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Aim: Research on population genetic patterns and potential distribution dynamics can provide insights into the development of pest management strategies. Herein, we integrated population genetic analyses with the climatic niche approach to investigate spatial population genetic variations and potential geographical distribution (PGD) of the herbivorous pest Phytomyza horticola. We also analysed its population response patterns to both late Pleistocene climatic events and future climate change. Location: China. Methods: We analysed the patterns of genetic diversity distribution in 29 populations from 19 regions across China using three mitochondrial (COI, COII and Cytb) genes as markers. We estimated demographic histories using neutrality tests, mismatch distributions and Bayesian skyline plots. Changes in PGD were assessed using an ecological niche model. Results: High genetic diversity was found in most populations, and the northern population exhibited higher haplotype diversity. The population genetic structure included the Tibet lineage and a large lineage comprising the remaining populations. Demographic analyses indicated that rapid population expansion occurred during the cold Last Glacial Maximum. In addition, our projections suggested that P. horticola currently has a vast PGD in China, for which the human influence index was the strongest variable. Large areas of cold northern regions were highly suitable for its survival. Under future global warming, highly suitable habitats will shift towards the higher latitudes. Main conclusions: P. horticola is widely distributed across varied environments, which may be attributed to its high degree of genetic variation. Human activities likely facilitated the current PGD and the frequent gene flow that homogenized differentiation among most populations. In addition, P. horticola exhibits strong adaptability to cold climates and environments from the past to the future. Considering future climatic changes, prevention and control should focus on high‐latitude regions, and vigilance regarding human‐mediated pest dispersals and outbreaks should be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]