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Aim: As climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts in many regions, conservation during drought is becoming a major challenge for ecologists. Droughts are multidimensional climate events whose impacts may be moderated by changes in temperature, water availability or food availability, or some combination of these. Simultaneously, other stressors such as extensive anthropogenic landscape modification may synergize with drought. Useful observational models for guiding conservation decision‐making during drought require multidimensional, dynamic representations to disentangle possible drought impacts, and consequently, they will require large, highly resolved data sets. In this paper, we develop a two‐stage predictive framework for assessing how drought impacts vary with species, habitats and climate pathways. Location: Central Valley, California, USA. Methods: We used a two‐stage counterfactual analysis combining predictive linear mixed models and N‐mixture models to characterize the multidimensional impacts of drought on 66 bird species. We analysed counts from the eBird participatory science data set between 2010 and 2019 and produced species‐ and habitat‐specific estimates of the impact of drought on relative abundance. Results: We found that while fewer than a quarter (16/66) of species experienced abundance declines during drought, nearly half of all species (27/66) changed their habitat associations during drought. Among species that shifted their habitat associations, the use of natural habitats declined during drought while use of developed habitat and perennial agricultural habitat increased. Main Conclusions: Our findings suggest that birds take advantage of agricultural and developed land with artificial irrigation and heat‐buffering microhabitat structure, such as in orchards or parks, to buffer drought impacts. A working lands approach that promotes biodiversity and mitigates stressors across a human‐induced water gradient will be critical for conserving birds during drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Understanding the suite of environmental changes impacting migration and disentangling these from the dependencies between migratory stages is fundamental to understanding the drivers and mechanisms causing spatial shifts to migratory bird distributions. In this review, our objectives are to: (i) provide evidence of spatial change at all migratory stages, (ii) identify the key mechanisms driving change, (iii) discuss how anthropogenic change influences migratory patterns, (iv) highlight interdependencies between migratory stages and (v) offer a framework for understanding migratory pattern changes. Location: Migratory land birds globally. Methods: We defined a literature search to find examples of spatial changes in avian migrations and their underlying mechanisms. From the top 1000 search results, sorted by relevance, we retained 81 papers published between 1991 and 2020. Results: Spatial shifts in migratory bird distributions occur throughout the annual cycle, but patterns vary across taxa and migratory stages. Since avian migrants occupy multiple sites across the annual cycle, environmental change has particularly complex repercussions for their distributions. Multiple environmental changes can affect distributions at each migratory stage due to fitness asymmetries between migratory strategies and individuals responding flexibly to environmental changes within and across generations. Spatial changes at one stage (e.g. breeding) can also trigger further indirect spatial changes at other stages (e.g. stopovers) due to dependencies between stages. Conclusions: To understand the drivers and mechanisms underpinning spatial changes, comprehensive year‐round distributional data are crucial for observing change across multiple migratory stages and disentangling competing drivers. Biologging technology could elucidate the mechanisms causing changes to individual‐level strategies and uncover fitness asymmetries between strategies. Ultimately, gaining a clearer understanding of spatial changes will aid in predicting distributional responses to anthropogenic change in migratory birds. This is paramount for mitigating the effects of anthropogenic change and assessing future population viability within this vulnerable and extensive taxonomic group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Forecasting changes in species distribution under future scenarios is one of the most prolific areas of application for species distribution models (SDMs). However, no consensus yet exists on the reliability of such models for drawing conclusions on species' distribution response to changing climate. In this study, we provide an overview of common modelling practices in the field and assess the reliability of model predictions using a virtual species approach. Location: Global. Methods: We first review papers published between 2015 and 2019. Then, we use a virtual species approach and three commonly applied SDM algorithms (GLM, MaxEnt and random forest) to assess the estimated and actual predictive performance of models parameterized with different modelling settings and violations of modelling assumptions. Results: Most SDM papers relied on single models (65%) and small samples (N < 50, 62%), used presence‐only data (85%), binarized models' output (74%) and used a split‐sample validation (94%). Our simulation reveals that the split‐sample validation tends to be over‐optimistic compared to the real performance, whereas spatial block validation provides a more honest estimate, except when datasets are environmentally biased. The binarization of predicted probabilities of presence reduces models' predictive ability considerably. Sample size is one of the main predictors of the real model accuracy, but has little influence on estimated accuracy. Finally, the inclusion of ecologically irrelevant predictors and the violation of modelling assumptions increases estimated accuracy but decreases real accuracy of model projections, leading to biased estimates of range contraction and expansion. Main conclusions: Our ability to predict future species distribution is low on average, particularly when models' predictions are binarized. A robust validation by spatially independent samples is required, but does not rule out inflation of model accuracy by assumption violation. Our findings call for caution in the application and interpretation of SDM projections under different climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past twelve years the number of papers that explore the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the conservation literature has grown on average by 20% annually. By categorising these papers on their primary research questions, we show that the vast majority of these articles (88.6%) focus only on those impacts that arise directly as a result of climate change, ignoring the potentially significant indirect threats that arise from human adaptation responses. This pattern has remained fairly consistent throughout the review period (2000-2012), with a trend towards more articles considering both direct and indirect impacts towards the end of the period. We also find a bias in the time-frames considered by published articles that project future impacts of climate change on biodiversity, with more than three-quarters (77.9%) of papers only considering impacts after 2031, and almost half (49.1%) only considering impacts after 2051. This focus on long-term, direct impacts creates a mismatch, not only with the life-cycles of species and timescales of many ecological processes, but also with most management and policy timelines and the short-term nature of human decision making processes. The focus on studying the long-term, direct impacts of climate change on biodiversity is likely a function of the lack of availability of climate projections on shorter temporal scales; a perception that short-term impacts will be minor; and, insufficient integration with the social and political sciences. While the direct impact of changes in mean climatic conditions will significantly change the biosphere by the end of the century, near term changes in seasonality and extreme events coupled with human adaptation responses are likely to have substantial impacts much sooner, threatening the survival of species and ecosystems. It is therefore essential that we balance our research efforts to facilitate a better understanding of these more imminent threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Understanding the formation and maintenance of biogeographical breaks is fundamental for developing analyses related to biodiversity and conservation. Biogeographical patterns along China's coast are changing dramatically in the face of climate change and alterations in land‐use. In this paper, we sought to clarify the mechanisms responsible for the formation and maintenance of a biogeographical barrier on China's coast. Location: Coastline of northern China. Methods: We have reviewed literature of research related to biogeographical and phylogeographical patterns of intertidal macrobenthos along the coast of Jiangsu Province and adjacent areas, summarized the distribution patterns and biogeographical breakers. We have also reviewed literature about the processes and drivers on coastal biogeographical breaks, to clarify the mechanisms acting to the northward shift of the biogeographical break. Results: The Yangtze (Changjiang) River Estuary Biogeographical Barrier (YREBB) at 30°–31°N, which serves as a coastal biogeographical boundary for the Cold Temperate Northwest Pacific Province and the Warm Temperate Northwest Pacific Province for marine species, has moved northward to ~33°–34°N due to the changes in habitat continuity, oceanographic circulation and climate factors. Consequently, a new biogeographic barrier for intertidal macrobenthos, the Subei Biogeographical Barrier (SBB) on the central coast of Jiangsu Province, has emerged. Main conclusions: The formation and maintenance of the SBB are closely related to the larval dispersal potential, larval settlement success and post‐settlement population establishment, all of which have been profoundly influenced by anthropogenic environmental changes. The northward shift of the YREBB and the appearance of the SBB provide an excellent model system for investigating the impacts of climate change and land‐use change on coastal biogeographic patterning and for clarifying the mechanisms underlying the formation and maintenance of biogeographical barriers in the face of the unprecedented environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation biogeography involves the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses to problems regarding biodiversity conservation. The field was formally defined in 2005, and considerable research has been conducted in the ensuing 5 years. This editorial sets the context for 16 contributions in a special issue of Diversity and Distributions on developments and challenges in conservation biogeography. Papers are grouped into the following main themes: species distribution modelling; data requirements; approaches for assigning conservation priorities; approaches for integrating information from numerous disparate sources; special challenges involving invasive species; and the crucial issue of determining how elements of biodiversity are likely to respond to rapid climate change. One paper provides a synthesis of requirements for a robust conservation biogeography for freshwater ecosystems. Conservation biogeography is well poised to make a significant contribution to the process of providing policy makers with objectively formulated scenarios and options for the effective management of biodiversity. The editorial, and the papers in the special issue, deliberate on many of the exciting developments in play in the field, and the many complex challenges that lie ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are a type of spatial population simulation. They are arguably well‐suited to guide conservation in human‐altered landscapes, but their appropriateness for a wide range of species and landscape types has often been questioned. Here, we provide an overview of how SPOM research has expanded over the last three decades and discuss the untapped potential for these models to inform current conservation strategies. Location: Worldwide. Methods: We carried out a systematic review of studies that have fitted SPOMs to real species and landscapes. We assessed temporal trends in SPOMs' use in conservation and management studies, their taxonomic and geographic coverage, and the attributes of studied landscapes. We quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated whether the authors' modelling choices reflected the perceived advantages and disadvantages of SPOMs. Results: The proportion of SPOMs used to answer conservation questions has increased over time. Questions of where, when and how to conserve have all been addressed, sometimes considering additional aspects such as cost‐effectiveness and climate change. Taxonomic diversity coverage has increased over time, and SPOMs have been used in landscapes with a higher proportion of suitable habitat. They have, however, been predominantly applied in temperate biomes. Few studies have explored parameter extrapolation in taxonomically and ecologically related species with mixed results. Main Conclusions: Over the past three decades, authors have exploited the simplicity and flexibility of SPOMs to answer a broad range of questions with practical implications. The use of SPOMs in less fragmented landscapes, and for an increasing range of taxa, suggests that the strictest definitions of their applicability can be challenged. Stochastic patch occupancy models have untapped potential for informing conservation under climate change. Given the urgent need to plan for large numbers of species with limited data for fitting, SPOMs could better fulfil their potential to guide conservation if parameters could be extrapolated to data‐deficient landscapes and species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Description of the driving forces for genetic divergence is important for understanding spatial pattern of biodiversity and development of conservation plans. Paleo‐climate, geographical barriers and habitat heterogeneity are considered to be the main influential factors; however, an integrative study is still lacking to reveal their interactions. Location: Eastern North America. Methods: Here, we generated MIG‐seq SNPs of 403 Sanguinaria canadensis samples and seven plastome data. The methods of phylogeography and landscape genomics were applied to infer their genetic divergence, demography, species distribution modelling, ecological differentiation and local adaptation. Results: We identified three distinct genetic lineages corresponding to geographical distributions isolated by the Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi River. Ecological niche modelling and population demographic inference demonstrated that the response of S. canadensis to Pleistocene climate changes was consistent with the pattern of southward contraction during the ice age and northward recolonization during the inter−/postglacial period. Isolation in multiple southern refugia was a key factor resulting in the genetic divergence, whereas secondary contact triggered by repeated range shifts allowed gene flow among different lineages. A greater effect of isolation‐by‐environment than isolation‐by‐distance was founded, which suggested heterogeneous environment was also a promotor of genetic differentiation. Candidate adaptive loci related to transposable elements were identified under the influence of divergent environmental selection. Ecological niche divergence also reflected adaptation to different environments. Main Conclusions: This study revealed that genetic divergence has occurred within S. canadensis populations under the combined effect of paleo‐climate, geographical barriers and habitat heterogeneity, and emphasized the necessity of establishing different conservation units in future biological conservation and management work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The seagrass Zostera japonica is a dramatically declined endemic species in the Northwestern Pacific from the (sub)tropical to temperate areas, however, it is also an introduced species along the Pacific coast of North America from British Columbia to northern California. Understanding the population's genetic patterns can inform the conservation and management of this species. Location: North Pacific. Methods: We used sequences of the nuclear rDNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and chloroplast trnK intron maturase (matK), and 24 microsatellite loci to survey 34 native and nonnative populations (>1000 individuals) of Z. japonica throughout the entire biogeographic range. We analysed the phylogeographic relationship, population genetic structure and genetic diversity of all populations and inferred possible origins and invasion pathways of the nonnative ones. Results: All markers revealed a surprising and significant deep divergence between northern and southern populations of Z. japonica in the native region separated by a well‐established biogeographical boundary. A secondary contact zone was found along the coasts of South Korea and Japan. Nonnative populations were found to originate from the central Pacific coast of Japan with multiple introductions from at least two different source populations, and secondary spread was likely aided by waterfowl. Main Conclusions: The divergence of the two distinct clades was likely due to the combined effects of historical isolation, adaptation to distinct environments and a contemporary physical barrier created by the Yangtze River, and the warm northward Kuroshio Current led to secondary contact after glacial separation. Existing exchanges among the nonnative populations indicate the potential for persistence and further expansion. This study not only helps to understand the underlying evolutionary potential of a widespread seagrass species following global climate change but also provides valuable insights for conservation and restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) have emerged as essential tools in the equipment of many ecologists, useful to explore species distributions in space and time and answering an assortment of questions related to biogeography, climate change biology and conservation biology. Historically, most SDM research concentrated on well‐known organisms, especially vertebrates. In recent years, these tools are becoming increasingly important for predicting the distribution of understudied invertebrate taxa. Here, we reviewed the literature published on main terrestrial arthropod predators (ants, ground beetles and spiders) to explore some of the challenges and opportunities of species distribution modelling in mega‐diverse arthropod groups. Location: Global. Methods: Systematic mapping of the literature and bibliometric analysis. Results: Most SDM studies of animals to date have focused either on broad samples of vertebrates or on arthropod species that are charismatic (e.g. butterflies) or economically important (e.g. vectors of disease, crop pests and pollinators). We show that the use of SDMs to map the geography of terrestrial arthropod predators is a nascent phenomenon, with a near‐exponential growth in the number of studies over the past ten years and still limited collaborative networks among researchers. There is a bias in studies towards charismatic species and geographical areas that hold lower levels of diversity but greater availability of data, such as Europe and North America. Conclusions: Arthropods pose particular modelling challenges that add to the ones already present for vertebrates, but they should also offer opportunities for future SDM research as data and new methods are made available. To overcome data limitations, we illustrate the potential of modern data sources and new modelling approaches. We discuss areas of research where SDMs may be combined with dispersal models and increasingly available phylogenetic and functional data to understand evolutionary changes in ranges and range‐limiting traits over past and contemporary time‐scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The dynamic nature of climate change diminishes the effectiveness of static approaches to nature conservation. Areas that were once suitable for species may no longer be suitable, and areas that are suitable now, may be unsuitable in the future. Despite increasing global awareness of the threats posed by climate change, it remains poorly accounted for in conservation programmes, such as translocation. In this study, we project changes in climate suitability for populations of ectothermic species that have been successfully established through translocation efforts. Location: Biogeographical realms: Australasia, Holarctic, Palearctic and Nearctic. Methods: We use species distribution models (SDMs) to project changes in macroclimatic suitability across 65 translocation recipient sites involving 38 ectothermic species. We consider optimistic (SSP126) and pessimistic (SSP370) scenarios of climate change for five general circulation models spanning three time horizons from 2021–2040 up to 2061–2080. Results: Our models predict that at least 74% of recipient sites are projected to decline in climate suitability, regardless of the SSP scenario or time horizon. While recipient site suitability, scaled from 0 to 1 (low–high), was typically very high (>0.75, 39% of sites) under baseline climate conditions (1960–2010), models project a marked shift towards low suitability climates (<0.25, 40% of sites) by the middle of the century (2041–2060) onwards under the more pessimistic scenario. Relative to species' ranges, recipient sites located closer to the equator are projected to experience the most significant declines in suitability. Main Conclusions: Our results call for greater consideration of spatiotemporal factors during the recipient site selection process, so that translocated populations are more strategically placed for long‐term persistence under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many migratory species are declining due to global environmental change. Yet, their complex annual cycles make unravelling the impacts of potential drivers such as climate and land‐use change on migrations a major challenge. Identifying where, when and how threatening processes impact species' migratory journeys and population dynamics is crucial for identifying effective conservation actions. Here, we describe how a new migration modelling framework – Spatially explicit Adaptive Migration Models (SAMMs) – can simulate the optimal behavioural decisions required to migrate across open land‐ or seascapes varying in character over space and time, without requiring predefined behavioural rules. Models of adaptive behaviour have been used widely in theoretical ecology but have great untapped potential in real‐world contexts. Applying adaptive behaviour models across open environments will allow users to explore how migratory species may adapt their routes and usage of intermediate sites in response to environmental change. We outline how SAMMs can be used to model migratory journeys through aerial, terrestrial and aquatic environments, demonstrating their potential using a case study on the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus) and comparing modelled to observed behaviours. SAMMs offer a tool to identify the key threats faced by migratory species, how they could adapt to future migratory journeys in response to changing environmental conditions and the consequences of not being able to adapt to change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Past climatic oscillations are the main driving force of evolutionary changes in alpine species. Species' response to paleoclimatic oscillations is crucial in forecasting their future response in face of climate warming. The aim of this research is to explore the effect of climatic fluctuations on the evolutionary history, demography, and distribution of high‐mountain bellflowers (Campanula lehmanniana complex), the flagship and taxonomically problematic members of chasmophytic vegetation within an underexplored biodiversity hotspot, the Mountains of Central Asia. Location: Central Asia (Tian Shan, Alai and Zeravshan‐Hissar Mountains). Methods: We used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq‐based SNPs) of 262 individuals (70 for the phylogeny reconstruction, and 247 from 31 localities for population studies). We analysed the data using phylogenetic and molecular clock reconstructions, coalescent simulations, and ecological niche modelling. Results: Tertiary isolation between the Tian‐Shanian and Pamir‐Alaian populations led to the differentiation of the two main lineages (~5–6 Mya) corresponding to C. eugeniae and C. lehmanniana, whereas further Quaternary isolation into subregions led to intraspecific genetic differentiation, which starts almost simultaneously for both species (~2.7–1.5 Mya). The relatively small genetic admixture among populations indicates rare historic events of connectivity. In response to Holocene warming, the analysed species experienced a substantial decline in effective population size. Currently, the distribution of both taxa is highly influenced by precipitation in the coldest and driest quarters. Main Conclusions: Our results highlight a general principle that glacial–interglacial cycles and contemporary island‐like habitats distribution, shape the genomic variation of high‐mountain species. The similar declining demographic trend of examined taxa may suggest the overall response to ongoing climate warming. The results underline also the urgent need for conservation action in alpine regions to preserve their biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The capacity for poleward range expansions beyond the tropics in corals hinges on ecophysiological constraints and resulting responses to climatic variability. We aimed to determine how future warming will affect coral habitat suitability at the poleward range edges of these foundational species in the Northwest Pacific. Location: Northwest Pacific. Methods: We generated models integrating thermal physiological constraints of corals adapted to extreme seasonality in Hong Kong, specifically the minimum annual temperature and the proportion of time annually spent at seasonal extremes. With these models, we projected habitat suitability for five coral species under current and future climatic conditions across the Northwest Pacific. Results: Climate model projections reveal an easing of thermal constraints on the leading‐edge of coral ecophysiological limits with an expansion of thermally suitable habitat poleward by 2°–7° in latitude depending on the coral species and model considered. We also highlight a potential divergence of present and future thermal regimes that may lead to a mismatch in suitability for corals currently inhabiting high latitude reefs. Main Conclusions: Understanding the thermal constraints on coral distributions and defining the potential range of corals under climate change is critical for adaptive management that focuses on coral conservation and ensuring ecosystem function of existing subtropical and temperate ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Research on population genetic patterns and potential distribution dynamics can provide insights into the development of pest management strategies. Herein, we integrated population genetic analyses with the climatic niche approach to investigate spatial population genetic variations and potential geographical distribution (PGD) of the herbivorous pest Phytomyza horticola. We also analysed its population response patterns to both late Pleistocene climatic events and future climate change. Location: China. Methods: We analysed the patterns of genetic diversity distribution in 29 populations from 19 regions across China using three mitochondrial (COI, COII and Cytb) genes as markers. We estimated demographic histories using neutrality tests, mismatch distributions and Bayesian skyline plots. Changes in PGD were assessed using an ecological niche model. Results: High genetic diversity was found in most populations, and the northern population exhibited higher haplotype diversity. The population genetic structure included the Tibet lineage and a large lineage comprising the remaining populations. Demographic analyses indicated that rapid population expansion occurred during the cold Last Glacial Maximum. In addition, our projections suggested that P. horticola currently has a vast PGD in China, for which the human influence index was the strongest variable. Large areas of cold northern regions were highly suitable for its survival. Under future global warming, highly suitable habitats will shift towards the higher latitudes. Main conclusions: P. horticola is widely distributed across varied environments, which may be attributed to its high degree of genetic variation. Human activities likely facilitated the current PGD and the frequent gene flow that homogenized differentiation among most populations. In addition, P. horticola exhibits strong adaptability to cold climates and environments from the past to the future. Considering future climatic changes, prevention and control should focus on high‐latitude regions, and vigilance regarding human‐mediated pest dispersals and outbreaks should be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Spatially explicit protections of coastal habitats determined on the current distribution of species and ecosystems risk becoming obsolete in 100 years if the movement of species ranges outpaces management action. Hence, a critical step of conservation is predicting the efficacy of management actions in future. We aimed to determine how foundational, habitat‐building species will respond to climate change in Fiji. Location: The Republic of Fiji. Methods: We develop species distribution models (SDMs) using MaxEnt, General Additive Models and Boosted Regression Trees and publicly available data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to predict changes in distribution of suitable habitat for mangrove forests, coral habitat, seagrass meadows and critical fisheries invertebrates under several IPCC climate change scenarios in 2070 or 2100. We then overlay predicted distribution models onto existing Fijian protected area network to assess whether today's conservation measures will afford protection to tomorrow's distributions. Results: We found that mangrove suitability is projected to decrease along the Coral Coast and increase northward towards the Yasawa Islands due to precipitation changes. The response of seagrass meadows was predicted to be inconsistent and dependent on the climate scenario. Meanwhile, suitability for coral reefs was not predicted to decline significantly overall. The mangrove crab Scylla serrata, an important resource for fisherwomen in Fiji, is projected to increase in habitat suitability while economically important sea cucumber species will have highly variable responses to climate change. Main conclusions: Species distribution models are a critical tool for conservation managers, as linking spatial distribution data with future climate change scenarios can aid in the creation and resiliency of protected area programmes. New protected area designations should consider the future distribution of species to maximize benefits to those taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Poleward range shifts of species are among the most obvious effects of climate change on biodiversity. As a consequence of these range shifts, species communities are predicted to become increasingly composed of warm‐dwelling species, but this has only been studied for a limited number of taxa, mainly birds, butterflies and plants. As species groups may vary considerably in their adaptation to climate change, it is desirable to expand these studies to other groups, from different ecosystems. Freshwater macroinvertebrates, such as dragonflies (Odonata), have been ranked among the species groups with highest priority. In this paper, we investigate how the occurrence of dragonflies in Europe has changed in recent decades, and if these changes are in parallel with climate change. Location: Europe. Methods: We use data from 10 European geographical regions to calculate occupancy indices and trends for 99 (69%) of the European species. Next, we combine these regional indices to calculate European indices. To determine if changes in regional dragonfly communities in Europe reflect climatic warming, we calculate Species Temperature Indices (STI), Multi‐species Indicators (MSI) and Community Temperature Indices (CTI). Results: 55 of 99 considered species increased in occupancy at European level, 32 species remained stable, and none declined. Trends for 12 species are uncertain. MSI of cold‐dwelling and warm‐dwelling species differ in some of the regions, but increased at a similar rate at European level. CTI increased in all regions, except Cyprus. The European CTI increased slightly. Main conclusions: European dragonflies, in general, have expanded their distribution in response to climate change, even though their CTI lags behind the increase in temperature. Furthermore, dragonflies proved to be a suitable species group for monitoring changes in communities, both at regional and continental level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many tree species distribution models use black‐box machine learning techniques that often neglect interpretative aspects and instead focus mainly on maximizing predictive accuracy. In this study, we outline an interpretative modelling framework to gain better ecological insights while mapping abundance patterns of six North American species. Location: Continental United States and Canada. Methods: We develop an innovative procedure using regression trees by stabilizing variance, and mapping dominant rules which we term 'optimized regression tree bagging for interpretation and mapping' (ORTBIM). We apply this technique to understand ecological features influencing the abundance patterns of three eastern (Pinus strobus, Acer saccharum and Quercus montana), and three western (Picea engelmannii, Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii) tree species in North America. For these species, we assess and map the dominant climate–terrain interactions that partly determine abundance patterns in the eastern and western regions. In the process, we examine the role of varying responses and scales and explore finer‐scale species climate–terrain niches and non‐linear relationships. Results: Our study emphasizes the prominent role of elevation and heat–moisture variables in the west and the greater importance of seasonal precipitation and seasonal temperature in the east. The abundance patterns under future climate (SSP5‐8.5) show climate–terrain habitats shifting northward and westward into Canada and Alaska for the eastern species, and predominantly north‐westward for the western species. Conclusion: Our interpretative modelling framework can be used to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the abundance patterns across the full species range, formulate better predictive models and facilitate improved management practices under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Despite an increasing number of studies highlighting the impacts of climate change on boreal species, the main factors that will drive changes in species assemblages remain ambiguous. We study how species community composition would change following anthropogenic and natural disturbances. We determine the main drivers of assemblage dissimilarity for bird and beetle communities. Location: Côte‐Nord, Québec, Canada. Methods: We quantify two climate‐induced pathways based on direct and indirect effects on species occurrence under different forest harvest management scenarios. The direct climate effects illustrate the impact of climate variables while the indirect effects are reflected through habitat‐based climate change. We develop empirical models to predict the distribution of 127 and 108 species under climate‐habitat and habitat‐only models, respectively, over the next century. We analyse the regional and the latitudinal species assemblage dissimilarity by decomposing it into balanced variation in species occupancy and occurrence and occupancy and occurrence gradient. Results: Both pathways increased dissimilarity in species assemblage. At the regional scale, both effects have an impact on decreasing the number of winning species. Yet, responses are much larger in magnitude under mixed climate effects. Regional assemblage dissimilarity reached 0.77 and 0.69 under mixed effects versus 0.09 and 0.10 under indirect effects for beetles and birds, respectively, between RCP8.5 and baseline climate scenarios when considering forest harvesting. Latitudinally, assemblage dissimilarity increased following the climate conditions pattern. Main conclusions: The two pathways are complementary and alter biodiversity, mainly caused by species turnover. Yet, responses are much larger in magnitude under mixed climate effects. Therefore, inclusion of climatic variables considers aspects other than just those related to forest landscapes, such as life cycles of animal species. Moreover, we expect differences in occupancy between the two studied taxa. This could indicate the potential range of change in boreal species concerning novel environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity inventories are not yet complete, with potentially thousands of species unknown to science. This paper aims to (1) elucidate the historical discovery rate of endemic southern African marine fishes and (2) to estimate the number of potentially undescribed endemic marine fishes in the region using a statistical model and which factors (e.g. size/depth) contribute to unknown diversity. Thirdly, all species described globally for eight families (Blennidae, Clinidae, Gobiidae, Lutjanidae, Rajidae, Sciaenidae, Scyliorhinidae, Sparidae) were analysed to elucidate unknown diversity in these groups. The oceans of southern Africa, including Namibia, South Africa and Mozambique, encompassing sections of the south-eastern Atlantic Ocean and the western Indian Ocean. Literature surveys from a number of sources were carried out to compile lists of species descriptions from 1758 onwards. Species-accumulation curves were plotted for all endemic species, as well as for different components of size and depth. A maximum likelihood model was used to estimate the number of undescribed endemic marine fishes in southern Africa, as well as for all other categories, including global families. Fish discovery rates in southern Africa have varied with time. Estimates suggest that at least 25% of the total endemic fish fauna remain unknown and that size is the greatest predictor of whether a fish has been described. Smaller-sized fishes and those inhabiting shallow areas are most likely to be undersampled. It is likely that most undescribed fishes inhabit the subtropical/tropical waters of the east coast. At the current rate of fish description, it will take at least 50 years to describe the total endemic fish fauna. However, estimates of unknown species are probably higher because of cryptic species within currently recognized taxa. Climate change may also contribute to range expansions of marine species, further complicating the status of endemicity in southern African marine fishes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to explain the altitudinal changes that have occurred during the 20th century to the white stork distribution in the Podhale region of the uplands of the Tatra mountains, southern Poland. We analysed both historical data from the white stork censuses and detailed yearly records from 1974 to 2003 on population size, distribution and breeding success. A white stork nest was first recorded at Podhale in 1931 and numbers increased to seven nests in 1933, all located below 650 m altitude. During the 30-years, 1974–2003, both the maximum and upper-quartile altitudes of nests increased significantly. In 1974 the highest nest was at an altitude of 770 m, and the maximum reached 890 m in 1999. In the same period, the breeding population increased significantly. The minimum and lower-quartile altitudes of nests decreased significantly following initial occupation of suitable lower altitude sites before uphill expansion. We noted the positive association between nest occupancy over the study period and breeding performance. As a result, long-occupied nests contributed most of the young produced in the population and chicks from these nests probably colonized new areas. We believe this is the first well-documented evidence of, and mechanism for, a particular bird species to ascend to higher elevations and that the altitudinal shifts reported for butterflies, plants and whole biomes can be detected in birds as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal is universally considered important for biodiversity conservation. However, the significance of long- as opposed to short-distance dispersal is insufficiently recognized in the conservation context. Long-distance dispersal (LDD) events, although typically rare, are crucial to population spread and to maintenance of genetic connectivity. The main threats to global biodiversity involve excessive LDD of elements alien to ecosystems and insufficient dispersal of native species, for example, because of habitat fragmentation. In this paper, we attempt to bridge the gap in the treatment of LDD by reviewing the conservation issues for which LDD is most important. We then demonstrate how taking LDD into consideration can improve conservation management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Projected climate change has been suspected of affecting the biota of conserved nature areas in different and significant ways. Nevertheless, strategic management within some nature conservation agencies appears relatively unprepared for the possible consequences of climate change. National level planning of reserve design networks has also tended to skirt the issue, possibly owing to insufficient analysis. This paper provides a first assessment of the possible effects of climate change on plant diversity within the protected area network of South Africa. A climate change scenario of increased temperature but no change in precipitation resulted in derived optimum growth days increasing in some reserves through increased temperature extending the growing season. In some other reserves optimum growth days declined through greater evapotranspiration. We concentrated on the larger reserves of the latter group for which conditions that are more limiting were predicted. Plant species were evaluated in terms of their critical limits in growth days and minimum temperature. Over a third of the species analysed for one reserve (Augrabies Falls National Park and Melkbosrand) was indicated to become locally extinct with climate change. Another reserve in the region showed fewer than 1% local extinctions. It is clear that although a certain magnitude of climate change is a prerequisite for these extinctions, the rate and number of extinctions depend strongly on the different environmental tolerances of the specific biotic components of the conserved area. Potential immigration of other species to Augrabies Falls/Melkbosrand required to balance the projected extinctions with climate change would need migration abilities and conditions that are unlikely to be met. A net decrease in plant diversity may thus be expected. The results confirm that with the climate change scenario used, the concept of sustaining species through fixed protected areas may be fundamentally... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change is affecting biodiversity at an accelerating rate. Despite the importance of fungi in ecosystems in general, and in the global carbon and nitrogen cycle in particular, there is little research on the response of fungi to climate change compared with plants and animals. Earlier studies show that climatic factors and tree species are key determinants of macrofungal diversity and distribution at large spatial scales. However, our knowledge of how climate change will affect macrofungal diversity and distribution in the future remains poorly understood. Location: Europe. Methods: Using openly available occurrence data of 1845 macrofungal species from eight European countries (i.e. Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain), we built ensemble species distribution models to predict macrofungal response to climate change alone and combined climate and tree distribution change under the IPCC special report on 2080 emissions scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). Results: Considering climate change alone, we predict that about 77% (74.1%–80.7%) of the modelled species will expand their distribution range, and around 57% (56.1%–58.4%) of the modelled area will have an increase in macrofungal species richness. However, when considering the combined climate and tree species distribution change, only 50% (50%–50.9%) of the species are predicted to expand their distribution range and 49% (47.4%–51.1%) of the modelled area will experience an increase in macrofungal species richness. Main Conclusions: Overall, our models projected that large areas would exhibit increased macrofungal species richness under future climate change. However, tree species distribution might play a restrictive role in the future distributional shifts of macrofungi. In addition, macrofungal responses appear heterogeneous, varying among species and regions. Our findings highlight the importance of including tree species in the projection of climate change impacts on the macrofungal diversity and distribution on a continental scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to make predictions on how species distributions may change as a response to climatic change. To assess the reliability of those predictions, they need to be critically validated with respect to what they are used for. While ecologists are typically interested in how and where distributions will change, we argue that SDMs have seldom been evaluated in terms of their capacity to predict such change. Instead, typical retrospective validation methods estimate model's ability to predict to only one static time in future. Here, we apply two validation methods, one that predicts and evaluates a static pattern, while the other measures change and compare their estimates of predictive performance. Location: Fennoscandia. Methods: We applied a joint SDM to model the distributions of 120 bird species in four model validation settings. We trained models with a dataset from 1975 to 1999 and predicted species' future occurrence and abundance in two ways: for one static time period (2013–2016, 'static validation') and for a change between two time periods (difference between 1996–1999 and 2013–2016, 'change validation'). We then measured predictive performance using correlation between predicted and observed values. We also related predictive performance to species traits. Results: Even though static validation method evaluated predictive performance as good, change method indicated very poor performance. Predictive performance was not strongly related to any trait. Main Conclusions: Static validation method might overestimate predictive performance by not revealing the model's inability to predict change events. If species' distributions remain mostly stable, then even an unfit model can predict the near future well due to temporal autocorrelation. We urge caution when working with forecasts of changes in spatial patterns of species occupancy or abundance, even for SDMs that are based on time series datasets unless they are critically validated for forecasting such change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Comprehensive biodiversity protection necessitates the consideration of multiple indexes of diversity, and how the distribution patterns of priority areas may shift under climate change. Galliformes is a globally endangered avian order vulnerable to climate change that provide an important indicator for wildlife conservation effectiveness. Here, we identified priority areas for conserving Galliformes taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity in China and their spatial dynamics subject to climate change, and examined how well existing protected areas align with current and future priority areas. Location: China. Methods: We applied species distribution modelling and Zonation algorithms to identify conservation priority area dynamics for 47 galliform species across three biodiversity indexes subject to three future climate change scenarios to 2050s and 2070s. We overlaid these identified priority areas onto existing national nature reserves and national parks to assess and project their effectiveness. Results: Current priority areas proved spatially incongruent between indexes, with an optimal area overlap comprising just 10.3% of China's land area, lying largely outside of existing protected areas. Furthermore, over 80% of modelled optimal priority areas currently lacked formal conservation status. Future priority areas will shift substantially under climate change, to an extent dependent on greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Nevertheless, we identified five large regions where optimal Galliformes diversity indexes should remain stable under all scenarios, thus providing potential climatic refugia, if protected from human encroachment. Main Conclusions: The current deficits we identified for Galliformes protection in China resonate with a broader need for hierarchical conservation strategic planning across regions and ecosystems to ensure long‐term biodiversity protection, accommodating for climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Grasslands cover a third of Earth's landmass and provide critical ecosystem services. Anticipating how perennial C3 (cool‐season) and C4 (warm‐season) grasses respond to climate change will be key to predicting future composition and functioning of grasslands. Here, we evaluate environmental drivers of C3 and C4 perennial distributions and assess how C3 and C4 grass distributions shift in response to future climate change. Location: Western United States. Methods: We developed integrated species distribution models to identify climate and soil drivers of relative abundance of C3 and C4 perennial grasses. We then created projections of species abundances under future climate and evaluated when and where projected shifts in relative abundance were robust across climate models. Results: Historically, C3 grasses occupied areas with lower temperature and more variable precipitation regimes, while C4 grasses occupied areas of higher temperature, greater temperature variability and greater warm‐season precipitation. C4 species also occupied narrower soil texture niches. In response to future climate change, C3 grass abundance declined across 74% of areas, while C4 abundance increased across 66% of areas. C3 grasses expanded in mid‐ to higher‐latitude areas with increasing temperature and decreasing seasonality of precipitation. In contrast, C4 grasses increased in higher‐latitude regions, but declined in lower‐latitude, dryer regions. Results were surprisingly robust across climate scenarios, suggesting high confidence in the direction of these future changes. Main Conclusions: Findings imply C3 and C4 perennial grasses will have highly divergent responses to climate change that may result in grassland functional compositional changes. Increasing temperatures and precipitation variability may favour some C4 grasses, but C4 habitat expansion may be constrained by soil conditions in western USA. Results provide actionable insights for anticipating the impacts of climate change on grass‐dominated and co‐dominated ecosystems and improving large‐scale conservation and restoration efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: This study aimed to investigate the distribution patterns of plant diversity in Kenya, how climatic fluctuations and orogeny shaped them, and the formation of its β‐diversity. Location: Kenya, East Africa. Taxon: Angiosperms. Methods: We quantified patterns of turnover and nestedness components of phylogenetic β‐diversity for angiosperm species among neighbouring sites using a well‐resolved phylogenetic tree and extensive distribution records from public databases and other published sources. We applied clustering methods to delineate biota based on pairwise similarities among multiple sites and used a random assembly null model to assess the effects of species abundance distribution on phylogenetic β‐diversity. Results: The phylogenetic turnover of the Kenyan flora, intersecting with the biodiversity hotspots Eastern Afromontane, Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa, and Horn of Africa, shows a non‐monotonic pattern along a latitudinal gradient that is strongly structured into volcanic and coastal areas. The other areas are mainly dominated by phylogenetic nestedness, even in the eastern part of the equatorial region parallel to the volcanic area. Phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic structure analyses explain the mechanism of the observed phylogenetic turnover and nestedness patterns. We identified five phytogeographical regions in Kenya: the Mandera, Turkana, Volcanic, Pan Coastal and West Highland Regions. Conclusions: Variations in turnover gradient and coexistence are highly dependent on the regional biogeographical history resulting from climatic fluctuations and long‐lasting orogeny, which jointly shaped the biodiversity patterns of the Kenyan flora. The nestedness component dominated climatically unstable regions and is presumed to have been caused by heavy local species extinction and recolonization from the Volcanic Region. The high turnover component in climatically stable regions may have preserved old lineages and the prevalence of endemic species within narrow ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The Irano‐Anatolian biodiversity hotspot is among the least‐known biodiversity hotspots on earth. In this study, we aim to map the richness and genetic divergence of lizards in the biodiversity hotspot and its surrounding areas and identify the most important determinants of the richness and genetic divergence patterns. Location: Iran and Turkey (Irano‐Anatolian biodiversity hotspot). Methods: Here, we mapped the distribution of 211 lizard species in Iran and Turkey using existing occurrence data and generated the first genetic divergence pattern map of the lizard species in the two countries to identify areas of high species diversity and genetic divergence in the Irano‐Anatolian biodiversity hotspot. We also identified determinants of lizard richness and genetic divergence patterns. Results: Results showed that the Zagros Mountains, Central Iranian Plateau and the northern Persian Gulf have the highest lizard richness. The Zagros Mountains, Central Iranian Plateau, the northern Persian Gulf and the regions around the Lut Desert and Jazmourian Plain have the highest total genetic divergence in Iran. Alborz and Kopet Dag mountains and south western parts of Turkey have the highest average genetic divergence. The annual temperature was the most important predictor of lizard richness, and temperature change velocity was the most influential determinant of genetic divergence pattern. Much to our surprise, species diversity and most areas with high genetic divergence are located outside of Irano‐Anatolian biodiversity hotspot. Main conclusions: This study showed that lizard richness and genetic divergence patterns are associated with current and past climate. In particular, this study highlights the legacy of past climate changes on lizard genetic divergence distribution patterns. We showed that most of the species‐rich and genetically diverse regions are located outside of the biodiversity hotspot. So conservation efforts that are concentrated inside the biodiversity hotspot may not benefit lizard biodiversity conservation. Thus, future studies and conservation programs on the biodiversity hotspot should also consider its surrounding areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Over the past 50 years, anthropogenic activities have led to the disappearance of approximately one‐third of the world's mangrove forests and their associated ecosystem services. The synergetic combined effect of projected climate change is likely to further impact mangroves in the years to come, whether by range expansions associated with warming at higher latitudes or large‐scale diebacks linked to severe droughts. We provide an estimate of future changes in the extent and aboveground biomass (AGB) of mangrove forests at global scales by considering contrasting Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (decade 2090–2100 under RCP 2.6 in line with the Paris Agreement expectations, and RCP 8.5 of higher emissions). Location: Global. Methods: Boosted regression trees fitted occurrence and AGB of mangroves against high‐resolution biologically meaningful data on air temperature, precipitation, wave energy, slope and distance to river Deltas. Results: On the global scale, models produced for present‐day conditions retrieved high accuracy scores and estimated a total area of 12,780,356 ha and overall biomass of 2.29 Pg, in line with previous estimates. Model projections showed poleward shifts along temperate regions, which translated into comparable gains in total area, regardless of the RCP scenario (area change RCP 2.6: 17.29%; RCP 8.5: 15.77%). However, biomass changes were dependent on the emission scenario considered, remaining stable or even increasing under RCP 2.6, or undergoing severe losses across tropical regions under RCP 8.5 (overall biomass change RCP 2.6: 12.97%; RCP 8.5: −11.51%). Such losses were particularly aggravated in countries located in the Tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and the Western and Eastern Indo‐Pacific regions (regions with losses above ~20% in overall biomass). Conclusions: Our global estimates highlight the potential effect of future climate changes on mangrove forests and how broad compliance with the Paris Agreement may counteract severe trajectories of loss. The projections made, also provided at the country level, serve as new baselines to evaluate changes in mangrove carbon sequestration and ecosystem services, strongly supporting policy‐making and management directives, as well as to guide restoration actions considering potential future changes in niche availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change is an increasingly important driver of biodiversity loss. The ectothermic nature of amphibians may make them particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, adding to declines from other threats. While active season environmental conditions can influence growth and survival, effects of variation in winter conditions on population dynamics are less well‐studied. Given that extreme winter temperatures can influence amphibian survival and fitness, we expected that increased winter severity—as measured by variability in winter temperatures and snow cover—would be associated with decreased occupancy, and that populations that experience more severe winters would have the largest sensitivities and show the greatest declines. Location: Eastern United States. Time period: 2001–2015. Major taxa studied: Anurans. Methods: We used large‐scale citizen science data from the eastern half of the United States, a diverse biogeographic and climatic region, to assess how variation in winter severity influenced occupancy dynamics (i.e. presence or absence of species across sites and years) of 11 spring and summer breeding anuran species. Results: Most species had increased occupancy in years with greater than average snow cover and warmer than average mean winter temperatures. Surprisingly, climatic conditions in winter affected occupancy dynamics of species with varying life history characteristics, including both spring and summer breeding species, those that overwinter under the soil, and those that overwinter in ponds and stream beds. For two wide‐ranging species (Lithobates catesbeianus and Lithobates clamitans), colder winter temperatures reduced occupancy more at northern latitudes, while the association between days of snow cover and latitude was equivocal. Main conclusions As the climate continues to change, expected reductions in snowpack may reduce occupancy of already declining anuran populations, while milder winters may improve overwinter survival for some species. The contradictory impacts of temperature and snow cover illustrate the importance of considering multi‐dimensional impacts of climate change on anuran populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Global warming is threatening species survival worldwide. Cold‐adapted montane ungulates may be among the first species to be affected by global warming. Here, we investigate the behavioural thermoregulation hypothesis that montane ungulates buffer the effects of warming climate through behavioural adjustment. Location: Foping National Nature Reserve (FNNR) on the southern slopes of the Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Methods: We used infrared camera traps over six consecutive years to monitor behavioural responses of montane ungulates to seasonal and diurnal changes in ambient temperature. We evaluated how seasonal altitudinal migration and changes to their daily activity budget may mitigate the effect of warming on montane ungulates. Results: All four montane ungulate species examined here preferred ambient temperatures <22°C in summer. On this basis, we estimate that 27.9% (+2°C) and 46.7% (+3°C) of suitable summer habitats will become unsuitable under climate change. Chinese muntjac and tufted deer displayed behavioural changes to daily activity budgets, which may help them overcome global climate warming to a certain extent. By contrast, golden takin and wild boar did not display similar behavioural changes, and it may be because they are not affected by current shifts in climate due to larger body size and thus lower thermal stress. Main Conclusions: These analyses demonstrate different species responses to warming are likely and are determined by specific tolerances to ambient temperature thresholds. However, it remains to be seen whether species interactions caused by behavioural shifts may affect species ability to respond to climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Anthropogenic environmental modifications such as climate or land‐use change are causing species to move on their own beyond their native ranges. As this phenomenon will increase in the near future, it is crucial to determine whether range‐expanding species, or neonatives, are more or less likely than native and alien species to impact their recipient ecosystems. Here, we compared impact magnitudes of bark beetle species from their native, neonative and alien ranges, simultaneously. Location: Global. Methods: We formulated four general scenarios about the magnitude of environmental impacts in different ranges (native, neonative and alien) based on hypotheses commonly used in invasion biology. We tested these scenarios globally on Dendroctonus bark beetles, asking whether they have the most harmful impacts in their native, neonative or alien ranges. Impacts reported in the literature were assessed with the IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT). Results: We found that bark beetles cause the most harmful impacts in their native ranges, followed by the neonative ranges, while impacts in their alien ranges are the lowest. This indicates that the more dissimilar the environment is from that in the native range, the lower the probability of high‐impact magnitudes. Our results align with several non‐exclusive hypotheses, e.g. pre‐adaptation and habitat filtering, while they do not support others, e.g. enemy release or Darwin's naturalization. The results are also in contrast with previous studies on vertebrates and plants, which found no or mixed differences in impact magnitudes with biogeographic origin. Main conclusions: Our analysis suggests that bark beetles, like other species that are keystone and abundant in their native ranges, have generally lower impacts when introduced to novel environments due to biotic resistance or lack of pre‐adaptation. Research and management implications regarding the impacts of neonative and alien populations are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Decades of research on species distributions has revealed geographic variation in species‐environment relationships for a given species. That is, the way a species uses the local environment varies across geographic space. However, the drivers underlying this variation are contested and still largely unexplored. Niche traits that are conserved should reflect the evolutionary history of a species whereas more flexible ecological traits could vary at finer scales, reflecting local adaptation. Location: North America. Methods: We used mammal observations during a 5‐year period from the iNaturalist biodiversity database and a local ensemble modelling approach to explore spatial variation in American black bear (Ursus americanus) relationships with eight ecological correlates. We tested four biologically driven hypotheses to explain the patterns of local adaptation. We evaluated non‐stationarity in ecological relationships using a Stationarity Index and tested predictive performance using an independent, national‐level animal occurrence data set. Results: We documented considerable spatial non‐stationarity in all eight environmental relationships, with the greatest spatial variation occurring in bear's relationship to climatic factors. Notably, the greatest variation in environmental relationships tended to occur along the current boundaries of the species' range, potentially representing the ecological limits to the species geographic range. We additionally documented that spatial variation in relationships with land cover and anthropogenic factors were best explained by niche conservatism at the subspecies level, whereas climatic relationships were better explained by local adaptation. Main Conclusions: Based on these results, we propose that the current distribution of American black bear is determined by an evolutionary legacy of habitat relationships unique to each subspecies combined with more fine‐scale local adaptation to climatic conditions. This result suggests that black bears should be adaptable to climatic changes over the 21st century and that management of habitat and human‐bear relationships could be considered at the subspecies level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Bird and tree species distributions will shift along with future climatic conditions through direct effects related to species responses to bioclimatic variables. In addition, tree species composition changes should indirectly drive changes in forest bird habitats. Here, we predicted the effects of climate changes on the amount of reachable habitat for forest birds and teased apart the role of the indirect effects. Location: France. Methods: We projected tree and bird species distributions (2020 and 2050) using generalized additive models which accounted for climatic conditions at a large scale (France) and local environmental conditions at regional scale. The projections combined two scenarios of climate changes (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) and two scenarios of forest management (increase in either deciduous or coniferous stands). We modelled the amount of reachable habitat with landscape graphs and the equivalent connectivity index (EC) for five birds associated to the main forest types of the study area. To differentiate the sources of EC change between 2020 and 2050, we compared two future landscape graphs including only the indirect effect, or the direct and indirect effects of climate changes. Results: For birds with low and intermediate thermal maxima, climate‐based distributions were nearly stable over time (absence of direct effects), EC change was only attributed to indirect effects. In contrast, for bird species with high thermal maximum, EC change was mostly driven by direct effects (more favourable climatic conditions) and little by indirect effects. Main conclusions: Using an innovative modelling framework that bind species distribution and connectivity models with climate and land use changes in forest, we showed that EC dynamics could be completely due to climate‐driven changes in tree species composition. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the indirect effects of climate changes, especially in forests where major shifts in tree species composition are expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The presence and use of trails may change plant species' realized climatic niches via modified abiotic and biotic conditions including propagule transport, allowing competition‐pressed alpine species to expand their rear edges towards warmer locations and lowland species to extend their leading edges towards cooler locations. We investigated whether mountain trails indeed act as corridors for colonization and shift species' realized climatic niches, resulting in higher species richness in trailsides. Location: Dovrefjell and Abisko area in the Scandes mountains of Norway and Sweden. Methods: We surveyed plant community composition and disturbances along 16 hiking trails in summer 2018 (Dovrefjell) and 2019 (Abisko). We linked changes in species' realized climatic niches to their climatic optimum and variation in species richness to climate, trail effects and resident plant community characteristics. Results: Plant species richness was on average 24% greater in trailside than in interior vegetation plots. Proximity to trails accounted for 9% and climatic harshness for 55% of variation in species richness explained in our model. Trailsides increased in richness, especially in relatively species‐poor sites and close to introduction points (each accounting for 24% of variation in our model of species gains). Shifts in rear edges and optima of realized climatic niches along trails related to species' undisturbed climatic optimum, with alpine species being more likely to move into warmer locations. While some disturbance‐associated species shifted their leading edges towards colder locations, contrary to expectations this was not the case for lowland species. Overall, shifts in climatic niches resulted in more species' niches overlapping in trailsides than in the interior vegetation. Main conclusion: Trails can locally increase species richness by creating opportunities for colonizing species and weaker competitors. Because of prevailing disturbance, they may even provide opportunities for persistence and downward expansion of alpine species, aiding conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Amphibians, with over 40% of assessed species listed as threatened, are disproportionately at risk in the global extinction crisis. Among the many factors implicated in the ongoing loss of amphibian biodiversity are climate change and the disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). These threats are of particular concern in Australia, where Bd has been implicated in the declines of at least 43 frog species, and climate change is emerging as an additional threat. We explore how climate change is likely to affect the distributions of Australian frog species and Bd to the year 2100, and how the spatial and climatic niche overlap between chytridiomycosis‐declined frogs and Bd could shift. Location: Australia. Methods: We used species distribution modelling to infer the current and future distribution of 141 Australian frog species and Bd, under two emissions scenarios. We used various metrics of niche similarity to quantify predicted alterations to spatial interactions between Bd and frog species. Results: Climate change is likely to have a variable impact on frog distributions in Australia, with some 23 and 47 species, primarily in southern Australia, predicted to lose at least 30% of their current distributions under low and high emissions scenarios, respectively. In contrast, 69 and 68 species, respectively, have potential to increase their distributions, primarily in northern Australia. While the distribution of Bd is predicted to decrease, the proportional spatial and niche overlap between Bd and susceptible frog species is predicted to remain little changed, and in some cases, to increase. Main conclusions: Although effects will be variable across the continent, climate change is likely to be a threatening factor to many Australian frog species. Additionally, chytridiomycosis is likely to remain a significant threat to many frog species, as any reductions to the pathogen's distribution largely coincide with geographic range contractions of chytridiomycosis‐susceptible species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Natural disaster risk reduction (DRR) is becoming a more important function of protected area (PAs) for current and future global warming. However, biodiversity conservation and DRR have been handled separately and their interrelationship has not been explicitly addressed. This is mainly because, due of prevailing strategies and criteria for PA placement, a large proportion of PAs are currently located far from human‐occupied areas, and habitats in human‐occupied areas have been largely ignored as potential sites for conservation despite their high biodiversity. If intensely developed lowland areas with high flooding risk overlap with important sites for biodiversity conservation, it would be reasonable to try to harmonize biodiversity conservation and human development in human‐inhabited lowland areas. Here, we examined whether extant PAs can conserve macroinvertebrate and freshwater fish biodiversity and whether human‐inhabited lowland flood risk management sites might be suitable to designate as freshwater protected areas (FPAs). Location: Across Japan. Methods: We examined whether extant PAs can conserve macroinvertebrate and freshwater fish biodiversity and analysed the relationship between candidate sites for new FPAs and flood disaster risk and land use intensity at a national scale across Japan based on distribution data for 131 freshwater fish species and 1395 macroinvertebrate species. Results: We found that extant PAs overlapped with approximately 30% of conservation‐priority grid cells (1 km2) for both taxa. Particularly for red‐listed species, only one species of freshwater fish and three species of macroinvertebrate achieved the representation target within extant PAs. Moreover, more than 40% of candidate conservation‐priority grid cells were located in flood risk and human‐occupied areas for both taxa. Main conclusions: Floodplain conservation provides suitable habitat for many freshwater organisms and helps control floodwaters, so establishing new FPAs in areas with high flood risk could be a win‐win strategy for conserving freshwater biodiversity and enhancing ecosystem‐based DRR (eco‐DRR). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The Appalachian forests ecoregion in eastern North America supports a diverse and highly endemic temperate biota, which is potentially threatened by rapid climate change. We investigated possible outlooks for biodiversity in this biologically important ecoregion under future climate change. Location: Appalachian forests ecoregion, USA. Methods: We estimated distributional shifts for 258 forest‐dependent vertebrates of conservation concern in four major taxonomic groups (amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles) under short‐ (2040) and long‐term (2080s) climate change using ecological niche modelling. We examined which groups are likely most vulnerable to climate change and identified places predicted to experience the greatest changes in their species assemblages and those predicted to support high species richness under various future scenarios. To assess species' vulnerability, we compared and regressed future projected range against present range estimates for each species. To evaluate which places could see greatest changes, we mapped species richness and turnover in each taxonomic group. Results: A total of 30%–33% and 31%–38% of species were predicted to lose > 50% of area that is currently climatically suitable under short‐ and long‐term climate change, respectively. We expect climate change to impact amphibians and mammals more than birds and reptiles: a much larger fraction of amphibian and mammal (22%–48% in 2040; 29%–56% in 2080s) species were predicted to lose more than half of their present climatically suitable habitat area compared with birds and reptiles (1%–12% in 2040; 6%–12% in 2080s). While species were predicted to move northward and upslope assuming full dispersal, the Blue Ridge, Cumberland Plateau and southern Central Appalachians subregions are poised to remain as richness hotspots under the broad range of scenarios explored in this study. Main conclusions: Our results highlighted species groups and locations that policymakers and conservation practitioners should emphasize in planning vertebrate conservation efforts in the Appalachians under future climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Predictions of future species distributions rest on the assumption that climatic conditions in the current range reflect fundamental niche requirements. So far, it remains unclear to what extent this is true. We tested if three important factors determining fundamental niche—ecophysiology, morphology and evolutionary history—can predict the realized niche, using thermal specialist ants. They are suitable model organisms because their body temperature, metabolism and fitness are closely tied to the habitat temperatures. Location: Iberian Peninsula and Maghreb. Time period: 2013–2015. Major taxa studied: Ants (Hymenoptera:Formicidae). Methods: We measured heat tolerance, chill coma recovery, body size and phylogenetic relationships in 19 desert specialist ants in the genus Cataglyphis to test if these important determinants of fundamental niches are good predictors of species realized niches. We modelled species climatic niches using 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim for recorded occurrence of each species. Results: None of the determinants of the species' fundamental niche were linked to their realized climatic niche, modelled using species distribution models. However, both heat tolerance and chill coma recovery were highly correlated with body size and all three thermoregulatory traits were phylogenetically constrained, suggesting they reflect fundamental requirements of each species. Main conclusions: Our results challenge the basic assumption of climatic niche modelling, that the realized niche can be used as a proxy for determining fundamental niche requirements. These findings are particularly concerning for studies that use the species' current realized niche to predict their responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: A fundamental challenge to protected area‐based conservation is that protected areas are typically established under assumptions of environmental stationarity. With a rapidly changing climate, this assumption of stationarity is violated, and climate change could push some species beyond the bounds of currently protected areas. Here, we evaluate the efficacy of protected areas in conserving threatened plant biodiversity under future climate projections. Location: South Africa. Methods: We use ensemble species distribution modelling to map the projected distribution of South Africa's ~1200 threatened endemic plant species under present‐day and projected climate scenarios for 2050. We quantify the performance of the existing protected area network by examining changes in the relative proportion of species' projected geographic extents within protected areas. We then examine whether current IUCN Red List status is a good predictor of climate 'winners' and 'losers.' Results: We find that 56%–66% of species may have a greater proportion of their projected range extent falling within protected areas in 2050 under climate scenarios of mitigated and upsurge greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concertation Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). However, this increase in the proportion of range protected is frequently associated with range contraction outside of protected areas. We also show that current threat intensity is not a good indicator of which species will lose versus gain increased protection. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that the existing reserve network is surprisingly robust to projected range shifts; however, we also identify regions where species protection needs to be improved. In addition, we suggest that there is an urgent need to better incorporate future climate threats into the assessment of species extinction risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Biodiversity conservation relies in part on enduring habitat in protected areas. In fire‐prone ecosystems, shifts in species' ranges will result both from changes in climate and fire‐catalysed vegetation change, which could lead to niche contraction and undermine protected‐area efficacy. We explored these dynamics for three forest species with varied niches representative of other taxa and different hypothesized responses to fire‐regime change (black‐backed woodpecker, Picoides arcticus; North American marten, Martes spp.; and red squirrel, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). We asked: How do the extent and spatial pattern of these species' distributions change during the 21st century based on the independent and joint effects of climate and vegetation? Location: Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Wyoming, USA). Methods: For each species, we developed separate distribution models based on climate and forest attributes, projected under four climate‐fire scenarios (a 2 × 2 design with moderate and high temperature and precipitation change). A spatially explicit forest landscape model calibrated for Greater Yellowstone was used to project fire and forest dynamics through 2100, and climate suitability was estimated with MaxEnt. Results: Suitable habitat for all three species based on climate or vegetation alone frequently did not overlap on the landscape, and habitat patches became simpler in shape and farther apart. Climatically suitable habitat for the black‐backed woodpecker increased in all scenarios, and suitable forest structure expanded by a factor of 30 in dry scenarios with more fire. Climatically suitable habitat for martens declined with warming and drying; the area of suitable vegetation fell >80% with fire‐driven losses of mature forest. Red squirrel habitat was maintained in all scenarios, but was sensitive to aridity, and patches were redistributed and compacted. Main conclusions: Projections based on climate alone may misrepresent future species distributions, especially where disturbances accelerate vegetation change. Our results identify important consequences of fire‐regime change for wildlife in forests dominated by obligate‐seeder or fire‐sensitive conifers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many species are adapted to a particular fire regime and major deviations from that regime may lead to localized extinction. Here, we quantify immaturity risks to an obligate‐seeder forest tree using an objectively designed climate model ensemble and a probabilistic fire regime simulator to predict future fire regimes. Location: Alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) distribution, Victoria, south‐eastern Australia. Methods: We used a fire regime model (FROST) with six climate projections from a climate model ensemble across 3.7 million hectares of native forest and non‐native vegetation to examine immaturity risks to obligate‐seeder forests dominated by alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), which has a primary juvenile period of approximately 20 years. Our models incorporated current and future projected climate including fuel feedbacks to simulate fire regimes over 100 years. We then used Random Forest modelling to evaluate which spatial characteristics of the landscape were associated with high immaturity risks to alpine ash forest patches. Results: Significant shifts to the fire regime were predicted under all six future climate projections. Increases in both wildfire extent (total area burnt, area burnt at high intensity) and frequency were predicted with an average increase of up to 110 hectares burnt annually by short‐interval fires (i.e., within the expected minimum time to reproductive maturity). The immaturity risk posed by short‐interval fires to alpine ash forest patches was well explained by Random Forest models and varied with both location and environmental variables. Main conclusions: Alpine ash forests are predicted to be burned at greater intensities and shorter intervals under future fire regimes. About 67% of the current alpine ash distribution was predicted to be at some level of immaturity risk over the 100‐year modelling period, with the greatest risks to those patches located on the periphery of the current distribution, closer to roads or surrounded by a drier landscape at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: As climate change intensifies and wildfire frequency and scale increase, it is critical we develop a robust understanding of how species recover from these major disturbances. Here, we aim to determine whether source populations for recovery following large‐scale intense wildfires are derived from either in situ survival, or immigration from surrounding unburnt areas (ex situ). Secondly, we sought to determine whether habitat elements (e.g., logs) within the landscape facilitate in situ survival of small mammals during fires. Location: Grampians National Park, south‐eastern Australia. Methods: We used long‐term post‐fire small mammal monitoring to investigate sources of recovery for small mammals, and camera trapping and habitat surveys immediately following large intense wildfires to assess evidence for and drivers of post‐fire survival. Results: We found no relationship between distance to unburnt vegetation and the occurrence of any native species, suggesting that in situ survival is the probable mechanism for recovery of post‐fire mammal populations, compared with immigration from external unburnt areas. We also show that key habitat elements such as rocks and large trees were associated with the occurrence of several species immediately post‐fire, suggesting a role for these features in facilitating the survival of species during and following fire. Main conclusions: We present evidence for post‐fire recovery being driven by in situ survival. In situ survival is facilitated by small unburnt patches and habitat elements in burnt areas. These surviving individuals become the founders for subsequent post‐fire population recovery. Given that globally we are seeing increasingly frequent large‐scale wildfires driven by climate change, the capacity for in situ survival will help mitigate some of the fire‐related impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Interest in species distribution models ( SDMs) and related niche studies has increased dramatically in recent years, with several books and reviews being prepared since 2000. The earliest SDM studies are dealt with only briefly even in the books. Consequently, many researchers are unaware of when the first SDM software package ( bioclim) was developed and how a broad range of applications using the package was explored within the first 8 years following its release. The purpose of this study is to clarify these early developments and initial applications, as well as to highlight bioclim's continuing relevance to current studies. Location Mainly Australia and New Zealand, but also some global applications. Methods We outline the development of the bioclim package, early applications (1984-1991) and its current relevance. Results bioclim was the first SDM package to be widely used. Early applications explored many of the possible uses of SDMs in conservation biogeography, such as quantifying the environmental niche of species, identifying areas where a species might be invasive, assisting conservation planning and assessing the likely impacts of climate change on species distributions. Main conclusions Understanding this pioneering work is worthwhile as bioclim was for many years one of the leading SDM packages and remains widely used. Climate interpolation methods developed for bioclim were used to create the WorldClim database, the most common source of climate data for SDM studies, and bioclim variables are used in about 76% of recent published MaxEnt analyses of terrestrial ecosystems. Also, some of the bioclim studies from the late 1980s, such as measuring niche (both realized and fundamental) and assessing possible impacts of climate change, are still highly relevant to key conservation biogeography issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: In the western United States, sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) and salt desert shrublands are rapidly transitioning to communities dominated by exotic annual grasses, a novel and self‐reinforcing state that threatens the economic sustainability and conservation value of rangelands. Climate change is predicted to favour annual grasses, potentially pushing transitions to annual grass dominance into higher elevations and north‐facing aspects. We sought to quantify expansion of annual grass‐dominated vegetation communities along topographic gradients over the past several decades. Location: Our analysis focused on rangelands among three ecoregions in the Great Basin of the western United States, where several species of exotic annual grasses are widespread among shrub and perennial grass‐dominated vegetation communities. Methods: We used recently developed remote sensing‐based rangeland vegetation data to produce yearly maps of annual grass‐dominated vegetation communities spanning 1990–2020. With these maps, we quantified the rate of spread and characterized changes in the topographic distribution (i.e. elevation and aspect) of areas transitioning to annual grass dominance. Results: We documented more than an eightfold increase in annual grass‐dominated area since 1990, occurring at an average rate of >2,300 km2 year−1 (0.6% of the area of Great Basin rangelands). In 2020, annual grasses dominated approximately one‐fifth (>77,000 km2) of Great Basin rangelands. This rapid expansion was associated with a broadening topographic niche, with widespread movement into higher elevations and north‐facing aspects consistent with predicted effects of a warming climate. Main conclusions: More than a century after first appearing in the region, exotic annual grasses continue to proliferate and establish dominance in new environments across the Great Basin. Accelerated, strategic intervention is critically needed to conserve vulnerable sagebrush and salt desert shrub communities not yet heavily invaded. In this era of warming, future climate provides important context for selecting from among alternative management actions and judging long‐term prospects of success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in biodiversity conservation, but remain increasingly threatened by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) in conjunction with global climate change. The latter is modifying the distribution of the former, and the magnitude and direction of distributional changes are predicted to vary depending on species dispersal mode. Here, we address the question of whether clonality is expected to affect the future invasion pattern in PAs. Location: Worldwide. Time period: 1950–2100. Major taxa studied: 36 invasive alien plant species. Methods: We used ensembles of three species distribution models (GLM, GAM and Maxent) based on >70,000 occurrence records to project the distribution of 36 of the world's most invasive clonal and non‐clonal plants in >20,000 PAs. Projections were based on three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (low, medium and high) for 2080. Results: Climate change showed little impact on the global invasion pattern in PAs, and clonality showed little effect when all biomes were processed in concert. However, we discerned that the future invasion risk of clonal IAPS markedly increased in biomes located at high elevation and high latitude compared with non‐clonal IAPS, while the risk decreased in lower‐elevation tropical and subtropical biomes where asexual reproduction may be a less successful trait. We also showed that invasion hot spots overlapped with biodiversity hot spots and two realms (i.e. Nearctic and Palearctic), which calls for bridging the gap between invasion and conservation sciences and for more concerted management strategies. Main conclusions: We suggest that effective management of IAPS in PAs should consider in which biomes PAs are located as well as the reproductive traits of IAPS that are present or may become so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: In the sagebrush ecosystems of the western United States, identifying and enhancing habitat for large ungulates has become an increased priority for many management agencies, as indicated by Department of Interior Secretarial Order 3362. Estimating and understanding current and future habitat suitability and connectivity is important for successful long‐term management of these species. Location: Great Basin ecoregion, western USA. Methods: We focussed on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in the Great Basin ecoregion and used a variety of data sources (GPS telemetry, aerial surveys, observation locations) to develop multi‐scale ensemble habitat suitability models for the current and two future time steps (years 2050 and 2070). We also developed dynamic resistant kernels to model pronghorn connectivity. We combined the habitat suitability and connectivity outputs to derive and quantify changes in pronghorn habitat networks through time as well as identify areas that are resilient to climate and land use change. Results: We observed a 33.4% decline in highly suitable pronghorn habitat by 2070, assuming a high carbon emission scenario. Patches of suitable habitat reduced in number and size, whilst the distance amongst patches increased, indicating elevated importance of connectivity for pronghorn in the future. Future connectivity decreased to a greater degree than habitat suitability (47.2%–80.0%, depending on the pronghorn movement threshold used). We also found highly suitable habitat (70%) to be more resilient to climate change than areas of connectivity (10%–15%). Main conclusions: Our results show a loss of high‐quality pronghorn habitat and areas of connectivity with projected climate change. Connectivity was more sensitive than habitat, indicating connectivity may become a limiting factor for pronghorn populations in the Great Basin. These results can help managers prioritize resource investments and conservation efforts in areas most likely to be successful towards long‐term pronghorn conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]