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Aim Recent, rapid population declines in many Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species have focussed attention on changing conditions within Africa. However, processes influencing population change can operate throughout the annual cycle and throughout migratory ranges. Here, we explore the evidence for impacts of breeding and non-breeding conditions on population trends of British breeding birds of varying migratory status and wintering ecology. Location Great Britain (England & Scotland). Methods Within- and between-species variation in population trends is quantified for 46 bird species with differing migration strategies. Results Between 1994 and 2007, rates of population change in Scotland and England differed significantly for 19 resident and 15 long-distance migrant species, but were similar for 12 short-distance migrant species. Of the six long-distance migrant species that winter in the arid zone of Africa, five are increasing in abundance throughout Britain. In contrast, the seven species wintering in the humid zone of Africa are all declining in England, but five of these are increasing in Scotland. Consequently, populations of both arid and humid zone species are increasing significantly faster in Scotland than England, and only the English breeding populations of species wintering in the humid zone are declining. Main conclusions Population declines in long-distance migrants, especially those wintering in the humid zone, but not residents or short-distance migrants suggest an influence of non-breeding season conditions on population trends. However, the consistently less favourable population trends in England than Scotland of long-distance migrant and resident species strongly suggest that variation in the quality of breeding grounds is influencing recent population changes. The declines in humid zone species in England, but not Scotland, may result from poorer breeding conditions in England exacerbating the impacts of non-breeding conditions or the costs associated with a longer migration, while better conditions in Scotland may be buffering these impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Over the past three decades, evidence has been growing that many Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird populations have suffered sustained and severe declines. As causes of these declines exist across both the breeding and non-breeding season, identifying potential drivers of population change is complex. In order to explore the roles of changes in regional and local environmental conditions on population change, we examine spatial and temporal variation in population trajectories of one of Europe’s most abundant Afro-Palaearctic summer migrants, the willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus. Location Britain and Ireland. Methods We use national survey data from Britain and Ireland (BBS: BTO/RSPB/JNCC Breeding Bird Survey and CBS: BWI/NPWS/Heritage Council Countryside Breeding Survey) from 1994 to 2006 to model the spatial and temporal variation in willow warbler population trends. Results Across Britain and Ireland, population trends follow a gradient from sharp declines in the south and east of England to shallow declines and/or slight increases in parts of north and west England, across Scotland and Ireland. Decreasing the spatial scale of analysis reveals variation in both the rate and spatial extent of population change within central England and the majority of Scotland. The rates of population change also vary temporally; declines in the south of England are shallower now than at the start of the time series, whereas populations further north in Britain have undergone periods of increase and decline. Main conclusion These patterns suggest that regional-scale drivers, such as changing climatic conditions, and local-scale processes, such as habitat change, are interacting to produce spatially variable population trends. We discuss the potential mechanisms underlying these interactions and the challenges in addressing such changes at scales relevant to migratory species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]