (3) climate metrics; and (4) approaches to identifying climate refugia. We illustrate this framework in the Western Pacific Ocean, but it is equally applicable to terrestrial systems. We found that all aspects of climate-smart conservation planning considered affected the configuration of spatial plans. The choice of climate metrics and approaches to identifying refugia have large effects in the resulting climate-smart spatial plans, whereas the choice of climate models and emission scenarios have smaller effects. As the configuration of spatial plans depended on climate metrics used, a spatial plan based on a single measure of climate change (e.g., warming) will not necessarily be robust against other measures of climate change (e.g., ocean acidification). We therefore recommend using climate metrics most relevant for the biodiversity and region considered based on a single or multiple climate drivers. To include the uncertainty associated with different climate futures, we recommend using multiple climate models (i.e., an ensemble) and emission scenarios. Finally, we show that the approaches we used to identify climate refugia feature trade-offs between: (1) the degree to which they are climate-smart, and (2) their efficiency in meeting conservation targets. Hence, the choice of approach will depend on the relative value that stakeholders place on climate adaptation. By using this framework, protected areas can be designed with improved longevity and thus safeguard biodiversity against current and future climate change. We hope that the proposed climate-smart framework helps transition conservation planning toward climate-smart approaches., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Conservation decisions are often made in the face of uncertainty because the urgency to act can preclude delaying management while uncertainty is resolved. In this context, adaptive management is attractive, allowing simultaneous management and learning. An adaptive program design requires the identification of critical uncertainties that impede the choice of management action. Quantitative evaluation of critical uncertainty, using the expected value of information, may require more resources than are available in the early stages of conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate the use of a qualitative index to the value of information (QVoI) to prioritize which sources of uncertainty to reduce regarding the use of prescribed fire to benefit Eastern Black Rails (Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis), Yellow Rails (Coterminous noveboracensis), and Mottled Ducks (Anas fulvigula; hereafter, focal species) in high marshes of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Prescribed fire has been used as a management tool in Gulf of Mexico high marshes throughout the last 30+ years; however, effects of periodic burning on the focal species and the optimal conditions for burning marshes to improve habitat remain unknown. We followed a structured decision-making framework to develop conceptual models, which we then used to identify sources of uncertainty and articulate alternative hypotheses about prescribed fire in high marshes. We used QVoI to evaluate the sources of uncertainty based on their Magnitude, Relevance for decision-making, and Reducibility. We found that hypotheses related to the optimal fire return interval and season were the highest priorities for study, whereas hypotheses related to predation rates and interactions among management techniques were lowest. These results suggest that learning about the optimal fire frequency and season to benefit the focal species might produce the greatest management benefit. In this case study, we demonstrate that QVoI can help managers decide where to apply limited resources to learn which specific actions will result in a higher likelihood of achieving the desired management objectives. Further, we summarize the strengths and limitations of QVoI and outline recommendations for its future use for prioritizing research to reduce uncertainty about system dynamics and the effects of management actions., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)

Trophic rewilding aims to promote biodiverse self-sustaining ecosystems through the restoration of ecologically important taxa and the trophic interactions and cascades they propagate. How rewilding effects manifest across broad temporal scales will determine ecosystem states; however, our understanding of post-rewilding dynamics across longer time periods is limited. Here we show that the restoration of a megaherbivore, the African savannah elephant (Loxodonta africana), promotes landscape openness (i.e., various measures of vegetation composition/complexity) and modifies fauna habitat and that these effects continue to manifest up to 92 years after reintroduction. We conducted a space-for-time floristic survey and assessment of 17 habitat attributes (e.g., floristic diversity and cover, ground wood, tree hollows) across five comparable nature reserves in South African savannah, where elephants were reintroduced between 1927 and 2003, finding that elephant reintroduction time was positively correlated with landscape openness and some habitat attributes (e.g., large-sized tree hollows) but negatively associated with others (e.g., large-sized coarse woody debris). We then indexed elephant site occurrence between 2006 and 2018 using telemetry data and found positive associations between site occurrence and woody plant densities. Taken alongside the longer-term space-for-time survey, this suggests that elephants are attracted to dense vegetation in the short term and that this behavior increases landscape openness in the long term. Our results suggest that trophic rewilding with elephants helps promote a semi-open ecosystem structure of high importance for African biodiversity. More generally, our results suggest that megafauna restoration represents a promising tool to curb Earth's recent ecological losses and highlights the importance of considering long-term ecological responses when designing and managing rewilding projects., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species' conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., neighborhood-scale) with low genetic diversity, further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity and developed a statistical model for microsatellite data to robustly estimate these values for hierarchically nested populations. We found that 41 of 224 neighborhood-scale clusters had low genetic diversity, 23 of which were coupled with documented local population trend decline. We also found evidence of cross-scale low genetic diversity in the small and isolated Washington population, unlikely to be reversed through typical local management actions alone. The combination of low genetic diversity and a declining population suggests relatively high conservation concern. Our findings could further facilitate conservation action prioritization in combination with population trend assessments and (or) local information, and act as a base-line of genetic diversity for future comparison. Importantly, the approach we used is broadly applicable across taxa., (© 2022 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project that boreal caribou population growth rates will change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk., (© 2023 His Majesty the King in Right of Canada and The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Natural Resources.)

Monitoring trends in animal populations in arid regions is challenging due to remoteness and low population densities. However, detecting species' tracks or signs is an effective survey technique for monitoring population trends across large spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we developed a simulation framework to evaluate the performance of alternative track-based monitoring designs at detecting change in species distributions in arid Australia. We collated presence-absence records from 550 2-ha track-based plots for 11 vertebrates over 13 years and fitted ensemble species distribution models to predict occupancy in 2018. We simulated plausible changes in species' distributions over the next 15 years and, with estimates of detectability, simulated monitoring to evaluate the statistical power of three alternative monitoring scenarios: (1) where surveys were restricted to existing 2-ha plots, (2) where surveys were optimized to target all species equally, and (3) where surveys were optimized to target two species of conservation concern. Across all monitoring designs and scenarios, we found that power was higher when detecting increasing occupancy trends compared to decreasing trends owing to the relatively low levels of initial occupancy. Our results suggest that surveying 200 of the existing plots annually (with a small subset resurveyed twice within a year) will have at least an 80% chance of detecting 30% declines in occupancy for four of the five invasive species modeled and one of the six native species. This increased to 10 of the 11 species assuming larger (50%) declines. When plots were positioned to target all species equally, power improved slightly for most compared to the existing survey network. When plots were positioned to target two species of conservation concern (crest-tailed mulgara and dusky hopping mouse), power to detect 30% declines increased by 29% and 31% for these species, respectively, at the cost of reduced power for the remaining species. The effect of varying survey frequency depended on its trade-off with the number of sites sampled and requires further consideration. Nonetheless, our research suggests that track-based surveying is an effective and logistically feasible approach to monitoring broad-scale occupancy trends in desert species with both widespread and restricted distributions., (© 2022 Commonwealth of Australia. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

To be able to protect biodiversity in coming decades, conservation strategies need to consider what sites will be important for species not just today but also in the future. Different methods have been proposed to identify places that will be important for species in the future. Two of the most frequently used methods, ecological niche modeling and climate resilience, have distinct aims. The former focuses on identifying the suitable environmental conditions for species, thus protecting the "actor," namely, the species, whereas the latter seeks to safeguard the "stage," or the landscape in which species occur. We used the two methods to identify climate refugia for 258 forest vertebrates under short- and long-term climatic changes in a biodiversity hotspot, the Appalachian ecoregion of the United States. We also evaluated the spatial congruence of the two approaches for a possible conservation application, that of protecting 30% of the Appalachian region, in line with recent national and international policy recommendations. We detected weak positive correlations between resilience scores and baseline vertebrate richness, estimated with ecological niche models for historical (baseline) climatic conditions. The correlations were stronger for amphibians and mammals than for birds and reptiles. Under climate change scenarios, the correlations between estimated vertebrate richness and resilience were also weakly positive; a positive correlation was detected only for amphibians. Locations with estimated future gain of suitable climatic conditions for vertebrates showed low correlation with resilience. Overall, our results indicate that climate resilience and ecological niche modeling approaches capture different characteristics of projected distributional changes of Appalachian vertebrates. A climate resilience (the stage) approach could be more effective in safeguarding species with low dispersal abilities, whereas an ecological niche modeling (the actor) approach could be more suitable for species with long-distance dispersal capacity because they may be more broadly impacted by climate and less sensitive to geophysical features captured by a climate resilience approach., (© 2022 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Agri-environment schemes (AESs), ecological focus areas (EFAs), and organic farming are the main tools of the common agricultural policy (CAP) to counteract the dramatic decline of farmland biodiversity in Europe. However, their effectiveness is repeatedly doubted because it seems to vary when measured at the field-versus-landscape level and to depend on the regional environmental and land-use context. Understanding the heterogeneity of their effectiveness is thus crucial to developing management recommendations that maximize their efficacy. Using ensemble species distribution models and spatially explicit field-level information on crops grown, farming practice (organic/conventional), and applied AES/EFA from the Integrated Administration and Control System, we investigated the contributions of five groups of measures (buffer areas, cover crops, extensive grassland management, fallow land, and organic farming) to habitat suitability for 15 farmland bird species in the Mulde River Basin, Germany. We used a multiscale approach to identify the scale of effect of the selected measures. Using simulated land-use scenarios, we further examined how breeding habitat suitability would change if the measures were completely removed and if their adoption by farmers increased to meet conservation-informed targets. Buffer areas, fallow land, and extensive grassland were beneficial measures for most species, but cover crops and organic farming had contrasting effects across species. While different measures acted at different spatial scales, our results highlight the importance of land-use management at the landscape level-at which most measures had the strongest effect. We found that the current level of adoption of the measures delivers only modest gains in breeding habitat suitability. However, habitat suitability improved for the majority of species when the implementation of the measures was increased, suggesting that they could be effective conservation tools if higher adoption levels were reached. The heterogeneity of responses across species and spatial scales indicated that a mix of different measures, applied widely across the agricultural landscape, would likely maximize the benefits for biodiversity. This can only be achieved if the measures in the future CAP will be cooperatively designed in a regionally targeted way to improve their attractiveness for farmers and widen their uptake., (© 2022 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for the management and conservation of imperiled species. However, many at-risk species are rare and characterized by limited data on their spatial distribution and habitat relationships. This has led to the development of SDMs that integrate multiple types and sources of data to leverage more information and provide improved predictions of habitat associations. We developed a novel integrated species distribution model to predict habitat suitability for jaguars (Panthera onca) in the border region between northern Mexico and the southwestern USA. Our model combined presence-only and occupancy data to identify key environmental correlates, and we used model results to develop a probability of use map. We adopted a logistic regression modeling framework, which we found to be more straightforward and less computationally intensive to fit than Poisson point process-based models. Model results suggested that high terrain ruggedness and the presence of riparian vegetation were most strongly related to habitat use by jaguars in our study region. Our best model, on average, predicted that there is currently 25,463 km 2 of usable habitat in our study region. The United States portion of the study region, which makes up 38.6% of the total area, contained 40.6% of the total usable habitat. Even though there have been few detections of jaguars in the southwestern USA in recent decades, our results suggest that protection of currently suitable habitats, along with increased conservation efforts, could significantly contribute to the recovery of jaguars in the USA., (© 2022 The Ecological Society of America.)

Connecting scientific research and government policy is essential for achieving objectives in sustaining biodiversity in an economic context. Our approach to connecting theoretical ecology, applied ecology, and policy was devised using principles of restoration ecology and the requisite methodology to restore biodiverse ecosystems. Using a threatened ecological community (TEC) with >120 plant species, we posit our approach as a guide for interpreting and achieving regulatory compliance (i.e., government conditions) enacted to manage or offset environmental impacts of development. We inform the scientific approach necessary to delivering outcomes appropriate to policy intent and biodiverse restoration through theoretical and applied research into the ecological restoration of the highly endemic flora of banded ironstone formations of the Mid West of Western Australia. Our approach (1) defines scale-appropriate restoration targets that meet regulatory compliance (e.g., Government of Western Australia Ministerial Conditions); (2) determines the optimal method to return individual plant species to the restoration landscape; (3) develops a conceptual model for our system, based on existing restoration frameworks, to optimize and facilitate the pathway to the restoration of a vegetation community (e.g., TEC) using diverse research approaches; and (4) develops an assessment protocol to compare restoration achievements against the expected regulatory outcomes using our experimental restoration trials as a test example. Our approach systematically addressed the complex challenges in setting and achieving restoration targets for an entire vegetation community, a first for a semiarid environment. We interpret our approach as an industry application relevant to policy- or regulator-mediated mine restoration programs that seek to return biodiverse species assemblages at landscape scales., (© 2022 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

In Europe, forest management has controlled forest dynamics to sustain commodity production over multiple centuries. Yet over-regulation for growth and yield diminishes resilience to environmental stress as well as threatens biodiversity, leading to increasing forest susceptibility to an array of disturbances. These trends have stimulated interest in alternative management systems, including natural dynamics silviculture (NDS). NDS aims to emulate natural disturbance dynamics at stand and landscape scales through silvicultural manipulations of forest structure and landscape patterns. We adapted a "Comparability Index" (CI) to assess convergence/divergence between natural disturbances and forest management effects. We extended the original CI concept based on disturbance size and frequency by adding the residual structure of canopy trees after a disturbance as a third dimension. We populated the model by compiling data on natural disturbance dynamics and management from 13 countries in Europe, covering four major forest types (i.e., spruce, beech, oak, and pine-dominated forests). We found that natural disturbances are highly variable in size, frequency, and residual structure, but European forest management fails to encompass this complexity. Silviculture in Europe is skewed toward even-aged systems, used predominately (72.9% of management) across the countries assessed. The residual structure proved crucial in the comparison of natural disturbances and silvicultural systems. CI indicated the highest congruence between uneven-aged silvicultural systems and key natural disturbance attributes. Even so, uneven-aged practices emulated only a portion of the complexity associated with natural disturbance effects. The remaining silvicultural systems perform poorly in terms of retention compared to tree survivorship after natural disturbances. We suggest that NDS can enrich Europe's portfolio of management systems, for example where wood production is not the primary objective. NDS is especially relevant to forests managed for habitat quality, risk reduction, and a variety of ecosystem services. We suggest a holistic approach integrating NDS with more conventional practices., (© 2022 The Ecological Society of America.)

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the focus of many important land management issues, such as wildfire, habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and human-wildlife conflicts. Wildfire is an especially critical issue, because housing growth in the WUI increases wildfire ignitions and the number of homes at risk. Identifying the WUI is important for assessing and mitigating impacts of development on wildlands and for protecting homes from natural hazards, but data on housing development for large areas are often coarse. We created new WUI maps for the conterminous United States based on 125 million individual building locations, offering higher spatial precision compared to existing maps based on U.S. census housing data. Building point locations were based on a building footprint data set from Microsoft. We classified WUI across the conterminous United States at 30-m resolution using a circular neighborhood mapping algorithm with a variable radius to determine thresholds of housing density and vegetation cover. We used our maps to (1) determine the total area of the WUI and number of buildings included, (2) assess the sensitivity of WUI area included and spatial pattern of WUI maps to choice of neighborhood size, (3) assess regional differences between building-based WUI maps and census-based WUI maps, and (4) determine how building location accuracy affected WUI map accuracy. Our building-based WUI maps identified 5.6%-18.8% of the conterminous United States as being in the WUI, with larger neighborhoods increasing WUI area but excluding isolated building clusters. Building-based maps identified more WUI area relative to census-based maps for all but the smallest neighborhoods, particularly in the north-central states, and large differences were attributable to high numbers of non-housing structures in rural areas. Overall WUI classification accuracy was 98.0%. For wildfire risk mapping and for general purposes, WUI maps based on the 500-m neighborhood represent the original Federal Register definition of the WUI; these maps include clusters of buildings in and adjacent to wildlands and exclude remote, isolated buildings. Our approach for mapping the WUI offers flexibility and high spatial detail and can be widely applied to take advantage of the growing availability of high-resolution building footprint data sets and classification methods., (© 2022 The Ecological Society of America.)

Protected areas (PA) are an effective means of conserving biodiversity and protecting suites of valuable ecosystem services. Currently, many nations and international governments use proportional area protected as a critical metric for assessing progress towards biodiversity conservation. However, the areal and other common metrics do not assess the effectiveness of PA networks, nor do they assess how representative PA are of the ecosystems they aim to protect. Topography, stand structure, and land cover are all key drivers of biodiversity within forest environments, and are well-suited as indicators to assess the representation of PA. Here, we examine the PA network in British Columbia, Canada, through drivers derived from freely-available data and remote sensing products across the provincial biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification system. We examine biases in the PA network by elevation, forest disturbances, and forest structural attributes, including height, cover, and biomass by comparing a random sample of protected and unprotected pixels. Results indicate that PA are commonly biased towards high-elevation and alpine land covers, and that forest structural attributes of the park network are often significantly different in protected versus unprotected areas (426 out of 496 forest structural attributes found to be different; p < 0.01). Analysis of forest structural attributes suggests that establishing additional PA could ensure representation of various forest structure regimes across British Columbia's ecosystems. We conclude that these approaches using free and open remote sensing data are highly transferable and can be accomplished using consistent datasets to assess PA representations globally., (© 2022 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

The use of indicator species in forest conservation and management planning can facilitate enhanced preservation of biodiversity from the negative effects of forestry and other uses of land. However, this requires detailed and spatially comprehensive knowledge of the habitat preferences and distributions of selected focal indicator species. Unfortunately, due to limited resources for field surveys, only a small proportion of the occurrences of focal species is usually known. This shortcoming can be circumvented by using modeling techniques to predict the spatial distribution of suitable sites for the target species. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) and other remote sensing (RS) techniques have the potential to provide useful environmental data covering systematically large areas for these purposes. Here, we focused on six bird of prey and woodpecker species known to be good indicators of boreal forest biodiversity values. We used known nest sites of the six indicator species based on nestling ringing records. Thus, the most suitable nesting sites of these species provide important information for biodiversity-friendly forest management and conservation planning. We developed fine-grained, that is, 96 × 96 m grid cell resolution, predictive maps across the whole of Finland of the suitable nesting habitats based on ALS and other RS data and spatial information on the distribution of important forest stands for the six studied biodiversity indicator bird species based on nesting-habitat suitability modeling, that is, the MaxEnt model. Habitat preferences of the study species, as determined by MaxEnt, were in line with the previous knowledge of species-habitat relations. The proportion of suitable habitats of these species in protected areas (PAs) was considerable, but our analysis also revealed many potentially high-quality forest stands outside PAs. However, many of these sites are increasingly threatened by logging because of increased pressures for using forests for bioeconomy and forest industry based on National Forest Strategy. Predicting habitat suitability based on information on the nest sites of indicator species provides a new tool for systematic conservation planning over large areas in boreal forests in Europe, and a corresponding approach would also be feasible and recommendable elsewhere where similar data are available., (© 2021 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Wilderness areas are not immune to changes in land use, land cover, and/or climate. Future changes will intensify the balancing act of maintaining ecological conditions and untrammeled character within wilderness areas. We assessed the quantitative and spatial changes in land use, land cover, and climate predicted to occur in and around wilderness areas by (1) quantifying projected changes in land use and land cover around wilderness areas; (2) evaluating if public lands surrounding wilderness areas can buffer future land-use change; (3) quantifying future climate conditions in and around wilderness areas; and (4) identifying wilderness areas expected to experience the most change in land use, land cover, and climate. We used projections of land use (four variables), land cover (five variables), and climate (nine variables) to assess changes for 707 wilderness areas in the contiguous United States by mid-21st century under two scenarios (medium-low and high). We ranked all wilderness areas relative to each other by summing and ranking decile values for each land use, land cover, and climate variable and calculating a multivariate metric of future change. All wilderness areas were projected to experience some level of change by mid-century. The greatest land-use changes were associated with increases in agriculture, clear cutting, and developed land, while the greatest land cover changes were observed for grassland, forest, and shrubland. In 51.6% and 73.8% of wilderness areas, core area of natural vegetation surrounding wilderness was projected to decrease for the medium-low and high scenarios, respectfully. Presence of public land did not mitigate the influence of land-use change around wilderness areas. Geographically, projected changes occurred throughout the contiguous U.S., with areas in the northeast and upper Midwest projected to have the greatest land-use and climate change and the southwestern U.S. projected to undergo the greatest land cover and climate change. Our results provide insights into potential future threats to wilderness areas and the challenges associated with wilderness stewardship and climate adaptation. Despite the high degree of protection and remoteness of wilderness areas, effective management and preservation of these lands must consider future changes in land use, land cover, and climate., (© 2021 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

In this era of global environmental change and rapid regime shifts, managing core areas that species require to survive and persist is a grand challenge for conservation. Wildlife monitoring data are often limited or local in scale. The emerging ability to map and track spatial regimes (i.e., the spatial manifestation of state transitions) using advanced geospatial vegetation data has the potential to provide earlier warnings of habitat loss because many species of conservation concern strongly avoid spatial regime boundaries. Using 23 yr of data for the lek locations of Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido; GPC) in a remnant grassland ecosystem, we demonstrate how mapping changes in the boundaries between grassland and woodland spatial regimes provide a spatially explicit early warning signal for habitat loss for an iconic and vulnerable grassland-obligate known to be highly sensitive to woody plant encroachment. We tested whether a newly proposed metric for the quantification of spatial regimes captured well-known responses of GPC to woody plant expansion into grasslands. Resource selection functions showed that the grass:woody spatial regime boundary strength explained the probability of 80% of relative lek occurrence, and GPC strongly avoided grass:woody spatial regime boundaries at broad scales. Both findings are consistent with well-known expectations derived from GPC ecology. These results provide strong evidence for vegetation-derived delineations of spatial regimes to serve as generalized signals of early warning for state transitions that have major consequences to biodiversity conservation. Mapping spatial regime boundaries over time provided interpretable early warnings of habitat loss. Woody plant regimes displaced grassland regimes starting from the edges of the study area and constricting inward. Correspondingly, the relative probability of lek occurrence constricted in space. Similarly, the temporal trajectory of spatial regime boundary strength increased over time and moved closer to the observed limit of GPC lek site usage relative to grass:woody boundary strength. These novel spatial metrics allow managers to rapidly screen for early warning signals of spatial regime shifts and adapt management practices to defend and grow habitat cores at broad scales., (© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Monitoring and assessment of natural resources often require inputs from multiple data sources. In fisheries science, for example, the inference of a species' abundance distribution relies on two main data sources, namely commercial fisheries and scientific survey data. Despite efforts to combine these data into an integrated statistical model, their coupling is frequently hampered due to differences in their sampling designs, which imposes distinct bias sources in the estimator of the abundance distribution. We developed a flexible species distribution model (SDM) that can integrate both data sources while filtering out their relative bias contributions. We applied the model on three different age groups of the western Baltic cod stock. For each age group, we tested the model on (1) survey data and (2) integrated data (survey + commercial) as a means to compare their differences and investigate how the inclusion of commercial fisheries data improved the spatiotemporal abundance estimator and parameter estimates. Moreover, we proposed a novel validation approach to evaluate whether the inclusion of commercial fisheries data in the integrated model is not in direct contradiction with the survey data. Following our approach, the results indicated that the use of commercial fisheries data is suitable for the integrated model. Across all age groups, our results demonstrated how commercial fisheries supplied additional information on cod's spatiotemporal abundance dynamics, highlighting sometimes abundance hot spots that were not detected by the survey model alone. Additionally, the integrated model provided a reduction of up to 20% and 10% in the uncertainty (SE) of the predicted abundance fields and fixed-effect parameters, respectively. The proposed model represents thus a valuable benchmark for evaluating spatiotemporal dynamics of fish, and strengthens the science-based advice for marine policymakers., (© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Fish stocking and harvest regulations are frequently used to maintain or enhance freshwater recreational fisheries and contribute to fish conservation. However, their relative effectiveness has rarely been systematically evaluated using quantitative models that account for key size- and density-dependent ecological processes and adaptive responses of anglers. We present an integrated model of freshwater recreational fisheries where the population dynamics of two model species affect the effort dynamics of recreational anglers. With this model, we examined how stocking various fish densities and sizes (fry, fingerlings, and adults) performed relative to minimum-length limits using a variety of biological, social, and economic performance measures, while evaluating trade-offs. Four key findings are highlighted. First, stocking often augmented the exploited fish population, but size- and density-dependent bottlenecks limited the number of fry and fingerlings surviving to a catchable size in self-sustaining populations. The greatest enhancement of the catchable fish population occurred when large fish that escaped early bottlenecks were stocked, but this came at the cost of wild-stock replacement, thereby demonstrating a fundamental trade-off between fisheries benefits and conservation. Second, the relative performance of stocking naturally reproducing populations was largely independent of habitat quality and was generally low. Third, stocking was only economically advisable when natural reproduction was impaired or absent, stocking rates were low, and enough anglers benefitted from stocking to offset the associated costs. Fourth, in self-sustaining fish populations, minimum-length limits generally outperformed stocking when judged against a range of biological, social and economic objectives. By contrast, stocking in culture-based fisheries often generated substantial benefits. Collectively, our study demonstrates that size- and density-dependent processes, and broadly the degree of natural recruitment, drive the biological, social, and economic outcomes of popular management actions in recreational fisheries. To evaluate these outcomes and the resulting trade-offs, integrated fisheries-management models that explicitly consider the feedbacks among ecological and social processes are needed., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Forest fragmentation can lead to habitat reduction, edge increase, and exposure to disturbances. A key emerging policy to protect forests is payments for ecosystem services (PES), which offers compensation to landowners for environmental stewardship. Mexico was one of the first countries to implement a broad-scale PES program, enrolling over 2.3 Mha by 2010. However, Mexico's PES did not completely eliminate deforestation in enrolled parcels and could have increased incentives to hide deforestation in ways that increased fragmentation. We studied whether Mexican forests enrolled in the PES program had less forest fragmentation than those not enrolled, and whether the PES effects varied among forest types, among socioeconomic zones, or compared to the protected areas system. We analyzed forest cover maps from 2000 to 2012 to calculate forest fragmentation. We summarized fragmentation for different forest types and in four socioeconomic zones. We then used matching analysis to investigate the possible causal impacts of the PES on forests across Mexico and compared the effects of the PES program with that of protected areas. We found that the area covered by forest in Mexico decreased by 3.4% from 2000 to 2012, but there was 9.3% less forest core area. Change in forest cover was highest in the southern part of Mexico, and high-stature evergreen tropical forest lost the most core areas (-17%), while oak forest lost the least (-2%). Our matching analysis found that the PES program reduced both forest cover loss and forest fragmentation. Low-PES areas increased twice as much of the number of forest patches, forest edge, forest islets, and largest area of forest lost compared to high-PES areas. Compared to the protected areas system in Mexico, high-PES areas performed similarly in preventing fragmentation, but not as well as biosphere reserve core zones. We conclude that the PES was successful in slowing forest fragmentation at the regional and country level. However, the program could be improved by targeting areas where forest changes are more frequent, especially in southern Mexico. Fragmentation analyses should be implemented in other areas to monitor the outcomes of protection programs such as REDD+ and PES., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Disruption of movement patterns due to alterations in habitat connectivity is a pervasive effect of humans on animal populations. In many terrestrial and aquatic systems, there is increasing tension between the need to simultaneously allow passage of some species while blocking the passage of other species. We explore the ecological basis for selective fragmentation of riverine systems where the need to restrict movements of invasive species conflicts with the need to allow passage of species of commercial, recreational, or conservation concern. We develop a trait-based framework for selective fish passage based on understanding the types of movements displayed by fishes and the role of ecological filters in determining the spatial distributions of fishes. We then synthesize information on trait-based mechanisms involved with these filters to create a multidimensional niche space based on attributes such as physical capabilities, body morphology, sensory capabilities, behavior, and movement phenology. Following this, we review how these mechanisms have been applied to achieve selective fish passage across anthropogenic barriers. To date, trap-and-sort or capture-translocation efforts provide the best options for movement filters that are completely species selective, but these methods are hampered by the continual, high cost of manual sorting. Other less effective methods of selective passage risk collateral damage in the form of lower or higher than desired levels of passage. Fruitful areas for future work include using combinations of ecological and behavioral traits to passively segregate species; using taxon-specific chemical or auditory cues to direct unwanted species away from passageways and into physical or ecological traps while attracting desirable species to passageways; and developing automated sorting mechanisms based on fish recognition systems. The trait-based approach proposed for fish could serve as a template for selective fragmentation in other ecological systems., (© 2018 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

Community-based conservation, which strives to simultaneously improve nature conservation and alleviate poverty, must provide biological and socioeconomic benefits that are linked through effective resilience mechanisms. To date, few community-based conservation initiatives have published comprehensive assessments that track performance in these elements of success. With 45% of the world's protected areas in comanagement with local communities, standardized measures to effectively evaluate the dual goals of community-based conservation are needed. We here introduce SPECCS, a user-friendly Standardized Protocol for Evaluating Community Conservation Success that incorporates an appraisal of data quality to responsibly assess progress over time or to compare effectiveness among different initiatives. We illustrate SPECCS's use by evaluating the Wechiau Community Hippo Sanctuary (WCHS) of northern Ghana 10 and 20 yr after its inception. The WCHS has the dual objective of protecting one of Ghana's few remaining hippopotamus populations while alleviating poverty in the surrounding communities through the creation of economic opportunity and infrastructure development. Results suggest stable project performance in the 10-yr (76%) and 20-yr (76%) evaluation, with an improvement in evaluation quality from 30% to 34%. The project is currently stronger in socioeconomic (performance 86%; quality 30%) than biological (60%; 32%) outcomes and in benefits (83%, 42%) than resilience (63%, 21%). Biological resilience is challenged by poor connectivity and limited project control over threats, whereas socioeconomic resilience is affected by a decision balance that continues to favor external stakeholders. SPECCS helps pinpoint strengths and weaknesses for timely adaptive management, strategic investments, and evidence-based recognition of community-based conservation successes., (© 2018 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

Genetic resources have to be managed appropriately to mitigate the impact of climate change. For many wildland plants, conservation will require knowledge of the climatic factors affecting intraspecific genetic variation to minimize maladaptation. Knowledge of the interaction between traits and climate can focus management resources on vulnerable populations, provide guidance for seed transfer, and enhance fitness and resilience under changing climates. In this study, traits of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) were examined among common gardens located in different climates. We focus on two subspecies, wyomingensis and tridentata, that occupy the most imperiled warm-dry spectrum of the sagebrush biome. Populations collected across the sagebrush biome were recorded for flower phenology and survival. Mixed-effects models examined each trait to evaluate genetic variation, environmental effects, and adaptive breadth of populations. Climate variables derived from population-source locations were significantly associated with these traits (P < 0.0001), explaining 31% and 11% of the flower phenology and survival variation, respectively. To illustrate our model and assess variability in prediction, we examine fixed and focal point seed transfer approaches to map contemporary and climate model ensemble projections in two different regions of the sagebrush biome. A comparison of seed transfer areas predicts that populations from warmer climates become more prevalent, replacing colder-adapted populations by mid-century. However, these warm-adapted populations are often located along the trailing edge, margins of the species range predicted to be lost due to a contraction of the climatic niche. Management efforts should focus on the collection and conservation of vulnerable populations and prudent seed transfer to colder regions where these populations are projected to occur by mid-century. Our models provide the foundation to develop an empirical, climate-based seed transfer system for current and future restoration of big sagebrush., (Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

Across the tropics, unregulated hunting targeting many different species presents a major conservation challenge. Prioritizing resources for monitoring and enforcement is difficult when multiple prey species are exploited. However, identifying which prey species are subject to hunting pressure can be achieved with diet choice models. We evaluate hunter diet sets using data from Southwest China and compare two diet choice models: optimal foraging theory and a relatively new diet model originating from economic optimal stopping problems. The optimal stopping diet choice model required fewer field parameters than optimal foraging models and more accurately reflected hunter catch in Southwest China. The optimal stopping model also indicated that hunters should be less selective when they experience a larger opportunity cost for their time. Finally, we illustrate a new method to evaluate harvest impact from single sites with limited data using dietary thresholds. This technique could be used to evaluate whether or not the community of exploited wildlife has shifted in its trait distribution, providing a means to anticipate trait-biased defaunation from minimal data., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

The ideal species for green or vegetated roofs should have high water use after rainfall to maximize stormwater retention but also survive periods with low water availability in dry substrates. Shrubs have great potential for green roofs because they have higher rates of water use, and many species are also drought tolerant. However, not all shrub species will be suitable and there may be a trade-off between water use and drought tolerance. We conducted a glasshouse experiment to determine the possible trade-offs between shrub water use for stormwater management and their response to drought conditions. We selected 20 shrubs from a wide range of climates of origin, represented by heat moisture index (HMI) and mean annual precipitation (MAP). Under well-watered (WW) and water-deficit (WD) conditions, we assessed morphological responses to water availability; evapotranspiration rate (ET) and midday water potential (Ψ MD ) were used to evaluate species water use and drought response. In response to WD, all 20 shrubs adjusted their morphology and physiology. However, there were no species that simultaneously achieved high rates of water use (high ET) under WW and high drought tolerance (low Ψ MD ) under WD conditions. Although some species which had high water use under WW conditions could avoid drought stress (high Ψ MD ). Water use was strongly related to plant biomass, total leaf area, and leaf traits (specific leaf area [SLA] and leaf area ratio [LAR]). Conversely, drought response (Ψ MD ) was not related to morphological traits. Species' climate of origin was not related to drought response or water use. Drought-avoiding shrubs (high Ψ MD ) could optimize rainfall reduction on green roofs. Water use was related to biomass, leaf area, and leaf traits; thus, these traits could be used to assist the selection of shrubs for stormwater mitigation on green roofs. The natural distribution of species was not related to their water use or drought response, which suggests that shrubs from less arid climates may be suitable for use on green roofs. Selecting species based on traits and not climate of origin could both improve green roof performance and biodiversity outcomes by expanding the current plant palette., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Retention harvesting (also called tree retention or structural retention), in which live mature trees are selectively retained within harvested stands at different retention levels and in different patterns (aggregated to dispersed), is increasingly being used to mitigate the negative impacts of forest harvesting on biodiversity. However, the effectiveness of combining different patterns of retention harvesting for conservation and recovery of understory vascular plants in the long term is largely unknown. To address this gap, we compared understory vascular plant diversity, abundance, and composition between aggregated retention and five levels of surrounding dispersed retention (0% [clearcut], 10%, 20%, 50%, 75%) 15 yr postharvest. We also investigated the influence of dispersed retention on the ability of embedded retention patches to support plant communities characteristic of unharvested forests, and whether it varies by patch size of aggregated retention (0.20 ha or 0.46 ha) and position within patches (edge or interior). Species richness, diversity, and cover were higher in the dispersed retention than in the patch retention as the harvested areas favored early-seral plant species. Graminoid cover was greater at the edges than in the interior of large patches. Retention patches as small as 0.2 ha more effectively supported shade-tolerant (forest interior) plant communities when they were surrounded by higher levels of dispersed retention (as compared to patches retained within clearcuts). Overall, the combined use of both aggregated and dispersed retention within a given cutblock benefits both late- and early-seral plant species and thus could effectively conserve understory plant assemblages in harvested landscapes. Sustainable forest management should therefore consider using a range of retention patch sizes combined with varying levels of surrounding dispersed retention in harvest designs to achieve objectives for plant conservation., (© 2018 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

Population dynamics are often correlated in space and time due to correlations in environmental drivers as well as synchrony induced by individual dispersal. Many statistical analyses of populations ignore potential autocorrelations and assume that survey methods (distance and time between samples) eliminate these correlations, allowing samples to be treated independently. If these assumptions are incorrect, results and therefore inference may be biased and uncertainty underestimated. We developed a novel statistical method to account for spatiotemporal correlations within dendritic stream networks, while accounting for imperfect detection in the surveys. Through simulations, we found this model decreased predictive error relative to standard statistical methods when data were spatially correlated based on stream distance and performed similarly when data were not correlated. We found that increasing the number of years surveyed substantially improved the model accuracy when estimating spatial and temporal correlation coefficients, especially from 10 to 15 yr. Increasing the number of survey sites within the network improved the performance of the nonspatial model but only marginally improved the density estimates in the spatiotemporal model. We applied this model to brook trout data from the West Susquehanna Watershed in Pennsylvania collected over 34 yr from 1981 to 2014. We found the model including temporal and spatiotemporal autocorrelation best described young of the year (YOY) and adult density patterns. YOY densities were positively related to forest cover and negatively related to spring temperatures with low temporal autocorrelation and moderately high spatiotemporal correlation. Adult densities were less strongly affected by climatic conditions and less temporally variable than YOY but with similar spatiotemporal correlation and higher temporal autocorrelation., (Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

Cross-cultural environmental monitoring systems inform on a broad suite of indicators relevant to both scientific and local communities. In this study, we used forest-plot-based survey measures developed by western scientists and a set of community-based survey indicators developed by Māori, the indigenous people of New Zealand (NZ), to compare the current state of two ecologically congruent forests (Whirinaki and Ruatāhuna), as they related to a historic Ruatāhuna forest state (Baseline; 1955-1975) in NZ. Both the plot-based and community-based field surveys indicated that the Whirinaki forest was in a better state than the Ruatāhuna forest. This was supported by a stronger mauri (concept of life essence) rating assigned by Māori elders to the Whirinaki forest compared with the Ruatāhuna forests. However, both the Ruatāhuna and Whirinaki forests were deemed to be in a significantly poorer state than the Baseline forest. A cross-cultural monitoring system provides understanding of forest state that both managers and communities can use for decision-making. Historical baselines of forest state can provide ecological targets for restoration initiatives and also identify where on the restoration continuum current forest indicators lie. The alignment of plot-based measures with community-based indicators offers possibilities for future-proofing a cross-cultural monitoring system and buffering it from intergenerational shifts in ecological baselines. The opportunity for indigenous peoples and local communities to apply their traditional ways of knowing, and interpret and act on information they understand are crucial components of cross-cultural environmental management regimes., (© 2018 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

Ecological restoration has widely variable outcomes from successes to partial or complete failures, and there are diverse perspectives on the factors that influence the likelihood of success. However, not much is known about how these factors are perceived, and whether people's perceptions match realities. We surveyed 307 people involved in the restoration of native vegetation across Australia to identify their perceptions on the factors influencing the success of restoration projects. We found that weather (particularly drought and flooding) has realized impacts on the success of restoration projects, but is not perceived to be an important risk when planning new projects. This highlights the need for better recognition and management of weather risk in restoration and a potential role of seasonal forecasting. We used restoration case studies across Australia to assess the ability of seasonal forecasts provided by the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, version M24 (POAMA-2) to detect unfavorable weather with sufficient skill and lead time to be useful for restoration projects. We found that rainfall and temperature variables in POAMA-2 predicted 88% of the weather issues encountered in restoration case studies apart from strong winds and cyclones. Of those restoration case studies with predictable weather issues, POAMA-2 had the forecast skill to predict the dominant or first-encountered issue in 67% of cases. We explored the challenges associated with uptake of forecast products through consultation with restoration practitioners and developed a prototype forecast product using a local case study. Integrating seasonal forecasting into decision making through (1) identifying risk management strategies during restoration planning, (2) accessing the forecast a month prior to revegetation activities, and (3) adapting decisions if extreme weather is forecasted, is expected to improve the establishment success of restoration., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Protected areas form the cornerstone of global efforts to conserve biodiversity. Most current methods for designing reserve networks focus on maximizing the representation of species, but with no assurance that those species will persist in the protected landscapes into the future. We present a new strategy for reserve design that combines metapopulation theory with spatial conservation prioritization to estimate conservation solutions that minimize extinction risk across numerous species simultaneously. Our framework optimizes the spatial configuration of reserves to maximize metapopulation persistence for an entire assemblage of species by accounting for both species representation and landscape connectivity. As a case study, we design a reserve network for 114 terrestrial mammal species in Indonesian New Guinea. Our approach builds on Marxan, the flagship representation-based reserve design tool, improving estimated persistence (metapopulation capacity) by an average of 4.6-fold across species, without increasing the socioeconomic cost. We suggest that enhancing species persistence, rather than protecting arbitrary proportions of species' ranges, should be the ultimate objective of conservation planning., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Managers require quantitative yet tractable tools that identify areas for restoration yielding effective benefits for targeted wildlife species and the ecosystems they inhabit. As a contemporary example of high national significance for conservation, the persistence of Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin is compromised by strongly interacting stressors of conifer expansion, annual grass invasion, and more frequent wildfires occurring in sagebrush ecosystems. Associated restoration treatments to a sagebrush-dominated state are often costly and may yield relatively little ecological benefit to sage-grouse if implemented without estimating how Sage-grouse may respond to treatments, or do not consider underlying processes influencing sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive species. Here, we describe example applications of a spatially explicit conservation planning tool (CPT) to inform prioritization of: (1) removal of conifers (i.e., pinyon-juniper); and (2) wildfire restoration aimed at improving habitat conditions for the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment of Sage-grouse along the California-Nevada state line. The CPT measures ecological benefits to sage-grouse for a given management action through a composite index comprised of resource selection functions and estimates of abundance and space use. For pinyon-juniper removal, we simulated changes in land-cover composition following the removal of sparse trees with intact understories, and ranked treatments on the basis of changes in ecological benefits per dollar-unit of cost. For wildfire restoration, we formulated a conditional model to simulate scenarios for land cover changes (e.g., sagebrush to annual grass) given estimated fire severity and underlying ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion by annual grasses. For both applications, we compared CPT rankings to land cover changes along with sagebrush resistance and resilience metrics. Model results demonstrated how the CPT can be an important step in identifying management projects that yield the highest quantifiable benefit to Sage-grouse while avoiding costly misallocation of resources, and highlight the importance of considering changes in sage-grouse ecological response and factors influencing sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. This unique framework can be adopted to help inform other management questions aimed at improving habitat for other species across sagebrush and other ecosystems., (© 2018 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

Understanding and mapping the spatial variation in stream biological condition could provide an important tool for conservation, assessment, and restoration of stream ecosystems. The USEPA's 2008-2009 National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) summarizes the percentage of stream lengths within the conterminous United States that are in good, fair, or poor biological condition based on a multimetric index of benthic invertebrate assemblages. However, condition is usually summarized at regional or national scales, and these assessments do not provide substantial insight into the spatial distribution of conditions at unsampled locations. We used random forests to model and predict the probable condition of several million kilometers of streams across the conterminous United States based on nearby and upstream landscape features, including human-related alterations to watersheds. To do so, we linked NRSA sample sites to the USEPA's StreamCat Dataset; a database of several hundred landscape metrics for all 1:100,000-scale streams and their associated watersheds within the conterminous United States. The StreamCat data provided geospatial indicators of nearby and upstream land use, land cover, climate, and other landscape features for modeling. Nationally, the model correctly predicted the biological condition class of 75% of NRSA sites. Although model evaluations suggested good discrimination among condition classes, we present maps as predicted probabilities of good condition, given upstream and nearby landscape settings. Inversely, the maps can be interpreted as the probability of a stream being in poor condition, given human-related watershed alterations. These predictions are available for download from the USEPA's StreamCat website. Finally, we illustrate how these predictions could be used to prioritize streams for conservation or restoration., (© 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.)

It is common to use multiple field sampling methods when implementing wildlife surveys to compare method efficacy or cost efficiency, integrate distinct pieces of information provided by separate methods, or evaluate method-specific biases and misclassification error. Existing models that combine information from multiple field methods or sampling devices permit rigorous comparison of method-specific detection parameters, enable estimation of additional parameters such as false-positive detection probability, and improve occurrence or abundance estimates, but with the assumption that the separate sampling methods produce detections independently of one another. This assumption is tenuous if methods are paired or deployed in close proximity simultaneously, a common practice that reduces the additional effort required to implement multiple methods and reduces the risk that differences between method-specific detection parameters are confounded by other environmental factors. We develop occupancy and spatial capture-recapture models that permit covariance between the detections produced by different methods, use simulation to compare estimator performance of the new models to models assuming independence, and provide an empirical application based on American marten (Martes americana) surveys using paired remote cameras, hair catches, and snow tracking. Simulation results indicate existing models that assume that methods independently detect organisms produce biased parameter estimates and substantially understate estimate uncertainty when this assumption is violated, while our reformulated models are robust to either methodological independence or covariance. Empirical results suggested that remote cameras and snow tracking had comparable probability of detecting present martens, but that snow tracking also produced false-positive marten detections that could potentially substantially bias distribution estimates if not corrected for. Remote cameras detected marten individuals more readily than passive hair catches. Inability to photographically distinguish individual sex did not appear to induce negative bias in camera density estimates; instead, hair catches appeared to produce detection competition between individuals that may have been a source of negative bias. Our model reformulations broaden the range of circumstances in which analyses incorporating multiple sources of information can be robustly used, and our empirical results demonstrate that using multiple field-methods can enhance inferences regarding ecological parameters of interest and improve understanding of how reliably survey methods sample these parameters., (© 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt=Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed "transient life-table response experiments" with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for Lesser Scaup over 60 yr, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in Lesser Scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of Lesser Scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about Lesser Scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change., (© 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.)