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本研究は, 交通量の変動にもとづいて交通流状態の推定と速度分布モデルの構築についてまとめたものである. 交通流状態を推定するためには, 1分間交通量変動特性のみを用いて非渋滞流と渋滞流を判別する階層モデルを提案した. また, 非渋滞流と渋滞流状態での各交通量レベル毎の速度分布特性と交通量の変動を直接関係付けて実際速度分布モデルを構築することによって, 交通量のみで速度分布が表現できるようになった.

交通輸送需要が示すゆらぎ状態の系は, 定常確率過程の性質を示すものばかりでなく, 非定常確率過程の性質をもつものも少なくない. そこで, 本研究は, 広範に使用されているARIMAモデルの問題点を踏まえて合理的, 効率的に予測するために, 定常, 非定常確率過程領域の両方を含めた全体の予測システムを構築すると共にその中で非定常確率過程型の予測モデルとしてAROPモデルを提案する. また, 事例研究をとおして提案モデルの有効性と適用性を考察した.

道路舗装の補修に際して, 欧米, 最近ではわが国においても舗装面上の動的載荷による動的たわみ量により, オーバーレイ厚等が決定されている. しかし, 解析手法は静的理論がベースになっているといってよい. 本論文は,「地盤上スラブ動的理論」による動的解析手法を提案し, 適用例として欧米で実用化されているロードレイターを取りあげ, ケンタッキー州の解析手法等との比較検討を行ったものである.

A new proposal for project scheduling (FPERT) is introduced, which tries to implement the concept of fuzziness in the estimation of the project duration. A mathematical linear programming model with multiple objectives is formulated, based on the optimization of the whole project duration, with either the earliest or the latest scheduling time of project activities.To guarantee the possibility of execution of the considered schedule under the uncertainty, a concept of control of the value of membership function is also proposed. By increasing or decreasing this membership function, the project scheduling may be controled.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the state of fluctuation for the transportation demand which varies with time and to develop a time series prediction system and model considering properties of the fluctuation. The traditional models in time series analysis of data have problems such as insufficient consideration on the trend variation, complexity with including the seasonal variation and ambiguous process of model fitting.A general prediction system and a new stochastic prediction model in time series analysis, AROP model, is proposed. Prediction system consists of subsystems to separate stochastic stationary or nonstationary process, to select a prediction model and to evaluate the precision of prediction. AROP model is divided into two models, AROP 1 and AROP 2, corresponding to trend variation.

Finding unsatisfactory sections in a road network and investigation of their alternatives for improvement are described in this paper, considering residents' complaints about the safety of their living and the troubles by traffic.Residents' complaints about the safety and the troubles by traffic were obtained by questionnaires. By the use of canonical correlation analysis, these were approximated as a function of road and traffic conditions, such as traffic volume, footpath, width of road, etc. Using this equation, a method is proposed to choose unsatisfactory sections in a road network. This method is illustrated through a case study in Saga city. Considering the residents' complaints about the safety and the troubles by traffic, necessary improvements of unsatisfactory road sections are also investigated.