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Aim: Efficient mitigation of the biodiversity crisis requires targeted conservation actions in locations with high species richness, the presence of endangered species and unique species communities. However, prioritising sites remains challenging because of sparse knowledge on biodiversity, limiting the possibility of communicating efficiently with local decision makers. We examine easy‐to‐replicate, yet robust, methods to identify areas with high conservation values on large spatial scales using data filtering and complementary biodiversity indicators based on species records from a biodiversity information facility. Location: Finland, Europe. Methods: We illustrate the protocol by focusing on Lepidoptera in Finnish municipal districts. We mobilised over 3 million species records on 878 native Lepidoptera (2001–2020) from the Finnish Biodiversity Information Facility. We estimated the richness of overall and endangered species using species accumulation curves, as well as the uniqueness of species communities, using measures of local contribution to beta diversity (LCBD). After testing for multiple thresholds and their effect on indicator accuracy, 97 districts with >5000 records were included in the analyses. Results: Estimated overall species richness was highest on the southern coast and significantly decreased in the North, following a known pattern with Lepidoptera in Finland. Species richness was not the highest in the districts with the greatest number of records and the ranking differed from the raw data, demonstrating the importance of correcting for sampling intensity. The estimated number of endangered species correlated with overall species richness, except in northernmost districts, where the proportion of endangered species was exceptionally high. High LCBD replacement (i.e. unique species communities) was concentrated in the Southwest (hemi‐boreal) and North (northern boreal) of the country. Main Conclusions: We provided an example and interpretations of how scalable biodiversity indicators based on accumulation curves and LCBD analyses, and careful data filtering (thresholds) can be used to identify sites with conservation priorities from multi‐sourced species records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We present a methodology to address multifaceted uncertainties in species distribution models (SDMs), enhancing their robustness and providing vital insights to inform management and conservation decisions. Data uncertainties, including positional inaccuracies in historical data and absences in survey data that could be attributed to anthropogenic disturbances rather than habitat unsuitability, can compromise SDM predictions, risking the efficacy of resultant conservation strategies. Location: While the concepts and methodologies presented hold global applicability, our case study is situated in and around the Negev Desert of southern Israel and the Palestinian West Bank, focusing on the critically endangered Be'er Sheva fringe‐fingered lizard (Acanthodactylus beershebensis) that is endemic to this area. Methods: Utilizing calculated combinations of reliable and uncertain datasets, we created diverse dataset scenarios. Pre‐development distribution and habitat requirements were estimated for each scenario using a blend of statistical and machine‐learning algorithms in R. Additionally, a combined scenario was modelled using hierarchical model ensembles to effectively weight data by reliability. Results: Our innovative approach produces more robust models and reveals the impact of uncertain datasets on model predictions. Incorporating potential anthropogenic absences led to erroneous model conclusions, particularly when historical data exclusion occurred—a practice often implemented in the pursuit of model robustness. Main Conclusions: Uncertainties in SDMs can yield incorrect conclusions, imperilling conservation efforts. Initiated by land managers, our work actively informs conservation practices. The study's global relevance provides an approach for addressing real‐world challenges in estimating species distributions, advancing the application of conservation science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Oceanic sharks play an important role in maintaining the stability and biodiversity of marine ecosystems, and yet they are among the most threatened taxa worldwide. Currently, large spatial‐scale distribution patterns and conservation gaps are poorly known for most species since they are challenging to study. To address the problem, we here use an integrated approach with an illustration with the blue shark (Prionace glauca), a common bycatch oceanic species. Location: Indo‐Western Pacific Ocean (IWPO). Methods: We first collated decades of species occurrences and marine environmental datasets from open‐access sources. We then applied ensembled species distribution models (SDMs) to predict its seasonal distributions and evaluated the model performance using true skill statistic (TSS) and area under the receiver‐operating characteristic curve (AUC). We finally conducted spatial analyses (e.g. bivariate hotspot analyses) to identify conservation gaps/opportunities based on the predicted distribution maps and two additional datasets, namely, marine protected areas (MPAs) and fishing effort. Results: (1) Both seasonal SDMs performed well (mean TSS > 0.8, AUC > 0.95), and the results suggested that blue sharks were widely distributed in the IWPO with some seasonal differences in ecological niches and distributions (mainly in the West Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Ocean); (2) large MPAs and shark sanctuaries covered comparable, small portions (4%–9%) of blue shark habitats, but these locations (in MPAs and sanctuaries) varied between seasons; (3) fishery‐shark conflict hotspots also varied between seasons with some located in or close to large MPAs and sanctuaries. Main conclusions: We provide seasonal (cold vs. warm) distribution maps of blue sharks across the IWPO to advance their conservation and management. We highlight the importance of strengthening management both in and near large MPAs and shark sanctuaries. Our study contributes a feasible integrated approach to reveal seasonal distribution patterns and conservation opportunities for oceanic sharks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To identify priority areas for in situ conservation and collection of germplasm for ex situ backup of crop wild relative (CWR) diversity in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region as part of an action plan for the conservation and use of the region's important CWR diversity. Location: SADC region. Methods: Diversity, gap and climate change analyses at species and ecogeographic diversity levels were undertaken for 113 regional priority CWR taxa. Results: CWR hotspots were identified in Eswatini (former Swaziland), Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Twenty‐one per cent of regionally priority CWR occur exclusively outside existing protected areas (PAs), 50% are not conserved ex situ, and 64% are predicted to be negatively impacted by climate change. A total of 120 existing PAs in 13 countries were identified as containing populations likely to persist in the future for 80% of CWR taxa and about 50% of the ecogeographic diversity of these taxa; remaining diversity can be conserved in an additional 151 complementary sites in 11 countries. Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, South Africa and Tanzania contain important areas for conserving CWR diversity in situ in which no negative climate change impact is predicted. Priority CWR diversity in the provinces of Bas‐Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo) and Cabinda (Angola) is threatened by climate change and should be collected urgently for ex situ conservation. Other areas rich in ecogeographic diversity that is not conserved ex situ are located in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eswatini, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Main conclusions: We identified 120 PAs and 151 complementary sites outside of PAs in 13 SADC countries that could form the basis of the SADC Network for In Situ Conservation of CWR. We also selected priority areas for filling gaps in ex situ collections and for field survey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Estimate the current and future distribution of brown trout and identify priority areas for conservation of the species. Location: Rhône River basin and Mediterranean streams. Methods: We first developed a spatially explicit species distribution model to estimate the current and future distribution of brown trout for three time horizons (2030, 2055 and 2080) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then performed a prioritization analysis to identify priority areas for brown trout conservation, accounting for: (a) spatial dependencies along the riverine system, (b) several sources of uncertainty arising from climate‐related forecasts and (c) different protected area scenarios by comparing hypothetical, optimal protected networks to an actual protected network designed by regional fish experts. Results: Future projections of brown trout densities exhibited a general trend towards a gradual range contraction, with a significant risk of extirpation across mountainous regions of low to mid‐elevation. Overall, the projected current and future distributions were well‐covered by the existing protected network. In addition, up to 70% of the river reaches included in this expert‐based protection network were also priorities in the optimal priority set (e.g. the best set of areas to maximize biodiversity protection). Finally, a large proportion of these reaches were invariably identified regardless of climate change scenarios and uncertainties or spatial dependencies. Main conclusions: Our analytical approach highlighted priority areas for brown trout conservation which were robust to a set of climate and connectivity assumptions. This core priority network could be further refined by taking into account key fine‐scale processes like thermal refugia. Therefore, we advocate for combining computational and expert‐based approaches in conservation planning of riverine ecosystems to achieve a relevant consensus between regional‐scale management and fine‐grain ecological knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Invasive alien species (IAS) can cause profound impacts on ecosystem function and diversity, human health, well‐being and livelihoods. Climate change is an important driver of biological invasions, so it is critical to develop models and climate‐driven scenarios of IAS range shifts to establish preventive measures. In this study, we analyse how projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extreme events could affect the spread of the six most widely distributed invasive vertebrate species in the Iberian Peninsula. Location: Iberian Peninsula. Taxa: Red avadavat (Amandava amandava), common waxbill (Estrilda astrild), monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus), rose‐ringed parakeet (Psittacula krameri), American mink (Neovison vison) and pond slider (Trachemys scripta). Methods: We followed best‐practice standards for species distribution models (SDMs) regarding handling of the response and predictor variables, model building and evaluation using metrics that assess different facets of model performance. We used an ensemble approach with four modelling methods of varying complexity, including both regression‐based and tree‐based machine‐learning algorithms. We analysed five regional models for current (1971–2000) and future climate (2021–2050). We used principal components analysis to assess consensus among model outputs and positively weighed predictions from well‐performing models. Results: Selected models showed high consensus and good predictive capacity on block cross‐validation areas. Generalized Linear Models and Generalized Additive Models scored highest in reliability (calibration), but Bayesian Additive Regression Trees provided the best balance between calibration and discrimination capacity. Forecasts include visible changes in environmental favourability, with losses generally outweighing the gains, but with some areas becoming more favourable for several species. Main conclusions: Increased frequency and/or intensity of climate extreme events associated with ongoing climate change are projected to reduce overall invasion risk for the species examined although increases in favourability should be expected locally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To quantify the impact of the 2019–2020 megafires on Australian plant diversity by assessing burnt area across 26,062 species ranges and the effects of fire history on recovery potential. Further, to exemplify a strategic approach to prioritizing plant species affected by fire for recovery actions and conservation planning at a national scale. Location: Australia. Methods: We combine data on geographic range, fire extent, response traits and fire history to assess the proportion of species ranges burnt in both the 2019–2020 fires and the past. Results: Across Australia, suitable habitat for 69% of all plant species was burnt (17,197 species) by the 2019–2020 fires and herbarium specimens confirm the presence of 9,092 of these species across the fire extent since 1950. Burnt ranges include those of 587 plants listed as threatened under national legislation (44% of Australia's threatened plants). A total of 3,998 of the 17,197 fire‐affected species are known to resprout after fire, but at least 2,928 must complete their entire life cycle—from germinant to reproducing adult—prior to subsequent fires, as they are killed by fire. Data on previous fires show that, for 257 species, the historical intervals between fire events across their range are likely too short to allow regeneration. For a further 411 species, future fires during recovery will increase extinction risk as current populations are dominated by immature individuals. Main conclusion: Many Australian plant species have strategies to persist under certain fire regimes, and will recover given time, suitable conditions and low exposure to threats. However, short fire intervals both before and after the 2019–2020 fire season pose a serious risk to the recovery of at least 595 species. Persistent knowledge gaps about species fire response and post‐fire population persistence threaten the effective long‐term management of Australian vegetation in an increasingly pyric world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Crop wild relatives (CWR) are an essential source of genetic material for the improvement of certain traits in related crop species. Despite their importance, increasing public, scientific and political support, large gaps exist in the amount of genetic material collected and conserved of many CWR. Here, we construct a dataset on the distribution of wild banana species (Musa spp.) and assess their risk and conservation status. We deal with the following questions: (a) What areas are potentially suitable for wild banana species? (b) How much of the wild banana diversity is currently at risk or insufficiently conserved ex and in situ? Location: Native distribution area of wild banana species, ranging from the north‐eastern states of India to north‐eastern Australia. Methods: We assessed the potential environmental range of wild species using a species distribution modelling approach with MaxEnt. Extinction risk was evaluated following IUCN criterion B, and the ex and in situ conservation status was assessed using an indicator for biodiversity and sustainable development targets. Results: We found that 11 out of 59 assessed species can be considered as vulnerable and nine as endangered. Highest species richness was found along the border of south China and northern Vietnam, in the north‐eastern states of India and on the Malayan peninsula. Our distribution modelling approach indicates that the northern Indo‐Burmese region has the highest environmental suitability for most wild banana species and that lowland rain forests in general are highly suitable for bananas. Assessment of in and ex situ conservation status indicates that 56 out of 59 assessed species are currently insufficiently conserved ex situ and that 49 are of high priority for further conservation. Additional in situ conservation is of high priority for six species and of medium priority for 40 species. Main conclusions: To date, little of the banana CWR are sufficiently conserved both in and ex situ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Traditional approaches for including species' distributions in conservation planning have presented them as long‐term averages of variation. Like these approaches, the main waterfowl conservation targeting tool in the United States Prairie Pothole Region (US PPR) is based primarily on long‐term averaged distributions of breeding pairs. While this tool has supported valuable conservation, it does not explicitly consider spatiotemporal changes in spring wetland availability and does not assess wetland availability during the brood rearing period. We sought to develop a modelling approach and targeting tool that incorporated these types of dynamics for breeding waterfowl pairs and broods. This goal also presented an opportunity for us to compare predictions from a traditional targeting tool based on long‐term averages to predictions from spatiotemporal models. Such a comparison facilitated tests of the underlying assumption that this traditional targeting tool could provide an effective surrogate measure for conservation objectives such as brood abundance and climate refugia. Location: US PPR. Methods: We developed spatiotemporal models of waterfowl pair and brood abundance within the US PPR. We compared the distributions predicted by these models and assessed similarity with the averaged pair data that is used to develop the current waterfowl targeting tool. Results: Results demonstrated low similarity and correlation between the averaged pair data and spatiotemporal brood and pair models. The spatiotemporal pair model distributions did not serve as better surrogates for brood abundance than the averaged pair data. Main conclusions: Our study underscored the contributions that the current targeting tool has made to waterfowl conservation but also suggested that conservation plans in the region would benefit from the consideration of inter‐ and intra‐annual dynamics. We suggested that using only the averaged pair data and derived products might result in the omission of 58% ‐ 88% of important pair and brood habitat from conservation plans. [Correction added on 5 February 2021, after first online publication: 'Results' text has been modified and the 'Main conclusions' omission percentages have been corrected.] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To review the conservation status of Headwater catfish Ictalurus lupus (Girard,1859) in the United States, including quantifying environmental correlates with range contraction and hybridization and introgression with Channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus (Rafinesque, 1818) to inform conservation prioritization. Location: Texas and New Mexico, USA. Methods: We used random forest models to construct species distribution models (SDMs) based on historical (1980–1999) and contemporary (2000–2019) data and 13 classes of remotely sensed stream network data. We measured hybridization and introgression with the widely introduced Channel catfish using external morphology, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and a nuclear gene (RAG2). Results: Species distribution models illustrated temporal reduction in suitability for Headwater catfish among the species' namesake headwater streams, including streams with steeper slopes, faster velocities, and higher elevations. Modelling also revealed reduced suitability of larger streams greater distances from groundwater springs, the same streams frequently occupied by non‐native Channel catfish. A general pattern of increased use of streams draining watersheds with altered or developed land uses was apparent. Assessment of introgression and hybridization with non‐native channel catfish at nine locations showed evidence of ongoing or past hybridization at six locations. Persistence of potentially non‐introgressed populations were found at three locations with smaller sample sizes. Main conclusions: Modelling temporal changes in Headwater catfish distribution provided critical insight into the types and locations of streams that should be targeted for habitat preservation or restoration. Conservation and management of Headwater catfish will require priority decisions based on existing levels of introgression and the practicality of preventing further contact with Channel catfish. Maintaining Headwater catfish populations in springs that are also heavily used by humans will be critical for conservation of the species in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: As a step towards providing support for an ecological approach to strengthening marine protected areas (MPAs) and meeting international commitments, this study combines cumulative impact assessment and conservation planning approach to undertake a large‐scale spatial prioritization. Location: Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Brazil, Southwest Atlantic Ocean. Methods: We developed a prioritization approach to protecting different habitat types, threatened species ranges and ecological connectivity, while also mitigating the impacts of multiple threats on biodiversity. When identifying priorities for conservation, we accounted for the co‐occurrence of 24 human threats and the distribution of 161 marine habitats and 143 threatened species, as well as their associated vulnerabilities. Additionally, we compared our conservation priorities with MPAs proposed by local stakeholders. Results: We show that impacts to habitats and species are widespread and identify hot spots of cumulative impacts on inshore and offshore areas. Industrial fisheries, climate change and land‐based activities were the most severe threats to biodiversity. The highest priorities were mostly found towards the coast due to the high cumulative impacts found in nearshore areas. As expected, our systematic approach showed a better performance on selecting priority sites when compared to the MPAs proposed by local stakeholders without a typical conservation planning exercise, increasing the existing coverage of MPAs by only 7.9%. However, we found that proposed MPAs still provide some opportunities to protect areas facing high levels of threats. Main conclusions: The study presents a blueprint of how to embrace a comprehensive ecological approach when identifying strategic priorities for conservation. We advocate protecting these crucial areas from degradation in emerging conservation efforts is key to maintain their biodiversity value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change is pressing extra strain on the already degraded forest ecosystem in Tanzania. However, it is mostly unknown how climate change will affect the distribution of forests in the future. We aimed to model the impacts of climate change on natural forests to help inform national‐level conservation and mitigation strategies. Location: Tanzania. Methods: We conducted maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling to simulate forest habitat suitability using the Tanzanian national forest inventory survey (1,307 occurrences) and environmental data. Changes in forest habitats were simulated under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2055 and 2085. Results: The results indicate that climate change will threaten forest communities, especially fragmented strips of montane forests. Even under optimistic emission scenario, the extent of montane forest is projected to almost halve by 2085, intersecting many biodiversity hotspots across the Eastern Arc Mountains. Similarly, climate change is predicted to threaten microhabitat forests (i.e. thickets), with losses exceeding 70% by 2085 (RCP8.5). Other forest habitats are predicted to decrease (lowland forest and woodland) representing essential ecological networks, whereas suitable habitats for carbon‐rich mangroves are predicted to expand by more than 40% at both scenarios. Conclusions: Climate change will impact forests by accelerating habitat loss, and fragmentation and the remaining land suitable for forests will also be subject to pressures associated with rising demand for food and biofuels. These changes are likely to increase the probability of adverse impacts to the country's indigenous flora and fauna. Our findings, therefore, call for a shift in conservation efforts, focusing on (i) the enhanced management of existing protected areas that can absorb the impacts of future climate change, and (ii) expanding conservation efforts into newly suitable regions through effective land use planning and land reclamation, helping to preserve and enhance forest connectivity between fragmented patches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The management and restoration of ecological processes mediated by biotic interactions is now broadly advocated and may be achieved by targeting restoration towards key agents. Although theoretically examined, a practical approach to incorporating the physiology and energetics of insects into restoration planning is poorly articulated. I aimed to provide a case study using the thermal biology and energetics of beetles to identify the distribution of habitat suitability in a large restoration landscape. Location: South‐west Western Australia. Methods: I modelled the thermal performance of metabolic rates of thirteen Phyllococerus purpurascens, and twenty Colpochila "species 2," measured repeatedly at seven temperatures between five and 40°C using flow‐through respirometry. Thermal constraints were used to inform a species distribution model of each species at extremely high spatiotemporal resolution, projecting the physiological state of each species for every hour at 5″ resolution across a 152‐km2 restoration landscape in south‐western Australia to estimate the habitat suitability for beetles. Results: Both species' metabolic rates increased exponentially to a critical point, followed by rapid decline, but the thermal tolerance thresholds were different for each species. Both had strikingly high‐thermal tolerance relative to their nocturnal habits and local climatic conditions. The models of beetle prevalence estimated both species to be active and able to access the entire project area for all of the austral spring, summer and autumn. Main conclusions: The results reported here suggest ubiquitous habitat suitability for flower beetles in disturbed landscapes. Incorporation of similar mechanistic models for other species at high resolution offers potential insight into habitat suitability for a broad range of ectotherms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Distribution modelling is a useful approach to obtain knowledge about the spatial distribution of biodiversity, required for, for example, red‐list assessments. While distribution modelling methods have been applied mostly to single species, modelling of communities and ecosystems (EDM; ecosystem‐level distribution modelling) produces results that are more directly relevant for management and decision‐making. Although the choice of predictors is a pivotal part of the modelling process, few studies have compared the suitability of different sets of predictors for EDM. In this study, we compare the performance of 50 single environmental variables with that of 11 composite landscape gradients (CLGs) for prediction of ecosystem types. The CLGs represent gradients in landscape element composition derived from multivariate analyses, for example "inner‐outer coast" and "land use intensity." Location: Norway. Methods: We used data from field‐based ecosystem‐type mapping of nine ecosystem types, and environmental variables with a resolution of 100 × 100 m. We built nine models for each ecosystem type with variables from different predictor sets. Logistic regression with forward selection of variables was used for EDM. Models were evaluated with independently collected data. Results: Most ecosystem types could be predicted reliably, although model performance differed among ecosystem types. We identified significant differences in predictive power and model parsimony across models built from different predictor sets. Climatic variables alone performed poorly, indicating that the current climate alone is not sufficient to predict the current distribution of ecosystems. Used alone, the CLGs resulted in parsimonious models with relatively high predictive power. Used together with other variables, they consistently improved the models. Main conclusions: Our study highlights the importance of variable selection in EDM. We argue that the use of composite variables as proxies for complex environmental gradients has the potential to improve predictions from EDMs and thus to inform conservation planning as well as improve the precision and credibility of red lists and global change assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Deforestation is rapidly altering Southeast Asian landscapes, resulting in some of the highest rates of habitat loss worldwide. Among the many species facing declines in this region, clouded leopards rank notably for their ambassadorial potential and capacity to act as powerful levers for broader forest conservation programmes. Thus, identifying core habitat and conservation opportunities are critical for curbing further Neofelis declines and extending umbrella protection for diverse forest biota similarly threatened by widespread habitat loss. Furthermore, a recent comprehensive habitat assessment of Sunda clouded leopards (N. diardi) highlights the lack of such information for the mainland species (N. nebulosa) and facilitates a comparative assessment. Location: Southeast Asia. Methods: Species–habitat relationships are scale‐dependent, yet <5% of all recent habitat modelling papers apply robust approaches to optimize multivariate scale relationships. Using one of the largest camera trap datasets ever collected, we developed scale‐optimized species distribution models for two con‐generic carnivores, and quantitatively compared their habitat niches. Results: We identified core habitat, connectivity corridors, and ranked remaining habitat patches for conservation prioritization. Closed‐canopy forest was the strongest predictor, with ~25% lower Neofelis detections when forest cover declined from 100 to 65%. A strong, positive association with increasing precipitation suggests ongoing climate change as a growing threat along drier edges of the species' range. While deforestation and land use conversion were deleterious for both species, N. nebulosa was uniquely associated with shrublands and grasslands. We identified 800 km2 as a minimum patch size for supporting clouded leopard conservation. Main conclusions: We illustrate the utility of multi‐scale modelling for identifying key habitat requirements, optimal scales of use and critical targets for guiding conservation prioritization. Curbing deforestation and development within remaining core habitat and dispersal corridors, particularly in Myanmar, Laos and Malaysia, is critical for supporting evolutionary potential of clouded leopards and conservation of associated forest biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Transboundary conservation is key to addressing poleward range shifts that will result from climate change. At a species level, transboundary coordination may be hindered by inter‐country differences in protection of species. We explored how commonly mammal ranges in the Americas were transboundary, identified transboundary mammals whose poleward versus equatorial range limits fell in different countries and examined asymmetries in listing status of mammals. Location: The Americas. Methods: We intersected mammal ranges with country boundaries to identify transboundary species. We then determined the conservation status of mammals at the national level by compiling a database of all national‐level listing status documents across the Americas and at the global level through use of the IUCN Red List database. Results: Over 62% (1,114 species) of mammals were transboundary in any cardinal direction, and over 50% (850 species) had poleward and equatorial range limits in different countries. Of those 850, 26% experienced asymmetric listing, with one range limit designated at a higher listing status than the other at the national level. Mismatches between national and global listing also were apparent at equatorial and poleward range edges. These same general patterns held when our analyses were restricted to globally at‐risk mammals. Main Conclusions: Although listing status of a species does not necessarily equate to actual level of protection, these results demonstrate that formal listings of species vary substantially across country boundaries, and in particular at the latitudinal range extremes. Asymmetries in listing could indicate that species are under less threat in one country compared to another or could reflect different levels of concern in the two countries although population status is similar. Regardless, asymmetries in listing could challenge cross‐border connectivity and climate change resilience in the face of species range shifts and indicate the need for greater transboundary coordination in species management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: Species require sufficiently large and connected areas of suitable habitat to support populations that can persist through change. With extensive alteration of unprotected natural habitat, there is increasing risk that protected areas (PAs) will be too small and isolated to support viable populations in the long term. Consequently, this study addresses the urgent need to assess the capacity of PA estates to facilitate species persistence. Location: Australia. Methods: We undertake the first assessment of the capacity of the Australian National Reserve System (NRS) to protect 90 mammal species in the long term, given the size and distribution of individual PAs across the landscape relative to species’ habitat and minimum viable area (MVA) requirements and dispersal capabilities. Results: While all mammal ranges are represented within the NRS, the conservation capacity declined notably when we refined measures of representation within PAs to include species’ habitat and area requirements. The NRS could not support any viable populations for between three and seven species, depending on the MVA threshold used, and could support less than 10 viable populations for up to a third of the species. Planning and managing PAs for persistence emerged as most important for species with large MVA requirements and limited dispersal capabilities. Main conclusions: The key species characteristics we identify can help managers recognize species at risk within the current PA estate and guide the types of strategies that would best reduce this risk. We reveal that current representation‐based assessments of PA progress are likely to overestimate the long‐term success of PA estates, obscuring vulnerabilities for many species. It is important that conservation planners and managers are realistic and explicit regarding the role played by different sizes and distributions of PAs, and careful in assuming that the representation of a species within a PA equates to its long‐term conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The biodiversity value of scattered trees in modified landscapes is often overlooked in planning and conservation decisions. We conducted a multitaxa study to determine how wildlife abundance, species richness and community composition at individual trees are affected by (1) the landscape context in which trees are located; and (2) the size of trees. Location Canberra, south-eastern Australia. Methods Trunk arthropod, bat and bird surveys were undertaken over 3 years (2012-2014) at 72 trees of three sizes (small (20-50 cm DBH), medium (51-80 cm), large (≥80 cm)) located in four landscape contexts (reserves, pasture, urban parklands, urban built-up areas). Results Landscape context affected all taxa surveyed. Trunk arthropod communities differed between trees in urban built-up areas and reserves. Bat activity and richness were significantly reduced at trees in urban built-up areas suggesting that echolocating bats may be disturbed by high levels of urbanization. Bird abundance and richness were highest at trees located in modified landscapes, highlighting the value of scattered trees for birds. Bird communities also differed between non-urban and urban trees. Tree size had a significant effect on birds but did not affect trunk arthropods and bats. Large trees supported higher bird abundance, richness and more unique species compared to medium and small trees. Main conclusions Scattered trees support a diversity of wildlife. However, landscape context and tree size affected wildlife in contrasting ways. Land management strategies are needed to collectively account for responses exhibited by multiple taxa at varying spatial scales. We recommend that the retention and perpetuation of scattered trees in modified landscapes should be prioritized, hereby providing crucial habitat benefits to a multitude of taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Characterizing animal habitat selection is central to ecology and conservation, and understanding selection across multiple spatial scales is a particular priority for research. However, the ability of selection models to capture multi-scale response has been limited by the dual analytical hurdles of cross-scale collinearity and overlapping landscapes. The aim of this study was to overcome these limitations using a novel, spatially hierarchical approach. Location North America's northern Great Plains (U.S.A. and Canada). Methods We developed a novel adaptation of the occupancy modelling framework that integrates animal response conditionally across scales. We then compared outcomes to those from a traditional multi-scale model. We illustrated our approach using the breeding distribution of two North American grassland songbirds of conservation concern, Sprague's Pipit Anthus spragueii and Chestnut-collared Longspur Calcarius ornatus. Results Our model successfully captured bird response to local habitat within a broader landscape context, even when habitat associations occurred in opposite directions across scale. Probabilities of occupancy were more strongly affected by local conditions when landscape context was favourable than when it was unfavourable. The traditional multi-scale approach extended problems of scale into spatial predictions by over-estimating occurrence where conditions were locally favourable but regionally unsuitable. Main conclusions The spatially hierarchical approach provides an integrated model of habitat selection across scales by allowing broader landscape context to shape local response to conditions. For grassland songbirds, our application enabled targeting that could enhance the expected benefits of conservation when compared to the traditional approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Human-mediated species introductions and extirpations have resulted in the homogenization of biotas over time. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in our understanding of homogenization process for megadiverse regions of the world. Here, we investigate the consequences of widespread species invasions and extirpations for the biogeography of China's unique freshwater fish fauna. Location China. Methods By assembling a comprehensive dataset for distribution of Chinese freshwater fishes, we quantify how non-native fish species, from both overseas introductions and domestic translocations, has led to taxonomic homogenization of fish faunas at watershed, basin, ecoregion and country scales. We explore how the observed patterns in homogenization vary geographically, and identify those species most responsible for the faunal changes. Lastly, we simulate how China's fish fauna may continue to homogenize according to different scenarios of anticipated species introductions and extirpations. Results We demonstrate that species introductions and extirpations have homogenized freshwater fish faunas across China. Overall compositional similarity of watersheds increased by 7.0% (from a historical 14.9% to 21.9% in the present day; Sørensen index). Compositional similarity of 96 of 103 (93.2%) watersheds increased, with western basins exhibiting the highest magnitude. Translocated non-native species associated with aquaculture practices contributed the most to faunal homogenization when compared to alien species (7.3% and 0.4%, respectively). Furthermore, faunal homogenization is predicted to intensify an additional 0.5-4.2% with increasing numbers of new non-native species introductions and the extirpation of native species. Main conclusions Species introductions and extirpations have resulted in the significant impoverishment, and thus the loss of antiquity, of China's freshwater fish fauna over the past century. In the light of the growing realization that species composition (not richness) defines the role that biodiversity plays in maintaining ecosystem function, our study highlights the need for conservation strategies in China that consider changing patterns of β diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Biological invasions are major contributors to global change and native biodiversity decline. However, they are overlooked in marine conservation plans. Here, we examine for the first time the extent to which marine conservation planning research has addressed (or ignored) biological invasions. Furthermore, we explore the change of spatial priorities in conservation plans when different approaches are used to incorporate the presence and impacts of invasive species. Location Global analysis with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea region. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review consisting of three steps: (1) article selection using a search engine, (2) abstract screening and (3) review of pertinent articles, which were identified in the second step. The information extracted included the scale and geographical location of each case study as well as the approach followed regarding invasive species. We also applied the software Marxan to produce and compare conservation plans for the Mediterranean Sea that either protect, or avoid areas impacted by invasives, or ignore the issue. One case study focused on the protection of critical habitats, and the other on endemic fish species. Results We found that of 119 papers on marine spatial plans in specific biogeographic regions, only three (2.5%) explicitly took into account invasive species. When comparing the different conservation plans for each case study, we found that the majority of selected sites for protection (ca. 80%) changed in the critical habitat case study, while this proportion was lower but substantial (27%) in the endemic fish species case study. Main conclusions Biological invasions are being widely disregarded when planning for conservation in the marine environment across local to global scales. More explicit consideration of biological invasions can significantly alter spatial conservation priorities. Future conservation plans should explicitly account for biological invasions to optimize the selection of marine protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions ( ACBRs), originally proposed in 2012, are now established as an important tool in Antarctic science, conservation, management and policy. Here, we provide a revised version of the ACBRs, reflecting updates in underlying spatial layers, together with the results of new analyses justifying the inclusion of a 16th bioregion. This updated version now covers all ice-free areas of Antarctica and is publicly available through the Australian Antarctic Data Centre. In light of the interest in the ACBRs across a variety of research fields, we also provide a new set of summary statistics for the updated spatial layer, including landscape metrics, climate data, protected area coverage and an overview of human activity. The updated ACBRs represent a contemporary, practical and evidence-based foundation for understanding, conserving and managing Antarctic biodiversity at a continental scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Identification of priority conservation areas and evaluation of coverage of the current protected areas are urgently needed to halt the biodiversity loss. Identifying regions combining similar environmental traits (climate regions) and species assemblages (biogroups) is needed for conserving the biodiversity patterns and processes. We identify climate regions and biogroups and map species diversity across the Sahara-Sahel, a large geographical area that exhibits wide environmental heterogeneity and multiple species groups with distinct biogeographical affinities, and evaluate the coverage level of current network of protected areas for biodiversity conservation. Location Sahara-Sahel, Africa. Methods We use spatially explicit climate data with the principal component analysis and model-based clustering techniques to identify climate regions. We use distributions of 1147 terrestrial vertebrates (and of 125 Sahara-Sahel endemics) and apply distance clustering methods to identify biogroups for both species groups. We apply reserve selection algorithms targeting 17% of species distribution, climate regions and biogroups to identify priority areas and gap analysis to assess their representation within the current protected areas. Results Seven climate regions were identified, mostly arranged as latitudinal belts. Concentrations of high species richness were found in the Sahel, but the central Sahara gathers most endemic and threatened species. Ten biogroups (five for endemics) were identified. A wide range of biogroups tend to overlap in specific climate regions. Identified priority areas are inadequately represented in protected areas, and six new top conservation areas are needed to achieve conservation targets. Main conclusions Biodiversity distribution in Sahara-Sahel is spatially structured and apparently related to environmental variation. Although the majority of priority conservation areas are located outside the areas of intense human activities, many cross multiple political borders and require internationally coordinated efforts for implementation and management. Optimized biodiversity conservation solutions at regional scale are needed. Our work contradicts the general idea that deserts are uniform areas and provide options for the conservation of endangered species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Human activities are largely responsible for the processes that threaten biodiversity, yet potential changes in human behaviour as a response to climate change are ignored in most species and site-based vulnerability assessments (VAs). Here we assess how incorporation of the potential impact of climate change on humans alters our view of vulnerability when using well-established site and species VA methodologies. Location Southern Africa. Methods Our baseline was two published studies that used accepted VA methodologies aimed at examining the direct impacts of climate changes on species and sites. The first identified potential shifts in the distributions of 164 restricted-range avian species, the second forecasted species turnover in 331 Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs). We used a published spatially explicit assessment of potential climate change impacts on people to evaluate which species and sites overlap with human populations most likely to be impacted. By doing this, we were able to assess how the integration of potential climate impacts on human populations changes our perception of which species and sites are most vulnerable to climate change. Results We found no correlation between species and sites most likely to be impacted directly by climate change and those where the potential response of human populations could drive major indirect impacts. The relative vulnerability of individual species and sites shifted when potential impacts of climate change on human communities were considered, with more than one-fifth of species and one-tenth of sites moving from 'low' to 'high' risk. Main conclusions Standard VA methodologies that fail to consider how people are likely to respond to climate change will result in systematically biased assessments. This may lead to the implementation of inappropriate management actions, and a failure to address those species or sites that may be uniquely, or additionally, imperilled by the impacts of human responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species and ecosystems may be unable to keep pace with rapid climate change projected for the 21st century. We evaluated an underexplored dimension of the mismatch between climate and biota: limitations to forest growth and succession affecting habitat suitability. Our objective was to inform continental-scale conservation for boreal songbirds under disequilibria between climate, vegetation and fauna. Location Boreal and southern arctic ecoregions of North America. Methods We used forest inventory and avian survey data to classify 53 species by seral-stage affinity and applied these to generate alternative projections of changes in species' core habitat distributions based on different vegetation lag-time assumptions. We used our seral stage-modified refugia approach and the Zonation algorithm to identify multispecies boreal conservation priorities over the 21st century. We evaluated the sensitivity of land rankings to seral-stage affinity and species' weights and assessed the conservation value of the existing protected areas network compared to Zonation results. Results End-of-century projected changes in songbird distribution were reduced by up to 169% when vegetation lags were considered. Zonation land rankings based on unconstrained climate projections were concentrated at high latitudes, whereas those based on strict and modified refugia scenarios were concentrated in coastal and high-elevation areas, as well as biome transition zones, which were fairly consistent over time and species weights. The existing protected areas network covering 14% of the study area was estimated to conserve 12-14% of baseline avian biodiversity across time periods and scenarios, compared to 16-25% for top-ranked Zonation areas. Main conclusions For some boreal songbirds, limits to forest growth and succession may result in dramatic reductions in suitable habitat over the next century. Our seral stage-adjusted approach provides conservative and efficient boreal conservation priorities anchored around climatic macrorefugia that are robust to century-long climate change and complement the current protected areas network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We demonstrate a robust approach for predicting and mapping threats and population trends of wildlife species, invaluable for understanding where to target conservation resources. We used the endangered Bornean orangutan ( Pongo pygmaeus) as our case study to facilitate and strengthen conservation efforts by the Indonesian government to stabilize populations by 2017. Location Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. Methods Local knowledge of threats to orangutan populations was gathered through questionnaire interviews in 531 villages (512 in Kalimantan) within known orangutan range. These data were integrated with 39 environmental/socio-economic spatial variables using boosted regression tree modelling to predict threat levels and population trends across Kalimantan and to identify key combinations of threats and trends that can help to direct appropriate conservation actions. Results Nineteen percentage of villages surveyed in Kalimantan reported human-orangutan conflicts. High-predicted conflict likelihood was extensive, strongly associated with road density (very low or high) and temperature seasonality. Recent orangutan killings were reported in 23% of villages. High killing risk was highly associated with greater surrounding orangutan habitat and for villages more than 60 km from oil palm plantations. Killings by respondents were reported in 20% of villages with higher likelihoods associated with greater range in rainfall and temperature, and higher proportion of Christian believers. Orangutan populations were predicted to decline/become locally extinct across the majority of their range in Kalimantan over the next decade, with few regions predicted to support stable populations. Main conclusions Human-orangutan conflicts and killings occur extensively in Kalimantan, with many populations at risk of decline or localized extinctions. Effective conservation actions are therefore urgently needed. Our approach better informs conservation managers in understanding the extent, spatial patterns and drivers of threats to endangered species such as the orangutan. This is essential to better design management strategies that can minimize or avert the species' decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas ( MPAs) and larval supply to the continental shelf. Location The Mediterranean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense MPA network but resource overexploitation outside. Methods Using an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the Mediterranean Sea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among MPAs and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae. Results We show that, over the period 1970-2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. However, connectance within the MPA network would increase by 5% as more northern MPAs would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. We also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive. Main conclusions Climate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of MPA networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity hotspots are conservation priorities. We identify the North American Coastal Plain ( NACP) as a global hotspot based on the classic definition, a region with > 1500 endemic plant species and > 70% habitat loss. This region has been bypassed in prior designations due to misconceptions and myths about its ecology and history. These fallacies include: (1) young age of the NACP, climatic instability over time and submergence during high sea-level stands; (2) climatic and environmental homogeneity; (3) closed forest as the climax vegetation; and (4) fire regimes that are mostly anthropogenic. We show that the NACP is older and more climatically stable than usually assumed, spatially heterogeneous and extremely rich in species and endemics for its range of latitude, especially within pine savannas and other mostly herbaceous and fire-dependent communities. We suspect systematic biases and misconceptions, in addition to missing information, obscure the existence of similarly biologically significant regions world-wide. Potential solutions to this problem include (1) increased field biological surveys and taxonomic determinations, especially within grassy biomes and regions with low soil fertility, which tend to have much overlooked biodiversity; (2) more research on the climatic refugium role of hotspots, given that regions of high endemism often coincide with regions with low velocity of climate change; (3) in low-lying coastal regions, consideration of the heterogeneity in land area generated by historically fluctuating sea levels, which likely enhanced opportunities for evolution of endemic species; and (4) immediate actions to establish new protected areas and implement science-based management to restore evolutionary environmental conditions in newly recognized hotspots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Ecological niche modelling is one of the main tools that allows for the incorporation of climate change effects into conservation planning. For example, ecological niche model predictions can be used to rank species by degree of predicted future habitat loss. While many studies have considered how different modelling decisions contribute to uncertainty in niche model outputs, here we evaluate how metrics used to rank species by conservation risk respond to the choice of global climate models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, suitable versus unsuitable threshold values, and the degree of model complexity. Location California, USA. Methods We built ecological niche models for 153 species of reptiles and amphibians. Reduced complexity models were compared to default complexity models using AICc to select climate variables and tune Maxent' s built-in regularization parameter. We predicted the distribution of climatically suitable habitat under future (2041-2060) climate conditions according to 11 global climate models, four representative concentration pathways, and three threshold values. Two metrics to rank species by predicted future loss of climatically suitable habitat were calculated for each set of modelling decisions. To determine the effects of modelling decisions on rankings, we used mixed models. Results Our results indicate that while individual modelling decisions had relatively small effects on species ranks alone, in combination, they lead to very different conservation assessments. Main conclusions We recommend that a wide range of modelling decisions be explored and that variation in ranks across runs be reported as a first step in identifying the uncertainty in rank metrics used for assessing conservation risk under changing, but uncertain climate predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Detailed knowledge of species distributions, endemism patterns and threats is critical to site prioritization and conservation planning. However, data from biodiversity inventories are still limited, especially for tropical forests, and even well recognized hotspots remain understudied. We provide an example of how updated knowledge on species occurrence from strategically directed biodiversity surveys can change knowledge on perceived biodiversity importance, and facilitate understanding diversity patterns and the delivery of conservation recommendations. Location Eastern Arc Mountains ( EAM), Kenya and Tanzania. Methods We surveyed amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals during 2005-2009, targeting mountain blocks that had been poorly surveyed or unsurveyed by the early Noughties. We combined new and old data to produce a database of species presence by mountain block spanning four decades of research. Species richness is regressed against survey effort, funding, ecological and human disturbance factors to analyse the best predictors of vertebrate richness across mountain blocks. Similarity among species assemblages among blocks is analysed using dissimilarity analysis. Results New surveys raised the number of endemic and regional endemic vertebrates by 24% (from 170 to 211 species), including 27 new species of which 23 are amphibians and reptiles. Vertebrate richness is best explained by forest area, but rainfall is also important, especially for amphibians and reptiles. Forest elevational range is important for mammals and for block-endemic birds. Funding explains 19% of the variation in total species richness, while survey effort generally explains < 10% of variance. Cluster analysis shows that species assemblages are partitioned by geographical proximity among mountain blocks. Main conclusions The biological value of the EAM has been underestimated, and strategic surveys are important even in well-recognized hotspots. The exceptional and global importance of these mountains for endemic vertebrates is highlighted, supporting the development of a network of Nature Reserves and the proposed inclusion within UNESCO's natural World Heritage Sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Advancement in ecological methods predicting species distributions is a crucial precondition for deriving sound management actions. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are a popular tool to predict species distributions, as they are considered able to cope well with sparse, irregularly sampled data and minor location errors. Although a fundamental assumption of MaxEnt is that the entire area of interest has been systematically sampled, in practice, MaxEnt models are usually built from occurrence records that are spatially biased towards better-surveyed areas. Two common, yet not compared, strategies to cope with uneven sampling effort are spatial filtering of occurrence data and background manipulation using environmental data with the same spatial bias as occurrence data. We tested these strategies using simulated data and a recently collated dataset on Malay civet Viverra tangalunga in Borneo. Location Borneo, Southeast Asia. Methods We collated 504 occurrence records of Malay civets from Borneo of which 291 records were from 2001 to 2011 and used them in the MaxEnt analysis (baseline scenario) together with 25 environmental input variables. We simulated datasets for two virtual species (similar to a range-restricted highland and a lowland species) using the same number of records for model building. As occurrence records were biased towards north-eastern Borneo, we investigated the efficacy of spatial filtering versus background manipulation to reduce overprediction or underprediction in specific areas. Results Spatial filtering minimized omission errors (false negatives) and commission errors (false positives). We recommend that when sample size is insufficient to allow spatial filtering, manipulation of the background dataset is preferable to not correcting for sampling bias, although predictions were comparatively weak and commission errors increased. Main Conclusions We conclude that a substantial improvement in the quality of model predictions can be achieved if uneven sampling effort is taken into account, thereby improving the efficacy of species conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Biodiversity and drinking water share a common interest in land conservation. Our objective was to identify where that common interest occurs geographically to inform conservation planning. Location The study focused on 2112 eight-digit hydrologic units (watersheds) occurring in the conterminous United States. Methods Data on aquatic-dependent species occurrence, drinking water intakes, protected land status and land cover change were compiled for each watershed. We compared these four datasets after defining 'hotspots' based on attribute-specific thresholds that included (1) the 90th percentile of at-risk aquatic biodiversity, (2) with and without drinking water intakes, (3) above and below the median percentage of protected land and (4) increase in urban land above and below a 1% threshold between 2001 and 2006. Geographic intersections were used to address a number of questions relevant to conservation planning including the following: What watersheds important to aquatic biodiversity are also important to drinking water? Which watersheds with a shared stake in biodiversity and drinking water protection have inadequate land protection? Which watersheds with potentially inadequate amounts of protected lands are also undergoing relatively rapid urbanization? Results Over 60% of the watersheds that were determined to be aquatic biodiversity hotspots also had drinking water intakes, and approximately 50% of these watersheds had less than the United States median amount of protected land. A total of seven watersheds were found to have shared aquatic biodiversity/drinking water values, relatively low proportions of protected lands and a relatively high rate of urbanization. The majority of these watershed occurred in the south-eastern United States, with secondary occurrences in California. Main conclusions Geographic analysis of multiple ecosystem services can identify areas of shared land conservation interest. Locations where ecosystem commodities and species conservation overlap has the potential to increase stakeholder buy-in and leverage scarce resources to conserve land that, in this case study, protects both biodiversity and drinking water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Global conservation planning is often oriented around vertebrates and plants, yet most organisms are invertebrates. To explore the potential conservation implications of this bias, we assessed how well patterns of diversity for an influential group of invertebrates, the ants, correspond with those of three vertebrate groups (birds, mammals and amphibians). Location Global. Methods We compiled data on the number of genera of ants and the three vertebrate groups for 370 political regions across the world. We then compared their correlations both for overall diversity and between subsets of genera likely to be of conservation concern. We also developed generalized additive models (GAM) to identify regions where vertebrates and ants diverged in their diversity patterns. Results While ant and vertebrate diversity do positively correlate, the correlations are substantially weaker for the ant lineages of the greatest conservation concern. Vertebrates also notably fail to predict ant diversity in specific geographic areas, including Australia and Southeast Asia, parts of Africa and Madagascar, and south-western China. These failures may be genuine differences in diversity patterns, or they may indicate important gaps in our knowledge of ant and vertebrate diversity. Main conclusions We conclude that it is currently unwise to assume that global conservation priorities based on vertebrates will conserve ants as well. We suspect that this also applies to other invertebrates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To analyse spatial trade-offs in conservation of mammals, considering benefits of biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic costs. Location Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We built ecological niche models ( ENMs) for 154 mammals inhabiting the cerrado. We combined model projections to produce consensus maps of species' distributions for three types of models (envelope, statistical and machine-learning models). We used these range summaries as input data in spatial prioritization analyses. We compared six conservation scenarios, considering human population density, land cost, anthropogenic land use, political willingness to act and the distribution of species using trade-off analyses. We complemented the current network of protected areas, aiming to achieve a target of 17% of land protection in the cerrado. Results Species-rich sites coincide with regions with high human population, high land cost, high anthropogenic land use and diverse levels of political willingness to act. We found a significant change in spatial priorities when we included socioeconomic and political dimensions in analyses: top-priority sites moved north, reduced by 68% potential conservation conflicts with human population, reduced by 72% the total monetary cost of actions and reduced by 68% conflict with other anthropogenic land uses. It also increased by 80% the beneficial effect of political willingness to act. Main conclusions Our results reinforce the idea that using only biological criteria for proposing spatial conservation priorities can undermine conservation plans given increases in socioeconomic and political conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Refugia play a key ecological role for the persistence of biodiversity in areas subject to natural or human disturbance. Temporary freshwater ecosystems regularly experience dry periods, which constrain the availability of suitable habitats. Current and future threats (e.g. water extraction and climate change) can exacerbate the negative effects of drying conditions. This could compromise the persistence of a large proportion of global freshwater biodiversity, so the identification and protection of refugia seems an urgent task. Location Northern Australia. Methods We demonstrate a new approach to identify and prioritize the selection of refugia and apply it to the conservation of freshwater fish biodiversity. We identified refugia using estimates of water residency time derived from satellite imagery and used a systematic approach to prioritize areas that provide all the fish species inhabiting the catchment with access to a minimum number of refugia while maximizing the length of stream potentially accessible for recolonization after the dry period. These priority refugia were locked into a broader systematic conservation plan with area-based targets and direct connectivity. We accounted for current threats during the prioritization process to ensure degraded areas were avoided, thus maximizing the ecological role of priority refugia. Results Priority refugia were located in lowland reaches, where the incidence of threats was less prominent in our study area and headwaters in good condition. An additional set of 106 planning units (6500 km2) were required to represent 10% of each species' distribution in the broad conservation plan. A hierarchical management zoning scheme was applied to demonstrate how these key ecological features could be effectively protected from the major threats caused by aquatic invasive species and grazing. Main conclusions This new approach to identifying priority refugia and incorporating them into the conservation planning process in a systematic way would help enhance the resilience of freshwater biodiversity in temporary systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The critically endangered Cross River gorilla is a patchily distributed taxon for which habitat selection has been modelled only at coarse spatial scales, using remotely sensed landscape data and large-scale species distribution maps. These coarse-scale models fail to explain why Cross River gorillas ( CRG) display a highly fragmented distribution within what appears to be a large, continuous area of suitable habitat. This study aimed to refine our understanding of CRG habitat use to inform conservation planning both for the subspecies and for other fragmented species of conservation concern. Location Cross River gorillas occur only in a discontinuous distribution in the southern portion of the Cameroon- Nigeria border region, an area that represents one of Africa's biodiversity hotspots. This study was carried out in the Northern Mone- Mt. Oko region, part of the Mone/ Mbulu forest system located in the Manyu division of the South-west Province of Cameroon. Methods We used resource selection functions to understand habitat use by CRG at multiple scales. Specifically, we employed generalized additive models at the scale of the annual subpopulation range and conditional logistic regression at the scale of individual movements. Results Cross River gorillas habitat selection is highly scale dependent. Localized measures of habitat quality strongly influenced selection at the subpopulation or landscape scale, while human activity and food availability were the best predictors of selection at finer scales. Main conclusions Understanding why CRG do not occur in seemingly suitable habitat is crucial for designating critical habitat both within and between CRG subpopulations. Our results indicate that conservation planning to maintain critical habitat and connectivity among CRG populations will require an integrative, multi-scale planning approach incorporating large-scale landscape characteristics, human use patterns and CRG food availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We explored lineage diversification within desert-dwelling fauna. Our goals were (1) to determine whether phylogenetic lineages and population expansions were consistent with younger Pleistocene climate fluctuation hypotheses or much older events predicted by pre- Pleistocene vicariance hypotheses, (2) to assess concordance in spatial patterns of genetic divergence and diversity among species and (3) to identify regional evolutionary hotspots of divergence and diversity and assess their conservation status. Location Mojave, Colorado, and Sonoran Deserts, USA. Methods We analysed previously published gene sequence data for twelve species. We used Bayesian gene tree methods to estimate lineages and divergence times. Within each lineage, we tested for population expansion and age of expansion using coalescent approaches. We mapped interpopulation genetic divergence and intra-population genetic diversity in a GIS to identify hotspots of highest genetic divergence and diversity and to assess whether protected lands overlapped with evolutionary hotspots. Results In seven of the 12 species, lineage divergence substantially predated the Pleistocene. Historical population expansion was found in eight species, but expansion events postdated the Last Glacial Maximum ( LGM) in only four. For all species assessed, six hotspots of high genetic divergence and diversity were concentrated in the Colorado Desert, along the Colorado River and in the Mojave/ Sonoran ecotone. At least some proportion of the land within each recovered hotspot was categorized as protected, yet four of the six also overlapped with major areas of human development. Main conclusions Most of the species studied here diversified into distinct Mojave and Sonoran lineages prior to the LGM - supporting older diversification hypotheses. Several evolutionary hotspots were recovered but are not strategically paired with areas of protected land. Long-term preservation of species-level biodiversity would entail selecting areas for protection in Mojave and Sonoran Deserts to retain divergent genetic diversity and ensure connectedness across environmental gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Most risk assessments and decisions in conservation are based on surrogate approaches, where a group of species or environmental indicators are selected as proxies for other aspects of biodiversity. In the focal species approach, a suite of species is selected based on life history characteristics, such as dispersal limitation and area requirements. Testing the validity of the focal species concept has proved difficult, due to a lack of theory justifying the underlying framework, explicit objectives and measures of success. We sought to understand the conditions under which the focal species concept has merit for conservation decisions. Location Our model system comprised 10 vertebrate species in 39 patches of native forest embedded in pine plantation in New South Wales, Australia. Methods We selected three focal species based on ecological traits. We used a multiple-species reserve selection method that minimizes the expected loss of species, by estimating the risk of extinction with a metapopulation model. We found optimal reserve solutions for multiple species, including all 10 species, the three focal species, for all possible combinations of three species, and for each species individually. Results Our case study suggests that the focal species approach can work: the reserve system that minimized the expected loss of the focal species also minimized the expected species loss in the larger set of 10 species. How well the solution would perform for other species and given landscape dynamics remains unknown. Main conclusions The focal species approach may have merit as a conservation short cut if placed within a quantitative decision-making framework, where the aspects of biodiversity for which the focal species act as proxies are explicitly defined, and success is determined by whether the use of the proxy results in the same decision. Our methods provide a framework for testing other surrogate approaches used in conservation decision-making and risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To identify the relationships between volunteer bird survey effort and motivations in order to prioritize investment in future surveying activities. Location South-west Western Australia, a global biodiversity hotspot. Methods We developed nine hypotheses for volunteer motivations to predict the probability of a bird survey being undertaken anywhere in the landscape using data from the New Atlas of Australian Birds. We then established three goals for surveying in the study region: (1) equal representation of surveys across the landscape, (2) surveys stratified by habitat type and (3) representation of surveys in protected areas. We developed a function to estimate the benefit of investing in professional surveys, given the probability of a volunteer survey taking place and the survey goal, and calculated the cost of meeting a surveying goal with and without accounting for the probability of cells not being surveyed by volunteers. Results A model combining the location of protected areas, location of previous records of threatened species and habitat diversity was the strongest predictor of the probability of a volunteer bird survey being conducted. Each surveying goal resulted in different areas being prioritized for future surveying, indicating the importance of setting clear objectives before undertaking broad-scale monitoring or surveying activities. If our primary goal is stratified protected area representation in surveys, there are huge cost savings if only protected areas with a 70% predicted probability of not being surveyed by volunteers are selected for professional surveys. Main conclusions Professional sampling in survey gaps is required to reduce bias in volunteer-collected datasets. Using models of volunteer behaviour, we can identify areas unlikely to be surveyed. If these areas are important for the project objective, then we can either provide incentives for volunteers or carry out professional surveying. These analyses are best carried out before data collection commences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding species' historical ranges can provide important information for conservation planning in the face of environmental change. Cromsigt et al. (this issue) comment on our recent European bison ( Bison bonasus) range reconstruction, suggesting that bison were already 8000 years ago a refugee species (i.e. restricted to marginal habitat due to past human pressure) and that species distribution models ( SDM) are generally of limited use for refugee species conservation. While we welcome this discussion, we find no evidence for the claim that human pressure prior to 8000 BP determined where bison occurred. More importantly, as human pressure is generally high and increasing, attempts to restore species across their former range may fail where the factors that relegated species into refugee status are still at play or where their optimal habitat has vanished. Identifying areas where human pressure is low and where refugee species have persisted over the last millennia is crucial, and SDM based on historical data are important for doing so. Refugee species suffer from the shifting baseline syndrome, but careful reality checks are needed and all available data should be considered before determining the baseline that should inform conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim An important consideration when planning to conserve a species under climate change is to understand how the distribution of its food resources may also contract or shift under those same climatic conditions. Here, we use a case study to demonstrate a spatial conservation planning approach to inform decisions about where, under climate change, to protect and restore critical food and habitat resources for highly specialized species. Location Eastern Australia. Methods We developed fitted models for the koala ( Phascolarctos cinereus) and five of its key eucalypt food trees using the maximum entropy algorithm available in Maxent. We then projected these models using a range of IPCC A1FI climate change scenarios and identified areas with a higher probability of occurrence. We calculated where the koala and its food trees may co-occur under future climate change. Results The koala and its food trees experienced significant range contractions as climate change progressed, sometimes to regions outside their current distributions. The inland species Eucalyptus camaldulensis and Eucalyptus coolabah contracted from the more arid interior, which is outside the koala range, but persisted in the eastern regions of the koala's range, while Eucalyptus viminalis, Eucalyptus populnea and Eucalyptus tereticornis contracted eastwards and southwards, with a fragmented distribution. The highest probabilities of overlap between koalas and their food trees were identified in fragmented coastal and southern regions of the koala's current range. Main conclusions The application of a robust species distribution modelling decision support tool identified important changes, under climate change, in the distribution of a specialist species and its key food trees. These distributions did not change in complete synergy and therefore areas of overlap varied, depending on the food tree species modelled. This is of particular importance in a conservation planning context, when considering targeted protection and restoration of species-specific habitat resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To present a synthesis of past biogeographic analyses and a new approach based on spatially explicit biodiversity information for the Antarctic region to identify biologically distinct areas in need of representation in a protected area network. Location Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic. Methods We reviewed and summarized published biogeographic studies of the Antarctic. We then developed a biogeographic classification for terrestrial conservation planning in Antarctica by combining the most comprehensive source of Antarctic biodiversity data available with three spatial frameworks: (1) a 200-km grid, (2) a set of areas based on physical parameters known as the environmental domains of Antarctica and (3) expert-defined bioregions. We used these frameworks, or combinations thereof, together with multivariate techniques to identify biologically distinct areas. Results Early studies of continental Antarctica typically described broad bioregions, with the Antarctic Peninsula usually identified as biologically distinct from continental Antarctica; later studies suggested a more complex biogeography. Increasing complexity also characterizes the sub-Antarctic and marine realms, with differences among studies often attributable to the focal taxa. Using the most comprehensive terrestrial data available and by combining the groups formed by the environmental domains and expert-defined bioregions, we were able to identify 15 biologically distinct, ice-free, Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions ( ACBRs), encompassing the continent and close lying islands. Main conclusions Ice-free terrestrial Antarctica comprises several distinct bioregions that are not fully represented in the current Antarctic Specially Protected Area network. Biosecurity measures between these ACBRs should also be developed to prevent biotic homogenization in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Data shortages mean that conservation priorities can be highly sensitive to historical patterns of exploration. Here, we investigate the potential of regionally focussed species distribution models to elucidate fine-scale patterns of richness, rarity and endemism. Location Eastern Arc Mountains, Tanzania and Kenya. Methods Generalized additive models and land cover data are used to estimate the distributions of 452 forest plant taxa (trees, lianas, shrubs and herbs). Presence records from a newly compiled database are regressed against environmental variables in a stepwise multimodel. Estimates of occurrence in forest patches are collated across target groups and analysed alongside inventory-based estimates of conservation priority. Results Predicted richness is higher than observed richness, with the biggest disparities in regions that have had the least research. North Pare and Nguu in particular are predicted to be more important than the inventory data suggest. Environmental conditions in parts of Nguru could support as many range-restricted and endemic taxa as Uluguru, although realized niches are subject to unknown colonization histories. Concentrations of rare plants are especially high in the Usambaras, a pattern mediated in models by moisture indices, whilst overall richness is better explained by temperature gradients. Tree data dominate the botanical inventory; we find that priorities based on other growth forms might favour the mountains in a different order. Main conclusions Distribution models can provide conservation planning with high-resolution estimates of richness in well-researched areas, and predictive estimates of conservation importance elsewhere. Spatial and taxonomic biases in the data are essential considerations, as is the spatial scale used for models. We caution that predictive estimates are most uncertain for the species of highest conservation concern, and advocate using models and targeted field assessments iteratively to refine our understanding of which areas should be prioritised for conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To identify key research questions and challenges that will, if addressed in a timely manner, significantly advance the field of freshwater fish biogeography and conservation. Location Globe. Methods By drawing on expertise from different regions of the world, we integrate an illustrative conspectus of recent scientific advancements in fish biogeography with a prospectus of needed areas of scientific inquiry to identify information gaps and priority research needs to advance the science. Results We identified the following core challenges: (1) Testing current and forging new theories in biogeography; (2) Advancing a trait-based biogeography of freshwater fishes; (3) Quantifying extinction risk and loss of fish species in a changing environment; (4) Evaluating the magnitude and geography of extinction debt for freshwater fishes; (5) Elucidating the patterns and drivers of freshwater fish invasions; (6) Forecasting the future geography of freshwater fishes; (7) Understanding the interactive effects of multiple stressors in freshwater ecosystems; (8) Quantifying new features of the biodiversity crisis: fish faunal homogenization and the emergence of novel assemblages; (9) Promoting scientific rigour in emerging freshwater fish conservation strategies and (10) Improving conservation planning strategies for freshwater fish species. Main conclusions By reflecting on recent scientific progress in fish conservation biogeography, we have identified a set of core challenges and priorities requiring future research investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation biogeography involves the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses to problems regarding biodiversity conservation. The field was formally defined in 2005, and considerable research has been conducted in the ensuing 5 years. This editorial sets the context for 16 contributions in a special issue of Diversity and Distributions on developments and challenges in conservation biogeography. Papers are grouped into the following main themes: species distribution modelling; data requirements; approaches for assigning conservation priorities; approaches for integrating information from numerous disparate sources; special challenges involving invasive species; and the crucial issue of determining how elements of biodiversity are likely to respond to rapid climate change. One paper provides a synthesis of requirements for a robust conservation biogeography for freshwater ecosystems. Conservation biogeography is well poised to make a significant contribution to the process of providing policy makers with objectively formulated scenarios and options for the effective management of biodiversity. The editorial, and the papers in the special issue, deliberate on many of the exciting developments in play in the field, and the many complex challenges that lie ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Most approaches to conservation prioritization are focused on biodiversity features that are already threatened. While this is necessary in the face of accelerating anthropogenic threats, there have been calls to conserve large intact landscapes, often termed ‘wilderness’, to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity. In this study, we examine the consequences of directing conservation expenditure using a threat-based framework for wilderness conservation. Location The Australian continent. Methods We measured the degree of congruence between the extent of wilderness and the Australian protected area network in 2000 and 2006, which was established using a threat-based systematic planning framework. We also assessed priority areas for future reserve acquisitions identified by the Australian government under the current framework. Results In 2000, 14% of Australia’s wilderness was under formal protection, while the protected area network covered only 8.5% of the continent, suggesting a historical bias towards wilderness protection. However, the expansion of the reserve system from 2000 to 2006 was biased towards non-wilderness areas. Moreover, 90% of the wilderness that was protected over this period comprised areas not primarily designated for biodiversity conservation. We found a significant ( P < 0.05) negative relationship between bioregions considered to be a priority for future reserve prioritization and the amount of wilderness they contain. Main conclusions While there is an urgent need to overcome past biases in reserve network design so as to better protect poorly represented species and habitats, prioritization approaches should not become so reactive as to ignore the role that large, intact landscapes play in conserving biodiversity, especially in a time of human-induced climate change. This can be achieved by using current or future threats rather than past threats to prioritize areas, and by incorporating key ecological processes and costs of acquisition and management within the planning framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Using New Zealand land snails as a case study, we evaluated recent spatial modelling approaches for the analysis of diversity in species-rich invertebrate groups. Applications and prospects for improved conservation assessment were investigated. Location New Zealand. Methods The study used a spatially extensive and taxonomically comprehensive, plot-based dataset on community structure in New Zealand land snails. Generalized regression analysis and spatial prediction (GRASP) was used to model and predict species richness as a function of environmental variables (including aspects of climate, soils and vegetation). Generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) was used to model turnover in species composition in relation to environmental and geographical distances, and to assess community similarity and the representativeness of the reserve network. Results Observed land snail richness in 20 × 20 m plots ranged from 1 to 74 (mean 17.5). The GRASP model explained a modest 27% of the variation in richness. The GDM model explained 57% of the variation in species turnover and indicated approximately equal amounts related to environmental (Cody’s beta diversity) and geographical distance (Cody’s gamma diversity). Temperature and moisture were the most important environmental variables. Results indicate that snail distributions are not only sorted by environment but are also strongly influenced by historical effects consistent with those expected of poorly dispersing taxa that have persisted in refugia during past climatic change. The GDM model enabled spatial classifications of snail communities, highlighting diverse communities in heterogeneous regions, such as the South Island mountains, and also enabled continuous depictions of community similarity and adequacy of New Zealand’s protected natural areas network. Main conclusions The GRASP and GDM analyses allowed us to model and depict spatial patterns of diversity in land snail communities involving 845 species, and produce community classifications and estimates of community similarity. These tools advance conservation assessment in species-rich groups, but require further conceptual and methodological development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The objective of conservation planning is often to prioritize patches based on their estimated contribution to metapopulation or metacommunity viability. The contribution that an individual patch makes will depend on its intrinsic characteristics, such as habitat quality, as well as its location relative to other patches, its connectivity. Here we systematically evaluate five patch value metrics to determine the importance of including an estimate of habitat quality into the metrics. Location We tested the metrics in landscapes designed to represent different degrees of variability in patch quality and different levels of patch aggregation. Methods In each landscape, we simulated population dynamics using a spatially explicit, continuous time metapopulation model linked to within patch logistic growth models. We tested five metrics that are used to estimate the contribution that a patch makes to metapopulation viability: two versions of the probability of connectivity index, two versions of patch centrality (a graph theory metric) and the metapopulation capacity metric. Results All metrics performed best in environments where patch quality was very variable and high quality patches were aggregated. Metrics that incorporated some measure of patch quality did better in all environments, but did particularly well in environments with high variance of patch quality and spatial aggregation of good quality patches. Main conclusions Including an estimate of patch quality significantly increased the ability of a given connectivity metric to rank correctly habitat patches according to their contribution to metapopulation viability. Incorporating patch quality is particularly important in landscapes where habitat quality is highly variable and good quality patches are spatially aggregated. However, caution should be used when applying patch metrics to homogeneous landscapes, even if good estimates of patch quality are available. Our results demonstrate that landscape structure and the degree of variability in patch quality need to be assessed prior to selecting a suitable method for estimating patch value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Indicators for biodiversity are needed to facilitate the identification of complementary reserve networks for biodiversity conservation. One widely adopted approach is to use indicator taxa, i.e. a single taxon such as birds or butterflies, despite the ongoing debate regarding their usefulness as indicators of broader biodiversity. Here we assess several aspects, such as influence of species number, of indicator taxa for three extensive data sets to improve our insight into the effectiveness of indicator taxa. Location Denmark, sub-Saharan Africa and Uganda. Methods First, we investigate to what extent variation in species number between indicator taxa (e.g. 488 mammal spp. vs. 210 snake spp.) is causing the differences in effectiveness between indicator taxa. Second, we investigate whether indicator taxa are capable of outperforming indicator groups composed of random sets of species chosen among all taxa. Finally, we assess the correlation of specific properties such as mean range size of the indicator taxa to their effectiveness. We investigate these aspects of the effectiveness of indicator taxa through the separate analysis of three distinct distributional species data sets: sub-Saharan Africa (4,039 spp.), Denmark (847 spp.) and Uganda (2,822 spp.). Results We overall found that indicator taxa comprising a greater number of species tend to perform better than indicator taxa with fewer species (e.g. 488 mammal spp. outperform 210 snake spp.), although there are some exceptions. Second, we found most indicator taxa to perform worse than indicator groups consisting of a comparable number of species selected among all taxa. Finally, the effectiveness of indicator taxa was seen to correlate poorly with selected distributional properties such as mean range size of the indicator taxa, suggesting that it is difficult to predict which taxa are efficient biodiversity indicators. Main conclusions Overall, these findings might suggest that focus should simply be on increasing the number of species among all taxa as basis for priority setting, rather than striving to obtain the ‘perfect’ indicator taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To define priority sets of ecoregions that should be sufficiently covered in a reserve system to represent all Neotropical carnivores (Mammalia: Carnivora) under three distinct conservation scenarios. Location The Neotropical region. Methods We used broad-scale biogeographical data of species distribution to define priority sets of ecoregions for conservation of carnivores and mapped four species traits (phylogenetic diversity, body size, rarity and extinction risk), which were used as constraints in prioritization analyses, based on the complementarity concept. We proposed three scenarios: a very vulnerable one, one of species persistence and another of lower human impact. We used the simulated annealing algorithm to generate ecoregion-irreplaceability pattern and to find the combinations of ecoregions in each conservation scenario. Results We found that only 8% of Neotropical ecoregions are needed to represent all 64 carnivore species at least once. Rain forest ecoregions harbour a greater amount of carnivore phylogenetic diversity, whereas the tropical Andes hold large-bodied carnivores. Western and southern Neotropical ecoregions have more rare species as well as higher threat levels. In the lower human-impact set, 12 ecoregions were needed to represent all species. These coincide only partially with those attained by other prioritization scenarios. In the very vulnerable and in the species persistence scenario, 14 and 12 ecoregions were represented, respectively, and the congruence between either one and the lower human-impact set was fairly low. Shared ecoregions are located in Mexico, Costa Rica, northern Amazon and western Chile. Main conclusions Our results highlight areas of particular interest for the conservation of Neotropical carnivores. The inclusion of evolutionary and ecological traits in conservation assessments and planning helps to improve reserve networks and therefore to increase the effectiveness of proposed priority sets. We suggest that conservation action in the highlighted areas is likely to yield the best return of investments at the ecoregion scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]