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Background: Mass vaccination has dramatically reduced the incidence of severe COVID-19, with most cases now presenting as self-limiting upper respiratory tract infections. However, those with co-morbidities, the elderly and immunocompromised, as well as the unvaccinated, remain disproportionately vulnerable to severe COVID-19 and its sequelae. Furthermore, as the effectiveness of vaccination wanes with time, immune escape SARS-CoV-2 variants could emerge to cause severe COVID-19. Reliable prognostic biomarkers for severe disease could be used as early indicator of re-emergence of severe COVID-19 as well as for triaging of patients for antiviral therapy., Methods: We performed a systematic review and re-analysis of 7 publicly available datasets, analysing a total of 140 severe and 181 mild COVID-19 patients, to determine the most consistent differentially regulated genes in peripheral blood of severe COVID-19 patients. In addition, we included an independent cohort where blood transcriptomics of COVID-19 patients were prospectively and longitudinally monitored previously, to track the time in which these gene expression changes occur before nadir of respiratory function. Single cell RNA-sequencing of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from publicly available datasets was then used to determine the immune cell subsets involved., Findings: The most consistent differentially regulated genes in peripheral blood of severe COVID-19 patients were MCEMP1, HLA-DRA and ETS1 across the 7 transcriptomics datasets. Moreover, we found significantly heightened MCEMP1 and reduced HLA-DRA expression as early as four days before the nadir of respiratory function, and the differential expression of MCEMP1 and HLA-DRA occurred predominantly in CD14+ cells. The online platform which we developed is publicly available at https://kuanrongchan-covid19-severity-app-t7l38g.streamlitapp.com/, for users to query gene expression differences between severe and mild COVID-19 patients in these datasets., Interpretation: Elevated MCEMP1 and reduced HLA-DRA gene expression in CD14+ cells during the early phase of disease are prognostic of severe COVID-19., Funding: K.R.C is funded by the National Medical Research Council (NMRC) of Singapore under the Open Fund Individual Research Grant (MOH-000610). E.E.O. is funded by the NMRC Senior Clinician-Scientist Award (MOH-000135-00). J.G.H.L. is funded by the NMRC under the Clinician-Scientist Award (NMRC/CSAINV/013/2016-01). S.K. is funded by the NMRC under the Transition Award. This study was sponsored in part by a generous gift from The Hour Glass., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: The coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has cost lives and economic hardships globally. Various studies have found a number of different factors, such as hyperinflammation and exhausted/suppressed T cell responses to the etiological SARS coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), being associated with severe COVID-19. However, sieving the causative from associative factors of respiratory dysfunction has remained rudimentary., Methods: We postulated that the host responses causative of respiratory dysfunction would track most closely with disease progression and resolution and thus be differentiated from other factors that are statistically associated with but not causative of severe COVID-19. To track the temporal dynamics of the host responses involved, we examined the changes in gene expression in whole blood of 6 severe and 4 non-severe COVID-19 patients across 15 different timepoints spanning the nadir of respiratory function., Findings: We found that neutrophil activation but not type I interferon signaling transcripts tracked most closely with disease progression and resolution. Moreover, transcripts encoding for protein phosphorylation, particularly the serine-threonine kinases, many of which have known T cell proliferation and activation functions, were increased after and may thus contribute to the upswing of respiratory function. Notably, these associative genes were targeted by dexamethasone, but not methylprednisolone, which is consistent with efficacy outcomes in clinical trials., Interpretation: Our findings suggest neutrophil activation as a critical factor of respiratory dysfunction in COVID-19. Drugs that target this pathway could be potentially repurposed for the treatment of severe COVID-19., Funding: This study was sponsored in part by a generous gift from The Hour Glass. EEO and JGL are funded by the National Medical Research Council of Singapore, through the Clinician Scientist Awards awarded by the National Research Foundation of Singapore., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interests Dr Eng Eong Ooi reports grants from National Medical Research Council, Singapore, during the conduct of the study; personal fees from Tychan Private Limited, outside the submitted work; the other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)