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Despite widespread concerns about the anthropogenic drivers of global pollinator declines, little information is available about the impacts of land management practices on wild bees outside of agricultural systems, including in forests managed intensively for wood production. We assessed changes in wild bee communities with time since harvest in 60 intensively managed Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands across a gradient in stand ages spanning a typical harvest rotation. We measured bee abundance, species richness, and alpha and beta diversity, as well as habitat characteristics (i.e., floral resources, nesting substrates, understory vegetation, and early seral forest in the surrounding landscape) during the spring and summer of 2018 and 2019. We found that bee abundance and species richness declined rapidly with stand age, decreasing by 61% and 48%, respectively, for every 5 years since timber harvest. Asymptotic estimates of Shannon and Simpson diversity were highest in stands 6–10 years post‐harvest and lowest after the forest canopy had closed, ~11 years post‐harvest. Bee communities in older stands were nested subsets of bee communities found in younger stands, indicating that changes were due to species loss rather than turnover as the stands aged. Bee abundance—but not species richness—was positively associated with floral resource density, and neither metric was associated with floral richness. The amount of early seral forest in the surrounding landscape seemed to enhance bee species richness in older, closed‐canopy stands, but otherwise had little effect. Changes in the relative abundance of bee species did not relate to bee functional characteristics such as sociality, diet breadth, or nesting substrate. Our study demonstrates that Douglas‐fir plantations develop diverse communities of wild bees shortly after harvest, but those communities erode rapidly over time as forest canopies close. Therefore, stand‐scale management activities that prolong the precanopy closure period and enhance floral resources during the initial stage of stand regeneration will provide the greatest opportunity to enhance bee diversity in landscapes dominated by intensively managed conifer forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape‐scale deforestation poses a major threat to global biodiversity, not only because it limits habitat availability, but also because it can drive the degradation of the remaining habitat. However, the multiple pathways by which deforestation directly and indirectly affects wildlife remain poorly understood, especially for elusive forest‐dependent species such as arboreal mammals. Using structural equation models, we assessed the direct and indirect effects of landscape forest loss on arboreal mammal assemblages in the Lacandona rainforest, Mexico. We placed camera traps in 100 canopy trees, and assessed the direct effect of forest cover and their indirect effects via changes in tree basal area and canopy openness on the abundance and diversity (i.e., species richness and exponential of Shannon entropy) of arboreal mammals. We found that forest loss had negative indirect effects on mammal richness through the increase of tree canopy openness. This could be related to the fact that canopy openness is usually inversely related to resource availability and canopy connectivity for arboreal mammals. Furthermore, independently of forest loss, the abundance and richness of arboreal mammals was positively related to tree basal area, which is typically higher in old‐growth forests. Thus, our findings suggest that arboreal mammals generally prefer old‐growth vegetation with relatively low canopy openness and high tree basal area. However, unexpectedly, forest loss was directly and positively related to the abundance and richness of mammals, probably due to a crowding effect, a reasonable possibility given the relatively short history (~40 years) of deforestation in the study region. Conversely, the Shannon diversity was not affected by the predictors we evaluated, suggesting that rare mammals (not the common species) are the ones most affected by these changes. All in all, our findings emphasize that conservation measures ought to focus on increasing forest cover in the landscape, and preventing the loss of large trees in the remaining forest patches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As fragmented landscapes become increasingly common around the world, managing the spatial arrangement of landscape elements (i.e., landscape configuration) may help to promote the conservation of biodiversity. However, the relative effects of landscape configuration on different dimensions of biodiversity across species assemblages are largely unknown. Thus, a key challenge consists in understanding when it is necessary to focus on landscape configuration, in addition to landscape composition, to achieve multifunctional landscapes. We tested the effects of landscape composition (the percentage of tree cover and built infrastructure) and landscape configuration (degree of fragmentation) on landscape‐level species richness and different metrics of functional diversity of urban birds. We collected data on different bird guilds (nectarivores/frugivores, insectivores) from Brisbane, Australia. Using structural equation models, we found that landscape structure (landscape composition and configuration) affected functional diversity via two main pathways: (1) through effects of landscape composition, mediated by landscape configuration (indirect effects), and (2) through direct ("independent") effects of landscape composition and configuration, filtering species with extreme trait values. Our results show that landscape‐level species richness declined with the extent of built infrastructure, but patterns of trait diversity did not necessarily correlate with this variable. Landscape configuration had a stronger mediating effect on some metrics of the functional diversity of insectivores than on the functional diversity of frugivores/nectarivores. In addition, fragmentation increased the effects of built infrastructure for some traits (body size and dispersal capacity), but not for others (habitat plasticity and foraging behavior). These results suggest that differential approaches to managing landscape structure are needed depending on whether the focus is on protecting functional diversity or species richness and what the target guild is. Managing landscape fragmentation in areas with high levels of built infrastructure is important if the objective is to protect insectivore species with uncommon traits, even if it is not possible to preserve high levels of species richness. However, if the target is to enhance both functional diversity and species richness of multiple guilds, the focus should be on improving composition through the reduction of negative effects of built infrastructure, rather than promoting specific landscape configurations in growing cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Widespread afforestation is a crucial component of climate mitigation strategies worldwide. This presents a significant opportunity for biodiversity conservation if forests are appropriately managed. Within forests, structural and habitat diversity are known to be critical for biodiversity but pragmatic management recommendations are lacking. We make a comprehensive assessment of the effects of habitat variables on bird populations using data from over 4000 ha of forested landscape. We combine high‐resolution remote sensing data with comprehensive management databases to classify habitat attributes and measure the response of six taxonomic and functional diversity metrics: species richness, Shannon diversity, functional richness, functional evenness, functional divergence, and functional dispersion. We use a novel approach that combines hierarchical partitioning analysis with linear models to determine the relative importance of different habitat variables for each bird diversity metric. The age class of forest stands was consistently the most important variable across all bird diversity metrics, outperforming other structural measures such as horizontal and vertical heterogeneity and canopy density. Shrub density and gap fraction were each significantly associated with one bird diversity metric. In contrast, variables describing within‐stand structural heterogeneity (vertical and horizontal) were generally less important while tree species identity (e.g., conifer or broadleaved) was not significant for any bird diversity metric. Each of the six bird diversity metrics had different patterns of independent variable importance and significance, emphasizing the need to consider multiple diversity metrics in biodiversity assessments. Similarly, the optimal resolution for remote sensing metrics varied between structural variables and bird diversity metrics, suggesting that the use of remote sensing data in biodiversity studies could be greatly improved by first exploring different resolutions and data aggregations. Based on the results from this comprehensive study, we recommend that managers focus on creating habitat diversity at the between‐, rather than exclusively within‐stand scale, such as by creating a matrix of different age classes, to maximize bird diversity. This recommendation for forest managers is powerful yet pragmatic in its simplicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional conservation policies in Europe notably rely on the passive restoration of natural forest dynamics by setting aside forest areas to preserve forest biodiversity. However, since forest reserves cover only a small proportion of the territory, conservation policies also require complementary conservation efforts in managed forests in order to achieve the biodiversity targets set up in the Convention on Biological Diversity. Conservation measures also raise the question of large herbivore management in and around set‐asides, particularly regarding their impact on understory vegetation. Although many studies have separately analyzed the effects of forest management, management abandonment, and ungulate pressure on forest biodiversity, their joint effects have rarely been studied in a correlative framework. We studied 212 plots located in 15 strict forest reserves paired with adjacent managed forests in European France. We applied structural equation models to test the effects of management abandonment, stand structure, and ungulate pressure on the abundance, species richness, and diversity of herbaceous vascular plants and terricolous bryophytes. We showed that stand structure indices and plot‐level browsing pressure had direct and opposite effects on herbaceous vascular plant species diversity; these effects were linked with the light tolerance of the different species groups. Increasing canopy cover had an overall negative effect on herbaceous vascular plant abundance and species diversity. The effect was two to three times greater in magnitude than the positive effects of browsing pressure on herbaceous plants diversity. On the other hand, a high stand density index had a positive effect on the species richness and diversity of bryophytes, while browsing had no effect. Forest management abandonment had few direct effects on understory plant communities, and mainly indirectly affected herbaceous vascular plant and bryophyte abundance and species richness and diversity through changes in vertical stand structure. Our results show that conservation biologists should rely on foresters and hunters to lead the preservation of understory vegetation communities in managed forests since, respectively, they manipulate stand structure and regulate ungulate pressure. Their management actions should be adapted to the taxa at stake, since bryophytes and vascular plants respond differently to stand and ungulate factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the factors and mechanisms shaping differences in species composition across space and time (β‐diversity) in human‐modified landscapes has key ecological and applied implications. This topic is, however, challenging because landscape disturbance can promote either decreases (biotic homogenization) or increases (biotic differentiation) in β‐diversity. We assessed temporal differences in intersite β‐diversity of medium‐bodied and large‐bodied mammals in the fragmented Lacandona rainforest, Mexico. We hypothesized that, given the relatively short history of land‐use changes in the region, and the gain and loss of some species caused by landscape spatial changes, β‐diversity would increase through time, especially its nestedness component. We estimated β‐diversity between 24 forest sites (22 forest patches and two continuous forest sites) in 2011 and 2017 to assess whether β‐diversity is decreasing or increasing in the region, and calculated its turnover and nestedness components to understand the mechanisms responsible for changes in β‐diversity, separately assessing mammal groups with different body mass, feeding guild, and habitat specialization. We then related such temporal changes in β‐diversity to temporal changes in five landscape variables (forest cover, matrix openness, number of patches, edge density and interpatch distance) to identify the landscape drivers of β‐diversity. In contrast with our expectations, β‐diversity decreased over time, suggesting an ongoing biotic homogenization process. This pattern was mostly driven by a decrease in species turnover in all mammal groups, especially in landscapes with decreasing forest cover and increasing forested matrices. Although the nestedness component showed a three‐fold increase through time, species turnover was 22 and six times higher than nestedness in 2011 and 2017, respectively. The decreased turnover appears to be driven by an increase in dispersal (i.e., spillover) of native species among patches. The prevalence of species turnover over nestedness indicates that different forest sites have a fairly distinct subset of species (i.e., high complementarity in species composition). Therefore, conserving all remaining forest patches and increasing forest cover is of utmost importance to effectively maintain β‐diversity and conserve the total diversity (γ) of mammal assemblages in this Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how land‐management intensification shapes the relationships between biodiversity, yield, and economic benefit is critical for managing natural resources. Yet, manipulative experiments that test how herbicides affect these relationships are scarce, particularly in forest ecosystems where considerable time lags exist between harvest revenue and initial investments. We assessed these relationships by combining 7 yr of biodiversity surveys (>800 taxa) and forecasts of timber yield and economic return from a replicated, large‐scale experiment that manipulated herbicide application intensity in operational timber plantations. Herbicides reduced species richness across trophic groups (−18%), but responses by higher‐level trophic groups were more variable (0–38% reduction) than plant responses (−40%). Financial discounting, a conventional economic method to standardize past and future cash flows, strongly modified biodiversity–revenue relationships caused by management intensity. Despite a projected 28% timber yield gain with herbicides, biodiversity–revenue trade‐offs were muted when opportunity costs were high (i.e., economic discount rates ≥7%). Although herbicides can drive biodiversity–yield trade‐offs, under certain conditions, financial discounting provides opportunities to reconcile biodiversity conservation with revenue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Innovative techniques, such as environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding, are now promoting broader biodiversity monitoring at unprecedented scales, because of the reduction in time, presumably lower cost, and methodological efficiency. Our goal was to assess the efficiency of established inventory techniques (live‐trapping grids, pitfall traps, camera trapping, mist netting) as well as eDNA for detecting Amazonian mammals. For terrestrial small mammals, we used 32 live‐trapping grids based on Sherman and Tomahawk traps (total effort of 10,368 trap‐nights); in addition to 16 pitfall traps (1,408 trap‐nights). For bats, we used mist nets at 8 sites (4,800 net hours). For medium and large mammals, we used 72 camera trap stations (5,208 camera‐days). We identified vertebrate and mammal taxa based on eDNA analysis (12S region, with V05 and Mamm01 markers) from water samples, including a total of 11 3‐km transects for stagnant water sampling and seven small streams for running water sampling. A total of 106 mammal species were recorded. Building on sample‐based rarefaction and extrapolation curves, both trapping grids and pitfall were successful, recording 91.16% and 82.1% of the expected species for these techniques (~22 and ~9 species), and 16.98% and 6.60% of the total recorded mammal species, respectively. Mist nets recorded 83.2% of the expected bat species (~48), and 34.91% of the total recorded species. Camera trapping recorded 99.2% of the predicted large‐ and medium‐sized species (~31), and 33.02% of the total recorded species. eDNA recorded 75.4% of the expected mammal species for this technique (~68), and 47.0% of the total recorded species. eDNA resulted in a useful tool that saves on effort and reduces sampling costs. This study is among the first to show the large potential of eDNA metabarcoding for assessing Amazonian mammal communities, providing, in combination with conventional techniques, a rapid overview of mammal diversity with broad applications to monitoring, management and conservation. By including appropriate genetic markers and updated reference databases, eDNA metabarcoding method can be extended to the whole vertebrate community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Functional ecology has increasingly focused on describing ecological communities based on their traits (measurable features affecting individuals' fitness and performance). Analyzing trait distributions within and among forests could significantly improve understanding of community composition and ecosystem function. Historically, data on trait distributions are generated by (1) collecting a small number of leaves from a small number of trees, which suffers from limited sampling but produces information at the fundamental ecological unit (the individual), or (2) using remote‐sensing images to infer traits, producing information continuously across large regions, but as plots (containing multiple trees of different species) or pixels, not individuals. Remote‐sensing methods that identify individual trees and estimate their traits would provide the benefits of both approaches, producing continuous large‐scale data linked to biological individuals. We used data from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to develop a method to scale up functional traits from 160 trees to the millions of trees within the spatial extent of two NEON sites. The pipeline consists of three stages: (1) image segmentation, to identify individual trees and estimate structural traits; (2) an ensemble of models to infer leaf mass area (LMA), nitrogen, carbon, and phosphorus content using hyperspectral signatures, and DBH from allometry; and (3) predictions for segmented crowns for the full remote‐sensing footprint at the NEON sites. The R2 values on held‐out test data ranged from 0.41 to 0.75 on held‐out test data. The ensemble approach performed better than single partial least‐squares models. Carbon performed poorly compared to other traits (R2 of 0.41). The crown segmentation step contributed the most uncertainty in the pipeline, due to over‐segmentation. The pipeline produced good estimates of DBH (R2 of 0.62 on held‐out data). Trait predictions for crowns performed significantly better than comparable predictions on pixels, resulting in improvement of R2 on test data of between 0.07 and 0.26. We used the pipeline to produce individual‐level trait data for ~5 million individual crowns, covering a total extent of ~360 km2. This large data set allows testing ecological questions on landscape scales, revealing that foliar traits are correlated with structural traits and environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests are projected to undergo dramatic compositional and structural shifts prompted by global changes, such as climatic changes and intensifying natural disturbance regimes. Future uncertainty makes planning for forest management exceptionally difficult, demanding novel approaches to maintain or improve the ability of forest ecosystems to respond and rapidly reorganize after disturbance events. Adopting a landscape perspective in forest management is particularly important in fragmented forest landscapes where both diversity and connectivity play key roles in determining resilience to global change. In this context, network analysis and functional traits combined with ecological dynamic modeling can help evaluate changes in functional response diversity and connectivity within and among forest stands in fragmented landscapes. Here, we coupled ecological dynamic modeling with functional traits analysis and network theory to analyze forested landscapes as an interconnected network of forest patches. We simulated future forest landscape dynamics in a large landscape in southern Quebec, Canada, under a combination of climate, disturbance, and management scenarios. We depicted the landscape as a functional network, assessed changes in future resilience using indicators at multiple spatial scales, and evaluated if current management practices are suitable for maintaining resilience to simulated changes in regimes. Our results show that climate change would promote forest productivity and favor heat‐adapted deciduous species. Changes in natural disturbances will likely have negative impacts on native conifers and will drive changes in forest type composition. Climate change negatively impacted all resilience indicators and triggered losses of functional response diversity and connectivity across the landscape with undesirable consequences on the capacity of these forests to adapt to global change. Also, current management strategies failed to promote resilience at different spatial levels, highlighting the need for a more active and thoughtful approach to forest management under global change. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of combining dynamic landscape‐scale simulation modeling with network analyses to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change as well as human and natural disturbances on forest resilience under global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wood‐inhabiting fungal communities are a diverse and ecologically critical part of forest ecosystems, yet the spatial structure of fungal biodiversity in these ecosystems is largely unknown. Legislation allowed harvesting of deadwood from temperate rainforests on conservation lands in New Zealand following Cyclone Ita in 2014. Harvesting guidelines specified widely spread harvesting, on the assumption that rare fungal species may be highly spatially restricted, but were not based on quantitative assessment. We sampled fungi in and on logs of Dacrydium cupressinum (Podocarpaceae) a long‐lived, common, canopy tree in lowland New Zealand forests. DNA was extracted from 81 logs varying in decay state across a 40 km long region of West Coast (South Island) forests, and sequenced using general fungal primers for metabarcoding to identify OTUs (operational taxonomic units). We examined three axes of rarity: occupancy, dominance when present, and niche breadth (as spatial extent and decay state specialization). Low‐occupancy fungi were common, including a group of infrequently occurring but dominant when present fungi, the majority of which were Ascomycota. Despite this, there was an overall positive relationship between occupancy and dominance. Widespread, dominant fungi were most commonly Basidiomycota. Testing all fungal OTUs, there were no more fungi with maximum range sizes < 4 km than would be expected at random. Of the 351 low‐occupancy OTUs found two to four times, only 12 had maximum range sizes < 900 m, and there was no more spatial restriction at scales < 900 m than would be expected by random chance, although there was some evidence of niche breadth restriction based on decay state similarity. The results show that fungal communities in deadwood are highly diverse, and include many rare taxa. Nonetheless, the lack of fungal OTUs with spatial restriction at scales < 900 m suggests that spatially dispersed timber harvesting will not mitigate risks of harvesting to rare fungal biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land management practices often directly alter vegetation structure and composition, but the degree to which ecological processes such as herbivory interact with management to influence biodiversity is less well understood. We hypothesized that large herbivores compound the effects of intensive forest management on early seral plant communities and plantation establishment (i.e., tree survival and growth), and the degree of such effects is dependent on the intensity of management practices. We established 225‐m2 wild‐ungulate (deer and elk) exclosures, nested within a manipulated gradient of management intensity (no‐herbicide control, light herbicide, moderate herbicide, and intensive herbicide treatments), replicated at the scale of whole harvest units (10–19 ha). Vegetation structure, composition, and crop‐tree responses to herbivory varied across the gradient of herbicide application during the first two years of stand establishment, with herbivory effects most evident at light and moderate herbicide treatments. In the moderate herbicide treatment, which approximates management applied to >2.5 million hectares in the Pacific Northwest, United States, foraging by deer and elk resulted in simplified, low‐cover plant communities more closely resembling the intensive herbicide treatment. Herbivory further suppressed the growth of competing vegetation in the light herbicide treatment, improving crop‐tree survival, and providing early evidence of an ecosystem service. By changing community composition and vegetation structure, intensive forest management alters foraging selectivity and subsequent plant–herbivore interactions; initial shifts in early seral communities are likely to influence understory plant communities and tree growth in later stages of forest development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing effective tools for conservation on private lands is increasingly important for global biodiversity conservation; private lands are located in more productive and biologically diverse areas, and they face accelerated rates of land conversion. One strategy is conservation development ( CD) subdivisions, which cluster houses in a small portion of a property and preserve the remaining land as protected open space. Despite widespread use, the characteristics that make CD more or less effective at achieving biodiversity conservation are not well understood. We investigated CD's ability to successfully protect animal populations by examining bird and mammal occurrences in 14 CD subdivisions and four undeveloped areas (range: 14-432 ha) in northern Colorado, USA. Using point count and camera trap data in an occupancy modeling framework, we evaluated the relative importance of nine subdivision design factors (e.g., housing density, proportion of CD protected) and 14 stewardship factors (e.g., presence of livestock, percent native vegetation cover) in influencing the overall community composition and the probability of use by 16 birds and six mammals. We found that habitat use by 75% of birds and 83% of mammals was associated with design characteristics that maximized the natural or undisturbed land area both within and near the development (e.g., proportion of CD protected, total area of protected open space, proportion of natural land cover in the surrounding landscape). These factors were also associated with an increasing dominance of human-sensitive bird species, larger-bodied mammals, and mammals with larger home ranges. Habitat use by birds was also influenced by local land use composition and quality, and use by several bird and mammal species decreased with increased localized disturbances. We found few differences in habitat use between sampling sites in undeveloped areas and in CD subdivisions. These similarities indicate that, if CDs are large enough or located within a matrix of undeveloped land, they can provide habitat that supports similar use patterns as protected areas without housing development. By incorporating characteristics that promote the persistence of sensitive birds and mammals on private lands, CDs have potential to preserve native biodiversity in areas threatened by expanding residential development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary forest management offers a trade-off between the potential positive effects of habitat heterogeneity on biodiversity, and the potential harm to mature forest communities caused by habitat loss and perforation of the forest canopy. While the response of taxonomic diversity to forest management has received a great deal of scrutiny, the response of functional diversity is largely unexplored. However, functional diversity may represent a more direct link between biodiversity and ecosystem function. To examine how forest management affects diversity at multiple spatial scales, we analyzed a long-term data set that captured changes in taxonomic and functional diversity of moths (Lepidoptera), longhorned beetles (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), and breeding birds in response to contemporary silvicultural systems in oak-hickory hardwood forests. We used these data sets to address the following questions: how do even- and uneven-aged silvicultural systems affect taxonomic and functional diversity at the scale of managed landscapes compared to the individual harvested and unharvested forest patches that comprise the landscapes, and how do these silvicultural systems affect the functional similarity of assemblages at the scale of managed landscapes and patches? Due to increased heterogeneity within landscapes, we expected even-aged silviculture to increase and uneven-aged silviculture to decrease functional diversity at the landscape level regardless of impacts at the patch level. Functional diversity responses were taxon-specific with respect to the direction of change and time since harvest. Responses were also consistent across patch and landscape levels within each taxon. Moth assemblage species richness, functional richness, and functional divergence were negatively affected by harvesting, with stronger effects resulting from uneven-aged than even-aged management. Longhorned beetle assemblages exhibited a peak in species richness two years after harvesting, while functional diversity metrics did not differ between harvested and unharvested patches and managed landscapes. The species and functional richness of breeding bird assemblages increased in response to harvesting with more persistent effects in uneven- than in even-aged managed landscapes. For moth and bird assemblages, species turnover was driven by species with more extreme trait combinations. Our study highlights the variability of multi-taxon functional diversity in response to forest management across multiple spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species-area relationships have long been used to assess patterns of species diversity across scales. Here, this concept is extended to spectral diversity using hyperspectral data collected by NASA's Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer ( AVIRIS) over western Michigan. This mixture of mesic forest and agricultural lands offers two end-points on the local-scale diversity continuum; one set of well-mixed forest patches and one set of highly homogeneous agricultural patches. Using the sum of the first three principal component values and the principal components' convex hull volume, spectral diversity was compared within and among these plots and to null expectations for perfectly random and perfectly patchy landscapes. Overall, the spectral diversity-area relationship confirms the patterns that would be expected for this landscape, but this application suggests that this approach could be extended to less well-understood landscapes and could reveal key insights about the relative importance of different drivers of community assembly, even in the absence of additional data about plant functional traits or species' identities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change affects all ecosystems but despite increasing recognition for the needs to integrate Indigenous knowledge with modern climate science, the epistemological differences between the two make it challenging. In this study, we present how Indigenous belief and knowledge system can frame the application of a modeling tool (Climate‐Forest Vegetation Simulator). We focus on managing forest ecosystem services of the Diné (Navajo) Nation as a case study. Most Diné tribal members depend directly on the land for their livelihoods and cultural traditions. The forest plays a vital role in Diné livelihoods through social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic factors. We simulated forest dynamics over time under alternative climate change scenarios and management strategies to identify forest management strategies that will maintain future ecosystem services. We initialized the Climate‐Forest Vegetation Simulator model with data from permanent plots and site‐specific growth models under multiple management systems (no‐management, thinning, burning, and assisted migration planting) and different climate scenarios (no‐climate‐change, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0). Projections of climate change show average losses of basal area by over 65% by 2105, a shift in tree species composition to drier‐adapted species, and a decrease in species diversity. While substantial forest loss was inevitable under the warming climate scenarios, the modeling framework allowed us to evaluate the management treatments, including planting, for conserving multiple tree species in mixed conifer forests, thus providing an anchor for biodiversity. We presented the modeling results and management implications and discuss how they can complement Diné kinship concepts. Our approach is a useful step for framing modern science with Indigenous Knowledge and for developing improved strategies to sustain natural resources and livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]