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Climate change predicts the increased frequency, duration, and intensity of inclement weather periods such as unseasonably low temperatures (i.e., cold snaps) and prolonged precipitation. Many migratory species have advanced the phenology of important life history stages and, as a result, are likely to be exposed to these periods of inclement spring weather more often, therefore risking reduced fitness and population growth. For declining avian species, including aerial insectivores, anthropogenic landscape changes such as agricultural intensification are another driver of population declines. These landscape changes may affect the foraging ability of food provisioning parents and reduce the survival of nestlings exposed to inclement weather through, for example, pesticide exposure impairing thermoregulation and punctual anorexia. Breeding in agro‐intensive landscapes may therefore exacerbate the negative effects of inclement weather under climate change. We observed that a significant reduction in the availability of insect prey occurred when daily maximum temperatures fell below 18.3°C, and thereby defined any day when the maximum temperature fell below this value as a day witnessing a cold snap. We then combined daily information on the occurrence of cold snaps and measures of precipitation to assess their impact on the fledging success of Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) occupying a nest box system placed across a gradient of agricultural intensification. Estimated fledging success of this declining aerial insectivore was 36.2% lower for broods experiencing 4 cold‐snap days during the 12 days post‐hatching period versus broods experiencing none, and this relationship was worsened when facing more precipitation. We further found that the overall negative effects of a brood experiencing periods of inclement weather was exacerbated in more agro‐intensive landscapes. Our results indicate that two of the primary hypothesized drivers of many avian population declines may interact to further increase the rate of declines in certain landscape contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of physiological measures to conservation monitoring has been gaining momentum and, while a suite of physiological traits are available to ascertain disturbance and condition in wildlife populations, glucocorticoids (i.e., GCs; cortisol and corticosterone) are the most heavily employed. The interpretation of GC levels as sensitive indicators of population change necessitates that GCs and metrics of population persistence are linked. However, the relationship between GCs and fitness may be highly context-dependent, changing direction, or significance, depending on the GC measure, fitness metric, life history stage, or other intrinsic and extrinsic contexts considered. We examined the relationship between baseline plasma corticosterone ( CORT) levels measured at two periods of the breeding season and three metrics of fitness (offspring quality, reproductive output, and adult survival) in female Tree Swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor). Specifically, we investigated whether (1) a relationship between baseline CORT metrics and fitness exists in our population, (2) whether the inclusion of energetic contexts, such as food availability, reproductive investment, or body mass, could alter or improve the strength of the relationship between CORT and fitness, and (3) whether energetic contexts could better predict fitness compared to CORT metrics. Importantly, we investigated these relationships in both natural conditions and under an experimental manipulation of foraging profitability (feather clipping) to determine the influence of an environmental constraint on GC-fitness relationships. We found a lack of relationship between baseline CORT and both short- and long-term metrics of fitness in control and clipped birds. In contrast, loss in body mass over reproduction positively predicted reproductive output (number of chicks leaving the nest) in control birds; however, the relationship was characterized by a low R2 (5%), limiting the predictive capacity, and therefore the application potential, of such a measure in a conservation setting. Our results stress the importance of ground-truthing GC-fitness relationships and indicate that baseline GCs will likely not be easily employed as conservation biomarkers across some species and life history stages. Given the accumulating evidence of temporally dynamic, inconsistent, and context-dependent GC-fitness relationships, placing effort towards directly measuring fitness traits, rather than plasma GC levels, will likely be more worthwhile for many conservation endeavours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]