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Increasing demand for river water now conflicts with an increasing desire to maintain riparian ecosystems. Efficiently managing river flows for riparian vegetation requires an understanding of the time scale of flow effects, but this information is limited by the absence of long-term studies of vegetation change in response to flow variation. To investigate the influence of short- and long-term flow variability and dam operation on riparian vegetation, we determined the occurrence of 107 plant species in 133 permanent plots of known inundating discharge along the Gunnison River in Colorado on five different occasions between 1990 and 2013. Individual species moved up and down the gradient of inundating discharge coincident with increases and decreases in mean annual flow, and the correlations between flow and species occurrence were strongest when flows were weighted by time before vegetation sampling with a median half-life of 1.5 years. Some tall, rhizomatous, perennial species, however, responded to flows on a longer time scale. Logistic regression of species occurrence showed a significant relation with inundation duration for 70 out of 107 species. Plot species richness and total vegetative cover decreased in association with desiccation at low inundation durations and with fluvial disturbance at high inundation durations. Within-plot similarity in species occurrence between years decreased strongly with increasing inundation duration. Moderate inundation durations were dominated by tall, rhizomatous, perennial herbs, including invasive Phalaris arundinacea (reed canary grass). Over the 23-year study period, species richness declined, and the proportion of rhizomatous perennials increased, consistent with the hypothesis that decreases in flow peaks and increases in low flows caused by flow regulation have decreased establishment opportunities for disturbance-dependent species. In summary, annual-scale changes in vegetation were strongly influenced by flow variation, and decadal-scale changes were influenced by decreases in fluvial disturbance from upstream flow regulation beginning decades prior to the onset of this study.

Flow variability plays a central role in structuring the physical environment of riverine ecosystems. However, natural variability in flows along many rivers has been modified by water management activities. We quantified the relationship between flow and establishment of the dominant tree (plains cottonwood, Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera) along one of the least hydrologically altered alluvial reaches of the Missouri River: Coal Banks Landing to Landusky, Montana. Our purpose was to refine our understanding of how local fluvial geomorphic processes condition the relationship between flow regime and cottonwood recruitment. We determined date and elevation of tree establishment and related this information to historical peak stage and discharge over a 112-yr hydrologic record. Of the excavated trees, 72% were established in the year of a flow >1400 m3/s (recurrence interval of 9.3 yr) or in the following 2 yr. Flows of this magnitude or greater create the necessary bare, moist establishment sites at an elevation high enough to allow cottonwoods to survive subsequent floods and ice jams. Almost all cottonwoods that have survived the most recent flood (1978) were established >1.2 m above the lower limit of perennial vegetation (active channel shelf). Most younger individuals were established between 0 and 1.2 m, and are unlikely to survive over the long term. Protection of riparian cottonwood forest along this National Wild and Scenic section of the Missouri River depends upon maintaining the historical magnitude, frequency, and duration of floods >1400 m3/s. Here, a relatively narrow valley constrains lateral channel movement that could otherwise facil- itate cottonwood recruitment at lower flows. Effective management of flows to promote or maintain cottonwood recruitment requires an understanding of locally dominant fluvial geomorphic processes.

The intense demand for river water in arid regions is resulting in widespread changes in riparian vegetation. We present a direct gradient method to predict the vegetation change resulting from a proposed upstream dam or diversion. Our method begins with the definition of vegetative cover types, based on a census of the existing vegetation in a set of 1 ° 2 m plots. A hydraulic model determines the discharge necessary to inundate each plot. We use the hydrologic record, as defined by a flow duration curve, to determine the inundation duration for each plot. This allows us to position cover types along a gradient of inundation duration. A change in river management results in a new flow duration curve, which is used to redistribute the cover types among the plots. Changes in vegetation are expressed in terms of the area occupied by each cover type. We applied this approach to riparian vegetation of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Monument along the Gunnison River in Colorado. We used TWINSPAN to cluster plots according to species occurrence. This analysis defined three vegetative cover types that were distinct in terms of inundation duration. Quantitative changes in the extent of cover types were estimated for three hypothetical flow regimes: two diversion alternatives with different minimum flows and a moving average modification of historical flows. Our results suggest that (1) it is possible to cause substantial changes in riparian vegetation without changing mean annual flow, and (2) riparian vegetation is especially sensitive to changes in minimum and maximum flows. Principal advantages of this method are simplicity and reliance on relatively standard elements of plant community ecology and hydrologic engineering. Limitations include use of a single environmental gradient, restrictive assumptions about changes in channel geometry, representation of vegetation as quasi—equilibrium cover types, and the need for model validation.