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Aim: To explore spatiotemporal changes in Hyacinth Macaw Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus distribution and the impacts of land use change over 25 years, across its vast range in central/eastern South America. Location: Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, South America, covering almost 3 million km2. Methods: We use a novel, multi‐temporal species distribution model, to combine both year‐specific occurrence records and land use/cover data in a single model that is subsequently projected over a land cover time series. We investigate changes in geographic range over 25 years and potential drivers of range extent at multiple spatial scales (10 and 30 km) and time‐lags (current and 10 years previously). We also assess protected area coverage and impacts from degazettement within the remaining range and highlight priority areas to search for undiscovered populations. Results: The modelled range of the species increased by 75,000 km2 to over 500,000 km2 between 1995 and 2019, during which period agriculture and pasture increased by 600,000 km2 within the species' extent of occurrence. Habitat suitability was influenced most strongly by distribution of palms, forest cover and changes in pasture over 10 years and usually by predictors measured at larger spatial scales. Just 8% of the macaw's modelled range falls within protected areas, and more than 20,500 km2 of protected areas overlapping with the range have been degazetted in the last 40 years. We highlight key areas to search for undiscovered populations in under‐sampled and remote areas, especially led by community citizen science initiatives involving indigenous groups and protected area staff. Main conclusions: Novel modelling methods, combining multi‐temporal occurrence records and land cover data, appropriate for small sample sizes per year, have revealed habitat dynamics and changes to the range of this threatened species over 25 years. The method may have wide applicability for a range of species, including elusive and poorly studied species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The anthropogenic climate change and land use change are considered two of the main factors that are altering biodiversity at the global scale. An evaluation that combined both factors can be relevant to detect which species could be the most vulnerable and reveal the regions of highest stability or susceptibility to biodiversity. We aimed to: (a) assess the effect of climate change and land use on the distribution of Cerrado plant species for different countries where they occur, (b) evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) to safeguards species under different greenhouse–gas (GHG) emissions and land use scenarios, and (c) estimate the vulnerability of species based on protection effectiveness and habitat loss. Location: Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay. Methods: We modelled the distribution of 1,553 plant species of Cerrado and evaluated species range loss caused by present and future land use and two GHG for 2050 and 2080. We assessed species vulnerability combining the representativeness of species within conservation units with the loss of species' ranges outside PAs. Results: We found that climate change and land use will cause great damage to Cerrado flora by 2050 and 2080, even under optimistic conditions. The greatest impacts of land use will occur in the regions where the greatest richness will be harboured. The conservation of the species will be seriously affected since the PA network is not as effective in safeguarding them under current or future conditions. Main conclusions: The low level of protection together with the losses caused by the advance of agricultural lands will lead most species being highly vulnerable. Due to the distinct impacts of climate and land use over the three countries, conservation strategies should be implemented at transboundary and national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To propose and compare priority sites for conservation and restoration of woody plants under diverse climate and land use scenarios, considering socio-economic costs, presence of protected areas and distribution of forest remnants. Location The Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche modelling to estimate geographical distributions for 2,255 species under current and future climate scenarios, which we analysed in relation to spatially explicit land use projections, maps of forest remnants derived from remote sensing and socio-economic variables for each municipality within the Atlantic Forest region. We identified spatial priorities that complement the current network of protected areas under three different prioritization scenarios: (1) conservation of existing forest remnants only; (2) conservation of remnants followed by restoration of degraded habitat; and (3) unconstrained actions, in which management location is not defined a priori. We compared our results under different levels of land protection, with targets of 10%, 17% and 20% of the Atlantic Forest extent. Results Current forest remnants cover only 12% of the Atlantic Forest, so targets of 17% and 20% were achieved only through active restoration. Targets of 17% and 20% captured most species and represented on average 26%-34% of species' distributions. The spatial pattern of degraded habitats negatively affected representation of biodiversity and implied higher costs and reduced efficiency of planning. We did not observe major differences between conservation prioritizations based on contrasting climate change scenarios. Main conclusions Protection of forest remnants alone will not suffice to safeguard woody plant species under climate and land use changes; therefore, restoration actions are urgently needed in the Atlantic Forest. With integrated management actions and multicriterion nationwide planning, reaching the 17% of land protection of Aichi biodiversity targets will constitute an important step towards protecting Atlantic Forest biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past decades, Brazil made important progress in the conservation of forest ecosystems. Non-forest ecosystems ( NFE), in contrast, have been neglected, even though they cover large parts of the country and have biodiversity levels comparable to forests. To avoid losing much of its biodiversity and ecosystem services, conservation and sustainable land use policies in Brazil need to be extended to NFE. A strategy for conservation of Brazil's NFE should encompass the following elements: (1) creation of new large protected areas in NFE; (2) enforcement of legal restrictions of land use; (3) extension of subsidy programs and governance commitments to NFE; (4) improvement of ecosystem management and sustainable use in NFE; and (5) improvement of monitoring of land use change in NFE. If Brazil managed to extend its conservation successes to NFE, it not only would contribute significantly to conservation of its biodiversity, but also could take the lead in conservation of NFE world-wide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To analyse spatial trade-offs in conservation of mammals, considering benefits of biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic costs. Location Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We built ecological niche models ( ENMs) for 154 mammals inhabiting the cerrado. We combined model projections to produce consensus maps of species' distributions for three types of models (envelope, statistical and machine-learning models). We used these range summaries as input data in spatial prioritization analyses. We compared six conservation scenarios, considering human population density, land cost, anthropogenic land use, political willingness to act and the distribution of species using trade-off analyses. We complemented the current network of protected areas, aiming to achieve a target of 17% of land protection in the cerrado. Results Species-rich sites coincide with regions with high human population, high land cost, high anthropogenic land use and diverse levels of political willingness to act. We found a significant change in spatial priorities when we included socioeconomic and political dimensions in analyses: top-priority sites moved north, reduced by 68% potential conservation conflicts with human population, reduced by 72% the total monetary cost of actions and reduced by 68% conflict with other anthropogenic land uses. It also increased by 80% the beneficial effect of political willingness to act. Main conclusions Our results reinforce the idea that using only biological criteria for proposing spatial conservation priorities can undermine conservation plans given increases in socioeconomic and political conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Most of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil occurs in fragments of various sizes. Previous studies indicate that forest fragmentation affects fruit-feeding butterflies. Conservation strategies that seek to preserve organisms that are distributed in high-fragmented biomes need to understand the spatial distribution of these organisms across the landscape. In view of the importance of understanding the fauna of these forest remnants, the objective of the present work is to investigate the extent to which the diversity of this group varies across spatial scales ranging from within-forest patches to between landscapes. Location South America, south-eastern Brazil, São Paulo State. Methods We used bait traps to sample fruit feeding butterflies at 50 points in 10 fragments in two different landscapes during a period of 12 months. Total species richness and Shannon index were partitioned additively in diversity at trap level, and beta diversity was calculated among traps, among forest patches, and between landscapes. We used permutation tests to compare these values to the expected ones under the null hypothesis that beta diversity is only a random sampling effect. Results There was significant beta diversity at the smallest scale examined; however, the significance at higher scales depends on the diversity measurement used. Beta diversity with Shannon index was smaller than expected by chance among fragments, whereas species richness was not. Among landscapes, only beta diversity in richness was higher than expected by chance. Main conclusions The results observed occur because there is great variability in species composition among forest patches in the same landscape, changing this diversity even though the communities are formed from the same pool of species. At the largest scale evaluated (between landscapes), these pattern changes and differences in beta diversity in richness were detectable. This difference is probably caused by the presence of rare species. Thus, a conservation strategy that seeks to preserve as many species as possible per unit of area in high-fragmented biomes should give priority to protecting fragments in different landscapes, rather than more fragments in the same landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]