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Aim: Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation. Location: China. Methods: Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network. Results: Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the 'areas worth exploring' and 6.91%–7.91% of the 'areas worth attention'. Main Conclusions: Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Land use is a main driver of biodiversity loss worldwide. However, quantifying its effects on global plant diversity remains a challenge due to the limited availability of data on the distributions of vascular plant species and their responses to land use. Here, we estimated the global extinction threat of land use to vascular plant species based on a novel integration of an ecoregion‐level species‐area model and the relative endemism richness of the ecoregions. Location: Global. Methods: First, we assessed ecoregion‐level extinction threats using a countryside species–area relationship model based on responses of local plant richness to land use types and intensities and a high‐resolution global land use map. Next, we estimated global species extinction threat by multiplying the relative endemism richness of each ecoregion with the ecoregion‐level extinction threats. Results: Our results indicate that 11% of vascular plant species are threatened with global extinction. We found the largest extinction threats in the Neotropic and Palearctic realms, mainly due to cropland of minimal and high intensity, respectively. Main Conclusions: Our novel integration of the countryside species–area relationship and the relative endemism richness allows for the identification of hotspots of global extinction threat, as well as the contribution of specific land use types and intensities to this threat. Our findings inform where the development of measures to protect or restore plant diversity globally are most needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to make predictions on how species distributions may change as a response to climatic change. To assess the reliability of those predictions, they need to be critically validated with respect to what they are used for. While ecologists are typically interested in how and where distributions will change, we argue that SDMs have seldom been evaluated in terms of their capacity to predict such change. Instead, typical retrospective validation methods estimate model's ability to predict to only one static time in future. Here, we apply two validation methods, one that predicts and evaluates a static pattern, while the other measures change and compare their estimates of predictive performance. Location: Fennoscandia. Methods: We applied a joint SDM to model the distributions of 120 bird species in four model validation settings. We trained models with a dataset from 1975 to 1999 and predicted species' future occurrence and abundance in two ways: for one static time period (2013–2016, 'static validation') and for a change between two time periods (difference between 1996–1999 and 2013–2016, 'change validation'). We then measured predictive performance using correlation between predicted and observed values. We also related predictive performance to species traits. Results: Even though static validation method evaluated predictive performance as good, change method indicated very poor performance. Predictive performance was not strongly related to any trait. Main Conclusions: Static validation method might overestimate predictive performance by not revealing the model's inability to predict change events. If species' distributions remain mostly stable, then even an unfit model can predict the near future well due to temporal autocorrelation. We urge caution when working with forecasts of changes in spatial patterns of species occupancy or abundance, even for SDMs that are based on time series datasets unless they are critically validated for forecasting such change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The synergy between human land use and climate change is accelerating the global decline of biodiversity. In the fragile Himalayas, this trend has a strong ecological impact on wildlife communities, and a better understanding is needed to discern changes in the mechanisms. This study aims to understand the effects of land use and climate change on the functional (FD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of mammal and bird communities across the land use gradient. Location: Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot, Bhutan. Methods: Mammal data were gathered from a camera trap survey and bird data from point counts. We used morphological and ecological traits of 45 mammal species and 336 bird species to construct functional trait space. We quantified FD and PD using standardized effect size of functional richness, functional dispersion, mean pairwise distance and mean nearest taxon distance. We used linear regression to evaluate the relationship between FD and PD and land use/climate variables. Results: The functional space of mammals was structured by body mass (small–large) and diet (herbivore–carnivore) as one major axis, and habitat breadth (generalist‐specialist) as the other, whereas bird functional space was structured by beak shape and size (large and long–small and short), body mass (small–large), foraging strata (canopy–ground) and diet (ectotherm–scavenge) along four axes. Land use (agriculture and road) negatively affected mammal FD, whereas both land use (tree cover and built‐up area) and climate (temperature and precipitation) affected PD, although the effects were highly variable. Climate (temperature) had a pronounced negative effect on bird FD while land use (agriculture, built‐up area and settlement) on PD. Main conclusions: The realized functional space of the vertebrate groups can be represented by different planes on which species are clumped around a small number of functional strategies. The loss of species at the edge of functional space is non‐random and could result in the loss of irreplaceable traits impacting long‐term ecological and evolutionary processes. Our study demonstrates the filtering effect of anthropogenic pressure and climate change on vertebrate FD and PD. However, the association with land use suggests the potential for ecosystem services (particularly by birds). Our findings reveal nuances of dimensions of biodiversity and provide novel insights into the structure and drivers of vertebrate assemblages in the eastern Himalayas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: This study aims to propose a conservation network that contains suitable habitat and connectivity corridors for mitigation due to habitat transformation and fragmentation of Yunnan snub‐nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus bieti). Further, we also aim to understand the effects of land‐use changes on the conservation network of R. bieti from 1990 to 2020. Location: Three Parallel Rivers Region (TPRR) on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) of China. Methods: We used a GIS‐based niche model to predict habitat suitability and extracted highly suitable habitats with an area above 30 km2 as potential core habitats (PCH patches). We designed a normalized importance value index (NIVI) to select PCH patches with the top 5 NIVI values designated as priority protection habitats (PPHs), and we selected a circuit model to build connectivity corridors among PPHs and five protected areas (PAs) from 1990 to 2020. Results: Unsuitable areas and lowly suitable habitats increased 69.3 and 46.8 km2, respectively, from 1990 to 2020. In particular, the area of PPHs dramatically decreased from 212.1 km2 in 1990 to 101.6 km2 in 2020. Average length of connectivity corridors among PCH patches and PPHs decreased from 75.9 km in 1990 to 56.8 km in 2020. Main conclusion: Habitat loss and fragmentation are common phenomena as evidenced by decreasing in highly and moderately suitable habitats of R. bieti and increasing in lowly suitable habitats and unsuitable areas. Five PAs are central to build a conservation network and to protect populations and wild groups of R. bieti. Land use changes the conservation network of R. bieti in the past 30 years. Based on re‐planning boundaries of PAs to incorporate all protection network of R. bieti, it has practical significance to re‐adjust the system of PAs that conservation network of R. bieti should be as fundamental management unit for PA development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) prescribes the quantification of species vulnerability based on three components: sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure. Such assessments should be performed through combined approaches that integrate trait‐based elements (e.g., measures of species sensitivity such as niche width) with correlative tools quantifying exposure (magnitude of changes in climate within species habitat). Furthermore, as land use alterations may increase climate impacts on biodiversity, CCVAs should focus on both climate and land use change effects. Unfortunately, most of such assessments have so far focused exclusively on exposure to climate change. Location: Himalaya. Methods: We evaluated the vulnerability of three otter species occurring in the Himalayan region, that is, Aonyx cinereus, Lutra lutra and Lutrogale perspicillata, to 2050 climate and land use change through the recently proposed Climate Niche Factor Analysis (CNFA) framework combined with Species Distribution Models. Results: Future climate and land use change will reduce (6%–15%) and shift (10%–18%) the geographical range of the three species in the Himalaya, with land use alterations exerting far more severe effects than climate change. Among vulnerability components, sensitivity played a greater role than exposure in determining the vulnerability of the otters. Specifically, the most specialist species, L. perspicillata, showed the highest vulnerability in comparison with the most generalist, L. lutra. Main conclusions: Our results underline how coupling climate and land use change components in CCVAs can generate diverging predictions of species vulnerability compared to approaches relying on climate change only. Moreover, intrinsic components, such as species sensitivity, proved significantly more important in determining vulnerability than extrinsic metrics such as habitat exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The effects of land use and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on plant species richness are typically studied in isolation. Here, we quantified the combined effects of these two pressures on terrestrial plant species richness at a 0.25º spatial resolution across the globe. Location: Global. Methods: We first used local monitoring and experimental data to determine the proportional changes in plant species richness in relation to different land‐use types and N addition levels according to a meta‐analytical approach. We then developed a new multi‐pressure species–area relationship (mp‐SAR) model to combine the site‐level responses resulting from the meta‐analyses with global land use and N deposition maps to calculate changes in plant species richness at a resolution of 0.25º across the globe. Results: Both pressures combined resulted in an average plant species richness decline of 26% (± 12% SD) across the grid cells. The combined impact was the largest in Europe, with an average decline of 34% (± 8%), and the smallest in South America (16% ± 11%). Overall, species declines due to land use were considerably larger (19% ± 11%) than declines due to N deposition (6% ± 6%). Main conclusions: Our new species–area model allows for systematic large‐scale assessments of the combined effects of multiple pressures on species richness based on easily retrievable input data. Overall, land use is a more important driver of plant species richness decline than N deposition, but N deposition may have considerable additional impact in specific regions of Europe, Asia and North America. These findings imply that conservation efforts should simultaneously tackle both pressures to ensure their effectiveness in preserving plant biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The identification of the mechanisms determining spatial variation in biological diversity along elevational gradients is a central objective in ecology and biogeography. Here, we disentangle the direct and indirect effects of abiotic drivers (climatic conditions, and land use) and biotic drivers (vegetation structure and food resources) on functional diversity and composition of bird and bat assemblages along a tropical elevational gradient. Location: Southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, East Africa. Methods: We counted birds and recorded bat sonotypes on 58 plots distributed in near‐natural and anthropogenically modified habitats from 700 to 4,600 m above sea level. For the recorded taxa, we compiled functional traits related to movement, foraging and body size from museum specimens and databases. Further, we recorded mean annual temperature, precipitation, vegetation complexity as well as the number of fruits, flowers, and insect biomass as measures of resource availability on each study site. Results: Using path analyses, we found similar responses of bird and bat functional diversity to the variation in abiotic and biotic drivers along the elevational gradient. In contrast, the functional composition of both taxa showed distinct responses to abiotic and biotic drivers. For both groups, direct temperature effects were most important, followed by resource availability, precipitation and vegetation complexity. Main Conclusions: Our findings indicate that physiological and metabolic constraints imposed by temperature and resource availability determine the functional diversity of bird and bat assemblages, whereas the composition of individual functional traits is driven by taxon‐specific processes. Our study illustrates that distinct filtering mechanisms can result in similar patterns of functional diversity along broad environmental gradients. Such differences need to be taken into account when it comes to conserving the functional diversity of flying vertebrates on tropical mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Two of the most important forces affecting biodiversity are land use change (LUC) and global climate change (GCC). Previous studies have modelled their impacts on species separately, and together, but few have done so for multiple species with dispersal limitations incorporated into the models. Location: Qinghai–Tibet plateau region. Methods: We integrate species distribution models plus a dispersal model to predict LUC and GCC impacts on the ranges of five species of pikas in the Qinghai–Tibet plateau region of China. Pikas are sensitive to land use and climate change and have limited dispersal abilities. Results: The predicted impacts of LUC and GCC on pikas vary between species as well as between LUC and GCC projections. Incorporation of dispersal limitations appreciably restricts the amount of colonized habitat. For all five species, the amount of habitat abandoned or colonized when LUC and GCC are modelled together is less than the sum of LUC and GCC modelled separately. Three of the five species experience a net increase in occupied habitat by 2080 relative to their current ranges under all modelled projections. However, relative to a "Dispersal Only" baseline scenario that assumes no environmental change but continued range expansion into suitable, unoccupied habitat, all five species suffer a net loss of occupied habitat by 2080 under some or all projections. Main conclusions: Predictions of future distributions of species based solely on LUC or GCC, as well as predictions assuming additive impacts, can be misleading. Inclusion of dispersal limitations in models markedly alters predicted future distributions of species. The use of a "Dispersal Only" scenario provides a different and perhaps more accurate way to gauge net impacts to species. Future work should consider incorporating all these parameters to better predict the impacts of LUC and GCC on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To explore spatiotemporal changes in Hyacinth Macaw Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus distribution and the impacts of land use change over 25 years, across its vast range in central/eastern South America. Location: Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, South America, covering almost 3 million km2. Methods: We use a novel, multi‐temporal species distribution model, to combine both year‐specific occurrence records and land use/cover data in a single model that is subsequently projected over a land cover time series. We investigate changes in geographic range over 25 years and potential drivers of range extent at multiple spatial scales (10 and 30 km) and time‐lags (current and 10 years previously). We also assess protected area coverage and impacts from degazettement within the remaining range and highlight priority areas to search for undiscovered populations. Results: The modelled range of the species increased by 75,000 km2 to over 500,000 km2 between 1995 and 2019, during which period agriculture and pasture increased by 600,000 km2 within the species' extent of occurrence. Habitat suitability was influenced most strongly by distribution of palms, forest cover and changes in pasture over 10 years and usually by predictors measured at larger spatial scales. Just 8% of the macaw's modelled range falls within protected areas, and more than 20,500 km2 of protected areas overlapping with the range have been degazetted in the last 40 years. We highlight key areas to search for undiscovered populations in under‐sampled and remote areas, especially led by community citizen science initiatives involving indigenous groups and protected area staff. Main conclusions: Novel modelling methods, combining multi‐temporal occurrence records and land cover data, appropriate for small sample sizes per year, have revealed habitat dynamics and changes to the range of this threatened species over 25 years. The method may have wide applicability for a range of species, including elusive and poorly studied species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Land‐use change leads to local climatic changes, which can induce shifts in community composition. Indeed, human‐altered land uses favour species able to tolerate greater temperature and precipitation extremes. However, environmental changes do not impact species uniformly across their distributions, and most research exploring the impacts of climatic changes driven by land use has not considered potential within‐range variation. We explored whether a population's climatic position (the difference between species' thermal and precipitation tolerance limits and the environmental conditions a population experiences) influences their relative abundance across land‐use types. Location: Global. Methods: Using a global dataset of terrestrial vertebrate species and estimating their realized climatic tolerance limits, we analysed how the abundance of species within human‐altered habitats relative to that in natural habitats varied across different climatic positions (controlling for proximity to geographic range edge). Results: A population's thermal position strongly influenced abundance within human‐altered land uses (e.g. agriculture). Where temperature extremes were closer to species' thermal limits, population abundances were lower in human‐altered land uses (relative to natural habitat) compared to areas further from these limits. These effects were generally stronger at tropical compared to temperate latitudes. In contrast, the influences of precipitation position were more complex and often differed between land uses and geographic zones. Mapping the outcome of models revealed strong spatial variation in the potential severity of decline for vertebrate populations following conversion from natural habitat to cropland or pasture, due to their climatic position. Main conclusions: We highlight within‐range variation in species' responses to land use, driven (at least partly), by differences in climatic position. Accounting for spatial variation in responses to environmental changes is critical when predicting population vulnerability, producing successful conservation plans, and exploring how biodiversity may be impacted by future land‐use and climate change interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate is often the sole focus of global change research in mountain ecosystems although concomitant changes in land use might represent an equally important threat. As mountain species typically depend on fine‐scale environmental characteristics, integrating land use change in predictive models is crucial to properly assess their vulnerability. Here, we present a modelling framework that aims at providing more comprehensive projections of both species' distribution and abundance under realistic scenarios of land use and climate change, and at disentangling their relative effects. Location: Switzerland. Methods: We used the ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus), a red‐listed and declining mountain bird species, as a study model. Based on standardized monitoring data collected across the whole country, we fitted high‐resolution ensemble species distribution models to predict current occurrence probability, while spatially explicit density estimates were obtained from N‐mixture models. We then tested for the effects of realistic scenarios of land use (land abandonment versus farming intensification) and climate change on future species distribution and abundance. Results: Occurrence probability was mostly explained by climatic conditions, so that climate change was predicted to have larger impacts on distribution and abundance than any scenarios of land use change. In the mid‐term (2030–2050), predicted effects of environmental change show a high spatial heterogeneity due to regional differences in climate and dominant land use, with farming intensification identified as an important threat locally. In the long term (2080–2100), climate models forecast a marked upward range shift (up to +560 m) and further population decline (up to −35%). Main conclusions: Our innovative approach highlights the spatio‐temporal heterogeneity in the relative effects of different environmental drivers on species distribution and abundance. The proposed framework thus provides a useful tool not only for better assessing species' vulnerability in the face of global change, but also for identifying key areas for conservation interventions at a meaningful scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Empirical studies have often reported parallel patterns of genetic and species diversity, but the strength and generality of this association, as well as its origin, are still debated. Particularly in human‐dominated landscapes with complex histories of land use histories, more complicated and partly diverging patterns have been observed. In this study, we examine whether species and genetic diversity correlate across grasslands with different levels of land use pressure and spatial differentiation in habitat quality and heterogeneity. Location: We selected eight extensively used (grazed, unfertilized) dry grasslands and eight intensively used (mown, fertilized) hay meadows in southeastern Germany. Methods: We used vegetation surveys and molecular markers of six widespread dry grassland and six hay meadow plant species to compare species and genetic alpha and beta diversity between the two grassland types. Results: Species diversity patterns expectedly showed higher alpha diversity, stronger spatial structure and less turnover in dry grasslands than in hay meadows. Neither of the corresponding genetic diversity patterns showed the same significant trends. Main conclusion: Our results question the idea that species and genetic diversity patterns will always show similar patterns. Likely, genetic and species diversity emerge partly from shared, partly from different processes, including the regional species pool, environmental heterogeneity, fragmentation and land use history. The practical conservation implication is that species and genetic diversity are not generally interchangeable. Looking at species and genetic patterns together, however, may eventually lead to a better understanding of the complex processes that shape the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To test the hypothesis that spatial variations in climate and land use explain the distribution and diversity of reptiles' ecological traits in a biodiversity hotspot of the Mediterranean basin. Location: French Mediterranean region. Taxon: Reptiles (25 species). Methods: We defined 288 species assemblages from 27,858 opportunistic occurrence records within 10 × 10 km square grid cells. Using a RLQ analysis, we investigated the distribution of nine ecological traits describing reptiles' reproductive, dietary and behavioural strategies along environmental gradients formed by 10 climatic, topographic and land‐use descriptors. After homogenizing survey effort through rarefaction, we used generalized additive models to assess variations in species richness and several measures of functional diversity and composition along these gradients. Results: Although ecological traits were not structured by environmental gradients at a species level, species richness and all measures of functional diversity varied nonlinearly with climate, elevation and secondarily land use. Species richness and body size peaked at intermediate altitudes, indicating a climatic transition zone between Mediterranean and medio‐European herpetofaunas. Conversely, functional diversity increased from Mediterranean plains, dominated by urbanization and agriculture, to higher elevations. These changes were associated with shifts towards less productive, more diurnal and more forest‐related species. Main conclusions: Species‐scale patterns are insufficient to assess regional variations in ecological traits in space. Our results support the hypothesis that climatic limitations in species' distributions, rather than environmental filtering, explain the taxonomic and ecological diversity of reptiles at a regional scale. Although secondary to climate, land abandonment has a strong structuring effect which may contribute to homogenize the composition of reptile assemblages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The protection of phylogenetic diversity has become a priority in conservation biology, but its achievement requires a detailed understanding of (a) hotspots of phylogenetic diversity on a management‐relevant scale and (b) the land use and climate factors determining local phylogenetic diversity. In this study, we identified spatial patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity and their environmental drivers. Location: Bavaria, Germany. Methods: To map the cross‐taxon phylogenetic diversity, we combined species distribution data obtained from country‐wide monitoring programmes and phylogenetic trees of birds, bats, dragonflies, grasshoppers and butterflies and calculated the phylogenetic diversity standardized by species richness. Generalized additive models were used to test the effects of land use and climate on phylogenetic diversity. We identified hotspots of phylogenetic diversity and assessed the extent to which established protected areas in Bavaria cover these hotspots. Results: High coverage by urban areas, arable land and water bodies negatively affected the phylogenetic diversity of most species groups. The phylogenetic diversity of birds increased with increasing meadow cover. Climate did not influence the phylogenetic diversity of the studied groups. We identified 10 regional hotspots that contained the highest standardized phylogenetic diversity across the examined species groups. There was a strong mismatch between hotspots of phylogenetic diversity among the species groups. Protected areas (national parks, natural reserves and areas of the Flora‐Fauna‐Habitat Directive) overlapped only to ~9.6% with these hotspots of standardized phylogenetic diversity. Main conclusions: Cross‐taxon approaches are required to identify hotspots of phylogenetic diversity at a management‐relevant scale. At regional scales, land use was more important than climate in determining phylogenetic diversity. Our study highlights the importance of involving land users into strategies for protecting phylogenetic diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To describe the population trend for European turtle doves in Spain. To identify favourable and unfavourable areas for the species and to test whether favourability or land use explain spatial variation in abundance change. Location: Mainland Spain. Methods: We used generalized linear models with extensive abundance data to describe population change for the European turtle dove across Spain. We used breeding distribution (presence/absence) data at 100 km2 resolution to model environmental favourability in relation to topo‐climatic and land use variables. Finally, we tested whether land use and favourability explained spatial variation in abundance trends. Results: The large Spanish turtle dove population declined by 37% between 1996 and 2018. Favourability was highest in the south, east and north–west of Spain and lowest in the north and at higher altitudes. Abundance trends were more negative in areas of lower environmental favourability and in localities dominated by arboreal habitats such as forests, "dehesas" (open agro‐forestry landscapes with scattered Quercus trees), transitional woodland shrubs or sclerophyllous vegetation (a mixture of sclerophyllous shrubs with some scattered trees). Trends were more positive in localities dominated by complex cultivation (small parcels of mixed crop types, including woody permanent crops like olive, or almond trees or vineyards). Main conclusions: Our study highlights a substantial recent decline in the numerically important turtle dove breeding population in Spain. Declines in abundance were more strongly associated with arboreal (forest and shrub areas) rather than agricultural habitats, highlighting an urgent need for further research into the ecology of this important quarry species in arboreal breeding habitats in southern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate and land‐use change, the greatest pressures on biodiversity, can directly influence each other. One key case is the impact land‐use change has on local climatic conditions: human‐altered areas are often warmer and drier than natural habitats. This can have multiple impacts on biodiversity and is a rapidly developing field of research. Here, we summarize the current state of understanding on the impact that local climatic changes have on biodiversity responses to land‐use change, in particular looking at whether human‐altered land uses favour species with certain climatic niches. Location: Global. Methods: We review studies that have identified links between species' climatic niches and the habitats/land‐use types they inhabit. We also critically discuss the methods used to explore this topic (such as the estimation of fundamental vs. realized climatic niches), identify key knowledge gaps by reference to related macroecological literature and make suggestions for further work. Results: Assemblages of vertebrate and invertebrate species in numerous human‐dominated land uses have been found to have higher proportions of individuals affiliated with higher temperatures and lower precipitation levels than assemblages within natural habitats. However, uncertainty surrounds the mechanisms that underlie these observed differences between communities across land‐use types, and it remains unexplored as to whether these trends differ geographically or taxonomically. Main conclusion: Shifts are being observed within human‐altered land uses to communities with, on average, warmer and drier climatic niches. A better understanding of the effects of local climatic changes associated with land‐use change will enhance our ability to predict future impacts on biodiversity, identify the species most at risk from interactions between climate and land‐use change and set up suitable management and conservation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Wetland loss and degradation threaten biodiversity to an extent greater than most ecosystems. Science‐supported responses require understanding of interacting effects of land use and climate change on wetland biodiversity. Location: Alberta, Canada. Methods: We evaluated how current climate, climate change (as a ghost of the past), land use and wetland water quality relate to aquatic macroinvertebrates and birds. Results: Climatic relationships and climate–land use interactions were observed on chironomid abundance, but not macroinvertebrate taxa richness (MTR) or odonate abundance, which responded to land use and water chemistry. Chironomid abundance was positively associated with cropland and negatively associated with total precipitation. Higher cropland cover and dissolved organic carbon synergistically interacted with total precipitation to affect chironomids. MTR was negatively related to salinity, yet greater area of non‐woody riparian vegetation attenuated salinity effects on MTR. Odonate abundance was negatively related to total phosphorus. Higher grassland cover also increased the negative relationship of total phosphorous to odonate abundance. Climatic relationships and climate–land use interactions were observed on bird species richness (BSR) and abundance of several bird functional groups. Higher BSR and abundances of several bird groups were positively related to average rainfall and greater warming temperatures over time. Area of non‐crop cover and wetlands was positively associated with most bird groups and BSR. Warming temperatures over time ameliorated the negative relationship of higher cropland or less shrubland on aerial insectivores and other bird groups. Main conclusions: Climate patterns and climate change are as important as land use pressures with stronger impacts on birds. Climate change was more influential than current climate and provided novel empirical evidence that progressively warmer, wetter conditions is benefiting some bird groups, including aerial insectivores, a group of conservation concern. Riparian vegetation ameliorated the negative impacts of climate and water quality gradients on MTR and could mitigate global change impacts in agricultural systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: China's Grain for Green Program (GFGP) is the largest reforestation programme in the world and has been operating since 1999. The GFGP has promoted the establishment of tree plantations over the restoration of diverse native forests. In a previous study, we showed that native forests support a higher species richness and abundance of birds and bees than do GFGP plantations and that mixed‐species GFGP plantations support a higher level of bird (but not bee) diversity than do any individual GFGP monocultures (although still below that of native forests). Here, we use metabarcoding of arthropod diversity to test the generality of these results. Location: Sichuan, China. Methods: We sampled arthropod communities using pan traps in the land cover types concerned under the GFGP. These land use types include croplands (the land cover being reforested under the GFGP), native forests (the reference ecosystem as the benchmark for the GFGP's biodiversity effects) and the dominant GFGP reforestation outcomes: monoculture and mixed‐species plantations. We used COI‐amplicon sequencing ("metabarcoding") of the arthropod samples to quantify and assess the arthropod community profiles associated with each land cover type. Results: Native forests support the highest overall levels of arthropod species diversity, followed by mixed‐species plantations, followed by bamboo and other monocultures. Also, the arthropod community in native forests shares more species with mixed‐species plantations than it does with any of the monocultures. Together, these results broadly corroborate our previous conclusions on birds and bees but show a higher arthropod biodiversity value of mixed‐species plantations than previously indicated by bees alone. Main conclusion: In our previous study, we recommended that GFGP should prioritize the conservation and restoration of native forests. Also, where plantations are to be used, we recommended that the GFGP should promote mixed‐species arrangements over monocultures. Both these recommendations should result in more effective protection of terrestrial biodiversity, which is an important objective of China's land‐sustainability spending. The results of this study strengthen these recommendations because our policy prescriptions are now also based on a dataset that includes over 500 species‐resolution taxa, ranging across the Arthropoda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Understanding the forces that drive range shifts in forest landscapes is imperative for predicting species distributions under anthropogenic climate and land use change. However, empirical studies exploring how these components jointly influence critical early life stages of mountain tree species across environmental gradients are scarce. We used the high mountain tree Polylepis australis as model species to investigate the relative importance of altitude and associated climatic conditions, land use for livestock and microsite characteristics on early life performance. Location: Córdoba Sierras, central Argentina. Methods: We set up an extensive in situ sowing experiment with a robust split‐plot design that integrated spatial scales ranging from 0.4 m2 subplots at the microsite level (associated with vegetative and microtopographic structures), to livestock exclosure and enclosure plots of several hectares, to an altitudinal gradient of 1,000 m. Components of early life performance were monitored across two subsequent growing seasons. Results: Microsite characteristics played a fundamental role in P. australis establishment, whereby interactions with altitude and/or land use suggested alternate mechanisms: facilitation (likely reduced desiccation) dominated at low altitude while at high altitude, abiotic stress (likely intensive frost and radiation) overruled any microsite effects. At mid‐altitude, benefits of competition release prevailed over facilitation and microsite effects gained importance under livestock presence. Inconsistencies between pre‐ and post‐emergence responses illustrated potential trade‐offs between beneficial and detrimental effects of microsite conditions upon performance throughout early life: a favourable location for seeds may abruptly turn adverse for seedlings. Main conclusions: We unravel how changes in altitude, anthropogenic disturbances and microsite characteristics jointly modulate P. australis performance across stages of early establishment. Such information is fundamental when categorizing specific microhabitats as "safe sites" for tree regeneration especially in mountain environments with high spatio‐temporal heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Maintaining biodiversity in the face of land use and climate change is a paramount challenge, particularly when distributions of many species remain incompletely known. Emerging technologies help address this data deficiency by facilitating the collection of spatially explicit data for multiple species from multiple taxa. In this study, we combine acoustic and visual sensor surveys to inform conservation and land use planning in an area experiencing rapid climate and land use change. Location: Mojave Desert, California, United States. Methods: We deployed camera traps and acoustic detectors at 210 sites between March and July 2016. We identified photographic detections of mammals and acoustic recordings of songbirds to the species level and used multispecies occupancy models to estimate and evaluate species' occupancy probabilities. We then extrapolated model results to the region and forecasted how projected climate and land use changes might affect species' occupancy probabilities in 50 years. Lastly, we identified areas with high conservation value (i.e., high relative species richness) now and in 50 years, and related the distributions of these areas to land use designations. Results: We detected 15 mammal and 68 songbird species. At the community level, occupancy decreased with increasing temperatures and distances to woodlands. We forecasted that occupancy probabilities and areas with high conservation value would decline in 50 years due to projected increases in maximum temperatures and identified that up to 43%, 24% and 27% of land designated for renewable energy development, recreation and military activities, respectively, encompassed these high value areas. Main conclusions: Cooler areas close to woodlands and water are of high conservation value to mammals and songbirds in the Mojave. These areas will become increasingly limited with changing climate, however, making their protection from human disturbance imperative. We encourage continued use of visual and acoustic sensors across large spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales as tools to inform land use and wildlife conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To assess the effectiveness of protected areas in two catchment scales (local and network) in conserving regionally common fluvial fishes using modelled species distributions. Location: Conterminous United States. Methods: A total of 150 species were selected that were geographically widespread, abundant, non‐habitat specialists and native within nine large ecoregions. Species distribution models were developed using boosted regression trees, and modelled distributions were assessed for protection status under two alternatives: lands strictly managed for biodiversity (Highly Restricted Use) and those allowing multiple uses (Multiple Use), with protection target levels (i.e., the amount of protected area required for protection) for local and network catchments being developed from ecoregion‐based urban and agricultural land use thresholds from fish responses. Results: Overall, less than 2% of fluvial catchments in the conterminous USA are meeting both local and network catchment protection target levels under the Highly Restricted Use alternative, whereas 16% of catchments met protection levels for the Multiple Use alternative, with protection largely concentrated in the western USA. For common native species distributions within ecoregions, only one species had >10% of streams meeting combined local and network catchment protection target levels under the Highly Restricted Use alternative, whereas 50 distributions (~14% of species distribution models) met this level under the Multiple Use alternative. Main conclusions: Even for fishes considered widespread and abundant, protection levels are lacking, particularly when considering only lands that are actively managed for biodiversity. Given the increasing intensification of anthropogenic activities and substantial uncertainty associated with climate change, considering the conservation status for all species, including those currently considered common, is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Changes in climate and land use are modifying biodiversity worldwide. Yet it remains unclear how both drivers interact to structure communities and determine patterns in taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity at local scales. We focused on bird diversity and asked: how do precipitation and forest cover gradients interactively structure these elements of avian diversity? Location: Guanacaste, North‐western Costa Rica. Methods: We quantified changes in the abundance and composition of bird communities along independent gradients of regional precipitation, local forest cover and landscape forest cover that serve as proxies for climate drying and habitat conversion. We conducted point counts at 150 sites and statistically accounted for imperfect detection to test how environmental variation shaped community‐wide diversity metrics. Results: We found that the three dimensions of diversity diverged in their responses to environmental gradients. Specifically, species richness increased linearly with precipitation, reached maximum values with intermediate tree cover at local scales and peaked at high levels of landscape tree cover. While phylogenetic diversity did not vary strongly across any gradient, functional diversity increased monotonically with both local and landscape‐level tree cover. Maximum values of functional diversity only occurred in large patches of forest where the tree cover was >75% at both local and landscape scales. Contrary to our expectations, we did not detect significant interactions between precipitation and tree cover gradients on any metric of local bird diversity. Main conclusions: Our findings suggest that taxonomic diversity was more sensitive to environmental gradients than functional and phylogenetic diversity. The lack of synergies between precipitation and forest cover gradients on alpha diversity, at least in this system, simplifies the prospects of predicting future biodiversity change at local scales as our results suggest that climate change and land use act independently of one another. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The anthropogenic climate change and land use change are considered two of the main factors that are altering biodiversity at the global scale. An evaluation that combined both factors can be relevant to detect which species could be the most vulnerable and reveal the regions of highest stability or susceptibility to biodiversity. We aimed to: (a) assess the effect of climate change and land use on the distribution of Cerrado plant species for different countries where they occur, (b) evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) to safeguards species under different greenhouse–gas (GHG) emissions and land use scenarios, and (c) estimate the vulnerability of species based on protection effectiveness and habitat loss. Location: Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay. Methods: We modelled the distribution of 1,553 plant species of Cerrado and evaluated species range loss caused by present and future land use and two GHG for 2050 and 2080. We assessed species vulnerability combining the representativeness of species within conservation units with the loss of species' ranges outside PAs. Results: We found that climate change and land use will cause great damage to Cerrado flora by 2050 and 2080, even under optimistic conditions. The greatest impacts of land use will occur in the regions where the greatest richness will be harboured. The conservation of the species will be seriously affected since the PA network is not as effective in safeguarding them under current or future conditions. Main conclusions: The low level of protection together with the losses caused by the advance of agricultural lands will lead most species being highly vulnerable. Due to the distinct impacts of climate and land use over the three countries, conservation strategies should be implemented at transboundary and national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Conserving stream biota could require strategies that preserve habitats conveying resistance to ecological impacts of changing land use and climate. Retrospective analyses of species' responses to anthropogenic disturbances can inform such strategies. We developed a hierarchical framework to contrast environmental conditions underlying persistence versus extirpation of an imperilled stream fish, Candy Darter (Etheostoma osburni), over decades of changing land use. The decline of E. osburni may broadly represent the challenge of conserving sensitive freshwater species in intensively used upland environments. Location: New River drainage, Appalachian Mountains, USA. Methods: We surveyed fish and habitat in historically occupied sites to identify population refugia, and used multivariate and spatial analyses to address three questions: (a) what are the environmental correlates of refugia? (b) are the pathways by which land use impacts instream habitat constrained by catchment‐ and/or segment‐scale features? and (c) are E. osburni distributional dynamics spatially structured and explained by fine sediment and warm stream temperatures? Results: We confirmed a recently localized distribution similar to other upland species, marked by at least seven extirpations from streams throughout E. osburni's southern range. Catchment‐scale features primarily constrained land use and finer‐scale habitat, leading to either extirpations or population‐supporting refugia defined by features at multiple scales. Refugium habitats contained cooler temperatures and less fine sediment. Rare mismatches between persistence and habitat suitability were explained by network location, suggesting unmeasured environmental gradients and/or dispersal contributed to distributional dynamics. Main conclusions: We provided insight at multiple spatial scales into how aquatic species' distributions become fragmented and localized. Our results demonstrate that natural landscape heterogeneity imparts spatially variable resistance of sensitive species to intensive land uses. By recognizing the scale‐specific features that buffer populations from extirpation, conservation strategies could be tailored to protect naturally occurring refugium habitats and focus restoration in systems where such habitats are broadly lacking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Understanding how habitat loss and overhunting impact large carnivores is important for broad‐scale conservation planning. We aimed to assess how these threats interacted to affect jaguar habitat (Panthera onca) between 1985–2013 in the Gran Chaco, a deforestation hotspot. Location: Gran Chaco ecoregion in Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia. Methods: We modelled jaguar habitat change from 1985–2013 using a time‐calibrated species distribution model that uses all occurrence data available for that period. We modelled habitat as a function of resource availability and hunting threats, which allowed us to separate core (high resource availability and low hunting threat), refuge (low resources but safe), attractive sink (high resources but risky) and sink (low resources and risky) habitat for 1985, 2000 and 2013. Results: Jaguar core areas contracted by 33% (82,400 km2) from 1985–2013, mainly due to an expansion of hunting threats. Sink and attractive sink habitat covered 58% of the jaguar range in 2013 and most confirmed jaguar kill sites occurred in these areas. Furthermore, habitat loss and hunting threats co‐occurred in 29% of jaguars' range in 2013. Hunting threats also deteriorated core areas within protected areas, but 95% of all core areas loss occurred outside protected lands. About 68% of the remaining core areas in 2013 remained unprotected, mostly close to international borders. Main conclusions: Our study highlights the synergistic effects that habitat loss and hunting threats exert on large carnivores, even inside protected areas, emphasizing the need to consider the geography of threats in conservation planning. Our results also point to the importance of areas along international borders as havens for wildlife and thus the urgent need for cross‐border planning to prevent the imminent extinction of jaguars from the Chaco. Opportunities lie in reducing jaguar mortality over the widespread attractive sinks, particularly in corridors connecting core areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Land use change, such as urbanization and intensification of agricultural practices, poses major threats for biodiversity. We examined whether the composition of freshwater species differs between landscapes dominated by urban, agricultural or more natural structures in a region with a long history of landscape transformation. We determined the differences and characteristics of the dragonfly fauna in relation to major land use categories. We particularly focused on urban land use, as it generally induces a high level of landscape transformation. Location: Germany. Methods: We used distribution data of dragonflies derived from a citizen science database, which was compiled for the German distribution atlas. To analyse whether different land use categories are associated with distinct species compositions, we performed the classification method random forest. Results: Based on dragonfly abundance per grid cell, we identified distinct land use‐related assemblages that were separated by two gradients, that is, the level of transformation and a gradient from open land to forest. In particular, urban landscapes possessed a distinct species composition with specific species, all of which were opportunistic and supported by warm climate. They also comprised significantly higher α‐diversity than intensive agricultural landscapes. Similar values of γ‐diversity over all land use categories implied a countrywide homogenized dragonfly fauna, which is probably caused by historic land use. Main conclusions: Our results indicate that land use is a relevant driver for the composition of freshwater species at the landscape scale. Urban landscapes maintain species diversity better than agricultural landscapes, but they modify the species composition. Additional research on the effects of land use change is required to understand species responses and predict future distributions in a changing world in order to plan sustainable conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Primary forests have high conservation value but are rare in Europe due to historic land use. Yet many primary forest patches remain unmapped, and it is unclear to what extent they are effectively protected. Our aim was to (1) compile the most comprehensive European‐scale map of currently known primary forests, (2) analyse the spatial determinants characterizing their location and (3) locate areas where so far unmapped primary forests likely occur. Location: Europe. Methods: We aggregated data from a literature review, online questionnaires and 32 datasets of primary forests. We used boosted regression trees to explore which biophysical, socio‐economic and forest‐related variables explain the current distribution of primary forests. Finally, we predicted and mapped the relative likelihood of primary forest occurrence at a 1‐km resolution across Europe. Results: Data on primary forests were frequently incomplete or inconsistent among countries. Known primary forests covered 1.4 Mha in 32 countries (0.7% of Europe's forest area). Most of these forests were protected (89%), but only 46% of them strictly. Primary forests mostly occurred in mountain and boreal areas and were unevenly distributed across countries, biogeographical regions and forest types. Unmapped primary forests likely occur in the least accessible and populated areas, where forests cover a greater share of land, but wood demand historically has been low. Main conclusions: Despite their outstanding conservation value, primary forests are rare and their current distribution is the result of centuries of land use and forest management. The conservation outlook for primary forests is uncertain as many are not strictly protected and most are small and fragmented, making them prone to extinction debt and human disturbance. Predicting where unmapped primary forests likely occur could guide conservation efforts, especially in Eastern Europe where large areas of primary forest still exist but are being lost at an alarming pace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change is expected to have major impacts on terrestrial biodiversity at all ecosystem levels, including reductions in species‐level distribution and abundance. We aim to test the extent to which land use management, such as setting‐aside forest from production, could reduce climate‐induced biodiversity impacts for specialist species over large geographical gradients. Location: Sweden. Methods: We applied ensembles of species distribution models based on citizen science data for six species of red‐listed old‐forest indicator fungi confined to spruce dead wood. We tested the effect on species habitat suitabilities of alternative climate change scenarios and varying amounts of forest set‐aside from production over the coming century. Results: With 3.6% of forest area set‐aside from production and assuming no climate change, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to increase in response to maturing spruce in set‐aside forest. However, overall habitat suitabilities for all six species were projected to decline under climate change scenario RCP4.5 (intermediate–low emissions), with even greater declines projected under RCP 8.5 (high emissions). Increasing the amount of forest set‐aside to 16% resulted in significant increases in overall habitat suitability, with one species showing an increase. A further increase to 32% forest set‐aside resulted in considerably more positive trends, with three of six species increasing. Main conclusions: There is interspecific variation in the importance of future macroclimate and resource availability on species occurrence. However, large‐scale conservation measures, such as increasing resource availability through setting aside forest from production, could reduce future negative effects from climate change, and early investment in conservation is likely to reduce the future negative impacts of climate change on specialist species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: Past land use legacy effects—extinction debts and immigration credits—might be particularly pronounced in regions characterized by complex and dynamic landscape change. The aim of this study was to evaluate how current woody plant species distribution, composition and richness related to historical and present land uses. Location: A smallholder farming landscape in south‐western Ethiopia. Methods: We surveyed woody plants in 72 randomly selected 1‐ha sites in farmland and grouped them into forest specialist, generalist and pioneer species. First, we investigated woody plant composition and distribution using non‐metric multidimensional scaling. Second, we modelled species richness in response to historical and current distance from the forest edge. Third, we examined diameter class distributions of trees in recently converted vs. permanent farmland. Results: Historical distance was a primary driver of woody plant composition and distribution. Generalist and pioneer species richness increased with historical distance. Forest specialists, however, did not respond to historical distance. Only few old individuals of forest specialist species remained in both recently converted and permanent farmlands. Main conclusions: Our findings suggest that any possible extinction debt for forest specialist species in farmland at the landscape scale was rapidly paid off, possibly because farmers cleared large remnant trees. In contrast, we found substantial evidence of immigration credits in farmland for generalist and pioneer species. This suggests that long‐established farmland may have unrecognized conservation values, although apparently not for forest specialist species. We suggest that conservation policies in south‐western Ethiopia should recognize not only forests, but also the complementary value of the agricultural mosaic—similar to the case of European cultural landscapes. A possible future priority could be to better reintegrate forest species in the farmland mosaic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Life history traits and range size are key correlates of genetic diversity in trees. We used a standardized sampling protocol to explore how life history traits and range size relate to the magnitude, variance and structuring (both between-and within-population) of genetic diversity in Neotropical tree species. Location: The Neotropics Methods: We present a meta-analysis of new population genetic data generated for 23 Neotropical tree species (=2,966 trees, 86 populations) across a shared and broad geographic area. We compared established population genetic metrics across these species (e.g., genetic diversity, population structure, fine-scale genetic structure), plus we estimated the rarely used variance in genetic diversity among populations. We used a multivariate, maximum likelihood, multimodel inference approach to explore the relative influence of life history traits and range size on patterns of neutral genetic diversity. Results: We found that pioneer and narrow range species had lower levels but greater variance in genetic diversity-signs of founder effects and stronger genetic drift. Animal-dispersed species had lower population differentiation, indicating extensive gene flow. Abiotically dispersed and pioneer species had stronger fine-scale genetic structure, suggesting restricted seed dispersal and family cohort establishment. Main conclusions: Our multivariable and multispecies approach allows ecologically relevant conclusions, since knowing whether one parameter has an effect, or one species shows a response in isolation, is dependent on the combination of traits expressed by a species. Our study demonstrates the influence of ecological processes on the distribution of genetic variation in tropical trees, and will help guide genetic resource management, and contribute to predicting the impacts of land use change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Humans threat the populations of tree species by overexploitation, deforestation, land use change, and climate change. We present a novel threat assessment at intraspecific level to support the conservation of genetic resources of 80 socioeconomically viable tree species in South America. In this assessment, we evaluate the threat status of Ecogeographic Range Segments (ERSs). ERSs are groups of populations of a specific species in a certain ecological zone of a particular grid cell of a species' geographic occupancy. Methods: We used species location records to determine the species distributions and species-specific ERSs. We distinguished eight threat situations to assess the risk of extirpation of the ERSs of all 80 species. These threat situations were determined by large or little tree cover, low or high human pressure, and low or high climate change impact. Available layers of tree cover and threats were used to determine the levels of fragmentation and direct human pressure. Maxent niche modelling with two Global Circulation Models helped determining climate change impact by the 2050s. Results: When all 80 species are considered, in total, 59% of the ERSs are threatened by little tree cover or high human pressure. When climate change is also considered, then 71-73% of the ERSs are threatened. When an increased risk of extirpation of populations outside protected areas is considered, then 84-86% of the ERSs are threatened. Seven species warrant special attention because all their ERSs are threatened across their whole distribution in South America: Balfourondendron riedelianum, Cariniana legalis, Dalbergia nigra, Handroanthus pulcherrimus, Pachira quintana, Prosopis flexuosa, and Prosopis pallida. Conclusions: Our results confirm the urgency to set up a regional action plan for the conservation of tree genetic resources in South America. With this threat assessment, we aim to support governments and organizations who are taking up this task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The conversion of old-growth tropical forests into human-modified landscapes threatens biodiversity worldwide, but its impact on the phylogenetic dimension of remaining communities is still poorly known. Negative and neutral responses of tree phylogenetic diversity to land use change have been reported at local and landscape scales. Here, we hypothesized that such variable responses to disturbance depend on the regional context, being stronger in more degraded rain forest regions with a longer history of land use. Location: Six regions in Mexico and Brazil. Methods: We used a large vegetation database (6,923 trees from 686 species) recorded in 98 50-ha landscapes distributed across two Brazilian and four Mexican regions, which exhibit different degrees of disturbance. In each region, we assessed whether phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities were related to landscape-scale forest loss, the percentage of shade-intolerant species (a proxy of local disturbance) and/or the relatedness of decreasing (losers) and increasing (winners) taxa. Results: Contrary to our expectations, the percentage of forest cover and shade-intolerant species were weakly related to phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities in all but one region. Loser species were generally as dispersed across the phylogeny as winner species, allowing more degraded, deforested and species-poorer forests to sustain relatively high levels of evolutionary (phylogenetic) diversity. Main conclusion: Our findings support previous evidence indicating that traits related to high susceptibility to forest disturbances are convergent or have low phylogenetic signal. More importantly, they reveal that the evolutionary value of disturbed forests is (at least in a phylogenetic sense) much greater than previously thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: As a result of their ecological traits, woodpeckers (Picidae, Aves) are highly sensitive to forest cover change. We explored the current land cover in areas of high species richness of woodpeckers to determinate regions where urgent conservation actions are needed. In addition, we identified woodpecker species that are sensitive to forest loss and that have high levels of human habitat modification and low levels of protection (through protected areas) in their distribution ranges. Location: Global. Methods: We joined available range maps for all extant 254 woodpecker species with information of their conservation status and tolerances to human habitat modifications and generated a richness map of woodpecker species worldwide. Then, we associated this information (the richness pattern and individual species’ maps) with land cover and protected areas (PAs) maps. Result: We found that the foremost woodpecker species richness hotspot is in Southeast Asia and is highly modified. At the second species richness hotspot in the eastern Andes, we observed a front of deforestation at its southern extreme and a greater deforested area in its northern extreme but most of its area remains with forest coverage. At the species level, 17 species that are sensitive to forest modification experience extensive deforestation and have low extents of PAs in their ranges. Main conclusions: The most diverse woodpecker hotspots are mostly occupied by human‐modified landscapes, and a large portion of the species there avoids anthropogenic environments. The level of representation of woodpecker species in PAs is low as a global general pattern, although slightly better in Asia. Our global analysis of threats to woodpecker from land use patterns reiterates the urgent conservation needs for Southeast Asian forests. Finally, based on our results, we recommend a re‐evaluation for inclusion in the Red List of five woodpecker species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: Invasive species occurrence is often related to the anthropogenic context of a given area. Quantifying the effects of roads is of particular interest as roads are a major vector for invasion. Our objective was to further quantify the effects of roads on forest plant invasion through a macroscale, high‐resolution investigation to assist effective invasion control and mitigation. Location: Eastern United States. Methods: Using invasive plant data from 23,039 forest inventory plots in 13 ecological provinces, we employed logistic regression to relate the odds of invasion to distance from a road, with adjustments for broadscale differences attributable to ecological provinces, and local scale differences in productivity, forest fragmentation and land use. Results: The overall proportion (P) of invaded plots was 0.58 (0.65 for plots within 50 m of a road), and the highest odds (P/1 − P) of invasion were found in relatively more productive, fragmented forest in landscapes with more than 10% agriculture or developed land cover. Wald chi‐square statistics indicated the best predictor of the odds of invasion was ecological province, followed by land use, productivity, forest fragmentation and distance from a road. Depending on the province, the adjusted odds of invasion decreased by up to 23% (typically 4%–10%) per 100 m distance from a road. The adjusted probability of invasion approached zero in only three provinces, for the least productive, least fragmented forest that was at least 2,000 m from a road in landscapes with less than 10% agricultural or developed land cover. Main conclusions: In the eastern United States, the existence of a nearby road is less important than the landscape context associated with the road. A purely road‐mediated effect has little practical meaning because anthropogenic activities and roads are pervasive and confounded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: Climate and land use change are among the most important threatening processes driving biodiversity loss, especially in the tropics. Although the potential impacts of each threat have been widely studied in isolation, few studies have assessed the impacts of climate and land cover change in combination. Here, we evaluate the exposure of a large mammalian clade, bats, to multiple scenarios of environmental change and dispersal to understand potential consequences for biodiversity conservation. Location: Mexico. Methods: We used ensemble species distribution models to forecast changes in environmental suitability for 130 bat species that occur in Mexico by 2050s under four dispersal assumptions and four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We identified regions with the strongest projected impacts for each scenario and assessed the overlap across scenarios. Results: The combined effects of climate and land use change will cause an average reduction in environmental suitability for 51% of the species across their range, regardless of scenario. Overall, species show a mean decrease in environmental suitability in at least 46% of their current range in all scenarios of change and dispersal. Climate scenarios had a higher impact on species environmental suitability than land use scenarios. There was a spatial overlap of 43% across the four environmental change scenarios for the regions projected to have the strongest impacts. Main conclusions: Combined effects of future environmental change may result in substantial declines in environmental suitability for Mexican bats even under optimistic scenarios. This study highlights the vulnerability of megadiverse regions and an indicator taxon to human disturbance. The consideration of combined threats can make an important difference in how we react to changes to conserve our biodiversity as they pose different challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Recent studies have mapped the global hotspots hosting high phylogenetic diversity ( PD), but not the regions where this diversity is under threat due to human land use. This is because, to date, it is not clear how much PD is lost as species of a given taxon go extinct. The aim of this study was to identify the global regions projected to suffer the highest PD loss due to human land use in the near future. Location Global. Methods We demonstrate a novel approach combining countryside species-area relationship, species-specific evolutionary distinctiveness ( ED) scores and a newly derived strong linear relationship between the cumulative ED loss and PD loss through pruning simulations on global evolutionary trees of mammals, birds, and amphibians under random species loss, to project global land use-driven phylogenetic diversity loss in 804 terrestrial ecoregions and 175 countries. We also allocate the total projected PD loss to different land use types (agriculture, forestry, grazing or urbanization) in each region to pinpoint the major drivers. Results For the three taxa combined, we project a total loss of 9,472 million years ( MY) of evolutionary history due to all land uses in all countries: 1,541 MY of mammal PD is at stake, 3,336 MY of bird PD and 4,595 MY of amphibian PD. Agriculture is responsible for loss of 1,579 MY; pasture 1990 MY, forestry 5,381 and urbanization 522. Land use in Indonesia, Colombia, India, Papua New Guinea, Madagascar and Philippines is projected to cause the most loss of PD. Main conclusions Through the integrated approach, we can now project PD loss associated with species extinctions under alternative land conversion scenarios in a region. Overall, the results on hotspots and land use drivers may inform individual nations in designing regional strategies to achieve the international biodiversity and sustainability targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Land-use change typically goes hand in hand with the introduction of exotic species, which mingle with indigenous species to form novel assemblages. Here, we compare the functional structure of indigenous and exotic elements of ground-dwelling arthropod assemblages across four land-uses of varying management intensity. Location Terceira Island (Azores, North Atlantic). Methods We used pitfall traps to sample arthropods in 36 sites across the four land-uses and collated traits related to dispersal ability, body size and resource use. For both indigenous and exotic species, we examined the impact of land-uses on trait diversity and tested for the existence of non-random assembly processes using null models. We analysed differences in trait composition among land-uses for both indigenous and exotic species with multivariate analyses. We used point-biserial correlations to identity traits significantly correlated with specific land-uses for each element. Results We recorded 86 indigenous and 116 exotic arthropod species. Under high-intensity land-use, both indigenous and exotic elements showed significant trait clustering. Trait composition strongly shifted across land-uses, with indigenous and exotic species being functionally dissimilar in all land-uses. Large-bodied herbivores dominated exotic elements in low-intensity land-uses, while small-bodied spiders dominated exotic elements in high-intensity land-uses. In contrast, with increasing land-use intensity, indigenous species changed from functionally diverse to being dominated by piercing and cutting herbivores. Main conclusions Our study revealed two main findings: first, in high-intensity land-uses, trait clustering characterized both indigenous and exotic elements; second, exotic species differed in their functional profile from indigenous species in all land-use types. Overall, our results provide new insights into the functional role of exotic species in a land-use context, suggesting that, in agricultural landscape, exotic species may contribute positively to the maintenance of some ecosystem functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Gradients in climate and land use occur simultaneously in many of the Earth's ecosystems and thus collectively impact most ecological communities. Albeit climate and land use have potentially interacting effects on ecological communities that may exacerbate or ameliorate their individual effects, little is known about the effect of the climate-land use interaction on community composition. A better understanding of the interaction between climate and land use is essential to predict the impacts of environmental change on ecological communities. Location Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Methods We quantified the community composition of bird species and feeding guilds on 64 study plots of 13 different habitat types along an elevational gradient from 870 to 4550 m a.s.l. We partitioned the variation in pairwise beta-diversity (βcc) of birds and its two additive components, abundance differences (βabu) and replacement (β−3), among the effects of temperature, land-use intensity and their interaction. Results Temperature and land use had synergistic effects on beta-diversity (βcc) of birds; that is, the combination of high temperature and high land-use intensity led to higher beta-diversity than expected from the sum of both individual effects. While temperature explained more of the variation in abundance differences (βabu), land use explained more of the variation in the replacement of individuals between species and feeding guilds (β−3), indicating that different processes drove avian beta-diversity along the temperature and land-use gradients. Main Conclusions Our results challenge previous studies that investigated the effects of climate and land use in isolation because disregarding their synergistic interaction underestimates the joint effect of climate and land use on biodiversity. A consideration of the synergy between climate and land use is essential for adequate predictions of the impact of global change on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Land-use change is considered a major threat to biodiversity. Species-area relationships ( SARs), which are often used to assess biodiversity changes, assume that land use leads to the loss of natural habitats. Yet, in regions with long land-use histories, such as Europe, many species have persisted in, or even depend on, landscapes heavily influenced by land use (i.e., countryside landscapes). Here, we develop a SAR model that considers the conservation value of such landscapes, and we assess how land use affects plant-species richness at broad spatial scales. Location Countries in the European Union ( EU-27). Methods We first predicted species richness at a 50 × 50 km resolution using a biome-specific SAR and used these predictions as a baseline estimate for (semi-)natural vegetation. Then, we parameterized a countryside SAR (sensu Pereira & Daily, 2006) with habitat affinities derived from a meta-analysis. We estimated changes in species richness as the difference in predictions between the two SAR models. Results At a 50 × 50 km resolution, predicted species richness has increased by up to 184 species due to land use in 73% of all cells across Europe compared to the (semi-)natural baseline. However, our model also highlights regions with dramatic species losses (in 25% of cells, losses of up to 900 species) due to an unfavourable combination of land-use changes. Averaged across all cells, we predict a loss of 26 plant species ( SD = 119, median = 49). Main conclusions Adopting the countryside SAR model to broader spatial scales overcomes the unrealistic assumptions of previous approaches about generally negative effects of land use. Our approach predicts how local-scale land-use effects translate to biodiversity changes at broader geographic scales. Thus, it allows land-use scenarios being studied in relation to their trade-offs with biodiversity and can be used to target conservation efforts across large areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To propose and compare priority sites for conservation and restoration of woody plants under diverse climate and land use scenarios, considering socio-economic costs, presence of protected areas and distribution of forest remnants. Location The Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche modelling to estimate geographical distributions for 2,255 species under current and future climate scenarios, which we analysed in relation to spatially explicit land use projections, maps of forest remnants derived from remote sensing and socio-economic variables for each municipality within the Atlantic Forest region. We identified spatial priorities that complement the current network of protected areas under three different prioritization scenarios: (1) conservation of existing forest remnants only; (2) conservation of remnants followed by restoration of degraded habitat; and (3) unconstrained actions, in which management location is not defined a priori. We compared our results under different levels of land protection, with targets of 10%, 17% and 20% of the Atlantic Forest extent. Results Current forest remnants cover only 12% of the Atlantic Forest, so targets of 17% and 20% were achieved only through active restoration. Targets of 17% and 20% captured most species and represented on average 26%-34% of species' distributions. The spatial pattern of degraded habitats negatively affected representation of biodiversity and implied higher costs and reduced efficiency of planning. We did not observe major differences between conservation prioritizations based on contrasting climate change scenarios. Main conclusions Protection of forest remnants alone will not suffice to safeguard woody plant species under climate and land use changes; therefore, restoration actions are urgently needed in the Atlantic Forest. With integrated management actions and multicriterion nationwide planning, reaching the 17% of land protection of Aichi biodiversity targets will constitute an important step towards protecting Atlantic Forest biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Biological invasions are today the second-largest global threat for biodiversity. Once introduced, exotic plant species can modify ecosystem composition, structure and dynamics, eventually driving native species to local extinction. Among the groups of organisms, most likely to be directly affected by exotic invasive plants are herbivorous insects, such as butterflies, which strongly depend on plants throughout their life cycle. However, it remains unclear whether invasive plants have a negative or a positive effect on butterfly diversity at a landscape scale. Location Switzerland. Methods Using an extensive inventory (393 sites across Switzerland) of both butterfly and invasive plants, we explore the impact of 31 invasive black listed plant species on local butterfly richness. We further identify each butterfly species' response to invasive plants (i.e. positive, neutral or negative) and analyse the functional and phylogenetic characteristics of these different groups of species. Results Our results indicate that butterfly richness negatively correlates with an increase in invasive plant richness. When studying the individual response of each butterfly species to the number of invasive plants, we found that no single butterfly is profiting from invasive plant species, while 28 butterfly species (24%) suffer from the presence of invasive plants. We further show that the species negatively affected are on average less mobile than the unaffected species and that they are phylogenetically clustered. Main conclusions Our results present evidences of the influence of invasive species on other trophic levels and interaction networks. We further highlight that a lack of management efforts for mitigating invasive plant impacts threatens specific sections of the functional and phylogenetic diversity of butterflies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Understanding the scales over which land use affects animal populations is critical for conservation planning, and it can provide information about the mechanisms that underlie correlations between species distributions and land use. We used a citizen science database of anuran surveys to examine the relationship between road density, land use and the distribution of frogs and toads across spatial scales and regions of the United States. Location Eastern and Central United States. Methods We compiled data on anuran occupancy collected from 1999 to 2013 across 13 states in the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program, a citizen science survey of calling frogs. These data were indexed to measures of land use within buffers ranging from 300 m to 10 km. Results The negative effects of road density and development on anuran richness were strongest at the smallest scales (300-1000 m), and this pattern was consistent across regions. In contrast, the relationships of anuran richness to agriculture and forest cover were similar across local scales but varied among regions. Richness had a negative relationship with agriculture/forest loss in the Midwest but a positive relationship with agriculture in the Northeast. Anuran richness was more closely related to primary/secondary road density than to rural road density, and the negative effects of larger roads increased at smaller scales. Individual species differed in the scales over which roads and development affected their distributions, but these differences were not closely related to either body size or movement ability. Main conclusions This study further refines our understanding of the relationship between roads and amphibian populations and highlights the need for research into the specific mechanisms by which roads affect amphibians. Additionally, we find that relationships between land use and species richness can differ substantially across regions, demonstrating that one should use caution in generalizing from one region to another, even when species composition is similar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To assess the changes in the elevational distribution of 151 butterfly species over a period of 22 years (1988-2011) and investigate whether these changes are related to regional global warming and land use change. Location: Sierra de Juarez, Oaxaca, Mexico. Methods: Butterflies were surveyed at eight sites spanning elevations ranging from 117 m to 3000 m in 1988, and the same sites were resurveyed in 2010- 2011. Changes in the elevational distribution of species and the structure and composition of species assemblages were compared between surveys. The results were interpreted in the context of land use and climate change in the region. Results: Butterfly species had shifted their distributions uphill by approximately 145 m on average. Significantly more species (78) showed an uphill shift in their distributions than a downhill shift (32 species). Species occurring above 1000 m elevation had shifted their distribution to an extent that matched the range shift expected under the recorded temperature changes. However, for species occurring below 1000 m elevation, and for all species combined, uphill range shifts were significantly less than expected based solely on the increase in temperature. Land use change over the study period was more pronounced at low elevations, and these butterfly assemblages are now dominated by generalist species. Main conclusions: Our results represent the first concrete evidence of shifts in elevation distribution of a large Neotropical butterfly community, attributable to increased regional temperatures. At high elevations, land use change is minimal and climate change appears to be the main driver of changes to distributions and assemblages, and the main conservation threat. However, extensive land use change has been the main driver of changes to butterfly communities at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amazonian forests support high biodiversity and provide valuable ecosystem services. Unfortunately, these forests are under extreme pressure from land use change and other anthropogenic disturbances. A recent study combined data from an Amazon-wide network of forest inventory plots with spatially explicit deforestation models to predict that by 2050, 36% or 57% of species will be 'globally threatened', as defined by IUCN Red List criteria, due to deforestation under Increased-Governance or Business-As-Usual scenarios, respectively. It was also predicted that the number of threatened species will drop by 29-44% if no deforestation occurs within protected areas. However, even the best-protected areas of the Amazon may still be susceptible to the effects of climate change and rising temperatures. To illustrate the potential dangers of climate change for Amazonian parks, we calculated the percentage of land area within all officially designated protected areas of tropical South America that will or will not have future temperature analogs under various scenarios of temperature change and park connectivity. We show that depending on the rate of warming and degree of connectivity, about 19-67% of protected areas will not have any temperature analogs in the near future (2050s). These results help to emphasize that protected areas are not immune to the effects of climate change and that large portions of Amazonian protected areas include 'disappearing climates'. In the face of these disappearing climates, the biggest determinant of many species' extinction risks may be their ability to migrate through nonprotected habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Changes in climate and land use practices have been found to affect animal populations in different parts of the world. These studies have typically been conducted during the breeding season, whereas the non-breeding season (hereafter 'winter') has received much less attention. Changes in regional winter abundances could be caused by changes in overall population sizes and/or redistribution of populations. We tested these mechanisms for terrestrial winter bird population changes in Northern Europe and explored the role of climate change and species habitat preference. Location: The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland. Methods: We used winter bird counts from four countries conducted annually between 15 December and 20 January in 1980/1981-2013/2014. We report national population trends for 50 species for which a trend could be calculated in at least three of the countries. We analysed country-specific population growth rates in relation to species' climatic summer and winter niches, habitat preference and migratory behaviour. Results: Species breeding in colder (typically northern) areas showed more negative winter population trends than species breeding in warmer areas. Regional winter population trends were negatively correlated with characteristics of their winter climatic niche: populations in the colder part of their winter distribution increased in abundance, whereas populations in the warmer part of their winter distribution decreased. Woodland species tended to do better than farmland species. Migratory behaviour did not explain variation in population trends. Main conclusions: The generally decreasing winter population trends of colddwelling breeding species probably reflect the general decline in population sizes of these species. In contrast, increasing winter population trends for populations in the colder parts of the winter distribution indicate a redistribution of wintering individuals towards the north-east. Both these patterns are likely caused by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Understanding the impact of land use change within assemblages is fundamental to mitigation policies at local and regional scale. Here, we aim to quantify how site-level terrestrial assemblages are responding to land use change in Colombia a mega-diverse country and to project future biodiversity under different scenarios of land use change associated with climate change policies. Location: Colombia (northern South America). Methods: We collated original biodiversity data from 17 publications (285 sites) that examined how human impact affects terrestrial biodiversity in Colombia. From each site we estimated compositional intactness (i.e. compositional similarity to undisturbed sites). We fitted generalized linear mixed-effects models to estimate how these measures of local biodiversity vary across land use habitats. Using space-for-time substitution, we applied our estimates to hindcast biodiversity changes since 1500 and project future changes under climate change policies of the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results: Assemblages in urban, cropland and pasture sites were compositionally very different from those in primary vegetation. We infer that average compositional intactness has been reduced by 18% across Colombia to date, with strong regional variation. The best RCP scenario for future biodiversity is GCAM-RCP4.5, a path that favours the expansion of secondary forests under a strong carbon market; while the worst is MESSAGE-RCP8.5, 'the business-as-usual' scenario. Main conclusions: Land use change has driven an increasing change in the composition of ecological assemblages in Colombia. By 2095, the implementation of carbon markets policy of climate change from GCAM-RCP4.5 could mitigate these changes in community composition. In contrast, the business-asusual scenario MESSAGE-RCP8.5 predicts a steep community change placing the quality of ecosystems at risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Understanding species distributions is fundamental to effective conservation planning. Data deficiency is common among rare and imperiled species and poses challenges for conservation planning because status assessments become reliant on scant data that can introduce bias. We used occupancy modelling to evaluate support for commonly accepted, but previously untested, hypotheses regarding factors that drive the occurrence of an imperiled and data-deficient amphibian, the eastern hellbender ( Cryptobranchus alleganiensis). We investigated the potential for mismatch between areas likely to be identified as having high conservation priority based on the common assumption that hellbender occurrence corresponds to areas of high forest cover and those identified by well-informed models. Location South-west Virginia, USA. Methods We conducted triplicate surveys to detect C. alleganiensis in 49 stream reaches stratified across a land use gradient and two major drainages. We used a Bayesian multimodel framework to investigate factors associated with C. alleganiensis occupancy. We used the best-performing models to predict probability of occupancy at the scale of a 50-m stream reach throughout our study area and identify areas most likely to be occupied. Results Occurrence of C. alleganiensis was explained primarily by differences in underlying geology and topography (i.e. physiography) and negative effects of agriculture were only modestly supported. Best-performing models suggested ~ 35% of our study area was occupied. Our findings suggest that predictions from models informed by presence-only data and current land use would likely underestimate C. alleganiensis occupancy by as much as one-third and incorrectly classify over half the currently occupied area to be of little importance to the species. Main conclusion Our study highlights the potential danger of assuming that the distribution of data-deficient species can be approximated using untested, but commonly accepted, species-habitat associations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Cultural landscapes and their biodiversity are threatened by land use changes and the abandonment of traditional farming techniques. Conceptualizing cultural landscapes as social-ecological systems can be useful to develop strategies for biodiversity conservation. First, this study aimed to develop a typology of social-ecological units based on land use patterns. Second, we sought to relate this typology to biophysical and socio-demographic drivers as well as to biodiversity outcomes. Location Southern Transylvania (Romania). Methods We developed a typology of villages in Southern Transylvania based on land use data. We collected species richness data for plants, butterflies and birds, modelled local richness data for each village and related these values to the village typology. Also, we related village typology to biophysical and socio-demographic variables. Results We identified four types of villages that showed distinct species richness patterns. Bird richness was highest in forest-dominated and mixed-land use villages; plant richness was highest in pasture-dominated villages; and butterfly richness was high in arable-dominated, mixed-land use and pasture-dominated villages. The four types of villages had distinct topographic characteristics and also differed in terms of ethnic composition, migration patterns and geographic location. Drawing on a combined understanding of social-ecological variables, different conservation actions could be prioritized for each of the four village types. Main conclusions Applying social-ecological approaches has the potential to inform biodiversity conservation in cultural landscapes. Social-ecological typologies can improve our understanding of complex systems and provide useful input for the development of effective strategies for biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]