Search

Drought has a paramount impact on global agriculture and food security. However, the study on future cropland areas that can incur drought is inadequate. This paper uses input parameters from 7 CMIP6 models for 7 future scenarios (SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP4‐3.4, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) to measure South Asian cropland exposure to drought and its underlying factors. Some defined epochs such as 2021–2040 (near‐term), 2041–2060 (mid‐term), 2081–2100 (long‐term), and 1995–2014 (reference period) are designed to explore diverse outlooks of the change. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and the Run theory methods are applied to detect drought. Results indicate an intensified cropland (under SSP4‐3.4, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain region of South Asia, where mostly the variation occurs among scenarios and periods. Notably, the future cropland exposed to drought will increase in the 2021–2040, and 2041–2060 periods, but it intends to decline during the 2081–2100. Relatively, the exposed cropland will upturn highest by 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term period and decrease by −8.2% (SSP5‐8.5) in the end future. Spatially, distributed cropland in the central, south‐west, and portion of the northeast of South Asia are subjective to be exposed largely, but it can drop greatly across the eastern part by the end future. Importantly, the climate change effect plays a grounding role in future exposure change over the region during the near to mid‐term periods, while the cropland change effect is predominant in the long‐term perspectives. However, these findings signify the urgency of policymaking focusing on drought mitigation to ensure food security. Plain Language Summary: Estimating drought‐induced cropland exposure is the pivotal aspect of agricultural risk assessment for drought impacts. The purposes of this study are to explore (a) how much of the cropland area would be exposed to drought under SSP scenarios; and (b) the degree to which climate change and cropland change effects contribute to changes in exposure. In this regard, we conducted a multi‐model and multi‐scenario‐based analysis to reveal variations in the cropland area exposed to drought in South Asia. Among the seven scenario combinations, the highest percentage of cropland exposed to drought was found at 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term epoch (2041–2060). The climate change effect seems to be the key contributor in the near‐term to mid‐term period, whereas it is the cropland change effect long‐term. To reduce drought risk, we recommend focusing on strong climate change mitigation policy development in the near‐ and mid‐term periods at a global scale and strict land‐use management policy interventions in the long‐term period at the regional level. Key Points: Larger cropland area will experience drought in the 2040–2060 period, while it will decline by the end of 21st centuryThe exposed cropland will increase by 49.2% under SSP3‐7.0 than that of historical timeThe climate change effect is the pivotal contributor in exposure changes over South Asia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Net primary production (NPP) is an important metric of the global carbon cycle, critical for monitoring climate stabilization and for societal economic products. Global NPP should be monitored continuously to adapt societal policy to emerging declines. Plain Language Summary: Global plant growth is being monitored to identify regions that may be in permanent decline due to changing climate. Key Points: Net primary production (NPP) is a critical global carbon cycle componentDeclines in NPP are important for society to respond toNPP influences climate and societal products [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming exacerbates the increase of soil moisture drought by accelerating the water cycle, posing potential threats to food security and ecological sustainability. The design of drought prevention and mitigation policies should be based on the reliable detection of the future change signal in droughts, so it is critical to know when the signal can be detected (Time of Emergence, ToE) in the background noise of the climate system. While the ToE framework has been successfully applied for temperature‐related signal detection, the ToE for changes in drought has not been well studied. Based on 66 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model ensemble members under four Shared Socio‐economic Pathways, we conduct a global ToE analysis of seasonal soil moisture drought characteristics and discuss the impact of different warming levels. Six subregions with robust increase in soil moisture droughts are identified. For drought frequency, most of the subregion's ToE is centered around 2080, however for drought intensity it is much earlier and can even reach around 2040 in AMZ. For drought frequency and drought intensity, approximately 14%–22% and 47%–49% of global land areas would reach ToE in 21st century. The global land areas with ToE of increasing droughts would increase by at least 1/5 when global warming level is kept to 2°C rather than 1.5°C above pre‐industrial conditions. This suggests that limiting global warming can significantly delay the emergence time of increases in seasonal soil moisture droughts, allowing additional adaptation time for the drought‐related sectors. Plain Language Summary: Global warming has increased the frequency of droughts, especially soil moisture droughts with widespread impacts. Thus, when would the soil moisture drought change exceed the noise of the climate system and signal "emerge" (Time of Emergence, ToE) has far‐reaching implication for relevant government departments and stakeholders to make corresponding adaptations. In this work, the future changes in seasonal soil moisture droughts are projected by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6, multi‐model simulations of historical and future climate) data under four possible future development scenarios (named Shared Socio‐economic Pathways), and the effects of controlling global warming levels on the ToE of droughts are discussed. Results show that the frequency of seasonal soil moisture droughts would increase over 42%–48% of global land areas in the future, and 14%–22% of global land areas would show detectable signals of increased drought frequency before 2100. If the global warming level is controlled within 2°C rather than 1.5°C, the areas with ToE would increase by at least one fifth, except for drought intensity under the scenario of the most energy‐saving and emission reduction. This work highlights the risk of rapid emergence of robust soil moisture drought increases under climate change. Key Points: The timing of detectable future changes in seasonal soil moisture droughts are identified through the time of emergence frameworkDetectable increase signals in drought frequency and intensity are predicted in 14%–22% and 47%–49% of land areas by the end of this centuryThe areas of detectable signals for drought characteristics would increase by 1/5 when limiting warming within 2°C compared to 1.5°C [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below‐normal precipitation and terminated by average or above‐normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming‐driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts. Plain Language Summary: Regional warming associated with climate change is already making droughts worse in many places. This trend is expected to continue as global temperatures increase in response to continued emissions of greenhouse gases. With increasing temperatures, soils are projected to lose water to the atmosphere as it draws more and more moisture from the land surface, increasing drought risk. At the same time, climate change is also projected to shift precipitation patterns. This means it is important to understand how changes in rainfall will cause and end droughts in the future. Using state‐of‐the‐art climate models, we investigate how future warming will impact the influence of precipitation on soil moisture in the Mediterranean and Western North America. Our results suggest that current levels of monthly precipitation will be insufficient to alleviate drought conditions in a warmer world. Key Points: Warming causes declines in soil moisture in the Mediterranean and Western North AmericaThe probability of a moderate soil moisture drought increases during both low and high precipitation anomalies, even at 1°C of warmingThe ability of large positive precipitation anomalies to terminate soil moisture droughts will be substantially reduced in a warmer world [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reliable understanding of linkages between meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts (MD, HD, and AD respectively) is crucial to building resilience and planning for future climate changes. Despite Australia being prone to severe droughts, lagtimes of propagation (and recovery), from meteorological to hydrological and agricultural droughts across its large hydroclimatic regions, are poorly understood. Therefore, we investigate the characteristics of drought propagation and recovery time lags for droughts of four timescales and a combination of drought onset and cessation criteria in 407 unregulated catchments within six major precipitation zones across the country. We find that the propagation and recovery lags depend on climatic conditions, drought criteria and timescales. The median of catchment average propagation times from MD to HD across Australia varied from 0.8 to 1.7 months for 1‐month timescales, increasing to 2.2–5.0 months for 12‐month timescales. The corresponding recovery lagtimes were 1.3–3.7 and 1.7–7.0 months respectively. Similarly, the median of catchment average propagation times from MD to AD ranged from 0.8 to 1.9 months for 1‐month timescales, increasing to 0.6–5.0 months for 12‐month. The corresponding recovery lagtimes were 0.7–2.8 and 0.3–8.7 months respectively. For droughts of smaller timescales, propagation and recovery lags are linearly correlated with recovery lagtimes consistently greater than propagation times. However, as the timescale increases, these relationships weaken suggesting effects of other catchment attributes (e.g., groundwater contributions) on lag relationships. Plain Language Summary: The primary focus of the research is to investigate the time delay between the occurrence of the lack of precipitation (meteorological droughts) and its subsequent impact on river flow (hydrological drought) and soil moisture (agricultural drought). Understanding these delays is crucial for drought planning and management. This study uses observed precipitation, river flow, and satellite‐based soil moisture data spanning over 40 years across six major precipitation zones within Australia. The delays between drought types (meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural) vary depending on the specific location within Australia. The criteria used to define the onset and end of droughts, as well as the drought duration, also influence the observed delays. The average delay from meteorological to hydrological or agricultural droughts increases with longer timescales. For example, hydrological droughts measured on 1‐month timescale have shorter delays (0.8–1.7 months), while 12‐month droughts have longer delays (2.2–5 months). Similarly, shorter droughts have shorter recovery times, while longer droughts have longer recovery times. For shorter timescale droughts, there is a clear relationship between the delays with end delays consistently greater than the start delays. However, as droughts become larger and more prolonged, the relationship weakens, suggesting the influence of other catchment attributes. Key Points: Drought propagation and recovery behaviors for a large sample of catchments under varied climatic zones within Australia are investigatedPropagation and recovery lag relationships are well‐defined for shorter droughts but are increasingly indefinable for longer droughtsPropagation (TP) and recovery lags (TR) depend on drought severity with shorter TP to milder droughts and longer TR to milder droughts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many agricultural regions in China are likely to become appreciably wetter or drier as the global climate warming increases. However, the impact of these climate change patterns on the intensity of soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (GHGI, GHG emissions per unit of crop yield) has not yet been rigorously assessed. By integrating an improved agricultural ecosystem model and a meta‐analysis of multiple field studies, we found that climate change is expected to cause a 20.0% crop yield loss, while stimulating soil GHG emissions by 12.2% between 2061 and 2090 in China's agricultural regions. A wetter‐warmer (WW) climate would adversely impact crop yield on an equal basis and lead to a 1.8‐fold‐ increase in GHG emissions relative to those in a drier‐warmer (DW) climate. Without water limitation/excess, extreme heat (an increase of more than 1.5°C in average temperature) during the growing season would amplify 15.7% more yield while simultaneously elevating GHG emissions by 42.5% compared to an increase of below 1.5°C. However, when coupled with extreme drought, it would aggravate crop yield loss by 61.8% without reducing the corresponding GHG emissions. Furthermore, the emission intensity in an extreme WW climate would increase by 22.6% compared to an extreme DW climate. Under this intense WW climate, the use of nitrogen fertilizer would lead to a 37.9% increase in soil GHG emissions without necessarily gaining a corresponding yield advantage compared to a DW climate. These findings suggest that the threat of a wetter‐warmer world to efforts to reduce GHG emissions intensity may be as great as or even greater than that of a drier‐warmer world. Plain Language Summary: Both climate observations and projections suggest that warmer temperatures will intensify convective precipitation, resulting in drier regions becoming drier and wetter regions becoming wetter. By integrating an improved agricultural ecosystem model and a meta‐analysis of multiple field studies, this study has investigated the effects of drier‐warmer (DW) and wetter‐warmer (WW) climates on crop yield and soil greenhouse gas emissions in China. Our findings indicate that the cost of greenhouse gas emissions in a wetter‐warmer world for crop production could be as high as or even higher than in a drier‐warmer world. Moreover, this study suggests that effective climate mitigation practices need to account for the combined effects of extreme climate changes and nitrogen addition on greenhouse gas emissions and crop production. Therefore, China would need to exert considerably more effort in a future with warmer and wetter conditions to achieve its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Key Points: Climate change would cause a 20% crop yield loss and an increase of 12.2% in soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 2061 and 2090A Wetter‐Warmer climate would cause a more significant crop yield loss and about double the GHG emissions of a Drier‐Warmer climateNitrogen fertilizer‐induced GHG emissions in a Wetter‐Warmer climate would increase 37.9% compared to those in a Drier‐Warmer climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To aid California's water sector to better understand and manage future climate extremes, we present a method for creating a regionally consistent ensemble of plausible daily future climate and streamflow scenarios that represent natural climate variability captured in a network of tree‐ring chronologies, and then embed anthropogenic climate change trends within those scenarios. We use 600 years of paleo‐reconstructed weather regimes to force a stochastic weather generator, which we develop for five subbasins in the San Joaquin Valley of California. To assess the compound effects of climate change, we create temperature series that reflect projected scenarios of warming and precipitation series that have been scaled to reflect thermodynamically driven shifts in the distribution of daily precipitation. We then use these weather scenarios to force hydrologic models for each of the five subbasins. The paleo‐forced streamflow scenarios highlight periods in the region's past that produce flood and drought extremes that surpass those in the modern record and exhibit large non‐stationarity through the reconstruction. Variance decomposition is employed to characterize the contribution of natural variability and climate change to variability in decision‐relevant metrics related to floods and drought. Our results show that a large portion of variability in individual subbasin and spatially compounding extreme events can be attributed to natural variability, but that anthropogenic climate changes become more influential at longer planning horizons. The joint importance of climate change and natural variability in shaping extreme floods and droughts is critical to resilient water systems planning and management in the San Joaquin. Plain Language Summary: California experiences cycles of floods and droughts that can be driven by both natural variability and climate change. The specific role these drivers play in impacting extremes is uncertain, but can influence how to best plan and manage regional water systems for future extremes. To better quantify the role of these drivers, we introduce a framework that utilizes a 600‐year tree‐ring reconstruction to create long sequences of plausible future weather and streamflow for key basins in the San Joaquin Valley. We find that a large portion of variability in extremes can be attributed to natural variability at shorter planning horizons, but that human‐driven climate changes are influential at longer planning horizons (>30 years). Furthermore, decision‐makers' perceptions of important drivers can be skewed depending on the specific definitions used to analyze floods and droughts, which can present significant challenges for adaptation planning and infrastructure development tied to tracking hydroclimate variables. This study also illustrates the vast variability in extremes that the region has experienced over the past 600 years and highlights the pitfalls of defining risk based on a limited historical record. Key Points: We introduce a framework to create 600‐year ensembles of future weather and streamflow for basins in the San Joaquin ValleyWe discover vast variability and non‐stationarity in flood and drought extremes in the region over the past 600 yearsThe joint importance of climate change and natural variability in shaping floods and droughts is critical to water systems planning [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During and after recent La Niña events, the decline of the eastern East African (EA) March‐April‐May (MAM) rains has set the stage for life‐threatening sequential October‐November‐December (OND) and MAM droughts. The MAM 2022 drought was the driest on record, preceded by three poor rainy seasons, and followed by widespread starvation. Connecting these dry seasons is an interaction between La Niña and climate change. This interaction provides important opportunities for long‐lead prediction and proactive disaster risk management, but needs exploration. Here, for the first time, we use observations, reanalyses, and climate change simulations to show that post‐1997 OND La Niña events are robust precursors of: (a) strong MAM "Western V sea surface temperature Gradients" in the Pacific, which (b) help produce large increases in moisture convergence and atmospheric heating near Indonesia, which in turn produce (c) regional shifts in moisture transports and vertical velocities, which (d) help explain the increased frequency of dry EA MAM rainy seasons. We also show that, at 20‐year time scales, increases in atmospheric heating in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool region are attributable to warming Western V SST, which is in turn largely attributable to climate change. As energy builds up in the oceans and atmosphere, during and after La Niña events, we see stronger heating and heat convergence over warm tropical waters near Indonesia. The result of this causal chain is that increased Warm Pool atmospheric heating and moisture convergence sets the stage for dangerous sequential droughts in EA. These factors link EA drying to a stronger Walker Circulation and explain the predictable risks associated with recent La Niña events. Plain Language Summary: In 2022, an unprecedented sequence of five sequential failed rainy seasons, exacerbated by high global food and fuel prices, drove an exceptional food security crisis in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya, pushing more than 20 million people into extreme hunger. The potential for famine loomed in some areas. Beginning in late 2020, this was the longest and most severe drought recorded in the Horn of Africa in at least 70 years, resulting in multiple failed harvests and large‐scale livestock deaths that decimated the food and income sources of rural communities. It placed increasing pressure on the cost of food among urban communities and led to rising levels of destitution and displacement. These droughts occurred against the backdrop of the "East Africa Climate Paradox", which centers on the discrepancy between climate change model projections of increased East African March–April–May rains, and many observational studies pointing toward declines. Before the western Pacific Ocean warmed dramatically in 1998, the link between La Niña events and dry March‐April‐May (MAM) rains was weak. Since 1998, the link has been very strong. This set the stage for dangerous sequential droughts in October‐November‐December and MAM, such as in 2010/11, 2016/17, 2020/21, and 2021/22. Here, we link the decline to an important question: Why are so many recent La Niña events associated with dry March–April–May rains? La Niña events tend to reach their maximum intensity in the boreal fall and winter, often producing East African droughts during the October‐November‐December "short rains". We explain the link between La Niña and dry MAM seasons using observations, reanalyses, and the latest (Phase 6) climate change simulations. While climate change models do not recreate the observed East African drying, they recreate the observed west Pacific warming very well. Climate change, not natural decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, has increased west Pacific sea surface temperatures. This, in turn, is increasing the "Western V Gradient", a measure of the east‐west differences in Pacific Ocean temperatures. When this gradient is negative, there are frequent East African droughts, and this happens in a predictable way during or after recent La Niña events. This allows us to predict many dry rainy seasons approximately 8 months in advance. Such predictive capacity is important, because the frequency of strong Pacific temperature gradients is increasing. We show that climate change simulations recreate this tendency for stronger Pacific SST gradients, and project that it will continue over the coming decades. What connects East African droughts to Pacific temperature gradients? We answer this question by examining observed atmospheric heating, moisture transports, and moisture convergence patterns. In general, eastern East Africa is dry because it resides along the western edge of the Indian Ocean branch of the Indo‐Pacific "Walker Circulation". Across eastern East Africa and the western Indian Ocean, and over the central and eastern Pacific, rainfall and moisture levels are low. In the area around Indonesia (the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans), winds drive moisture convergence and heavy rains. Here, building on many years of research by scientists working for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, we show for the first time that the strength of the Walker Circulation can be quantified using atmospheric heating and moisture convergence. Since 1998, when there has been a La Niña in October–November–December, there has almost always been strong March‐April‐May heating and moisture convergence around Indonesia, and suppressed rainfall in eastern East Africa. Climate change‐enhanced La Niñas amplify the Pacific trade winds which produce strong March–April–May sea surface temperature gradients. These gradients amplify the Walker Circulation, and reduce moisture convergence and ascending atmospheric motions over the eastern Horn of Africa. We conclude with a look toward the future evolution of the Walker Circulation by relating the observed strength of the Walker Circulation to 20‐year averages of western and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. Both play a significant role, and together explain 96% of the observed variability. The observed Walker Circulation intensification is primarily driven by the west Pacific, which in turn is strongly related to climate change. CMIP6 projections of Pacific sea surface temperatures, combined with the observed empirical relationships, imply further strong increases in Walker Circulation intensities. Hence, additional rainfall declines appear likely, especially during or directly following La Niña events. More optimistically, the process‐based analyses presented here suggest that many of the dry seasons may be predictable at long lead times, based on Pacific sea surface temperature gradients. Key Points: Human‐induced warming in the Western V region of the Pacific, combined with La Niña, has produced frequent, predictable March‐April‐May droughtsThermodynamic analyses link these droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation driven by predictable warming in the Western V regionProjected CMIP6 SST increases imply a tendency for continued Walker Circulation intensification and associated drought risks in eastern East Africa [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This commentary discusses new advances in the predictability of east African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural decision‐making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts, 23 million east Africans faced starvation in 2022, requiring >$2 billion in aid. Here, we update climate attribution studies showing that these droughts resulted from an interaction of climate change and La Niña. Then we describe, for the first time, how attribution‐based insights can be combined with the latest dynamical models to predict droughts at 8‐month lead‐times. We then discuss behavioral and social barriers to forecast use, and review literature examining how EWS might (or might not) enhance agro‐pastoral advisories and humanitarian interventions. Finally, in reference to the new World Meteorological Organization "Early Warning for All" Executive Action Plan, we conclude with a set of recommendations supporting actionable and authoritative climate services. Trust, urgency, and accuracy can help overcome barriers created by limitedfunding, uncertain tradeoffs, and inertia. Understanding how climate change is producing predictable climate extremes now, investing in African‐led EWS, and building better links between EWS and agricultural development efforts can support long‐term adaptation, reducing chronic needs for billions of dollars in reactive assistance. In Africa and beyond, climate change brings increasingly extreme sea surface temperature (SST) gradients. Using climate models, we can often see these extremes coming. Prediction, therefore, offers opportunities for proactive risk management and improved advisory services, if we can create effective societal linkages via cross‐silo collaborations. Plain Language Summary: Eastern East Africa is extremely food insecure. Millions of farmers and pastoralists rely on two meager rainy seasons that arrive twice a year. In the 13 seasons since late 2016, the region experienced eight droughts and three exceptionally wet seasons. Seven droughts were linked to very strong Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, which arose through an interaction between climate change and La Niña. Climate change will bring more extreme Pacific and Indian Ocean SST gradients. Here, for the first time, we show that these gradients can be very well predicted by the current generation of climate models. We then discuss how such information might be used to inform risk management, agriculture, and livestock management practices. The IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center, Ethiopian and Kenyan meteorological agencies, and other groups are providing increasingly accurate climate information. This creates opportunities for more proactive and effective agricultural and pastoral advisory services. Trust, urgency and accuracy can lower uncertainty, reduce risk aversion, and empower poor households and cash‐strapped institutions to act and innovate. Investing now in collaborative African climate systems, participatory advisory services and proactive risk management will help counter these threatening climate extremes. Key Points: Climate change and La Niña are producing extreme Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, which can be predicted very far in advanceThese Pacific SST forecasts provide robust opportunities for predicting well wet and dry outcomes in East AfricaTrust, urgency and accuracy can overcome barriers due to limited funding, uncertain tradeoffs, and inertia by improving advisory services [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current methods for climate change assessment ignore the significant differences in uncertainty in model projections of the two key constituents of drought, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. We present here a new basis for assessing future drought using climate model simulations that addresses this limitation. The new method estimates the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in a two‐stage process. The first stage of our proposed approach is to derive the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using reliable atmospheric variables, which are filtered with a wavelet‐based spectral transformation. This derived SPI is then converted to an equivalent SPEI by combining it with climate model evapotranspiration simulations. We assess the performance of our proposed approach across Australia. The consistency of general circulation model (GCM) drought projections, in terms of both frequency and severity, is improved using the derived SPI. Incorporating evapotranspiration further improves the consistency of the multiple GCMs and drought time scales. The proposed framework can also be generalized to other water resources applications, where the differences in GCM uncertainty for precipitation and evapotranspiration affect climate change impact assessments. Plain Language Summary: Drought is affected by both rainfall and evapotranspiration. Drought indices represent drought severity compared to normal conditions as a function of time. Some drought indices are based on rainfall alone and some use both rainfall and evapotranspiration in the calculations. To understand future drought risk, simulations from climate models are needed. Unfortunately, different climate models often disagree on amounts and patterns of rainfall in the future, the disagreement being considerably more on rainfall than for evapotranspiration. In this study, we attempt to reduce the impact of these differences by developing a new method to estimate future drought. We used a mathematical method known as wavelets to estimate drought indices based on rainfall. Evapotranspiration is then used directly from the climate model and combined with the rainfall based drought index to create one overall drought index. We used projections from multiple climate models to understand if our new method led to a greater agreement in how often and severe future droughts may be. Our results confirm that the new method offers greater consistency in drought projections for the future. Key Points: Current methods for projecting drought ignore differences in uncertainty between P and ET simulationsA new basis for projecting drought is proposed that explicitly accounts for relative uncertainty between P and ETOur results show that the new method offers greater consistency in drought projections for the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting the agriculture, water, and energy sectors in East Africa and the impact is projected to increase in the future. To allow adaptation and mitigation of the impacts, we assessed the changes in climate and their impacts on hydrology and hydrological extremes in East Africa. We used outputs from seven CMIP‐6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 1981–2010 is used as a reference period. The output from GCMs are statistically downscaled using the Bias Correction‐Constructed Analogs with Quantile mapping reordering method to drive a high‐resolution hydrological model. The Variable Infiltration Capacity and vector‐based routing models are used to simulate runoff and streamflow across 68,300 river reaches in East Africa. The results show an increase in annual precipitation (up to 35%) in Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya and a decrease (up to 4.5%) in Southern Tanzania in the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). During the long rainy season (March–May), precipitation is projected to be higher (up to 43%) than the reference period in Southern Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda but lower (up to −20%) in Tanzania. Large parts of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Southern Ethiopia show an increase in precipitation (up to 38%) during the short rainy season (October–December). Temperature and evapotranspiration will continue to increase in the future. Further, annual and seasonal streamflow and hydrological extremes (droughts and floods) are projected to increase in large parts of the region throughout the 21st century calling for site‐specific adaptation. Key Points: Precipitation, precipitation extremes, and temperature will increase in large parts of East Africa in the 21st centuryHydrological extremes (droughts and floods) will increase in the future in large parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and TanzaniaSite‐specific adaptation measures are urgently required to minimize the adverse impact of hydroclimate extremes in East Africa [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sudden swings between drought/heat and pluvial could cause adverse impacts far surpassing the sum of their individual effect. We propose a concept of intraseasonal "compound whiplash event" (CWE) to investigate sudden swings between wet and the compounding warm‐dry events and their changes under climate change. We find that global warming would likely escalate the compound whiplash frequency to two to three and half times (two to three times) by the end of the 21st century under the business‐as‐usual scenario (mitigated scenario). The growing threat of CWE not only stems from the increasing occurrence but also from its intensified severity and extended spatial coverage. Among all sub‐regions, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) region would expect the largest intensification. The resulting population exposure would soar two‐to‐three‐fold over Asia. Populous regions such as North India and EASM region might face a much worse situation than the western China where population is sparse and projected to decline. Moreover, the seasonality of swings with opposite directions would further split as a response to the skewed Asian monsoon annual cycle, leading to more frequent heat‐drought to pluvial swings in spring, and more opposite‐direction swings in autumn, disrupting cultivation and water management convention. Plain Language Summary: Either drought/heat or pluvial already causes adverse impacts on ecosystem and human society. The swing between these extremes could escalate their impact to the next level, far beyond their simple addition. Though some studies have investigated weather whiplash on longer time scales, such as months to years, intraseasonal whiplashes on an event basis are rarely explored. Hence, we propose a concept of "compound whiplash event" to investigate the intraseasonal alternation between warm‐dry and wet conditions and their potential changes in a warmer future climate. We find that global warming not only leads to one‐to‐two and half times more compound weather whiplashes by the end of 21st century under the business‐as‐usual scenario, but also intensifies their severity and extends their extent. Within Asia, East Asian summer monsoon region will likely face the largest increase. As a result, the population exposed to the compound weather whiplash would double or even triple, especially in the populous regions with further population growth. In addition, with skewed Asian monsoon annual cycle, the seasonality of swings expects a coherent shift, that is, more heat‐drought swings in spring and more opposite‐direction swings in autumn, potentially posing more disruption in agricultural and water management activities. Key Points: Intraseasonal compound weather whiplash in Asia is introduced and defined using a 3D event‐based approachCompound weather whiplash is projected to triple with intensified severity and shifted seasonality by the end of the 21st centurySouthern and eastern Asia will see the most increase in population exposure while population decline tempers the increase elsewhere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water utilities' supply systems are vulnerable to several climate‐related hazards, including droughts, floods and cyclones. Here we propose a generally applicable framework for conducting multi‐hazard risk assessments of water supply systems and use it to quantify the impact of present and future climate extremes on the national water supply network in Jamaica. The proposed framework involves stress‐testing a model of the system with a large set of spatially coherent drought, cyclone and pluvial and fluvial flood events to calculate the number of water users whose supplies would be disrupted during an event, that is, the Customer disruption days (CDD). We estimate the total multi‐hazard annual expected disruption to be approximately 5 days per year per utility customer under present conditions. This is increased by a factor of between 2 and 2.5 when end‐of‐century climate scenarios are propagated through the model. Our analysis shows that more high probability drought events lead to greater CDD compared with asset damage events. However, extreme asset damage events, despite manifesting over shorter timescales (days) compared to drought events (months), can lead to more widespread CDD. This quantified risk framework would allow utility managers to compare the risk of both asset damage‐ and water shortage‐induced disruptions via a common, decision‐relevant metric. However, applications to other utilities would require tailored hazard modeling approaches. The proposed risk assessment is intended to inform prioritization of infrastructure investments, ranging from asset protection to drought mitigation projects, with the goal of enhancing water supply resilience in the face of a changing climate. Key Points: We propose a spatial multi‐hazard risk framework for analyzing present‐day and future climate risks to water usersWe propose the use of customer disruption days as a common metric for comparing different hazards impactsThe framework can be used by decision makers to prioritize investments across asset protection against flooding and cyclones, and drought mitigation options [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many years now, studies on climate change impacts on continental hydrology have suffered from conflicting results between different approaches. On the one hand, studies relying on widely used, simple metrics of land water availability, such as the Aridity Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index, depict predominantly drier future land surface conditions, when driven by climate change projections from global models. On the other hand, the same climate models also generate their own land surface projections, which exhibit balanced changes in land hydrology, with spatially heterogenous changes in soil moisture or runoff. Writing in Earth's Future, Scheff et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002814) provide a comprehensive modeling assessment of the various processes responsible for these contrasted projections, resolving this conflict and thereby improving our understanding of future land hydrology. Key Points: Simple climate‐based metrics and full‐complexity land model simulations yield conflicting results regarding the future of the water cycleScheff et al. (2022) highlight the processes responsible for this discrepancyChanges in plant physiology and in rainfall distribution are key drivers of hydrological changes, which are omitted from simple metrics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Every year, millions of people are at risk due to droughts in South Asia (SA). The likely impacts of droughts are projected to increase with global warming. This study uses the new ensemble mean of 23 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections to quantify future changes in increasing drought risks and associated socioeconomic exposure across SA and its subregions under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming. We used two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. The most likely realization copula functions are used to model the joint distribution of drought severity and duration. Simultaneously, changes in the bivariate return period are calculated under a warming climate. The frequency of 50‐year historical droughts (under a bivariate framework) might double across 80% of the SA land area under 1.5°C of warming. Conversely, 12% of SA landmasses may suffer extreme droughts under 2°C of warming. The severe drought episode frequency is expected to increase under 1.5°C (40%–75%) and 2°C (60%–90%) of warming relative to the recent climate. The largest exposure increase is projected in R2 and R4, then R1. Additionally, 75% (65%) of the SA population (GDP) could suffer from increased drought risks under the 1.5°C warmer climate, whereas the additional 0.5°C warming will lead to an unbearable regional situation. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C can significantly reduce the drought risk influence in SA. These findings can help disaster‐risk managers to adopt climate‐smart management strategies. Plain Language Summary: The world has warmed rapidly since 1970, encouraging efforts to reduce climate change and to stabilize global temperatures to between 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets above preindustrial levels. With these aims, the present study explores the spatiotemporal changes in future drought events and their associated socioeconomic exposure over South Asia (SA) and its subregions under a warmer climate. We find that amplified drought risks are projected to increase over southern and southwestern SA under 1.5°C of warming for the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. As the world continues to warm, some land locations, such as the interior of South India and Pakistan, may experience a temporary emergence of a climate change signal that weakens if the climate stabilizes and the Paris Agreement goals are met. In addition, we also found that the frequency of 50‐year historical droughts might double across 80% of the SA land area under the 1.5°C warming target. In contrast, limiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C can increase the projected population exposures to increased drought risks by almost half. We believe that the study findings will help disaster‐risk managers adopt climate‐smart policies. Key Points: The frequency of 50‐year historical droughts might double across 80% of South Asia (SA) land area under 1.5°C warmingSouthwestern SA is projected to have the largest increase in exposure compared to the other regionsLimiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C can increase the projected population exposures to increased drought risks by almost half [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth System Models' complex land components simulate a patchwork of increases and decreases in surface water availability when driven by projected future climate changes. Yet, commonly‐used simple theories for surface water availability, such as the Aridity Index (P/E0) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), obtain severe, globally dominant drying when driven by those same climate changes, leading to disagreement among published studies. In this work, we use a common modeling framework to show that Earth System Model (ESM) simulated runoff‐ratio and soil‐moisture responses become much more consistent with the P/E0 and PDSI responses when several previously known factors that the latter do not account for are cut out of the simulations. This reconciles the disagreement and makes the full ESM responses more understandable. For ESM runoff ratio, the most important factor causing the more positive global response compared to P/E0 is the concentration of precipitation in time with greenhouse warming. For ESM soil moisture, the most important factor causing the more positive global response compared to PDSI is the effect of increasing carbon dioxide on plant physiology, which also drives most of the spatial variation in the runoff ratio enhancement. The effect of increasing vapor‐pressure deficit on plant physiology is a key secondary factor for both. Future work will assess the utility of both the ESMs and the simple indices for understanding observed, historical trends. Plain Language Summary: Rivers and groundwater provide almost all water used by humans, and soil moisture is critical for vegetation and crops worldwide. Supercomputer model simulations of rivers, groundwater and soil moisture under future global warming routinely project that some world regions will experience increases in the availability of these resources, while others will experience decreases. Yet the simple formulas that scientists have traditionally relied on to measure climatic "drought" and "aridity" obtain large future decreases in water availability (drying) almost everywhere. This has led to confusion in prior studies and reports. In this study, we resolve this apparent paradox by pinpointing exactly why the supercomputer simulations are less pessimistic than the simple formulas. For rivers and groundwater, the most important reason is that precipitation gets "flashier" and more intense with global warming. For soil moisture, the most important reason is that increasing carbon dioxide allows vegetation to use less water, keeping more water in the soil. Both of these processes are included in the computer models, but not in the simple formulas. This new understanding gives us greater confidence that the computer models are behaving reasonably. Key Points: Community Land Model 5 runoff ratio and soil moisture responses to climate change closely follow the Aridity Index (P/E0) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in a simplified simulationRunoff ratio increases much more than P/E0 in full simulations primarily due to changes in the temporal pattern of precipitationSoil moisture increases more than PDSI in full simulations primarily due to CO2 and vapor pressure deficit effects on plant physiology [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding present and future impacts of drought on the terrestrial carbon budget is of great significance to the evaluation of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance and terrestrial carbon sink. Here, we evaluate the effect of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) associated with drought through the difference between the mean NPP in the drought and normal years during a specific time period (30 years). Then, the NPP effects in different vegetation types and climatic zones under baseline stage (1981–2010) and future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) is assessed. The results indicate that the negative NPP extremes are captured in most regions, except for the high‐latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. The NPP loss caused by extreme droughts in 2071–2100 is largest under RCPs, followed by the effects of severe and moderate droughts. Regionally, central United States, southern Africa, central Asia, India, Amazon tropical rainforest, and Australia are projected to experience a significant increase in negative NPP extremes and most of these regions are in arid and semi‐arid and tropical rain forest areas. In contrast, tropical Asia suffers little drought effects. For different vegetation, Evergreen Broadleaf Forest, Closed Shrubland, Open Shrubland, Croplands, and Grassland are the most affected by drought. The largest NPP loss occurs in most part of regions under RCP4.5 scenario, not RCP8.5. Climate change is projected to play the largest role in aggravating the risk of drought‐induced NPP reduction. And meanwhile, the adverse effects of drought on vegetation may be resisted through rational fertilizer utilization and land management in future. Plain Language Summary: Drought is already the most widespread factor affecting terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) via direct physiological effects, such as water limitation and heat stress. Nevertheless, the effects of drought on terrestrial ecosystems under future climate change are still highly uncertain. In this study, we assess and compare the present and future impact of drought on vegetation net primary productivity. The results suggest that global drought events are projected to be intensified and frequent in the coming decades. Drought‐related NPP reduction is prevalent especially in the arid and semi‐arid areas and tropical regions at the end of 21st century. Extreme drought depresses NPP most under RCPs, followed by severe and moderate droughts. For vegetation, the adverse impact on NPP induced by drought under RCPs is increasingly significant in Evergreen Broadleaf Forest, Grassland, Savanna, and Cropland. Climate change is projected to play the largest role in aggravating the risk of drought‐induced NPP reduction. These results highlight the growing vulnerability of ecosystem productivity to droughts, implying increased adverse impacts of these climate extremes on terrestrial carbon sinks. Key Points: Net primary productivity (NPP) reduction associated with drought is prevalent especially in the arid and semi‐arid areas and tropical regionsAdverse impact of drought on NPP under RCPs is large in Evergreen Broadleaf Forest, Shrubland, Grassland, and CroplandThe largest NPP loss occurs under RCP4.5. Climate change plays the largest role in aggravating the risk of drought‐induced NPP reduction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological to hydrological drought propagation has been widely studied to reflect the relationship between these drought categories and better understand drought mechanisms. However, global warming may alter the drought propagation features, which are not fully understood. This study aims to investigate changes in meteorological and hydrological drought conditions, especially their propagation features in 1.5–3.0°C warmer climates for 8,655 watersheds globally. First, the three‐month scale standardized precipitation index and the standardized runoff index are calculated based on the precipitation simulated by the 15 global climate models and the runoff simulated by the four hydrological models, respectively. Drought events are then identified using the run theory, followed by the calculation of drought propagation features (i.e., pooling, lag, and lengthening) for matched meteorological and hydrological droughts. As a result, both meteorological and hydrological drought conditions (i.e., duration and severity) would relieve in warmer climates due to increased precipitation for regions excluding Western North America, South America, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, East Asia, and Australia. However, the drought conditions would be more severe during drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts over most regions. During drought propagation, the worsening drought conditions over half of the regions would be more serious first and then relieved with the rising temperature. These results indicate that efforts to slow down global warming can suppress the deterioration of drought conditions in the propagation. Plain Language Summary: Droughts can be categorized into meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socioeconomic types from different impacted aspects. Investigating meteorological to hydrological drought propagation can reflect the relationship between these two drought categories to understand the drought mechanism better. However, it is not fully understood whether global warming would alter the drought propagation features or not. Therefore, we evaluated the change of meteorological and hydrological drought conditions, especially their propagation features in 1.5 to 3.0°C warmer climates for 8,655 watersheds around the world. Here we show that both meteorological and hydrological drought conditions would relieve in warmer climates due to the increase of precipitation for regions excluding Western North America, South America, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, East Asia, and Australia. However, the drought conditions would be more severe during drought propagation over most regions in warmer climates. Our findings promote a better understanding of drought propagation changes under global warming. Key Points: Both meteorological and hydrological drought conditions are projected to relieve in warmer climates for around half of global regionsThe duration and severity developing from meteorological to hydrological droughts would be more severe over most regionsThe worsening duration and severity during the propagation over half of the regions would intensify first and then ease in warmer climates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concurrent hot extremes and droughts undoubtedly aggravate the impacts of droughts on agriculture, natural environment, and human society. Recent studies mainly focus on the trends and changes in frequency and severity of compound drought and hot extreme events. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the changes in mean temperature during drought conditions. In this study, we investigated the mean temperature changes during droughts in observed and projected periods across China on a century time‐scale and explored the possible contributions of land surface‐atmosphere interactions or atmospheric moisture conditions to these changes. China experienced reduced rather than amplified warming under droughts both in observations and future projections. A drier condition or a higher emission scenario was projected to result in a larger range of mean temperature changes under droughts in the future. We attributed the reduced mean temperatures under droughts to increasing winter droughts and higher atmospheric moisture conditions. This study provides a reference for water resource management, drought risk reduction, as well as mitigation of agricultural crop loss and public health damage. Plain Language Summary: Previous climate studies generally focus on the trend analysis of concurrent droughts and hot extremes, especially in summer. There are gaps in our knowledge on how does the mean temperature under droughts change under climate warming, and what are the underlying driving factors? We investigated the changes in mean temperature during droughts across China using monthly observed data and projected data. China experienced reduced rather than amplified warming under droughts both in observations and future projections. A drier condition or a higher emission scenario could result in a larger range of mean temperature changes under droughts in the future. Increasing winter droughts and higher atmospheric moisture conditions resulted in the reduced mean temperatures under droughts. Our study provides references for policymakers to inform water resource management, drought risk reduction, and mitigation of agricultural crop loss. Key Points: China experienced reduced rather than amplified warming under drought conditions both in observations and future projectionsA drier condition or a higher emission scenario resulted in a larger range of mean temperature changes under future droughtsWe attributed the reduced mean temperatures under droughts to increasing winter droughts and higher atmospheric moisture conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a changing climate, drought has become a common natural disaster. In our study, population exposure to drought over the Pearl River Basin (PRB) under climate change is investigated. Drought frequency is evaluated through the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The data needed for SPEI calculation are obtained based on the ensemble of multiple global climate model (GCM) outputs. Population exposure to drought for the future is assessed by combining drought frequency under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three downscaled population scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3). Moreover, the main contribution (and their interactions) of GCM, RCP, and SSP to the sources of uncertainty on population exposure projections is explored through multilevel factorial analysis. Results indicate that the temperature and precipitation would continually increase for the future, and the increase in drought frequency is more substantial during the 2080s than in the 2050s. Meanwhile, population exposure to drought accounts for 21.60% of the total population in 1976–2005 over the PRB area. During the 2050s, it would decrease to 11.98–12.28% under RCP4.5 and 14.15–14.40% under RCP8.5, respectively. By the 2080s, population exposure would slightly reduce under RCP4.5 and increase to 28.86–29.44% under RCP8.5. GCM is the primary uncertainty source of drought exposure in the 2050s, with contribution rates of 72.41%, 57.47%, 51.10%, and 78.71% to the four responses. In comparison, by the 2080s, RCP is the primary contributing factor, with contribution rates of 53.91%, 44.92%, 64.20%, and 48.00%, respectively. Plain Language Summary: Climate change has an extensive impact on future drought conditions in the Pearl River Basin. Therefore, the projection of population exposure to drought is essential for making informed decisions toward climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study aims at exploring the changes in population exposure to droughts (e.g., moderate, severe, and extreme) under multiple emission‐population scenarios and quantifying the main contribution (and their interactions) of global climate model (GCM), RCP, and SSP to the sources of uncertainty on population exposure. The temperature and precipitation would continually increase for the future, and the increase in drought frequency is more substantial during the 2080s than in the 2050s. As a result, future population exposure to moderate, severe, and extreme drought would decrease in the 2050s, under two RCPs. While during the 2080s, there is a slight decrease under RCP4.5 and an apparent increase under RCP8.5. GCM is the primary uncertainty source of drought exposure in the 2050s to the four responses. In comparison, by the 2080s, RCP is the major contributing factor. Key Points: Population exposure to drought for the future is projected through the combination of multiple emission‐population scenariosPopulation exposure to drought would increase apparently in the 2080s under RCP8.5Global climate model (GCM) and RCP are the primary uncertainty sources of drought exposure in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than fivefold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia. Plain Language Summary: Global warming changes the frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of extreme events. We analyze computer simulations of river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves under past, present‐day, and potential future climate conditions. Our results show that global warming increases the number of people around the world that are affected by these events each year, both for all event types combined and each type individually. Changes in the chance of being affected by extreme events are unevenly distributed in space. Particularly large increases are simulated for tropical and subtropical regions. Key Points: We quantify the pure effect of climate change on the exposure to extreme climate impact events, for both historical and future time periodsGlobal warming increases the global population exposure to river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwavesThe largest increases in exposure are projected for tropical and subtropical regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for "scenario‐neutral" analyses in which alternative policies are evaluated over plausible future scenarios with no assessment of their likelihoods. Instead, these frameworks use sensitivity analysis to discover which uncertain factors have the greatest influence on performance. This knowledge can be used to design monitoring programs and adaptive policies that respond to changes in the critical uncertainties. However, scenario‐neutral analyses make implicit assumptions about the range and independence of the uncertain factors that may not be consistent with the coupled human‐hydrologic processes influencing the system. These assumptions could influence which factors are found to be most important and which policies are most robust, belying their neutrality; assuming uniformity and independence could have decision‐relevant implications. This study illustrates these implications using a multistakeholder planning problem within the Colorado River Basin, where hundreds of rights holders vie for the river's limited water under the law of prior appropriation. Variance‐based sensitivity analyses are performed to assess users' vulnerabilities to changing hydrologic conditions using four experimental designs: (1) scenario‐neutral samples of hydrologic factors, centered on recent historical conditions, (2) scenarios informed by climate projections, (3) scenarios informed by paleohydrologic reconstructions, and (4) scenario‐neutral samples of hydrologic factors spanning all previous experimental designs. Differences in sensitivities and user robustness rankings across the experiments illustrate the challenges of inferring the most consequential drivers of vulnerabilities to design effective monitoring programs and robust management policies. Plain Language Summary: How we should best manage our water resources depends on future water supply and demand, both of which are changing in uncertain ways as a consequence of climate change, population growth, and sectoral change. This makes it challenging to decide between alternative management plans that may be most favorable under different conditions. Given this uncertainty, many planning frameworks advocate for implementing "robust" management plans that perform reasonably well over a wide range of conditions. These plans can then be modified adaptively to cater to particular climate and socioeconomic conditions as our uncertainty about the future is reduced. Unfortunately, we find that the determination of which plan is most robust, and what conditions should trigger adaptation, is an additional challenge. In assessing the vulnerabilities of hundreds of water users in the Upper Colorado River Basin to different possible drought conditions, we find different users to be robust depending on which scenarios are considered. The sensitivities of these users' water shortages to different climate conditions also depend on which scenarios are considered. Since we do not know which scenarios are most plausible, we recommend that climate vulnerability assessments consider multiple sets of scenarios when evaluating alternative water management plans and designing monitoring programs. Key Points: Alternative experimental designs for climate vulnerability assessments lead to different inferences about important factors to monitorThese differences have implications for our ability to detect failure conditions and to rank user robustnessInconsistencies in robustness ranks across experimental designs increase with more conservative performance criteria [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship holds that the atmospheric water vapor content enhances with warming temperatures, suggesting intensifications of precipitable water and also altering runoff generation. Drought conditions are determined by variations in water fluxes such as precipitation and runoff, which tightly connect with temperature scaling characteristics. However, whether and how water fluxes' scaling with temperatures may affect the evolution of droughts under climate change has not yet been systematically investigated. This study develops a cascade modeling chain consisting of the climate model ensemble, bias correction technique, and hydrological models to investigate the precipitation and runoff scaling relationships with warming temperatures under the current (1961–2005) and future periods (2011–2055 and 2056–2100), as well as their implications on future drought changes across 151 catchments in China. The results show that (1) precipitation (runoff) scaling relationships with temperatures are stable during different time periods; (2) return level analysis indicates drought risks are projected to become (1–10 times) more severe across central and southern catchments, where the precipitation (runoff) strengthens with rising temperatures up to a peak point and then decline in a hotter environment. The northeastern and western catchments, where a monotonic increasing scaling type dominated, are accompanied by drought mitigations for two future periods; (3) future changes in hydrological droughts relative to the baseline are (1–5 times) larger than those in meteorological droughts. These results imply that changes in future drought risks are highly dependent on the present precipitation (runoff)‐temperature relationships, suggesting a meaningful implication of scaling types for future drought prediction. Plain Language Summary: Drought hazards are determined by variations in water fluxes such as precipitation and runoff. Global climate warming has altered these terrestrial hydrological processes and subsequently changed drought conditions. Characterizing the responses of precipitation and runoff to warming climates and investigating their implications on future drought changes are important for drought early warning and prediction. Here we show that monthly precipitation and runoff either exhibit a monotonic increasing or the peak‐like structure (in which precipitation and runoff increase with warming temperatures up to a peak point and decline thereafter) with temperatures. The increasing relationship typically suggests future drought mitigation, while the hook structure type, which prevails in central and southern catchments in China, implies increasing drought risks. Our findings facilitate a better understanding of drought changes under climate change and provide a scientific basis for drought adaptation to climate change. Key Points: Monthly precipitation and runoff typically exhibit a monotonic increasing or hook structure with temperature scaling in ChinaThe hook structures typically imply future intensifying drought hazards, whereas the increasing scaling types infer drought mitigationsFuture changes in hydrological droughts relative to the historical baseline are larger than those in meteorological droughts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐range water planning is complicated by factors that are rapidly changing in the 21st century, including climate, population, and water use. Here, we analyze climate factors and drought projections for Texas as an example of a diverse society straddling an aridity gradient to examine how the projections can best serve water stakeholder needs. We find that climate models are robust in projecting drying of summer‐season soil moisture and decreasing reservoir supplies for both the eastern and western portions of Texas during the 21st century. Further, projections indicate drier conditions during the latter half of the 21st century than even the most arid centuries of the last 1,000 years that included megadroughts. To illustrate how accounting for drought nonstationarity may increase water resiliency, we consider generalized case studies involving four key stakeholder groups: agricultural producers, large surface water suppliers, small groundwater management districts, and regional water planning districts. We also examine an example of customized climate information being used as input to long‐range water planning. We find that while stakeholders value the quantitative capability of climate model outputs, more specific climate‐related information better supports resilience planning across multiple stakeholder groups. New suites of tools could provide necessary capacity for both short‐ and long‐term, stakeholder‐specific adaptive planning. Key Points: Water stakeholders should prepare for future droughts that will be unlike past droughtsInformation available from climate projections often does not align with the detailed information needed for water planningBetter awareness of the mismatch between available and needed information will help inform efforts to close this gap [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071–2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the "dry gets drier and wet gets wetter" paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa. Key Points: We examined the impact of changes in precipitation and temperature on drought characteristics over East Africa during 1981–2099Precipitation and temperature will increase over East Africa; however, the temperature impact is dominant leading to extreme droughtsDrought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 37%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought has become a major threat to local sustainable development in dryland Asia, one of the largest grassland ecosystems in the world. However, empirical‐ and science‐based evidence regarding the extent of drought changes and the future trends of these changes in dryland Asia is variable and incomplete. Here, we first investigate the historical variations in drought conditions in dryland Asia, as measured by the drought intensity and arid area, using three widely used drought indices (the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Index, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index). Then, we use Bayesian model averaging to reproduce the future drought conditions under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth system models. The Palmer Drought Severity Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index illustrate that dryland Asia has experienced an overall drying trend and an expansion of arid areas over the past 100 years (1901–2016). Both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase under both the 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios compared with the values from the reference period (1986–2005). The projected drought conditions in the 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios will worsen, especially across Kazakhstan and Northwest China. We found that the drought conditions under the 2.0 °C warming conditions will not be as severe as those under the 1.5 °C warming conditions due to the mitigating effect of the projected precipitation increase under RCP4.5. These results call for short‐term and long‐term mitigation and adaptation measurements for drought events in dryland Asia. Plain Language Summary: To avoid the negative impacts of climate warming, the Paris Agreement aims to pursue efforts to maintain the global warming increase at well below 1.5 and even 2.0 °C until the end of the century. Questions have been raised regarding the climate extremes in dryland Asia. Will drought issues become more severe under the context of global warming? Are the existing drought indices able to quantify and characterize the drought intensity and arid area in this region? Answers to these questions are crucial for the livelihood of millions of individuals, as these people rely on grassland biomass to feed both animals and farmers; however, the answers remain unclear. Here, we found that the projected drought severity and arid area will persistently increase under both the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios. We also found that the drought conditions under the 2.0 °C warming scenario will be mitigated relative to those under the 1.5 °C warming scenario due to the beneficial effect of adequate precipitation under representative concentration pathway 4.5. Kazakhstan and Northwest China might be severely affected by drought. Therefore, understanding future changes in drought conditions in dryland Asia is critical for developing adaptation measures to cope with the challenges of rapid climate change. Key Points: Future global climate change will impose severe drought issues in dryland Asia, including drying trends and expanded arid areasDrought conditions in dryland Asia under the 2.0 °C warming will not be as severe as those under the 1.5 °C warmingFuture drought conditions in Kazakhstan and Northwest China will likely be more severe in dryland Asian countries [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is one of the most widespread and destructive hazards over the Loess Plateau (LP) of China. Due to climate change, extremely high temperature accompanied with drought (expressed as hot drought) may lead to intensive losses of both properties and human deaths in future. A hot drought probabilistic recognition system is developed to investigate how potential future climate changes will impact the simultaneous occurrence of drought and hot extremes (hot days exceeding certain values) on the LP. Two regional climate models, coupled with multiple bias‐correction techniques and multivariate probabilistic inference, are innovative integrated into the hot drought probabilistic recognition system to reveal the concurrence risk of droughts and hot extremes under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The hot‐day index, TX90p, indicating the number of days with daily maximum temperature (Tmax) exceeding the 90th percentile threshold, and the Standardized Precipitation Index are applied to identify the joint risks on the LP using copula‐based methods. The results show that precipitation will increase throughout most of the LP under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of 2036–2095, while Tmax may increase significantly all over the LP (1.8–2.7 °C for RCP4.5 and 2.7–3.6 °C for RCP8.5). The joint return periods of Standardized Precipitation Index and TX90p show that fewer stations will experience severe drought with long‐term hot extremes in two future scenarios. However, some stations may experience hot droughts that are more frequent and extreme, particularly certain stations in the southwest and south‐central regions of the LP with recurrence period less than 10 years. Key Points: A modeling system is developed to investigate future characteristics of simultaneous occurrence of drought and hot extremesPrecipitation projections from PRICIS and RegCM models were jointly corrected by the multidimensional copula modelResults show that some stations in partial area of Loess Plateau may experience hot droughts that are more frequent and extreme in future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea‐level change and coastal impacts; and near‐term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long‐term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground‐based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]